overview of disaster risk assessment study of asean (sujit mohanty)

8/3/2019 Overview of Disaster Risk Assessment Study of ASEAN (Sujit Mohanty)

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Disaster Risks Assessment of the ASEANCountries

Adapted from the presentation made by RMSI


2/19

Agenda

cope o e s u y

Background

Key Study Findings

Disasters

Vulnerability

Social Vulnerability

Economic Vulnerability

Urban Vulnerability

Limitations of the study

Wa Forward and recomendations


3/19

Scope of study

Part of the memorandum of cooperation (MoC) between ASEAN

Secretariat, World Bank and UNISDR under the AADMER

Based on desk review of existing data, studies, maps, analyses andassessments

Review of existing hazard vulnerability and economic data at country and

re ional level

Main data sources consulted are:

CRED EM-DAT, ADRC, NGI, GSHAP, MRC, WAMIS, Munich Re,

World Bank, GAR, InTerragate, IFNet, CCFSC, DesInventar and

countr re orts


4/19

Study Area: ASEAN


5/19

Country Risk Profiles: Criteria

- - -

Reported disaster data for various hazards- used for risk assessment

-

Country-level Socio-economic Indicators Sources: World Fact Book (CIA, 2010;http://www.cia.gov); the World Bank (2010; http://web.worldbank.org); Asian

, . . . .http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/); and IMF (http://www.imf.org)

Criteria for a disaster event (EM-DAT)

10 or more people reported killed

100 people reported affected

Call for international assistance


6/19

Country Overview : Indonesia (as an Example)..

Countr -level Information 2009Geographic Area (km2) 2,724,900

Population 15,480,000Population density 6

Population growth (annual %) 1.1

Urban population (% of total) 56 (2006)

Poverty headcount ratio, USD 2 aday (PPP) (% of population)

13.8

GDP (current USD) (billion) 103.84

GDP growth (annual %) 8.5

GNI per capita, PPP.(USD) 9,700

Agricultural GDP (%) 7Industry GDP (%) 44

Forest Fire3%

Service GDP (%) 49Human Development Index (HDI) 0.807 (2006)

Disaster Risk Statistics (1970-2009)

Disaster type No. of Total Deaths/ Relative

Flood36%Landslide

12%

Volcano10%

sasters/year no. odeaths year vu nera ty(deaths/ year/million)

Flood 3.20 5,420 135.50 0.56

Drought 0.20 1,329 33.23 0.14

Storm 0.23 1,692 42.30 0.18

Drought2%

StormE idemicTsunami

Earthquake24%

Percentage distribution of reported disasters

in Indonesia

Epidemic 0.83 3,886 97.15 0.40

Tsunami 0.08 83,525 2088.13 8.69

Earthquake 2.10 97,166 2429.15 10.11Landslide 1.03 1,845 46.13 0.19

Volcano 0.93 661 16.53 0.07Wildfire 0.23 300 7.50 0.03

9%1%


7/19

Country Profile: Indonesia

mongs e , n ones a s one o e mosvulnerable countries to natural hazards

September 1997 Forest fire of Sumatra Island killed240 eo le affected 32 070 eo le and caused an

Flood83.5

roug15.7 Landslide

3.6

Volcano20.6

Tsunami113.0

estimated loss of $8.0 billion

The December 26, 2004 earthquake (magnitude9.1) and tsunami events killed 165,708 people,

Forest Fire440.1

Earthquake249.9

Average annual economic loss ($ million) of Indonesia

a ec e more an . m on peop e an cause aneconomic loss of $4.45 billion

Earthquakes and tsunamis (combined) causedmaximum deaths 180 691 followed b floods

Economic Loss Potential

Annual exceedanceprobability

Economic loss($ million)

Percentage toGDP (2009)

(5,420), landslides (1,845). It also caused the highesteconomic loss ($9.412 billion) in last 40 years

Floods had the highest frequency (3.20), followed

0.5% 10,639.52 1.105.0% 3,623.14 0.3720.0% 1,314.69 0.14

y ear qua es . , an s es . anvolcanoes (0.93)

The relative vulnerability was highest forearth uakes 10.11 followed b tsunamis 8.69 andfloods (0.56)


8/19

Country Profile: Indonesia(Contd.)

