overview of the regional technical forum guidelines january 22, 2013
DESCRIPTION
Overview of the Regional Technical Forum Guidelines January 22, 2013. After A Decade of Making Decisions the RTF Recently “Codified” Its Decision-Making Process. Why Guidelines For Estimating Savings?. RTF Mission Reliable estimates of savings Transparent methods for estimating savings - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Overview of theRegional Technical Forum
Guidelines
January 22, 2013
After A Decade of Making Decisions the RTF Recently “Codified” Its
Decision-Making Process
Why Guidelines For Estimating Savings?
• RTF Mission– Reliable estimates of savings– Transparent methods for estimating savings
• RTF operated for 10 years transparently but its “rule book” evolved with experience
• RTF needed to capture its current best practices to ensure more consistent decision-making and operations
RESEARCH QUANTIFY DELIVER VERIFY
Brief History and Coming Events
• Guidelines Development– RTF identified need to codify guidance on how it does its
work– Developed and tested guidelines for savings estimation
methods. – Second version adopted 12-11-2013– Also, developed guidance on how to estimate measure cost
and lifetime• Next Steps
– Developing an overall Roadmap and integrating all guidelines and supporting tools
Guidelines Scope and Intent• Describe how the RTF selects, develops and maintains
approved methods for estimating savings from the delivery of energy efficiency measures
• Four savings estimation methods:– Unit Energy Savings (UES) – RTF Decides on
– Standard Protocols – RTF Decides on
– Custom Measure Protocols– RTF provides guidance on
– Program Impact Evaluations – RTF provides guidance on
• Each method is intended to produce savings estimates of “comparable reliability” at the lowest reasonable cost
Key Concepts – Measure and Savings
• Measure– …changes in system configuration, equipment specifications or
operating practices – …reduces electric power consumption as a result of increases in the
efficiency of energy use, production, or distribution• Savings
– …difference in energy use between the baseline and post periods– … caused by the delivery of a measure– …terms “net” or “gross” are intentionally not used
Savings Reliability and Diligent Review
• Savings Reliability– …sampling, data collection and other errors are sufficiently small and
unbiased. – Sufficiency is determined by the collective opinion of the RTF
• Diligent Review– RTF uses estimates of parameters, e.g., average length of a residential
shower or heat/cool interaction factors, from studies performed by other agencies
– Diligent review required before use
Diligent Review
• Diligent review includes, but is not limited to understanding– characteristics of the sample studied– study’s data collection methods and analysis methods– variability of parameter estimates– feasibility of normalizing results to this region
Best Practice Savings Estimate
• Best Practice Savings Estimate– …relies on the best practical and reliable data collection and
estimation methods– …can be carried out with proven techniques and resources deemed
reasonable by the RTF– …may rely on parameter values from studies performed by other
agencies, if found to be sufficiently reliable based on diligent review.
Two Possible Measure Baselines
• Current Practice Baseline– …used if the measure affects systems, equipment or practices that are
at the end of their useful life– …includes measures delivering new equipment or practices– …baseline is defined by the recent typical choices of eligible end users
in purchasing new equipment and services• Pre-Conditions Baseline
– …used when the measure-affected equipment or practice still has remaining useful life
– …defined by typical existing conditions found among eligible end users – For custom measures choices of individual end users define typical
current practice conditions
Transparency and Accessibility
• All methods have documentation standards• Sources must be cited• Data and documents must be accessible• Must show your work
– Estimation algorithms– Derivation of input parameters– Software must be either inherently transparent, such as a Microsoft
Excel® workbook or fully documented
Method 1 - Unit Energy Savings (UES)
• RTF approves measure methods and savings values• Stable, unitized savings that can be reliably forecast
through the period defined by the measure’s sunset date• Reduce program delivery costs by simplifying the data
that must be collected– Verified count of delivered units is all that is required– Statistical or meta-statistical analysis used to reliably estimate
savings• Examples:
CFL Res. Insulation
Getting to Unitized Savings (UES)*• Statistical or meta-statistical data
– Quality judged by relative error of mean savings estimate– Avoid when savings significantly interact with other measures due to
