Oregon Modeling Improvement Program

An Innovative Approach to Support Public Policy & Decision-Making

Prepared for the Oregon Modeling Steering CommitteeOctober 20, 2010Presented by Becky Knudson

Oregon Department of TransportationTransportation Planning Analysis Unit

PortlandSalemEugeneMedfordBendCorvallisWELCOME TO OREGON3.8 M population1.8 M employment = MPO

OMIP OVERVIEWPurpose & strategic elements

Accomplishments

Next steps

Next challenges

WHAT IS THE OREGON MODELING IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM? (OMIP)Comprehensive statewide modeling & analysis program

Started by ODOT in 1994

Addresses complex rules & regulations

Multi-agency effort

MODELING IN THE 1990sModeled air quality conformity, major project developmentODOT*, 4 MPOs (Metro, LCOG , RVCOG*, MWVCOG*) and Bend*

New federal & state mandatesClean Air Act Amendments, National Environmental Policy Act, Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century Oregon Transportation Rule, Transportation Growth Management, Oregon Transportation Plan

Modeling methods outdated & could not address mandates Best modeling practices, timeliness, decision-making support

MODELING IN THE 1990s, contd

OMIP provided strategic directionEstablish collaborative working relationships with good communicationCreate oversight groups for policy and applicationsImprove transport models, integrate land use & economicsEstablish best practices & model development /application guidelinesOMIP Strategic Implementation Plan (1999)

OMIP STRATEGIC ELEMENTSTransportation & Land Use Model Integration Program

OMIP STRATEGIC ELEMENTSRESOURCESFundingStaff & EquipmentOUTREACHOMSC & OMUGPeer ReviewTraining & EducationDEVELOPMENTResearchBest Practices DocumentationModel DevelopmentIMPLEMENTATIONGuidelines & ProtocolsCase StudiesDATAHousehold & Activity SurveysFreight DataGIS

OMIP started a new interactive approach to analysis

MOVED FROM ALINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Policy Question

Technical Analysis

Results

Decision/Action

POLICYTECHNICALTECHNICALPOLICY

TO AN INTERACTIVE & ITERATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSPOLICYPOLICY/TECHNICALTECHNICALResultsPolicy QuestionTechnical AnalysisRefine QuestionTECHNICAL/POLICY

HOW DOES OMIP HELP OREGON?Address federal and state mandates Develop & analyze policy optionsMake better investment choices Provide innovative tools and methods to address pressing issues:Sustainability and quality communities Greenhouse gas reduction & least cost planningFoster collaboration to optimize limited resources (staff, funds)

Necessity, Who is the Mother of InventionPlato, The Republic

A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDRESOURCES Collaborative projectsQualified staffShared resources

OUTREACHContinuous International Peer Review panelPeer review of MPO modelsOMSC active forum for discussion & debateOMUG active forum for information sharingPartnership with OTREC universities for research & interns

OREGON MODELING STEERING COMMITTEEPartnership of federal, state and local agencies and jurisdictions.TransportationOffice of Economic Analysis Land Conservation & DevelopmentEnvironmental QualityEnergyOR Transportation Research & Education ConsortiumPort of PortlandMetro MWVCOGLCOGRVCOGBend MPOCorvallis MPOOMSCFHWASTATEMPOS

A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDDEVELOPMENTOR StateWide Integrated Model (SWIM1 & SWIM2)

5 MPO Jointly Estimated Models in R code (JEMnR)

18 Urban Models in small OR cities (OSUM)

Land Use Scenario DevelopR model (LUSDR)

Greenhouse gas Statewide Transportation Emissions Planning model (GreenSTEP)

OR Modeling Collaborative (OMC) at PSU to support applied research

Comprehensive documentation

A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDIMPLEMENTATION

OMIP Strategic Plan, guidelines & best practices

Significant policy issue applications:Brainstorming on Willamette Valley transportation futures Alternatives analysis for infrastructure investment decisionsInduced growth analysis for Newberg-Dundee Bypass EISInfrastructure prioritization for OR Bridge Deficiency AnalysisLong-range planning - OR Transportation & OR Freight PlansRogue Valley Regional Problem Solving StudyGreenhouse gas emissions reduction scenario development

A LOT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHEDDATA1994-6 MPO & rural OR household & travel activity surveys2006 pilot for GPS survey application2009-2012 statewide household & travel activity survey Freight Commodity Flow Forecasts, freight shipper & carrier surveys, truck intercept surveysGIS relational database developmentNew visualization tools

We met the original OMIP measure of success

BECOME THE WAY OREGON DOES BUSINESS

NEXT STEPSRESOURCES

Continue multi-agency & jurisdictional cooperation

Develop program with OMC & OTREC universitiesProvide internsTrain future qualified staff

Work with OMC & OTREC for research funding

NEXT STEPSOUTREACH

Expand outreach & information program with OMC & OTREC

Engage private sector in OMC activities

Expand modeling & analysis training to ODOT, MPOs & others

6th OR Integrated Modeling Symposium in 2012

NEXT STEPSDEVELOPMENT

Incorporate land use, environmental & least cost planning capabilities in OR models

