Overview of India’s Energy Scenario

Rangan BanerjeeDept. of Energy Science and

EngineeringIIT Bombay

Presentation at Indian Institute of Chemical Engineers Mumbai Regional Center Seminar on ‘Energy Options for India’, Hotel Hilton, Mumbai, March 18, 2011

Outline of Talk

Energy flow diagram Energy Balance – India Energy-Emissions Linkage Access, Development Issues- Sustainability

ENERGY FLOW DIAGRAMPRIMARY ENERGY

ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITY

SECONDARY ENERGY

TRANSMISSION & DISTRN. SYSTEM

FINAL ENERGY

ENERGY UTILISATION EQUIPMENT & SYSTEMS

USEFUL ENERGY

END USE ACTIVITIES

(ENERGY SERVICES)

COAL, OIL, SOLAR, GASPOWER PLANT, REFINERIESREFINED OIL, ELECTRICITY

RAILWAYS, TRUCKS, PIPELINESWHAT CONSUMERS BUY DELIVERED ENERGYAUTOMOBILE, LAMP, MOTOR, STOVEMOTIVE POWER RADIANT ENERGYDISTANCE TRAVELLED, ILLUMINATION,COOKED FOOD etc..

Energy End Uses

Boiler, GeyserFluid heatedHeating

Fans,AC, refrigSpace CooledCooling

motorsShaft workMotive Power

Cycle, car, train, motorcycle, bus

Distance travelled

Transport

IncandescentFluorescent, CFL

IlluminationLighting

Chullah, stoveFood CookedCooking

DeviceEnergy ServiceEnd Use

India and World (2007 Statistics)

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2009

Population 1123 million 6609 million

GDP (PPP) 4025 Billion 2000 US$(3584 $/person)

61428 Billion 2000 US$(9295 $/person)

Primary Energy 24.9 EJ 503.5 EJ

Energy/person 22.2 GJ/person/year 76.2 GJ/person/year

Electricity/person 543 kWh/capita/year 2752 kWh/capita/year

CO2 emissionsPer person Per GDP

1325 Million tonnes 29080 Million tonnes

1.18 tonnes /capita/year 4.4 tonnes /capita/year

0.33 kg /US$ ppp 0.47 kg /US$ ppp

India-Primary Energy mix

Biomass, 27.2 Oil , 23.7

Coal, 40.8

Hydro, 1.8

Nuclear , 0.7

Natural Gas, 5.6

Wind 0.2

2007

24.9 EJ1 EJ = 1018 J

World Primary Energy ConsumptionHydro

2%Renewable

10%Nuclear

6%

Ngas21%

Coal25%

Oil36%

Total 504 EJ

1 EJ = 1018 J2007

Data Source: http://www.iea.org/

India – Installed power capacity

Coal51%

Gas11%

Oil 1%

Hydro24%

Nuclear 3%

Renewable10% 2010

Total: 159,650 MW

NET POWER TO ULTIMATE CONSUMERS386000 MU (69 %)

58900MU

T & D LOSS175500 MU

31 %

ENERGY AVAILABLE 562000 MU

AUX.CON.41600 MU

(7 %)

STEAM424000 MU

( 71 %)

HYDRO84600 MU

(14 %)

GAS61500 MU

(10 %)

NUCLEAR17000 MU

(3 %)

RENEWABLES7100 MU

(1 %)

GROSS GENERATION 594000 MU

Import ( other countries)1700 MU

AUX.CON.5400 MU

(8 %)

7100 MU

8800 MU

Captive Generation71400 MU

RESIDENTIAL95700 MU

(21 %)

COMMERCIAL31400 MU

(7 %)

TRACTION9500 MU

(2 %)WATER WORKS ,

PUMPING & LIGHTING 14600 MU

( 3 %)

AGRICULTURAL88600 MU

( 20 %)

OTHERS8900 MU

(2 %)

INDUSTRIAL POWER (HV + LV)

196500 MU(44 %)

GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION 445000 MU

Time of Use Tariff (MSEB-HT Ind., Jan 2002)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hours

Pais

e/kW

h

Off-peak

Peak

Partial Peak

Peak

Annual Load Duration Curve for 2005-6

Quantification of peak shortage of MSEDCL for 2006-7

India - Fossil Fuel reserves

Fuel Reserves Prodn 2003-4

R/P ratio

Coal +Lignite

(Million Tonnes) 34000 414 ~83 (P)

140 P+I Oil (Million Tonnes)

760 33 (117)

23 (7)

N.Gas Billion m3

920 32 29

Uranium Tonnes

61000 PHWR ~50 10GW

Data Source Plg Comm IEPC, 2006

Coal Reserves (India)