large sample needs• Calibrated engineering models
– Adjusted to individual cases or to the average characteristics and consumption of groups
• Ex. SEEM heating loads calibrated to billing data from representative sample of SF homes
– Savings expected to be regionally applicable– Significant interactions need to be dealt with
• Planning/Provisional provides a path
*The savings formerly known as “deemed”
Method 2 - Standard Protocols
• RTF approves saving estimation method• Intended for measures with widely varying savings, but
where data collection and analysis can be standardized• Site-specific data collection and analysis is the minimum
required for a reliable savings estimation– Known as simplest reliable savings estimation method, +/- 20% error
that is unbiased compared to best practice
• Data collection standardized and savings calculator developed for each protocol
• Examples:
T8 Lighting VFD
Method 3 - Custom Protocols• RTF provides guidance on appropriate methods and
documentation standard• Appropriate for measures that require site-specific
savings estimation planning, data collection and analysis – Likely numerous components affecting operation,
maintenance, and energy use of many separate systems or pieces of equipment
• Savings report required• Example:
Energy Management System (EMS)
Method 4 – Program Impact Evaluation
• RTF provides guidance on appropriate methods and documentation standard
• Based on reliable sample of program participants (and possibly non-participants) to determine the savings achieved during a program delivery period– UES claim & delivery; Standard Protocol faithfully applied
• Rely on the other three methods, plus guidance provided for “Other UES” measures
• Examples: O-POWER
Measure Category/Quality Standards
• Statistical or calibrated engineering data are available and reliable to characterize both the baseline and efficient-case energy consumption for measure-affected end uses
Proven
• RTF approves with special conditions requiring the collection of data from all or a sample of specific measure applications to improve savings estimation
Provisional
• Peer reviewed by RTF for measures with regional applicability and reasonable expectation that data will be collected to bring measure through an RTF path in the future
Planning
• RTF approves based on sound engineering analysis and applicability to the region and because cost to obtain quality data outweighs expected regional savings potential
Small Saver
Guidelines Measure StatusAc
tive
• Measure meets all requirements set forth in Guidelines
Und
er R
evie
w• Errors need
to be corrected
• Calculation updates with new identified data sources
• Calculation updates with data to be developed or sought O
ut o
f Com
plia
nce
• Lack of data sources identified that can bring the savings estimations into guideline compliance
• 1 year to bring research plan to RTF for review
De-a
ctiva
ted
• Inadequate data exists to bring into compliance with Guidelines
• Federal/State codes require target efficiency level
Sunset Date
• As part of approving a UES or standard protocol measure, the RTF will establish a sunset date for the measure
• Beyond this date, the RTF may decide that the measure’s savings estimation method is no longer RTF-approved.
• …RTF records factors that justify each sunset date…– revisions to energy codes or federal standards– completion of RTF approved research plans– shifts in current practices of consumers
Provisional Category and Research Planning
• Defined for UES and Standard Protocol• RTF approves plans for research needed to
advance provisional measure to the proven category
• Provisional UES measures need data on efficient-case energy use
• Provisional standard protocol measures need data to prove simplest reliable method
Development of Application of RTF-Savings Estimation Methods
Prioritize and Classify
UESCollect provisional
data
Standard
Custom
Standard Protocols
Protocols for custom measures
Data available to prove savings
reliability
No
Yes
Program Impact Evaluation
New measures from regional R&D / program
plannning
Measure Specifications
Guidelines for program impact
evaluations
Research design and RTF peer review
Maintain and update according to sunset date
Legacy UES measures approved
before 6/1/2011
Approve measure
categories
Provisional
Proven
Planning
Small Saver
Maintain and update
according to sunset date
Program portfolios
including other- UES measures
Research to collect baseline and efficient
case UES measure data
UES savings values
Prove simplest reliable method
Cost and Lifetime Guidelines
• RTF also approved guidelines for measure cost and lifetime estimation in 2011
• Capital and O&M costs along with a measure’s expected useful lifetime are used by the RTF in evaluating regional cost-effectiveness using the ProCost model
• Program operators may use these values in performing their own cost-effectiveness analyses