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© Ricardo plc 2019

OV Diner 2019Autonomous Transport Systems

Tom JansenGlobal Domain Leader Connected & Automated VehiclesRicardo PLC

2Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019

• Introduction & market overview

• Autonomous Vehicle technology today

• Safety & Cyber Security

• Q&A

Contents


Our experience in ATS technical systems and (authority) processes

Ultra PRT –London Heathrow

EcoTwin Truck Platooning BHP Rail ATO ATO Thameslink

De Lijn Zaventem Airport

MASDAR Personal Rapid Transport

Phileas semi-automatic bus

WEpods peoplemover


Autonomous Vehicles landscape

Automatic Train Operation

Often closed systems like Metro, Platform

Screen Doors. ATO increases capacity

and reliability.

PODSUrban environment,

low speed, fullyautonomous, no

steering wheel or driver. Innovation level and

media attention major drivers.

Commercial Heavy Duty

Automating the Dull, theDirty and the

Dangerous. Business case is leading: less

costs for fuel or driver, better safety.

Passenger CarsDriven from the top tier of car manufacturers,

upgrading from normalluxury passenger cars. ADAS systems, driver

as backup.


Will Autonomous Vehicles lead to less public transport?

Observed trends in research show that Millennials:

• Own fewer cars than previous generations did1

• Drivers license rate is mostly dropping2

• Less money to spend3, yet spend more on transit1

• Want access to cars, without burden of ownership4

1) Klein & Smart, Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars

2) M. Sivak, University of Michigan, recent changes in the age composition of drivers in 15 countries

3) Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.)4) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Spending on transit fares per adult in an individual's family by birth cohortand age, inflation-adjusted to 2013$,PSID2003–2013


Will Autonomous Vehicles lead to less public transport?

• Enables better first and last mile transport, improving the attractiveness of public transport overall

• “Mobility as a Service” to become the new standard

• Benefits for the elderly, children and disabled& more acceptance of long distance commuting

• New challenges AND opportunities for Rail

Image source: travelspirit.io


The introduction of autonomous vehicles on public road

Important to convince society, the authoritiesand ourselves that any autonomous vehicle

that is introduced, is

safe

Autonomous Vehicles can dramatically reduce thenumber of road accidents1,2

Transition phase towards full autonomy and full autonomous cars is especially challenging

[1] NHTSA (2008), National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey

[2] Fagnant and Kockelman (2013)

HOWEVER


What issues are Automated Transport Systems facing?


SOMEWHEREEVERYWHERE

Two major strategies for today


Data source: California DMV Autonomous Vehicle disengagement & collision reports 2015-2018

How good are current driverless autonomous vehicles really?

The current ‘best’ autonomous vehicles need human interference to avoid an accident every 18.000km

(the worst every 1.8km)


Recent survey among 5.000 Tesla model 3 owners shows a more subtle story:

• 90% is satisfied or very satisfied with safety of Autopilot

• 6 drivers claim Autopilot contributed to a collision

• 9 drivers claim Autopilot saved their lives

Practical experience with autonomous vehicles

“A deer jumped in front of me on a dark road at night. By the time my foot moved to the brake pedal, it

was already pressed to the floor!”

“Didn’t recognize lanes properly on a two way road and put me in

into oncoming traffic.”

“Phantom braking on autobahn, wrong speedlimits and following

braking from 130km/h to 50km/h.”“Failed to slow sufficiently

for tight bend, crossed center line, hit a truck.”

“I wasn’t paying attention, someone pulled in front of me and the car ran

right into them.”

“The car detected a pile-up in fog and applied the brakes/alerted driver and

began a lane change to avoid it before I took over. I believe it saved my life.”

““It moved me to the side in the blink of an eye when a car

suddenly changed lanes to where I was... The Autopilot

reacted crazy fast.”

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/autopilot.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/autopilot.html


We can never be 100% sure. BUT:

Doing nothing at all will cost lives,

compared to what we could achieve.

How can we be sure Automated Vehicles are safe enough?

The ‘Swiss Cheese’ model

Gradually build confidence and slowly increasecomplexity of environment


Safety Cases for Autonomous Vehicles

To efficiently prove the safety of your autonomous vehicle, an intelligently layered simulation, testing and validation

strategy needs to be chosen!

Not just for the vehicle, but for the system!


Virtual Validation

Source: Autonomous Vehicles: Virtual Testing and Validation, Siemens Software

Virtual validation is essential to assure autonomous vehicles can Sense, Think and Act safely under all circumstances


Cybersecurity

Project HoneyTrain experiment (2015)

• Model railway with representative hardware / industrial Siemens S7 PLC’s etc.

• 2,7M attacks in 6 weeks

• 41% of attacks from China

• Mainly automated port scans and dictionary attacks (username and pw)

Original security camera interface, replaced by hacker


Cybersecurity issues

We do not always realize how many potentially vulnerable interfaces exist within modern car electronics

*) Spoofing is a type of scam where an intruder attempts to gain unauthorized access to a user's

system or information by pretending to be the user

OTA Software updates

GPS spoofing*

Radar spoofing

LIDAR spoofing

Smartphone Link malware

Camera spoofing

V2I hacking

V2V hack

ISO 21434 Road Vehicles –Cybersecurity Engineering

New mandatory standardfor Cyber Security expected

to be effective starting2020

17January 2019Future of Transportation World Conference 2019© Ricardo plc 2019

Ricardo Nederland

Tom Jansen

Global Domain Leader Connected & Automated Vehicles

[email protected]+316 5584 5445

“Nothing needs more guidance than a self steering vehicle”

mailto:[email protected]


• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R08mg0XmbS0 (EcoTwin truck platooning explained)

• https://youtu.be/VG68SKoG7vE?t=16 (Tesla camera and recognition demo)

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK0SrxBC1xs (Succesful cyber attack on JEEP)

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW7XUs_0yU8 (Rivium ParkShuttle, since 1997)

• “Towards the legal admission of connected/automated vehicles”, Gerben Feddes, RDW

Standards and guidelines• ISO26262: Road vehicles – Functional safety

• EN5012x:– EN50126: Railway applications - The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS)– EN50128: Railway applications - Communication, signalling and processing systems - Software for railway control and protection systems– EN50129: Railway applications - Communication, signalling and processing systems - Safety related electronic systems for signaling

• SAE J3061: Cybersecurity Guidebook for Cyber-Physical Vehicle Systems

• ISO 21434 Road Vehicles – Cybersecurity Engineering

• TR68 - Technical Reference, Autonomous Vehicles (Singapore)

References and interesting links

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R08mg0XmbS0

https://youtu.be/VG68SKoG7vE?t=16

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK0SrxBC1xs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW7XUs_0yU8

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