overview community health modeling working group meeting
DESCRIPTION
Overview Community Health Modeling Working Group Meeting. Tony Servin, P.E. Modeling Support Section Planning and Technical Support Division May 6, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency. EJVOverview_050603.ppt. Overview of the Day. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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OverviewCommunity Health Modeling
Working Group Meeting
Tony Servin, P.E.Modeling Support Section
Planning and Technical Support Division
May 6, 2003
Air Resources Board
California Environmental Protection AgencyEJVOverview_050603.ppt
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Overview of the Day
• Overview of the Neighborhood Assessment Program and Cumulative Assessment
• Technical issues to be studied with the Wilmington Protocol
• Regional modeling results for Southern California • Method to assess cumulative impacts at a
neighborhood scale anywhere in the state• Open discussion• Your feedback
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Policies & Actions
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Environmental Justice Policies and Actions
• Adopted by the California Air Resources Board,
December 2001
• Policy V
“It shall be the ARB’s policy to assess,
consider, and reduce cumulative emissions,
exposure, and health risks when developing
and implementing our programs”
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Environmental Justice Specific Actions
• Regional maps showing estimated cancer health
risks (e.g., ASPEN)
• Regional maps showing air pollution emission
sources (e.g., CHAPIS)
• Develop tools for assessments of cumulative
emissions, exposure, and health risk on a
neighborhood scale and provide maps showing
the results at the neighborhood level. (New
Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps)
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Investigative Work
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Statewide ModelingProtocol
Wilmington ModelingProtocol
NAP Modeling Approach
Cumulative Risk Assessment Tool
Emissions andMeteorology
MicroscaleModeling
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
Barrio LoganModelingProtocol
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Updated NAPModelingProtocol
Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Model Evaluation Component Proposed Product
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Plan
• Conduct refined air quality modeling
simulations of toxic emissions for
cumulative sources
– Microscale (Neighborhood scale) Distances
– Regional Distances
• Bridge these actions to an approach
feasible for any location in the State
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Neighborhood Assessment Program Approach
Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Proposed Product
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
Microscale (Neighborhood)
Modeling
Emissions andMeteorology
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Pilot Studies
• Microscale - Estimate neighborhood cumulative air pollutant risk for two case studies– Barrio Logan
– Wilmington
• Regional - Estimate regional air toxic risk for Southern California
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Emissions and Meteorology
Status
• Emission Inventory Development– Regional (Southern California only)– Microscale (Barrio Logan)– Microscale (Wilmington under development)
• Meteorological Development– Regional (Southern California only)– Microscale (Barrio Logan)– Microscale (Wilmington under development)
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
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Microscale Modeling Barrio Logan - Pilot Study
• Enhanced Emission Inventory• Evaluating Performance of Four
Microscale Dispersion Models• Obtained Preliminary Model
Results (50 m resolution)• Conducting Model Evaluation
(Toxics & Tracer Monitoring)
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
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Microscale Modeling Wilmington - Pilot Study
• Identified in MATES-II • Freeways, Refineries, Port, Local Traffic,
Manufacturing, Local Facilities• Under Development
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
(source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12)
Wilmington
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Regional Modeling Southern California - Pilot Study
• SCOS domain (4 km grid resolution)• Larger than MATES II
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
San Diego
Riverside
Los AngelesSan BernardinoVentura
Orange
Mexico
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Integrated Results
Microscale Impacts
+ _Regional Impacts
Total Impacts
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
Careful to understand double counting of emissions
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Risk AssessmentPreliminary Results - Barrio Logan• Microscale only • All toxics• Inhalation only
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
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th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha lation R isk(per M illion)
0
100
200
500
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
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Risk Assessment (cont.)
Preliminary Barrio Logan Findings• Diesel PM is major contributor to
inhalation risk (DPM non-measurable)
• Facility risk similar to HRA risk• Microscale model generally
underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial
• Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation
RegionalModeling
IntegratedResults
Risk Assessment
Mapping andVisualization
MicroscaleModeling
Emissions andMeteorology
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Verification of Model Results
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Model Performance
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation– Iterative process
• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis
– Begin with most sensitive pollutants to risk (e.g., diesel PM and gasoline stations)
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Tracer Studies• Needed to establish Microscale
model performance• Logan Memorial (Winter & Summer)
– Preliminary Results– Contractor analyzing data
• Wilmington under development
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Toxic Monitoring
• Logan Memorial Ambient– 17 months (Oct. 1999 - Feb. 2001)
• Barrio Logan Intensive– Special study (Five sites)– Two weeks of data (Dec./Jan.
2001/2002)– Data being analyzed
• Wilmington Ambient– 13 months (May 2001 - July 2002)
• Wilmington Intensive– Planning stages
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Regional Model Performance Evaluation
• Procedures well established for episodic hourly concentrations of O3
• No established metric for 24-hr or annual average concentrations of toxics
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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External Review
• Working Group Evaluations– 55 participants on mailing list– Govt. (District, US-EPA, OEHHA)– Independent Scientists– Environmental Groups– Industry Representatives– Last meeting Sept. 12, 2002
• Independent Scientific Peer Review Group for Barrio Logan Protocol– Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA– Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis– Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc.– Dr. Akula Venkatram, UC Riverside
Model Evaluation
• Inventory Data Evaluation• Sensitivity Studies• Uncertainty Analysis• Tracer Studies• Toxics Monitoring• Regional Modeling Evaluation• Work Group Evaluation
Input Data Requirements
Model Strengthsand Limitations
Independent Scientific Peer Review
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Continue to Technical Issues Investigated in
Wilmington Study