Nuclear Plants in India

Source:NPCIL

Energy Consumption and Air Pollution

SO2

NOx CO SPM CO2

CFC

Modification of Atmospheric properties/processes

Photochemical Smog Precipitation Acidity Visibility Corrosion Potential Radiation Balance Alteration Ultraviolet energy absorption

Source : Energy After Rio: UNDP Publication

Environmental Impacts

Adverse Health Impacts- Local Local perturbations to Global

Disruptions as human energy use increased

Human Disruption Index (DI) = Ratio of Human generated flow of a given pollutant to the natural or baseline flow

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Kaya identity: Total CO2 Emissions= (CO2/E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)PopCO2/E – Carbon IntensityE/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy Mitigation – increase sinks, reduce sources-

aforestation, fuel mix,energy efficiency, renewables,nuclear, carbon sequestration

Adaptation

GHG Emissions (Fuel Cycle Analysis)

Coal Conventional Advanced Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass PV Hydro-electric Wind

CO2 g/kWh960 -1300800-860690-870460-12309-10037-16630-1502-41011-75

Source: John Holdren

Kirk Smith, World Energy

Assessment, UNDP,2001

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif

Need for Alternatives

Fossil fuel reserves limited India - 17% of World population, 4% of

primary energy Present pattern – predominantly fossil based

(87% comm, 64% total) 52% of households unelectrified Linkage between energy services and quality of

life

Rx for Energy Sector

Paradigm shift – focus on energy services ‘Shortage of supply’ to ‘longage of demand’ Present energy systems unsustainable-

resources, climate change, environmental impact

Transition to renewables, clean coal, nuclear, efficiency

Goals for the Energy sector

#1 Provide Access to “convenient” energy services, affordable

#2 Make new technologies attractive to investors

#3 Develop sustainable energy systems –Climate, local emissions, land, water

Renewable Energy Options

Wind Solar Small

Hydro Biomass

Tidal Energy

Wave Energy Ocean Thermal Energy

Solar Thermal

Solar Photovoltaic

Geothermal*

Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity

India WorldWind Power 9.66 GW 121 GW

Small Hydro 2.0 GW 85 GW

Biomass Power 8.0 GW 52 GW

Solar PV (grid) 3 MW 13.0 GW

Geothermal Power 0 10.0 GW

Solar Thermal Power (CSP) 0 0.5 GW

Total renewable power 13 GW 280 GW

Solar Water heater 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m2) 145 GW (th) ( 205 million m2)

Biofuels Fuel ethanol (production)

0.3 billion litres 67 billion litres

Biodiesel (production) 0.02 billion litres 12 billion litres

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update

Renewable Installed Capacity trend

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

Renewable installed capacity and generationInstalled

Capacity*(MW)

Estimated Capacity

factor

EstimatedGeneration

(GWh)Wind 12009 14% 14728

Biomass Power 901 70% 4735

Biomass Gasifier

125 60% 766

BagasseCogeneration

1411 60% 7416

Small Hydro 2767 40% 9695

Waste to Energy

72 50% 315

Solar PV 12.2 20% 22

Total 17297 25% 37678

*as on 30.06.2010 MNRE website: www.mnre.nic.in

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Shar

e of

tot

al (%

)

Renewable Share in Power

Renewable Installed Capacity

Renewable Generation

Nuclear Installed CapacityNuclear generation

Wind Power

5000 MW installed Single machine upto 2.1

MW Average capacity factor

14% Capital cost Rs 4-

5crores/MW, Rs 2-3/kWh (cost effective if site CF >20%)

India 45000 /13000 MW potential estimated

32%/ year (5 year growth rate)

05

10152025303540

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Ann

ual L

oad

Fact

or (%

)

Satara, Maharashtra

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

lAug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month of year

Act

ual M

onth

ly G

ener

atio

n (*

1000

kWh)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ave

rage

Win

d Sp

eed

(m/s)

Monthly GenerationWind Speed

Small Hydro Power

Classification - Capacity-Micro less than 100 kWMini 100 kW - 3 MWSmall 3 MW - 15 MW

Micro and Mini - usually isolated, Small grid connected

Heads as low as 3 m viable Capital Cost Rs 5-6crores/MW ,

Rs 1.50-2.50/kWh 1846 MW (7%/year)

200 kW Chizami village, Nagaland

Aleo (3MW) Himachal Pradesh

Geothermal/OTEC/Tidal/Wave

India 150kW plant Thiruvananthpuram

< 1MWGrid Connected

PROTOTYPEWave Energy

India 1MW gross plant attempted

50 kW210 kWNELHA

PROTOTYPEOTEC

LF 20%No Indian experience (3.6MW planned Sunderbans)

240 MWFRANCE

PROTOTYPETidal

4c/kWh$2000/kW No Indian experience50 MW plant J & K planned

8240 MWCOMMERCIALGeothermal

Cost EstimatesWorld

Map of India showing the geothermal provinces

OTEC plant schematic

Mooring Arrangement

Wave Energy

Source: Sukhatme

Annual Insolation

kWh/m2/year

kWh/m2/year

kWh/m2/year

kWh/m2/year

Area for Power Generation

India’s present electricity requirement approx. 500 billion kWh, can be met by installing 2500 sq. km of solar field.

