Oregon ForestryOregon ForestryWhere in the World are we Where in the World are we

Going?Going?

Presented to the Oregon Board of ForestryPresented to the Oregon Board of ForestryJuly 19, 2002July 19, 2002

Tillamook, ORTillamook, ORby by

Hal SalwasserHal SalwasserDean, College of ForestryDean, College of ForestryOregon State UniversityOregon State University

Forest Sustainability FirstForest Sustainability First

Lose the forest, lose all the associated valuesLose the forest, lose all the associated values

WaterWater

Forests are headwaters of the nation: Forests are headwaters of the nation: 1/3 of land area; 2/3 of runoff; 1/3 of land area; 2/3 of runoff;

groundwater recharge; groundwater recharge; best water from any land use best water from any land use (SOER, USFS)(SOER, USFS)

Fish, Wildlife, BiodiversityFish, Wildlife, Biodiversity

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Meg

ajo

ule

s

Wood -- our “greenest” Wood -- our “greenest” resourceresource

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Lit

ers

x 1,

000

Wood products use less energy and water

Energy Water

Steel and wood compared in construction of a 10’ x 100’ wallSteel and wood compared in construction of a 10’ x 100’ wall

Wood in our livesWood in our lives

Wood in global energyWood in global energy

70% of cooking, heating, industrial energy in developing 70% of cooking, heating, industrial energy in developing countriescountries

Non-timber forest productsNon-timber forest products

Seeds, Berries, Fruits Medicinals/herbals Fungi Florals Fish and wildlife Arts/crafts woods

Climate Climate Forests store ~ 45% of the Forests store ~ 45% of the

carboncarbonin terrestrial ecosystemsin terrestrial ecosystems

IPCC 2000IPCC 2000

Livelihoods, Recreation, HeritageLivelihoods, Recreation, Heritage

One condition of forests for many purposes?

Ecosystem services Products Cultural links Uses Risk reduction

Or, many conditions depending on purpose?

Forests cover large areas Forests cover large areas of the world’s landof the world’s land

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20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nt

of

lan

d a

rea

WorldWorld USUS CACA OROR WAWA MEME

But not as much as they But not as much as they used to coverused to cover

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10

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30

40

50

Fo

res

t a

s p

erc

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f la

nd

are

a

Est. Pre-ag. Current

WorldWorldUSUS

OROR

Agricultural/urban conversionsAgricultural/urban conversions

Water diversions, damsWater diversions, dams

Forest managementForest management

Livestock grazingLivestock grazing

RecreationRecreation

Climate changeClimate change

People transform forestsPeople transform forests(and have for >10,000 years)(and have for >10,000 years)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Mill

ion

Acr

esAnnual Forest Trends Annual Forest Trends

1990-20001990-2000

TropicsTropics

Non-tropicsNon-tropics

GlobalGlobal

FAO 2001: country surveys + pan-tropical remote sensingFAO 2001: country surveys + pan-tropical remote sensing

World population growth is World population growth is the driverthe driverBillion people

024681012

Less forest; more people; Less forest; more people; more demandsmore demands

World forest decline:World forest decline: - 20 to 30% since 1600 bp- 20 to 30% since 1600 bp - 2.4% since 1990- 2.4% since 1990

Wood use up 40% since 1960: 1.5 bcm/yrWood use up 40% since 1960: 1.5 bcm/yr Wood use to rise < 66% by 2050: 2 - 2.5 bcmWood use to rise < 66% by 2050: 2 - 2.5 bcm Need for all forest benefits growing as wellNeed for all forest benefits growing as well

WaterWater Biodiversity conservationBiodiversity conservation Carbon storesCarbon stores Recreation, subsistence, cultural usesRecreation, subsistence, cultural uses

~ 25-30% of global industrial wood use crosses ~ 25-30% of global industrial wood use crosses international boundary; affects local pricesinternational boundary; affects local prices

US imports 30-35% of lumber usedUS imports 30-35% of lumber used Forest industries integrating globallyForest industries integrating globally Carbon, wood, biodiversity are global issuesCarbon, wood, biodiversity are global issues US choices impact world’s forests: US choices impact world’s forests:

