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Pacific Classic

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Del Mar Handicap$250,000 – Grade 2

Stats & TrendsLast 10 Del Mar Handicap Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Ashleyluvssugar G. Stevens 2015 Big John B R. Bejarano2014 Big John B M. Smith 2013 Vagabond Shoes V. Espinoza2012 Casino Host J. Talamo2011 Celtic New Year V. Espinoza 2010 Champ Pegasus J. Rosario2009 Spring House A. Solis 2008 Spring House C. Nakatani 2007 After Market A. Solis

Know ThisPlay the Chalk? The favorite has won the Del Mar Handicap in six of the last 11 years and has finished in the Exacta 10 out of 11 times since 2006.

Déjà vu: A victory by Ashleyluvssugar would make him just the fourth horse to win back-to-back editions of the Del Mar Handicap, but the third horse to accomplish the feat since 2008. Spring House (2008 & 2009) and Big John B (2014 & 2015) each won the race twice in the last 10 years.

Passable Form: Since 1997, the winner of the Del Mar Handicap has lost their most recent race 14 times. The most popular stepping stone to a Del Mar Handicap score is the Eddie Read Stakes, which produced seven winners in that span. Amazingly, six of those seven horses had lost the Eddie Read.

Post Time: 8:13 PM ET3YO+1 3/8 Miles Turf

Déjà vu at Del Mar

Del Mar Handicap

Picks

1. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR 2. ITSINTHEPOST (FR) 3. LIAM THE CHARMER 4. FLAMBOYANT (FR)

Analysis: California’s turf marathon division continues to portray itself as an enigma, with different horses seemingly always ready to take ‘their turn’ and step up and win a marquee stakes race. This year alone, ITSINTHEPOST won the San Luis Rey, ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR took the Charlie Whittingham, HUNT won the Eddie Read and INORDINATE scored in the San Juan Capistrano. With such parity in the division, identifying one horse to get the job done in the Del Mar Handicap won’t be an easy task.

Main Contenders: Defending champion ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR loves Del Mar, as evidenced by his 5-1-4-0 local record. He enters this year’s Del Mar ‘Cap in nearly identical form as last year, and exits a race, the 1 1/8-mile Eddie Read, that may have just been a little short for him. HUNT, the horse that beat him in the ‘Read, will be running a quarter-mile farther than he ever has, which makes him a bet-against in our eyes. ITSINTHEPOST was 5th last out in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth, but crossed the wire in a blanket finish with Beach Patrol, who went on to win the Arlington Million. He’s 0-for-7 at Del Mar, but he should be right there at the finish. BIG JOHN B won this race in 2015 and 2014, but the now eight-year-old is 0-for-4 this year and has not won on the lawn in two years.

Value Plays: LIAM THE CHARMER always runs an OK race, but always seems to be gobbling up ground a little too late. He was 8th last out in the United Nations, but was only 2-lengths behind ITSINTHEPOST that day. He was beaten ¾-length by ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR in the Whittingham and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he landed in the Exacta or Trifecta given those performances.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $10 Exacta Box: ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR and ITSINTHEPOST ($20) • $2 Trifecta Key: ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR with ITSINTHEPOST, LIAM THE CHARMER, FLAMBOYANT ($12)• $2 Trifecta Key: ITSINTHEPOST with ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR, LIAM THE CHARMER, FLAMBOYANT ($12)• $6 Win: ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR ($6)

Pacific Classic Stats & Trends

All-Time Pacific Classic Record – Today’s Trainers

Post

12345678

Post

12345678

Trainer

Kristin MulhallBob BaffertJohn SadlerKeith DesormeauxJohn SadlerDoug O’NeillDoug O’NeillBob Baffert

Jockey

Corey NakataniMartin GarciaVictor EspinozaKent DesormeauxSantiago GonzalezMario GutierrezFlavien PratMike Smith

Horse

Royal Albert HallCollectedAccelerateSorry ErikHard AcesDonworthCurlin RoadArrogate

Horse

Royal Albert HallCollectedAccelerateSorry ErikHard AcesDonworthCurlin RoadArrogate

Starts

-2191988

21

Starts165

16131-28

Win

-4000114

Win

11110-04

Place

-2202002

Place

20220-10

Show

-1101221

Show

10140-02

Win ROI

-$3.57

---

$0.50$0.50$3.57

Win ROI

$0.25$1.08$0.26$3.92

---

$11.23

AVG Odds

-9.71/1

26.78/130.90/126.78/116.59/116.59/1

9.71/1

AVG Odds

17.91/115.68/1

8.46/114.15/138.00/1

-8.95/1

16.75/1

Beware the Bomber: Since 2005, the Pacific Classic Trifecta has included horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or higher in 7-of-11 editions. The highest paying Tri in the race’s history returned $2,513 (for $1) in 2007.

