Overview of People Movement and Migration inNorthern Ireland22nd March 2018

Outline

These slides provide an analysis of the EU27 population living in Northern Ireland with specific reference to the movement of people between Northern Ireland, Ireland and Great Britain.

• Movements of people between Northern Ireland and Great Britain / Ireland areextensive. People make journeys for a wide variety of reasons including to work,study, shop, tourism, or visit friends and family.

• Migration refers to the movement of people who live outside Northern Ireland(Great Britain, Ireland and the Rest of the World) to come to Northern Ireland withthe intention of staying here for one year or more.

These slides compliment previously published statistical material on EU trade with Northern Ireland

Movement of People

Population

Northern Ireland 1,862,000

Ireland 4,762,000

Island of Ireland 6,624,000

Great Britain 63,786,000

UK 65,648,000

UK & Ireland 70,410,000

2016 Mid Year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland (as at 30 June 2016), NISRA

Ireland Population and Migration Estimates, 2016 (as at 30 April 2016), CSO

Population of Northern Ireland, Great Britain,UK, Ireland and Island of Ireland 2016

Population Estimates for UK, GB: mid-2016 (as at 30 June 2016), ONS

Source: Northern Ireland Census 2011, NISRA

Number of residents living in Northern Ireland who were born in Ireland by Ward, 2011

In 2011, 38,000 residents born in Ireland (2% of the population)

Note: maps all drawn on quintile basis

• Of the 38,000 Northern Ireland residents born in Irelandthe largest numbers live in Derry City & Strabane (18%)and Belfast (16%) councils

• The five border councils have 23,000 residents who wereborn in Ireland

• The map shows the distribution of local residents born inIreland throughout Northern Ireland (2011 Census)

Source: Northern Ireland Census 2011, NISRA

In 2011, 45,000 residents born in EU26 countries (3% of the population)

• Of the 45,000 Northern Ireland residents born in theEU 26 the largest numbers live in Belfast (19%) andArmagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon (17%) councils

• The map shows the distribution of local residentsborn in the EU26 throughout Northern Ireland (2011Census)

Note: maps all drawn on quintile basis

Number of residents living in Northern Ireland who were born in EU26 by Ward, 2011

Source: Northern Ireland Census 2011, NISRA

In 2011, 83,000 residents born in Great Britain (5% of the population)

• Of the 83,000 Northern Ireland residents born inGreat Britain, the largest numbers live in Belfast(16%) and Ards & North Down (13%) councils

• The map shows the distribution of local residentsborn in Great Britain throughout Northern Ireland(2011 Census)

Note: maps all drawn on quintile basis

Number of residents living in Northern Ireland who were born in GB by Ward, 2011

79,000 People born in EU26 and resident in Northern Ireland

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU26 Employed EU26

79,000

57,000

Source: Labour Force Survey, NISRA

In October – December 2016 it was estimated that there were:

• 79,000 persons resident in NIborn in EU26 with 71,000 aged16 or over. Of these 57,000(80%) were employed andworking in NI

• 1,455,000 total personsresident in NI aged 16 or over.Of these 841,000 (58%) wereemployed and working in NI

Northern Ireland Residents born in EU26 (2007-2016) and Employed in Northern Ireland (2016)

38,000 People born in Ireland and resident in Northern Ireland

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU26 Employed EU26 IE Employed IE

79,000

57,000

Source: Labour Force Survey, NISRA

In October – December 2016 it was estimated that there were:

• 38,000 persons resident in NI born in Ireland with 37,000 aged 16 or over. Of these 21,000 (57%) were employed and working in NI

• 1,455,000 total persons resident in NI aged 16 or over. Of these 841,000 (58%) were employed and working in NI

Northern Ireland Residents born in Ireland and EU26 (2007-2016) and Employed in Northern Ireland (2016)

38,000

21,000

1: Department for Infrastructure (DfI) Transport Model2: DfI Transport Model using vehicle classification mix from the 15 border crossing points on Transport Infrastructure Ireland3: Censuses of Northern Ireland and Ireland 20114: External Overnight Trips to Northern Ireland 2016, NISRA; Visitor Facts and Figures 2016, Tourism Ireland

• 14% are HGV / LGV crossings

• 7% of people regularly commute across the border for work and study

• 5% are overnight tourism trips

• 74% are classed as other, which may include:

• Other business purposes

• Visiting friends and relatives

• Shopping

• Medical treatment

• Tourism day trips

• Further travel e.g. to get to an airport

• Other reasons

NI↔IE border – 110 millionperson crossings per annum

*Traffic counters are located at the 15 Principal Northern Ireland-Ireland crossing points**Breakdown is an estimate based on other sources applied to the DfI Transport Model

7%

5%

14%

74%

110mPerson

Crossings1

Commuting for work / study3

Overnight Tourism4

HGV/LGV2

Other

NI-IE Border - Person Crossings by Purpose 2016*

NI↔IE border - 72 million vehicle crossings per annum

91%

9%

Other Vehicles2

HGV1

An estimated 72 million NI-IE border vehicle crossings per annum. Of these:

