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Belinda Reyers & Luthando Dziba
Natural Resources & the Environment
Council for Scientific & Industrial Research
Our Human Future
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www.igbp.net
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Holocene: Humanity’s 10 000 years of grace
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Sources Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; www.census.gov.
Holocene: Humanity’s 10 000 years of grace
MA 2005, FAOSTAT
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Sources Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; www.census.gov.
Holocene: Humanity’s 10 000 years of grace
MA 2005, FAOSTAT
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The quadruple squeeze
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Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Moving out of the holocene
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Our human future in the Anthropocene
• Feed nine billion people
• Reduce disaster risks
• Transition to low carbon societies
• Build healthy, resilient & productive cities
• Improve human health
• Adapt to a warmer world
• Ensure sustainable consumption & production
patterns
• Increase societal resilience to future threats
• Providing income and innovation opportunities
through transformations to global sustainability
• …….
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Our human future in the Anthropocene
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Our human future in the Anthropocene
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The contribution from science
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The transformation of science
• Solution-oriented
• Bridging disciplines
to solve complex
problems
• Global effort to
address global
challenges
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Science for global sustainability
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Future Earth = Global research
platform providing the knowledge
and support to accelerate our
transformations to a sustainable
world.
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Future Earth = Global research platform
providing the knowledge and support to
accelerate our transformations to a
sustainable world.
• Inspired and created ground-breaking interdisciplinary science relevant to priority sustainability challenges Why
•Delivered key policy-relevant products to these challenges What
How •Pioneered approaches to the co-design and co-
production of solution-oriented global change science
Who • Enabled and mobilised capacities to work in these
new ways, across genders, geographies and generations
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Future Earth Science Committee
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South Africa’s contribution
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Website: www.futureearth.org
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National development Disaster management Communal livelihoods
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National Development Planning: Water resources
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Science and society understanding water resources
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National scale: Urban water security
Strategic Water Source
Areas
8% land area provides 50%
of the surface water
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Gross Value Added (R millions) Economic value
& population size
Population size
• Red/orange areas
– Collectively support
~50% of SA’s
population
– Contribute >60% of
national GVA
• Economic value vs
population size
disconnect
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Outcomes and impacts
www.journeyofwater.co.za
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Be6b70yrTM
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Flood
Sea storm
Fire
Science & society working to reduce disasters
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Frequency of extreme events
Neumayer and Barthel (2010)
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• Climate change will increase natural
hazards
• Ecosystem change is as important Nel et al. 2014. PLoS One.
#
Knysna
#
Sedgefield
#
Plettenberg Bay
#
George
#
Karatara
Level of fire susceptibility0 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.20.2 - 0.30.3 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.7
Urban areas
Level of fire susceptibility per mesozone
Findings
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Escaped invasive alien trees
......increase fuel loads substantially
......use more water than indigenous
vegetation
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http://www.fsc-watch.org
Large stands of cleared timber
plantations ...... decreased soil permeability from pine resin
.......permeability made worse with fire
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Coastal hardening and catchment dams
Steep beach profile
Shallow beach profile ....alter sediment
dynamics
.......increase
beach erosion and
slope
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Clearing invasive
alien trees
Restoring wetlands
Restoring foredunes
Project
alignment
Planning
support
US$ 4-million
100 full-time jobs Coordinating ecosystem-based management
Supporting local authorities
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Communal rangelands: central to livestock production
Challenges: Alien plants invasion
Livestock: key assets for communal households Supply: milk, meat, manure, fuel services, income security, ceremonial services, etc.
Improving grazing livelihoods
Light invaded Uninvaded Dense invaded
Impacts of invasion: Stutterheim
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Overlap of high-value grazing & wattle invasion
High grazing potential Wattle invasion
Districts area overlap Source: Scholes (1998) Source: Kotze, et al., (2010)
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Application
• Government departments
• Water, Agriculture, Environment
• Grazing hotspots for agricultural conservation
purposes
• Prioritisation data for programmes
• National Land care, Working for Water
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Thank you
Belinda Reyers
Luthando Dziba
Ilse Kotzee
Odirilwe Selomane