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Disaster events and number of deaths(by 5 years- period)

Disaster events and affected population(by 5 years- period)

Disaster events and economic loss(5- year period)

E


9/19

Key study findings -

- s ory o evas a ng sas ers w uge soc o-econom c osses Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including:

Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts, forest-fires

- , , , ,

epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths

E

arthqua

k

e

F

lood

Landslid

e

D

rought

S

torm

(

typhoon

/ c

clones

V

olcano

F

orest

F

ire

T

sunami

Brunei X X X X X X

Cambodia X XXX X XX X X

Indonesia XXX XXX XXX XX XX XXX XX XXX

Lao PDR X XXX XX XX XX X X

Mala sia X XXX XX X X XX X

Myanmar XX XXX XX XX XXX X X

Philippines XXX XXX XXX XX XXX XX X X

Singapore X XX X

Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN

a an X XXX XX XX XX X X

Vietnam X XXX XX XX XXX X X

ASEAN XX XXX XX XX XXX XX XX XX


10/19

Key study findings(Cont.)

Reported disasters: 36% - floods, 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% -earthquakes, 7% -Landslides

Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk patterns:

Country Risk Patterns

Cambodia Floods represent the dominant risk followed by drought

Indonesiaores w res, ear qua es an sunam s represen e om nan r s o owe

by floods, volcanoes, droughts, and; landslides

Lao PDR Cyclonic storms, floods and drought are the dominant risksa ays a oo an ores res are e om nan r s

MyanmarCyclonic storms are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, floods and forest-fires

Philippines, ,

volcanoes, landslides, and droughts

Thailand Floods are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, and storms

Vietnam Storms are the dominant risk followed by floods, and droughts

Brunei andSingapore

No disaster data is available


11/19

Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV)

- .

Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5 times that ofIndonesia (the second highest)

SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand,

Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia

CountryPopulation(Millions)

Total Killed(1970-2009)

Combined Disaster Risk fromNatural hazards

Killed per

year

(Killed per year)

per million.

Cambodia 14.49 2,063 52 3.56

Indonesia 240.27 195,824 4,896 20.38

Laos 6.83 1,155 29 4.22

Malaysia 25.71 1,300 33 1.26

Myanmar 48.137 139,317 3,483 72.35Philippines 97.97 46,761 1,169 11.93

Singapore 4.65

Thailand 65.99 12,215 305 4.63

Vietnam 88.57 16,292 407 4.60

ASEAN 593.05 414,927 10,373 17.49

Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN


12/19

Key Findings Economic Vulnerability (EV)

from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking)

EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an event with a200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country GDP

Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam,

Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried out for

Brunei and Sin a ore

Indonesia

ASEAN

USD Million

Laos

Myanmar

Percent of GDP

Malaysia

Vietnam

Philippines

Myanmar

Thailand

Thailand

Philippines

Vietnam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Cambodia

Laos

- 5,000 10,000 15,000

Malaysia

ASEAN

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.00

Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent


13/19

Key Findings Urban Vulnerability

n erms o ear qua e r s , an a s a g es r s o owe y a ar a, angon, ang o , anHo chi minh

Taking into account the cities hazard zonation and populations, earthquakes represent asubstantially greater risk than floods and landslides

In terms of flood risk, Manila is also at highest risk followed by Jakarta, Bangkok, Ho chi minh,and HaNoi

In terms of Overall risks from these hazards, Manila is at highest risk, followed by Jakarta,Yangon, Ho chi minh, Bangkok, HaNoi, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Naypyidaw, Phnom Penh,Vientiane, and Bandar Seri Begawan

16 Population growth trend in major cities

Population trend in ASEAN major cities (1950 - 2030)

10

11

12

13

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15

nmillions

Phnom Penh

Jakarta

Vientiane

Kuala Lumpur

Nay Pyi Taw

3

4

5

6

7

8

Populatio

ni

Manila

Singapore

Bangkok

Ha noi

0

1

2


14/19

Hazard Risk Management Framework Status of ASEAN

#14


15/19

Limitations of the study

Not rigorous as probabilistic risk assessment

De endent on availabilit of historical loss data

Damage estimates of large catastrophic events tends to be over estimated

And for small and medium scale events underestimated

Accuracy and completeness of historical data (e.g. historical data on,

data is desirable for such analysis)


16/19

Way Forward

Addition Analyses:

Three levels to further refine the results

Should emphasize more on Floods, Typhoons, and Earthquakes and

Tsunamis - most damaging quick-onset disasters

should be repeated at a higher level of resolution

Level 2: Using the same methodology, worst-case scenarios should be

considered for highly populated cities

Level 3: Fully probabilistic analysis containing all elements of standard risk

analysis should be performed for the hazards and regions identified as highrisk in levels 1 and 2


17/19

Way Forward

Drought hazard should be addressed in the context of climate change and long-termadaptation strategies should be considered

Climate risk assessment study should merge traditional risk assessments with

climate change assessments

#17


18/19

www.preventionweb.net/files/18872_asean.pdf


19/19

overview of disaster risk assessment study of asean (sujit mohanty)

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