• 66 million (91%) were classed as Other Vehicles - cars, motorcycles, LGVs and caravans, etc…

• 6.4 million (9%) were classed as HGV vehicles (including buses)

NI-IE Border - Vehicle Crossings by Type 2016

72mVehicle

Crossings

Source: DfI Transport Model and Internal Analysis of Transport Infrastructure Ireland data

1: HGVs and Buses2: Cars, Motorcycles, LGVs, Caravans, Trade Vehicles

1: NI Air Passenger Statistics 2016, NISRA2: Port Freight Statistics: 2016 final figures (revised), Department for Transport3: Statistics of Port Traffic 2016, CSO

• In 2016, 8.3 million (35%) Irish Sea person crossings using Northern Ireland air and sea ports; of these:

• 6.2 million (27%) used NI airports

• 2.1 million (9%) used NI sea-ports

• In 2016, 15.2 million (65%) Irish Sea person crossings using Ireland air and sea ports; of these:

• 12.8 million (55%) used IE airports

• 2.4 million (10%) used IE sea-ports

Irish Sea (IE/NI↔GB) 23 million person crossings per annum

27%

9%55%

10%

NI GB Air1

NI GB Sea2

IE GB Air1

IE GB Sea3

Irish Sea - Person Crossings by Route 2016

23mPerson

Crossings

1: HGVs and Buses2: Cars, Motorcycles, LGVs, Caravans, Trade Vehicles

Irish Sea (IE/NI↔GB) 3.1 million vehicle crossings per annum

60%40%Other Vehicles2

HGVs1

An estimated 3.1 million Irish Sea (IE/NI↔GB) vehicle crossings per annum. Of these:

• 1.9 million (60%) were classed as HGV vehicles (including buses)

• 1.2 million (40%) were classed as Other Vehicles such as cars, motorcycles, LGVs, caravans, etc…..

There were a further 184,000 air traffic movements between airports in NI/IE and GB; and 46,000 arrivals and departures from NI and IE sea ports.

Irish Sea - Vehicle Crossings by Type 2016

3.1mVehicle

Crossings

Port Freight Statistics: 2016 final figures (revised), Department for TransportStatistics of Port Traffic 2016, CSOUK Airport Data, Civil Aviation AuthorityAviation Statistics, CSO

Movement of People:

North-South:• Estimated total NI↔IE border crossings per annum:

• 110 million persons & 72 million vehicles• 66 million Other Vehicles (cars, motorcycles, LGVs and caravans)• 6.4 million HGVs & Buses

East-West:• Estimated total Irish Sea (IE/NI↔GB) crossings per annum:

• 23 million persons & 3.1 million vehicles• 1.2 million Other Vehicles (cars, motorcycles, trade vehicles, LGVs and caravans)• 1.9 million HGVs and buses

• There were a further 184,000 air traffic movements between NI/IE-GB airports; and 46,000 arrivalsand departures from NI/IE sea ports

Summary

Population Migration

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU26 Employed EU26 IE Employed IE

79,000

57,000

Source: Labour Force Survey, NISRA

In October – December 2016 it was estimated that there were:

• 79,000 persons resident in NI born in EU26 with 71,000 aged 16 or over. Of these 57,000 (80%) were employed and working in NI

• 38,000 persons resident in NI born in Ireland with 37,000 aged 16 or over. Of these 21,000 (57%) were employed and working in NI

• 1,455,000 total persons resident in NI aged 16 or over. Of these 841,000 (58%) were employed and working in NI

Northern Ireland Residents born in Ireland and EU26 (2007-2016) and Employed in Northern Ireland (2016)

38,000

21,000

79,000 People born in EU26 and resident in Northern Ireland

Long-term decline in births in Northern Ireland to mothers born in GB

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

GB

1,756 (7%)

1,052 (4%)

Births in Northern Ireland to Mothers born in Great Britain1997-2016

Registrar General Annual Report 2016 Births, NISRA 2017

1,052 births in Northern Ireland to mothers from GB in 2016 - this is a fall from 1,756 births in 1997

7% of all births in 19974% of all births in 2016

In total 24,100 births in NI in 2016

Small fall in births in Northern Irelandto mothers born in Ireland

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

GB IE

1,756 (7%)

618 (3%)723 (3%)

1,052 (4%)

Births in Northern Ireland to Mothers born in Great Britain and Ireland1997-2016

Registrar General Annual Report 2016 Births, NISRA 2017

618 births to mothers from IE in 2016; down from 723 births in 1997

3% of all births in 19973% of all births in 2016

In total 24,100 births in NI in 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

GB IE EU26

1,590 (7%)

176 (1%)

1,756 (7%)

618 (3%)723 (3%)

1,052 (4%)

Births in Northern Ireland to Mothers born in Great Britain, Ireland and EU26 Countries 1997-2016