A square of 50km x 50km, or

4 smaller squares of 25km x 25km.

BIOMASS

THERMOCHEMICAL BIOCHEMICAL

COMBUSTION GASIFICATION PYROLYSIS

RANKINE CYCLE

PRODUCER GAS

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURISED

FERMENTATIONDIGESTION

BIOGAS ETHANOL

Duel Fuel SIPGEGas Turbines

Biomass Conversion Routes

Hydrogen generation

Photo chemical

Solar Energy Nuclear Energy Bio-Energy

Electricity

Wind

Thermal

ElectrolysisThermo chemical

Fossil-Fuel

Photo biological

Hydrogen

Gasification Fermentation

Cracking + Shift Reaction

Biomass Power

Higher Capacity factors than other renewables

Fuelwood, agricultural residues, animal waste

Atmospheric gasification with dual fuel engine -

500 kW gasifier - largest installation

Combustion – 5-18 MW Rs 2.50-4/kWh Kaganti Power Ltd. Raichur Distt. A.P. 7.5 MW

100 kWe Pfutseromi village, Nagaland

Biomass Gasifier Example

Arashi HiTech Biopower, Coimbatore

1 MW grid connected 100% producer gas

engines Two gasifiers – coconut

shells, modified to include other biomass

Chilling producer gas with VARS operated on waste heat

Biomethanation Plant example

Cattle dung, urban waste

High rate

Biomethanation

2.4 acres land

1 MW grid connected + cogeneration

13.4 crores

UNDP-GEF

Biogas

45-70% CH4 rest CO2

Calorific value 16-25MJ/m3

Digestor- well containing animal waste slurry

Dome - floats on slurry- acts as gas holder

Spent Slurry -sludge- fertiliser

Anaerobic Digestion- bacterial action

Family size plants 2m3/day

Community Size plants 12- 150 m3/day

Rs 14- 19000 for a 2m3 unit

Cooking, Electricity, running engine Pura, Karnataka

Annual PV module / cell Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

1986 1991 1996 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Prod

uctio

n (M

W)

PV modulesPV cells

National Solar Thermal Power, Testing Simulation and Research Facility

Arun

CLFR Technology

Parabolic Trough

- MW scale power plantGrid connected

- Expected operation date in 2011

- Funding from MNRE- Facilitate cost effective

solar thermal power technology development in India

Consortium Members• IIT Bombay• TATA Power• TCE Consulting Engineers• Larsen & Toubro• KIE Solartherm• Clique Developments Pvt. Ltd.• Solar Energy Centre

Solar Thermal Heating

ARUN160 Mahananda Dairy, Latur

S. No. Equipment Rating Initial cost(Rs)

Annual ElectricityCost (Rs)

ALCC (Rs)Cost of electricity

as %of ALCC

1 Motor 20 hp 45,000 600,000 605,720 99.0

2 EE Motor 20 hp 60,000 502,600 512,700 98.0

3 Incandescent Lamp

100 W 10 1168 1198 97.5

4 CFL 11 W 350 128 240 53.6

Comparison of initial cost and life cycle cost

EE- Energy Efficient, CFL- Compact fluorescent lamp, ALCC- Annualised life cycle cost

Industry Flows

Source: Marechal, GEA

Thermodynamic Limits

Coal and coal products (21.5)

Crude, NGL, petroleum prod. (13.6)

Natural gas (18.1)

Renewables (7.5)

Product(44.6)

Loss and waste(43.0)

Globalindustrial

sector

Electricity (22.3)

Heat (4.6)

Total (87.6) Total (87.6)

Coal and coal products (21.5)

Crude, NGL, petroleum prod. (13.6)

Natural gas (18.1)

Renewables (7.5)

Product(25.1)

Loss and waste(59.2)

Globalindustrial

sector

Electricity (22.3)

Heat (1.3)

Total (84.3) Total (84.3)

Units in ExaJoules

Efficiency 51% Efficiency 30%

Energy Exergy

Source: Rosen, GEA

Conservation supply curve for electricity savings in cement industry-India

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cumulative Energy Savings (GWh)

CSE

(US

cent

s / k

Wh)