Build interactive links among multi-level models

Explore transition to tour-based models

Develop sketch/scenario planning tools

Improve economic & freight modeling

Work with OMC & OTREC universities on applied research projects

NEXT STEPSIMPLEMENTATION

Continue modeling for high level policy questions

Expand analysis support for ODOT, cities, counties, other state agencies

Improve visualization & communication tools

Update guidelines & protocols

NEXT STEPSDATA

Complete statewide household & travel activity survey & analysis

Develop center for data storage & access at PSU

Improve freight data

CONTINUED CHALLENGESCoordination & interaction of technical & policy people

Develop variety of analysis tools & processes

Obtain good analytical tools Recognize constraints of time, funding & staff resources

Educate & communicate capabilities & processes for using analytical tools

Improve representation of economic factors & understand importance to stakeholders

CONTINUED CHALLENGES

FundingQualified staffState-of-the-art equipmentResearch & development for continuous improvementData Evolving public policy issuesGreenhouse gas emissionsLeast cost planningSustainabilityPricing

FOR MORE INFORMATIONOregon Modeling Improvement Program (OMIP)Bill Upton William.J.UPTON@odot.state.or.usBecky Knudson Rebecca.A.KNUDSON@odot.state.or.us

Oregon Modeling Steering Committee (OMSC)http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TPAU/OMSC.shtml

Oregon Modeling Users Group (OMUG)http://sites.google.com/site/ormodelug/

Fin

**Background on Oregon - 3 minutesTo provide context, a little about OregonPopulation of 3.4 million people (year 2000)70% of population located in Willamette ValleyRefer to graphic - Four MPOs in Oregon (blue), with 2 more to be designated in 2002 (yellow)Modeling staff is focused mostly in Portland Metro with 22 staff and ODOT with 9 staff. The two mid-Willamette Valley MPOs have a total of 2.5 staff. ODOT provides all modeling services to Rogue Valley in southern Oregon.ODOT is developing models for the two emerging MPOsWe do not have a lot of staff or money, but have a strong commitment to quality and sustainable communities and we have worked hard to develop the tools to help us make good decisions.*When the Program was started, Oregon could not meet analysis needs for new federal standards, such as the Clean Air Act Amendments or the Federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA).

ODOT was being left out of the decision-making process for state policy because it had nothing to add. It was becoming viewed as the road and bridge builder for the state instead of a transportation policy agency.

Followed a five track approach to make modeling useful and accessible to decision makers, stakeholders and practitioners;

***Historically, we made decisions in a linear fashion.

Define the problem very simply, such as we will have a 2% increase per year in traffic volumes for 20 years, so how much additional road capacity do we need to accommodate this increase?

We analyze the problem, present results, and make a decision.*We not only need to think in a more holistic manner, but we need an interactive and more integrated decision-making process, where questions continue to be refined using good analysis tools to make the best policy decisions. We now have tools to help us not only analyze complex issues, but they force us to think in a different way.*How does the program help ODOT? - 3 minutesIt helps us make better-informed choices for transportation investmentsBy fostering collaboration and working together, we make the best and most efficient use of staff and other resources We are developing tools to help provide good information on alternatives, possible results of policy directives, and a way to measure results to address the Governors quality communities agendaThe OMSC is a technical advisory committee that is available to assist in making more effective multi-agency and multi-jurisdictional decision-makingWe are developing tools that will help Oregon effectively address federal and state mandates*The Oregon Modeling Steering Committee operates the same way, with FHWA, key state agencies, and MPOs working together to address modeling issues and opportunities *Lastly, we need to start to think differently - more comprehensively and more integrated across agency and jurisdictional boundaries.

This needs to become the way we do business.*What next? - 5 minutesWe still have a lot to do:Complete the second generation of the model to be more sensitive and responsiveBuild interactive link between the statewide model and local urban and rural modelsExpand interactive capabilities of urban transportation models to incorporate economics and land useIncorporate air quality and other environmental considerationsWe need to educate users to use these tools to their fullest capability. This includes not only technical staff to do the modeling and analysis. It also includes decision-makers and the general public who can rely on models to ask difficult and complex questions to help make better decisions on use of public resources.We are talking about developing a North American and European consortium that will allow us all to benefit from each other's research and development.*What next? - 5 minutesWe still have a lot to do:Complete the second generation of the model to be more sensitive and responsiveBuild interactive link between the statewide model and local urban and rural modelsExpand interactive capabilities of urban transportation models to incorporate economics and land useIncorporate air quality and other environmental considerationsWe need to educate users to use these tools to their fullest capability. This includes not only technical staff to do the modeling and analysis. It also includes decision-makers and the general public who can rely on models to ask difficult and complex questions to help make better decisions on use of public resources.We are talking about developing a North American and European consortium that will allow us all to benefit from each other's research and development.**