Import woodImport wood Export jobsExport jobs Import unemploymentImport unemployment Export environmental effectsExport environmental effects Import invasive speciesImport invasive species Store carbonStore carbon

Globalization of forest issuesGlobalization of forest issues

To sustain or restore forest health, To sustain or restore forest health, productivity, and diversity … productivity, and diversity …

We must manage We must manage growthgrowth

And we must manage forests to And we must manage forests to sustain multiple values, meet the sustain multiple values, meet the

needs of people for forest needs of people for forest resources and forest servicesresources and forest services

U.S. in a Global ContextU.S. in a Global Context

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Population

Land Area

Forest Land

Reserved Forest

Timber Inventory

Ind. Wood Production

Ind. Wood Use

Source: USDA Forest Service 2002Source: USDA Forest Service 2002

U.S. Forest OwnershipU.S. Forest Ownership

NIPF48%

NFS20%

Industry9%

Other Public23%

Forests are diverse, will be managed Forests are diverse, will be managed for many different purposesfor many different purposes

Sustainable forest management sustains Sustainable forest management sustains

forests first, then varies by forest type, forests first, then varies by forest type,

goals/roles, ownership, locationgoals/roles, ownership, location

It treats each forest differently; approach, It treats each forest differently; approach,

vital signs depend on goals, vital signs depend on goals,

capabilities:capabilities:

A.A. Production Value (PVF)Production Value (PVF)

B.B. Multiple Value (MVF)Multiple Value (MVF)

C.C. Conservation Value (CVF)Conservation Value (CVF)

D.D. Residential Value (RVF)Residential Value (RVF)

Sustainable Forestry is BroadSustainable Forestry is Broad

Goal: Most efficient wood/fiber productionGoal: Most efficient wood/fiber production Challenges:Challenges:

Increase wood yield: 2X to 5X over naturalIncrease wood yield: 2X to 5X over natural Reduce environmental impact, footprintReduce environmental impact, footprint Improve product qualityImprove product quality Produce high return on investmentProduce high return on investment Maintain social license to operateMaintain social license to operate

Much of world’s wood will come from this Much of world’s wood will come from this forest useforest use

A. Production Value ForestA. Production Value Forest

Goal: Meet various landowner objectivesGoal: Meet various landowner objectives

Challenges:Challenges:

Optimize joint productionOptimize joint production

Sustain desired diversity of environmental, Sustain desired diversity of environmental,

economic, community conditions and results, economic, community conditions and results,

i.e., risk, forest health, vitality, productivityi.e., risk, forest health, vitality, productivity

Produce multiple benefits at reasonable costsProduce multiple benefits at reasonable costs

B. Multi-Value ForestB. Multi-Value ForestMost of the world’s accessible forest will Most of the world’s accessible forest will

be in integrated managementbe in integrated management

C. Conservation Value ForestC. Conservation Value Forest

Parks, reserves, wilderness, special Parks, reserves, wilderness, special areas for natural, cultural valuesareas for natural, cultural values

Goal: Perpetuate native ecosystems, species, Goal: Perpetuate native ecosystems, species, nature’s processes, cultural heritagenature’s processes, cultural heritage Challenges:Challenges:

Manage people to reduce impactsManage people to reduce impacts Manage forests to restore “naturalness”Manage forests to restore “naturalness” Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive

species, pollution, vulnerabilitiesspecies, pollution, vulnerabilities Align management actions, costs and Align management actions, costs and benefits for sustainabilitybenefits for sustainability

Goals: Goals: Connect people with forest resourcesConnect people with forest resources Pleasant neighborhoodsPleasant neighborhoods Resource conservationResource conservation Minimize sprawlMinimize sprawl Safety to life and property, riskSafety to life and property, risk Wildlife habitatsWildlife habitats