Registrar General Annual Report 2016 Births, NISRA 2017

Large rise in births in Northern Irelandto mother born in EU26 countries

1,590 births to mothers from EU26 countries; up from 176 births in 1997

1% of all births in 19977% of all births in 2016

In total 24,100 births in NI in 2016

Large rise seen after 2004 EU expansion

Proportions of Skill Level of Occupation and Country of Birth Groups Employed in Northern Ireland Q4 2015 – Q3 2016 (aged 16-64)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Upper middle Lower middle Low

UK Non-UK (exc. IE)

Source: Labour Force Survey, NISRA

UK-born people living and working in Northern Ireland more likely to work in higher skilled jobs

Survey estimates show that in 2015-16 that:

• UK born people living and working inNorthern Ireland are more likely towork in higher skilled jobs than non-UK born counterparts

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

UK Ire EU Non-EU Total Emp

Change in Employment by Country of Birth in Northern Ireland Q1 2008 – Q3 2017 (aged 16-64)

Employment growth since 2014 supported by migrant labour

Employment fell by 40,000 between Q1 2008 and Q2 2009(impact of financial crisis)

By 2014 employment levels were at pre crisis levels

By 2016 employment had risen by nearly 40,000

Since 2014 employment recovery driven by people born in EU26 now living in Northern Ireland

Source: Labour Force Survey, NISRA

IE EU26

In October-December 2016, it is estimated that:• 38,000 persons resident in NI were born in Ireland with 37,000 aged 16 or over. Of these

21,000 (57%) were employed and working in NI

• 79,000 persons resident in NI were born in EU26 countries with 71,000 aged 16 or over. Ofthese 57,000 (80%) were employed and working in NI.

• UK born people living and working in NI are more likely to work in higher skilled jobs

Over the longer-term• There has been a long-term decline in births here to mothers from GB – down from 1,756

births in 1997 to 1,052 births in 2016

• There has been a large rise in births here to mothers born in EU26 countries – up from 176births in 1997 to 1,590 births in 2016

• Recent employment growth has been driven by people from EU26 now living and working here

Migration summary

Cross Border Higher Education

15% Non-NI Students at NI Higher Education Institutions in 2015/16

55,245Students

• In 2015/16 - 55,200 students were enrolled in NI Higher Education Institutions. Of these:• 47,200 (85%) were from Northern Ireland• 2,900 (5%) were from Great Britain• 2,200 (4%) were from Ireland• 400 (1%) were from EU26• 2,600 (5%) were from the Rest of the World

• In 2016/17, there were 1,900 Ireland domiciled students at the three NI Furth. Education Colleges near the border - 6% of their student intake

Proportion of Students Enrolled in NI Higher Education Institutions by Domicile 2015/16

85%

4%5%

1%5%

NI

IE

GB

EU26

Rest of World

Enrolments at UK Higher Education Institutions: Northern Ireland Analysis 2016/2017, Department for the Economy

Tourism

2.6 million external overnight trips &£614 million spent in NI in 2016

External Overnight Trips to Northern Ireland 2016, NISRA

2.6m External

Overnight Trips 2016

Great Britain

Ireland

12%

45%

54%14%

18%

15%

Other Europe

Other Overseas

Visiting friends/ relatives

Holiday

Business

Other

2.6m External

Overnight Trips 2016

50%

13%

33%

4%

• 2.6 million external overnight trips to NorthernIreland in 2016

• 85% of overnight visitors were from GB, Irelandand Other Europe

• £614 million spent by visitors on overnight trips –equal to 2% of NI’s GVA (Gross Value Added) of£37.2 billion

• 844,000 external overnight holiday trips byvisitors

• 342,000 external overnight business trips byvisitors

External Overnight Trips to Northern Ireland by Place of Origin 2016

External Overnight Trips to Northern Ireland by Reason for Visit 2016

64% of visitors from Outside UK & IE come through IE ports

Northern Ireland Annual Tourism Statistics 2016, NISRA

1.4m GB

Overnight Trips 2016

NI Air / Sea Ports IE Air / Sea ports

12%

45%

43%91%

9%

0.7m Outside UK & IE Overnight Trips 2016

36%64%

• 64% of Outside UK & Ireland visitors used an air or sea port in Ireland

• 91% of GB visitors came directly to NI using a Northern Ireland air or sea port

Great Britain and Outside UK & Ireland Overnight Trips to Northern Ireland by Place of Departure 2016

Great Britain Outside UK & Ireland

The following table provides information on the different area groupings used in this report:

Area Grouping

NI Northern Ireland

GB Great Britain

UK Great Britain, Northern Ireland

IE Ireland

EU26 Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden

EU27 EU26, Ireland

EU EU27, UK

Note: Whilst the extent of the EU has changed over time, the definition of EU26 above has been taken throughout this report

Overview of People Movement and Migration inNorthern Ireland22nd March 2018