1-Automation

2.Additives

3.Optimization4. Energy Efficent Lighting

5. Energy Efficient Motor

6. Sizing7. Variable Speed Drives

8. New Equipment

9. Equipment Modification Retrofits

10. Waste Heat Recovery

1

23

45

6

7

8

9

10

Passive House, Zero Energy Buildings

www.passiv.de

www.passiv.de

(Germany/Sweden)http://www.pasivnidomy.cz/domy/

Zero Energy Building

Fully Daylit Building Fully cross Ventilation Zoning for Warm-Humid Water Conservation and

Recycling Efficient Building

Materials Energy Generation

Biomass, Solar PV Monitoring and Control

mechanism in place

Features

17.7 kWh/m2/year

Comparison criteria Non-renewable energy consumption per km

travel (MJ/km) Greenhouse gas emissions per km travel (g

CO2-eq/km) Cost per km travel (Rs./km)

Annualised life cycle costing (ALCC) method Existing Indian prices. If technology is not available commercially in

India, international prices are used

Resource constraints

Life cycle inventory

Fossil diesel, electricity

Agricultural Cultivation stage

Fertilizer, herbicide

IrrigationKaranja SeedsSeed bed preparation,Sowing

Conversion stage

Karanja Bio-diesel (NER, MJ/km vehicle driven), cost (ALCC, per ha, per tones and per km basis)

Fossil diesel, Electricity, and NaOH, MeOH

Cracking

Pressing

Filtration

Transesterification

Vehicle operation with fuel combustion stageFossil diesel

Transportation Fossil diesel,

57

Life cycle Approach NER = Eout/EinIf NER > 1, Replacement viableNER < 1, Replacement not viable CRF (d, n)=[d *(1+d)^n]/[(1+d)^n-1] ALCC = AC + C0*CRF (d, n) NER (Net Energy Ratio) ALCC (Annualized cost) CRF (Cash recovery factor)

Methodology for analysis

Secondary EnergyPrimary EnergyRenewable Energy

Fossil diesel, electricity

Agricultural Cultivation stage

Fertilizer, herbicide, fossil

IrrigationJatropha/KaranjaSeeds

Seed bed preparation,Sowing, diesel

Cracking

Pressing

Filtration

Trans-esterificationJatropha/karanja Bio-diesel (NER, MJ/km vehicle driven, cost (Rs/kg), Renewable

Energy

Vehicle operation with fuel combustion stageFossil diesel

Transportation and conversion stage

Fossil diesel, MeOH, NaOH

PE PE

PE

PE

58

Jatropha and Karanja Analysis results

Yield scenario, tones/ha

NER without co-products

NER with co-products

Jatropha Karanja Jatropha KaranjaBest 3.04 4.4 6.5 8.7

Worst 0.79 2.4 1.7 4.7Average 2.32 3.6 4.9 7.2

Cost Variation in the AnalysisJatropha Karanja

36 Rs/kg to 33 Rs/kg 25 Rs/kg to 21 Rs/kg

59

Not viable

Viable

Jatropha and Karanja Analysis results

Rs. 33-36/kg Rs. 21-25/kg

Source: Green Rating Project, 2009, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi.

6,77,7005,89,2001,56,000Total

15,0008,0002,430Small hydropower plants

50,00020,0001,752Biomass

50,00000Offshore wind

40,00040,00010,891Onshore wind

7,500 – without storage 15,000 – with

storage

4000 – without storage 2000 – with storage

0Solar thermal (CSP)

55,00010,0000Solar PV

30,00030,0004,120Nuclear power

84,50084,50036,885Large Hydropower plants

50,70050,70018,256Gas & oil-based power plants

2,80,0003,40,00081,606Coal-based power plants

LCBAU

2030-31 (in MW) 2008-09

(in MW)

Sample Future Scenarios

Summing Up

Energy Access, affordability, sustainability

Renewables – Marginal to mainstream Significant potential for cost effective-

energy efficiency Dematerialisation, Product design Emphasis on new stock Technology development, R&D

References

World Energy Assessment – Energy & the Challenge of Sustainability,UNDP, 2000,

AKNReddy,R H Williams, T. Johannson,Energy After Rio- Prospects and Challenges-,UNDP, 1997, New York.

Tata Energy Data Directory, 2001, New Delhi Urja Bharati, MNES, 1994 Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, 2006 www.mnre.gov.in, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. Wiel S. (2001): Energy Efficiency Labels and Standards, S. Wiel and J.E.

McMahon, eds. (Washington, D.C., Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Programme (CLASP).

www.ipcc.ch Green Rating Project, 2009, Centre for Science and Environment, New

Delhi.

Thank you rangan@iitb.ac.in