D. Residential Value ForestD. Residential Value Forest

Global Forests 2000 2050Global Forests 2000 2050

2000:2000: Industrial wood use = ~ 1.5 bcmIndustrial wood use = ~ 1.5 bcm

U.S. produces ~ 25%; uses ~33%U.S. produces ~ 25%; uses ~33%

~ 2 cm/ha/yr ave. yield from natural forests~ 2 cm/ha/yr ave. yield from natural forests

~ 3.9 bil ha: ~ 95% not planted; ~ 5% planted~ 3.9 bil ha: ~ 95% not planted; ~ 5% planted

~ 10% “protected” in nature reserves~ 10% “protected” in nature reserves

Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001

Global Forests 2000 2050Global Forests 2000 20502050:2050:

Industrial wood use = 2 – 2.5 bcm; Industrial wood use = 2 – 2.5 bcm; + 33 to 66%+ 33 to 66% ~ 5 - 50 cm/ha/yr yield in planted forests~ 5 - 50 cm/ha/yr yield in planted forests Production Value ForestsProduction Value Forests < 10% of total; yields < 10% of total; yields

~ 50 – 70% of industrial wood demand~ 50 – 70% of industrial wood demand Multi-Value ForestsMulti-Value Forests < 40%; yields rest of < 40%; yields rest of

industrial wood demand, other uses/valuesindustrial wood demand, other uses/values Conservation Value ForestsConservation Value Forests for ~ 50% of for ~ 50% of

world’s forests possible due to above world’s forests possible due to above strategiesstrategies

Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001

Forest Plantations 2000Forest Plantations 2000

Asia62%

Europe17%

No/Cent America10%

So America5%

Africa4%

Oceania2%

Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001

Plantations as % of Total Plantations as % of Total ForestForest

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Asia

Europe

No/Cent America

Oceania

Africa

So America

Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001

Natural Forests 2000Natural Forests 2000

Europe (Russia)27%

So America24%

Africa17%

No/Cent America15%

Asia12%

Oceania5%

Source: FAO 2001Source: FAO 2001

% of Global Reserved % of Global Reserved ForestsForests

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

So Am

eric

a

No/Cen

t Am

eric

a

Africa

Europe

Asia

Oce

ania

Source: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VISource: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VI

% of Region’s Forests % of Region’s Forests ReservedReserved

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

No/Cen

t Am

eric

a

So Am

eric

a

Africa

Oce

ania

Asia

Europe

Source: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VISource: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VI

Roles for U.S. Forests?Roles for U.S. Forests?25% of global wood supply; ~20% of protected forests25% of global wood supply; ~20% of protected forests Industrial forest: ~ 68 mil ac; ~ 9%

NIPF/Family forest: ~ 363 mil ac; ~ 48%

Other public forest: ~ 170 mil ac; ~ 23%

National Forest: ~ 147 mil ac; ~ 20%

Answers depend on global forces, policy Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and choices made in federal, state, tribal and

private sectors and on individual private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)behaviors (incl. risk attitude)

Roles for Oregon Forests?Roles for Oregon Forests?5% of national wood supply; ~33% in IUCN Class i-vi5% of national wood supply; ~33% in IUCN Class i-vi

Industrial forest roles: ~ 5.8 mil ac; ~ 21% Family forest roles: ~ 4.6 mil ac; ~ 16% State forest roles: ~ 0.9 mil ac; ~ 3% Tribal & County forest roles: ~ 0.5 mil ac; ~ 2% Federal forest roles: ~ 16 mil ac; ~ 57%

Answers depend on global forces, policy Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and choices made in federal, state, tribal and

private sectors and on individual private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)behaviors (incl. risk attitude)

Policy ChallengesPolicy Challenges Determine roles/policies for stands, units, Determine roles/policies for stands, units,

ownerships re ownerships re sustainability goalssustainability goals

Policies/incentives to blend, nest patterns Policies/incentives to blend, nest patterns

for different roles at landscape scale for different roles at landscape scale

Balance risks, costs, benefits of optionsBalance risks, costs, benefits of options

Set targets for and track indicators of Set targets for and track indicators of

success by role and scalesuccess by role and scale Oregon BenchmarksOregon Benchmarks

