outline of presentation introduction assessment process key findings conclusions and...
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People and Places Vulnerable to People and Places Vulnerable to Climate Variability and Extremes: Climate Variability and Extremes:
Views from the Watershed Views from the Watershed Communities in the PhilippinesCommunities in the Philippines
J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco, J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco, RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin
ENFOR-CFNR-UPLBENFOR-CFNR-UPLB
Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific IslandsSecond AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific IslandsTraders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, PhilippinesTraders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, Philippines
2-5 November 20042-5 November 2004
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Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation
Introduction Assessment Process Key Findings Conclusions and Implications
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GCM Climate Scenario
National Climate Scenario
Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water,
forests and communities
Future Vulnerability Assessment
Future Adaptation Assessment
Climate Variability/ Extremes and Current Coping Mechanisms
Current Vulnerability Assessment
General Framework/Methodology of AS 21
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ObjectivesObjectives of Assessmentof Assessment Who are the vulnerable groups in the Who are the vulnerable groups in the
communities and what factors contribute communities and what factors contribute to their vulnerability?to their vulnerability?
Where are the vulnerable places located Where are the vulnerable places located and why do the local communities and why do the local communities considered them to be vulnerable?considered them to be vulnerable?
What implications can be drawn from the What implications can be drawn from the study that can improve current study that can improve current understanding on vulnerability and understanding on vulnerability and adaptation to future climate change?adaptation to future climate change?
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Assessment ProcessAssessment Process
1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders
NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan
DENR Briefing, Philippines CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
National Orientation, Manila
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Assessment ProcessAssessment Process
2. Gathering secondary information2. Gathering secondary information
• Demographic characteristics• Socio-economic characteristics• Geographic factors• Governance structure
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3. Field study3. Field studyTime line analysis
Participatory mapping of vulnerable groups and places
Participatory impact analysis
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3. Field study3. Field study
Identification and analysis of
adaptation strategies
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3. Field study3. Field study
Household interviews
GPS reading of vulnerable areas
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3. Field study3. Field studyAll done by engaging the local stakeholders
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4. Data encoding and analysis4. Data encoding and analysis
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5. Presentation and validation of research results5. Presentation and validation of research results
• To validate findings and engage stakeholders in adaptation planning
• To generate interest and support among various sectors on climate change initiatives and strengthen the research-policy link
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All done in the context of learning by doing cum capability building approach
Local stakeholders
Researchers and officials from Bhutan
Ido-China scientists
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General Site Description
• Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed generally represents a grassland watershed condition
• Provides water primarily for hydroelectric generation and irrigation purposes
Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed
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Summary of General Impacts of Summary of General Impacts of CV&E to Watershed CommunitiesCV&E to Watershed Communities
Areas of Areas of concernconcern
General General ImpactsImpacts
Food availabilityFood availability (-)(-)Crop yieldCrop yield (+) (-)(+) (-)
Water availabilityWater availability (+) (-)(+) (-)LivelihoodLivelihood (-)(-)HealthHealth (-)(-)InfrastructureInfrastructure (-)(-)
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Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Socioeconomic Groups to CV&ESocioeconomic Groups to CV&E
GroupsGroups ImpactsImpacts Degree of Degree of (-) Impacts(-) Impacts
VulnerabilityVulnerability
Better-off Better-off farmersfarmers
↓ ↓ production & production & income; ↔ food, income; ↔ food, livelihood, healthlivelihood, health
Better coping Better coping mechanism - low mechanism - low vulnerability vulnerability
““Little” farmersLittle” farmers↓ ↓ production, food, production, food, livelihood, health; livelihood, health; more debtmore debt
Poor coping Poor coping mechanism – high mechanism – high vulnerabilityvulnerability
EmployeesEmployees↑↑ price of price of commoditiescommodities
““Average” coping Average” coping mechanism – mechanism – moderately vul.moderately vul.
Business-Business-persons (small-persons (small-scale)scale)
↓ ↓ in salesin sales ““Average” coping Average” coping mechanism – mechanism – moderately vul.moderately vul.
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Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation StrategiesGroupsGroups StrategiesStrategies EffectivEffectiv
enessenessRecommen-Recommen-dationsdations
Better-off farmers
Store food and farm inputs
Effective
“Little” farmers
“5-6” loan; borrow from relatives; plant vegetables along river/other crops; work in nearby town; seek overseas employment; engage in other jobs
Some effective; others not
Livelihood project;
estab. factory;
coop development;
financial asstnce; estab. of Grain Agency accessible to the poor
Employees Avail of loan; backyard project (e.g. piggery)
Effective
Business-persons (small-scale)
Store food supply and other farm inputs
Effective “Price watch” to regulate prices
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L. MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN
TO SAN JOSE PROVINCIAL ROAD TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E.
SAN VICENTE
SAN FRANCISCO ST.
SAN JOAQUIN
SAN BALTAZAR ST.
ST
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ET
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MALBANG CREEK
F.C. OTIC NORTH
MUN. HALL RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
EMPLOYEES
BETTER-OFF FARMERS
BUSINESSPERSONS
VULNERABLE AREAS
“SMALL” FARMERS
RE
SID
EN
TIA
L
LEGEND :
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Low-lying, flood-prone settlement areas
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Low-lying, flood-prone agricultural areas
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Agricultural land at the tail-end of irrigation canal
Dying river
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Highly erodable areas along riverbanks
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Unstable areas that support infrastructure
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Roadsides and other steep areas prone to landslides
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LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES
Areas highly susceptible to forest fires
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CARRANGLAN
PANTABANGAN
ALFONSO CASTAÑEDA
MARIA AURORA
VULNERABILTY MAP BASED AND
BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIAL PARAMETERS
- LOW
- MODERATE- HIGH
. - VULNERABLE SITES (LOCAL PEOPLE)
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Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications Engagement of the stakeholders at the different
stages of the research process– generates public awareness and interest on the issue– facilitates identification and potentially, implementation of
adaptation strategies especially at the local level– Strengthen research-policy interlink
Poor farmers are more vulnerable to CV&E and have lesser capacity to adapt due to:– lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural,
and manufactured capital)– past faulty development approach that created sense of
dependency among local communities– limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism
that provides assistance to the poor– inequitable social structure
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Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications
Participatory vulnerability assessment has the following benefits: – Complements existing assessment
methods like the use of vulnerability index and GIS application, thereby make the assessment more robust
– Promotes dialogue with local communities
– Increases the chances of enhancing local adaptation
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Conclusions and ImplicationsConclusions and Implications
Looking on the multiple stressors that contribute to people’s vulnerability is a useful way of understanding this complex process
Addressing vulnerability should include among others, mainstreaming adaptation in development programs and should aim at empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on external support.
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Our future depends on reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity NOW!!!
THANK YOU!!!THANK YOU!!!