overview of 1996-2001 iep pwt calibration process
DESCRIPTION
Overview of 1996-2001 IEP PWT Calibration Process. Staff December 14, 2006. Overview of 1996-2001 IEP PWT Calibration Process. Chris Enright December 14, 2006. Models and Data over time. Data. Models. Models and Data over time. 1996-2001 DSM2 Re-Calibration. Mid 90’s - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Overview of 1996-2001 IEP PWT Calibration Process
Staff
December 14, 2006
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Overview of 1996-2001 IEP PWT Calibration Process
Chris Enright
December 14, 2006
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Data Models
Models and Data over time
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Models and Data over time
Data
Late 80’s early 90’sLink-Node
andDSM1Models
Models
Mid 90’sUSGS Flow Network
NOAA bathymetry data
1996-2001DSM2
Re-Calibration
Since 2000:• Expanded USGS Flow Network (23 stations)• Bathymetry data collection by DWR CD• Expanded understanding of Delta transport• Stakeholder participation
DSM2 ModelAppears
Where we are today
Since 2000:• Expanded USGS Flow Network• Bathymetry data collection by DWR CD• Expanded understanding of Delta transport• Stakeholder participation
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
• Managers were frustrated with modelers
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
• Managers were frustrated with modelers
Old RiverNet Flow
Middle River Net Flow
Old River/Middle RiverFlow Split ~ 50/50
FDM
DSM1
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
• Managers were frustrated with modelers
• Availability of new Delta flow data
Sacramento R
San Joaquin R
Montezuma SloughChan 511 @ length
Sacramento RiverChan 435 @ middle
Sherman Lake @ Sac R
Chan 281@ 0San Joaquin R @ mouthChan 286@ 0.75*length
New York SloughChan 288 @ middle
Middle Slough Chan 289 @ middle
Sherman Lake @ SJR Chan 295 @ length
Mayberry CutChan 299 @ 0.9*length
Mayberry Slough Chan 283 @ 0.9*length
“Confluence Study 1998”Permanent Flow Permanent Flow Monitoring NetworkMonitoring NetworkUSGSUSGS
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
• Managers were frustrated with modelers
• Availability of new Delta flow data
• Availability of new Delta bathymetry data
NorthDelta
CentralDeltaBathymetry data
collected in 1999-2000
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Motivation for 1996-2001 DSM2 Calibration PWT
• Managers were frustrated with modelers
• Availability of new Delta flow data
• Availability of new Delta bathymetry data
• Recognition of the need for consensus among Bay-Delta modelers that DSM2 is accurate enough for the questions we ask of it.
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DRAFTFinal Report
Enhanced Calibration and Validation of DSM2 HYDRO and QUAL
byDSM2 Project Work Team
Technical Report XXNovember 2001
Interagency Ecological Programfor the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary
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DSM2 Project Work Team
Chapter II
• Need for DSM2 PWT
• Need for a new 1D Bay-Delta Model
• Need for Consensus Calibration/Validation of Models
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DSM2 Project Work Team
Chapter III
• New 1D Model Search Process
Chapter IV
• Development of DSM2 Modeling System by DWR
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition• Open Water Area Modeling
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition• Open Water Area Modeling • Geometry Development Mechanics
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition• Open Water Area Modeling • Geometry Development Mechanics • Verification of Hydro and Qual (convergence
analysis)
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition• Open Water Area Modeling • Geometry Development Mechanics • Verification of Hydro and Qual (convergence
analysis)• Forcing Due To Density Gradients
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality
Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream
Boundary Condition• Open Water Area Modeling • Geometry Development Mechanics • Verification of Hydro and Qual (convergence
analysis)• Forcing Due To Density Gradients• Optimization Approach to Calibration
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DSM2 Project Work TeamIssue Deliberation
Chapter V• Selection of a Conservative Water Quality Tracer• Use of Surface Salinity as Downstream Boundary
Condition• Open Water Area Modeling • Geometry Development Mechanics • Verification of Hydro and Qual (convergence
analysis)• Forcing Due To Density Gradients• Optimization Approach to Calibration • Momentum Transfer at Nodes
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DSM2 Project Work TeamInput Data and Data Reliability
Chapter VI
• Stage data
• Flow data
• Salinity data
• DICU data
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DSM2 Project Work TeamGeometry Development
Chapter VII
• Bathymetry data collection programs
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DSM2 Project Work TeamGeometry Development
Chapter VII
• Bathymetry data collection programs
• Historical bathymetry data and common coordinate systems
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DSM2 Project Work TeamGeometry Development
Chapter VII
• Bathymetry data collection programs
• Historical bathymetry data and common coordinate systems
• Geometry data viewer (CSDP)
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DSM2 Project Work TeamGeometry Development
Chapter VII
• Bathymetry data collection programs
• Historical bathymetry data and common coordinate systems
• Geometry data viewer (CSDP)
• Historical barrier configurations
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DSM2 Project Work TeamGeometry Development
Chapter VII
• Bathymetry data collection programs
• Historical bathymetry data and common coordinate systems
• Geometry data viewer (CSDP)
• Historical barrier configurations
• Approach to development of DSM2 geometry…
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DSM2 Project Work Team DSM2 geometry
• How DSM2 Uses Cross-Section Data
• Sources of bathymetry and geometry error
• Using the CSDP for channel cross-section design
• Example: preserving plan area in Suisun Bay
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Generating DSM2 Channel Geometry in Suisun Bay
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Generating DSM2 Channel Geometry in Suisun Bay
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Process
Chapter VIII
• PWT Web-Site
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Process
Chapter VIII
• PWT Web-Site
• HYDRO Calibration Web Site
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Process
Chapter VIII
• PWT Web-Site
• HYDRO Calibration Web Site
• QUAL Calibration Web Site
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Process
Chapter VIII
• PWT Web-Site
• HYDRO Calibration Web Site
• QUAL Calibration Web Site
• Calibration Outputs
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Process
Chapter VIII
• PWT Web-Site
• HYDRO Calibration Web Site
• QUAL Calibration Web Site
• Calibration Outputs
• PWT Calibration Logistics
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Approach
Chapter IX
• Regions of constant Manning’s n
DSM2 Calibration IEP DSM2 PWT
Initial Regions of
Constant Mannings n
DSM2 Calibration IEP DSM2 PWT
Final Regions of
Constant Mannings n
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Approach
Chapter IX
• Regions of constant Manning’s n
• Geometry modification for calibration
(Geometry isn’t untouchable)
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Approach
Chapter IX
• Regions of constant Manning’s n
• Geometry modification for calibration
• Choice of historical calibration periods
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Approach
Chapter IX
• Regions of constant Manning’s n
• Geometry modification for calibration
• Choice of historical calibration periods
• Goodness-of-fit measuresProposed Error Indices for Field/Model Stage Data
Comparisons
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100 109 118 127 136 145 154 163 172 181 190
Time
Sta
ge (
ft)
f ield model
Phase error
Amplitude error
RMS error = [ (model(n) – field(n))**2]**1/2 (n**1/2)
Root mean square error of model datacompared to field data. Point by pointcalculation over entire period of record.
Amplitude error = [ (model(max) – field(max))] 2
Amplitude error of model data ascompared to maximum field stage.Average difference in feet over one tidecycle.
Phase error = [ (T(model) – T(field))] 2
Error in timing of peak model stage ascompared to peak field stage. Averagedifference in minutes over one tidecycle.
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Results
Chapter X
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Results
Chapter X
• HYDRO
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DSM2 Project Work TeamCalibration Results
Chapter X
• HYDRO
• QUAL
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Let’s do it again!