Sustainable Forest Management IndicatorsSustainable Forest Management Indicators

Align Management to PurposeAlign Management to Purpose

PVFPVF MVFMVF CVFCVF

IndustryIndustry

FamilyFamily

TribalTribal

StateState

FederalFederal

**

** = inclusions of biotopes or special habitats will occur in these types= inclusions of biotopes or special habitats will occur in these types

RVFRVF

Landscape-scale IntegrationLandscape-scale Integration

SustainableSustainableForestForest

ManagementManagement

PVFPVF

MVFMVF

CVFCVF

Forest managers:Forest managers: SFM, various goals SFM, various goals Producers:Producers: deliver quality, price, value deliver quality, price, value Marketers:Marketers: full disclosure full disclosure Consumers:Consumers: make wise choices make wise choices Teachers:Teachers: be informed, tell full story be informed, tell full story Scientists:Scientists: R&D, inform policy choices R&D, inform policy choices Governments:Governments: set policies, assure equity set policies, assure equity Interest groups:Interest groups: honest advocacy honest advocacy Social contracts:Social contracts: invest for future vitality invest for future vitality

Shared ResponsibilitiesShared Responsibilities

NIPF’s Critical RoleNIPF’s Critical Role

0

50

100

150

Nat.Forest

OtherPublic

Industry NIPF

Million acres by site class(annual growth in cu ft/ac)

1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20

U.S. Forest Use Class by U.S. Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997

0100200300400500600700800

Mil

lio

n A

cres

NFS OtherPublic

Industry NIPF Total U.S.

Forestland Timberland Reserved Other

Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001

Western Forest Use Class by Western Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997

050

100150200250300350400

Mil

lio

n A

cres

NFS OtherPublic

Industry NIPF WesternU.S.

Forestland Timberland Reserved Other

Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001

Eastern Forest Use Class by Eastern Forest Use Class by Owner 1997Owner 1997

050

100150200250300350400

Mil

lio

n A

cres

NFS OtherPublic

Industry NIPF EasternU.S.

Forestland Timberland Reserved Other

Source: USDA FS 2001Source: USDA FS 2001

Sustain Forests First: keep forestlands in Sustain Forests First: keep forestlands in forest usesforest uses

Give forest sector incentives, knowledge, Give forest sector incentives, knowledge, and tools to sharpen performance on and tools to sharpen performance on goals, stay competitivegoals, stay competitive

Lift yields, productivity, valueLift yields, productivity, value Reduce risks, improve environmental Reduce risks, improve environmental

performanceperformance Maintain social license for all forms of Maintain social license for all forms of

sustainable forest managementsustainable forest management

Sustainable Forestry GoalsSustainable Forestry Goals

Is this a healthy forest?Is this a healthy forest?

Is it sustainable?Is it sustainable?

It all depends on purpose and context

Hardin’s Filters Against FollyHardin’s Filters Against Folly Literacy: words matter -- align words w/ meaningLiteracy: words matter -- align words w/ meaning

Numeracy: numbers matter -- quantify accuratelyNumeracy: numbers matter -- quantify accurately

Ecolacy: relationships matter -- know the linkagesEcolacy: relationships matter -- know the linkages

Key policy question: And then what?Key policy question: And then what?

What do we get?What do we get?

What do we give up?What do we give up?

Impacts somewhere else, sometime later?Impacts somewhere else, sometime later?

Is there a better way?Is there a better way?

Extreme ideologies are Extreme ideologies are not constructivenot constructive

Markets Markets know bestknow best

Nature knows Nature knows bestbest Government Government

knows bestknows best

Scientists Scientists know bestknow best

I know I know bestbest

Locals Locals know bestknow best

The law is clearThe law is clear

CommonCommonGroundGround

Only 1 wayOnly 1 way

Collaboration and Collaboration and respect are constructiverespect are constructive

Common GroundCommon Ground

Markets Markets are a are a

meansmeans

Learn from natureLearn from nature

Government Government sets sets

standardsstandards

Science Science informs informs choiceschoices

Everyone Everyone has ideashas ideas

Locals Locals know a lotknow a lot

Laws give Laws give directiondirection

Many waysMany ways