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Our National Energy Picture:Our National Energy Picture: A Path to Marine

Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy

Bob Thresher, PhD, PENREL Research FellowNREL Research Fellow

A Workshop on Renewable Ocean Energy & the MarineOcean Energy & the Marine

Environment

Hosted by Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy CenterFlorida Atlantic University

P l B h Fl id

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

Palm Beach, Florida3-5 November 2010

World Primary Energy Demand is Growing

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy FutureNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

Affluence Requires Energy –Poverty Breeds Global InsecurityPoverty Breeds Global Insecurity

100

on) Affluence

Japan

10

000/

pers

o

United Kingdom

South Korea

United StatesFranceJapan

1Cap

ita ($

0

Mexico Poland

El Salvador Russia

1

GD

P Pe

r C

Poverty Bangladesh

China

0.10.1 1 10 100 1000

G Burkina Fasog

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002

The U.S. Energy Picture 1850-2008120

100

120

Non-hydro Renewables

80

BTU

sTW

h)

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

40

60

drilli

on B

uad

= 29

3T

Natural Gas

Hydro

20

40

Qua

d(1

Qu

Crude Oil

01850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Coal


Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-2008, Annual Energy Review 2008, Table F1b.

Renewable Energy Usage in the United States is 8%


Source: IEA 2009

Concentration of Greenhouse Gases is Increasing


Source: IPCC Report 2007b

Will the Climate Stabilize and at What Level?


Source: IPCC 2007b

Simulations of vegetation response by 2070-2099 to differentclimate change models (U.S. Forest Service 2004)

Current Climate

Hadley Climate Model Canadian Climate Centre Model


Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America – IPCC(2001) The Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2 2004.

Possible Climate Change Impacts by 2100Possible change (%)

Gross Net

Possible changes in percentages of breeding Neotroptical migrant species in the next 100 years (Price and Root 2001).

California -29 -6Eastern Midwest -57 -30Great Lakes -53 -29Great Plains – Central -44 -8Great Plains – Northern -44 -10Great Plains – Southern -32 -14Mid-Atlantic -45 -23New England -44 -15Pacific Northwest -32 -16Rocky Mountains -39 -10Southeast -37 -22Southwest -29 -4


Southwest 29 4

Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America. The Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2 2004.

Electric Potential for U.S. Extractable Ocean RE Resource is Significant

2500

U.S. Electricity Usage is ~ 4000TWh/year

1500

2000

2500s/

year

1000

1500

raw

att-

hrs

0

500Te

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 7)

Offshore Wind 60m-900m (1)

Offshore Wind 30m-60m (2)

hore Wind < 30m shallow (3)

Wave Energy (4)

Tidal and Stream (5)

Ocean Current (6

)

rmal Energy Conversion (7)


Off OOffshor

Ocean Therm

Source: Thresher & Musial, Oceanography Magazine, June 2010

The Vision for the U.S. Marine Energy Roadmap

• To establish a commercially viable marine renewable energy industry that is supplied by a robust U.S. manufacturing chain generating d ti j b th t t l l l i fi ld ith thdomestic jobs that can compete on a level playing field with other energy sources to serve both domestic and international marketplaces in 2030.

• To deploy a total of 20 GW of combined marine renewable energy capacity in an economically, environmentally, and socially

ibl b 2030responsible manner by 2030.

• To realize this vision, the MHK industry needs support to perfect the technology through R&D, financial incentives for early stage deployment, and siting and permitting requirements that are both timely and affordable.


A Deployment Scenario to 2030


Commercial Strategy & Deployment Scenario


Testing Facilities and Centers


Environmental Research


The Roadmaps Scope of Environmental Studies

– Benthic Surveys• Benthic organisms (Plants, algae, invertebrates, and fish)• Bottom geology (sediment rocks etc)Bottom geology (sediment, rocks, etc)• Scour protection

– Water Column Surveys• Fish• Habitat• Mammals• Birds

I t b t• Invertebrates• Turtles• Noise• EMF• EMF

– Water Quality Surveys• Chemical • Sediment Transport


p

Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition

Marine Renewable Technologies in Development


Source: IEA – OES Report Global Technology Status 2009

Marine Renewable Technology Maturity


Source: IEA – OES Report Global Technology Status 2009

DOE Hydrokinetic Technology Readiness Levels

Concept DesignDOE TRL 1‐3 Discovery / Concept

/Definition / Early Stage Development, Design

and Engineering

Part‐Scale (Tank) ( )DOE TRL 4 Proof of Concept

Part‐Scale (Tank/Sea)DOE TRL 5/6DOE TRL 5/6

System Integration and Laboratory Demonstration

Near to Full ScaleDOE TRL 7/8:DOE TRL 7/8:

Open Water System Testing, Demonstration, and Operation

Pre‐CommercialDOE TRL 9:


Array TestingCommercialDOE TRL 10:

An EU Story Demonstrating How Ocean Testing Drives Innovation

Y L M F t b D i !

24m/MW Innovation

You Learn More Faster by Doing!st

24m/MW

2 Years of Ocean Testing & Redesign

Innovation

Cap

ital C

o IncrementalEvolution

Dev

ice

C

7m/MW DesignRefinement

3m/MWGoal1.6m/MW

Production Learning


Prototype Units Built & Open Sea Tested1 2 4 nth

The EU Suite of Protocols for Developing Marine Renewables


Source: EquiMar at http://www.equimar.org/

IEA Ocean Energy Development Protocols

1.1 Generic and site related wave data

1.2 Guidance for assessing tidal current energy resource

2.1 Wave energy development protocolprotocol

2.2 Tidal energy development protocol

3 1 Preliminary wave energy3.1 Preliminary wave energy device performance protocol

3.2 Preliminary tidal energy device performance protocolp p

3.3 Guidelines for design basis of marine energy converters


http://www.iea-oceans.org/publications.asp?id=8

Watch This Space for Marine Energy International Standards

IEC TC 114 in Development

• Terminology for Marine E (IEC TS 62600 1)Energy (IEC TS 62600-1)

• Wave and Tidal Energy Resource Characterization and Assessment (IEC TS 62600-3)

• Performance Assessment ofPerformance Assessment of Wave Energy Converters (IEC TS 62600-100)

• Performance Assessment of• Performance Assessment of Tidal Energy Converters (IEC TS 62600-200)


http://www.iec.ch/dyn/www/f?p=102:7:0::::FSP_ORG_ID:1316

The EU Process for Environmental Consents

Again the Philosophy: Learn by doing!


Source: EquiMar, Teresa Simas – EquiMar Workshop Oct 2010

Life Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Gas Comparisons

Source: EquiMar draft protocol on Life Cycle Assessment http://www.equimar.org/


Uncertain of the Significance of the Environmental Impacts


Source: EquiMar draft protocol on Environmental Uncertainties http://www.equimar.org/

Uncertain Environmental Impacts (Continued)


A Wind Energy Example: Minnesota Local Economic Impacts

Ocean Energy Can Have Local Economic Benefits

A Wind Energy Example: Minnesota Local Economic Impacts from 1000 MW of new wind development

Wind energy’s economic “ripple effect”

Direct Impacts Indirect & Induced Impacts

Totals (construction + 20yrs)

Payments to Landowners: • $2.7 million/yearLocal Property Tax Revenue:• $2.8 million/yearC

Construction Phase:• 1530 new jobs• $150.6 M to local

Total economic benefit = $1.1 billion

New local jobs during

Induced Impacts (construction + 20yrs)

Construction Phase:• 1455 new jobs• $188.5 M to local economiesOperational Phase:• 232 new long term jobs

economiesOperational Phase:• 177 local jobs• $18.2 M/yr to local

i

construction = 2985New local long-term jobs= 409

• 232 new long-term jobs• $21.2 M/yr to local economies

economies


Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years

The Manufacturing Supply Chain Can Have National Benefits


The Decision to Develop and Deploy Marine Energy: Requires Balancing the Risks and Benefits

The Current Energy Path• Importing petroleum products

L t t t h l

Developing Marine Renewables• A new unproven technology

Hi h i iti l t t h l• Low current cost technology• High greenhouse gas emissions• Increasing competition for resources • Predictions of high environmental impacts

P j t d f t t i i

• High initial cost technology • Secure domestic energy supply • High economic development potential • Domestic jobs generation potential

U t i f t i t l i t


• Projected future costs increasing • Uncertain future environmental impacts

Our Cyclic Energy Policy 1970s Version


Questions?

Robert W. Thresher, NREL Research [email protected]

Draft U.S. Marine Energy Roadmap posted at:


http://www.oceanrenewable.com/press-room/

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