About Time! With his victory aboard California Chrome last year, Victor Espinoza broke through for his first Pacific Classic win in 16 tries. Rafael Bejarano (0-for-9) and Tyler Baze (0-for-8) are now the most experienced Pacific Classic riders without a win in the race.

Speed Demons: In 25 prior editions, 11 horses have stopped the clock in the Pacific Classic in less than two minutes, including Beholder in 2015 (1:59.77). Candy Ride (2003) still holds the stakes record, at 1:59.11.

It Has to Pay More…Right? Last year’s Pacific Classic Trifecta (California Chrome/Beholder/Dortmund) paid just $24.80 for $2, the lowest in Pacific Classic history. Last year’s Exacta paid $13.00, the lowest since 2004.

All-Time Pacific Classic Record – Today’s Jockeys

Pacific Classic$1,000,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 10 Pacific Classic WinnersYear Horse Jockey2016 California Chrome V. Espinoza 2015 Beholder G. Stevens 2014 Shared Belief M. Smith2013 Game On Dude M. Garcia2012 Dullahan J. Rosario 2011 Acclamation P. Valenzuela 2010 Richard’s Kid M. Smith 2009 Richard’s Kid M. Smith2008 Go Between G. Gomez2007 Student Council R. Migliore

Know ThisChalk Dust? Favorites have won the last four editions of the Pacific Classic and have finished in the Exacta in each of the last six years. This is in stark contrast to 1991 – 2003, when favorites were defeated in 12 of 13 runnings.

‘Gimme a Few Bucks on the 5’: Horses breaking from Post Position #5 have won the Pacific Classic seven times, the most of any slot in the starting gate. On the other hand, horses breaking from the 7 Post are 0-for-21 in the race. Home Cookin’: Horses who prepped for the Pacific Classic in another state are just 3-for-44. The last non-California-based horse to win was Dullahan in 2012.

Post Time: 8:45 PM ET3YO+1 1/4 Miles Dirt

Which Arrogate Will Show Up?

PacificClassicPicks

1. COLLECTED 2. ACCELERATE 3. ARROGATE 4. DONWORTH

Analysis: If you’d asked us four weeks ago, this race was going to be a layup. ARROGATE was going to breeze through the San Diego ‘Cap, just as he had the Travers, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup and Dubai World Cup. But then, as Bob Baffert put it, he ‘laid an egg’ in the San Diego. For the second time in as many starts, he broke slowly. Unlike the Dubai World Cup, however, he couldn’t recover. Ultimately beaten 15 ¼-lengths by ACCELERATE with no apparent excuse, handicappers now must answer the question – which ARROGATE will show up?

Main Contenders: ARROGATE’s accomplishments, as outlined above, speak for themselves. When he fires, he’s the most talented dirt horse in the world, no questions asked. But how can we be certain he’ll bring his A-game Saturday? With no excuse for his last race and with his Del Mar form being questionable at best, it’s tough to blame anyone who needs to see more from him, especially with COLLECTED and ACCELERATE in the race. ACCELERATE took advantage of ARROGATE’s ‘egg’ to win the San Diego by 8 ½-lengths, while COLLECTED is 3-for-3 this year, including a 14-length romp last out in the Grade 3 Precisionist Stakes at Santa Anita. With no excuse for ARROGATE’s last, this may be a great time to try to beat him again. Our top pick is COLLECTED, a horse who enters the Pacific Classic boasting a string of stellar performances.

Value Plays: It’s tough to find value in a race where three horses are simply far superior to their peers, but DONWORTH is an intriguing entrant. His talent has never been a question, but he’s never been able to stay sound enough to string together more than a handful of starts. He has finished in the Trifecta in 7-of-9 starts and was second to ACCELERATE last out in the San Diego.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $20 Exacta: COLLECTED with ARROGATE, ACCELERATE ($40) • $5 Exacta: ARROGATE, ACCELERATE with COLLECTED ($10)

Del Mar Oaks $300,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 10 Del Mar Oaks Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Harmonize J. Alvarado2015 Sharla Rae J. Graham 2014 Personal Diary C. Nakatani 2013 Discreet Marq J. Leparoux 2012 Lady of Shamrock M. Smith2011 Summer Soiree G. Saez 2010 Evening Jewel V. Espinoza 2009 Internallyflawless G. Gomez 2008 Magical Fantasy A. Solis2007 Rutherienne C. Nakatani

Know ThisBeware the Outside Draw: Horses breaking from the 8, 9 and 10 posts are just 1-for-49 in the Del Mar Oaks since 1991, with just seven on-the-board finishes. The 2 post (6 wins) and the 4 post (5 wins) are the winningest post positions in that span.

Don’t Discount the Shippers: Four of the last six fillies to win the Del Mar Oaks had most recently raced at an East Coast track, including last year’s winner, Harmonize.

Strange…But True: Superstar mare, Tepin, finished last in the 2014 edition of the Oaks. Following that race, she would go on to finish 1st (11 times) or 2nd (4 times) in the final 15 starts of her career.

Firm Turf is a Lock: Since 1991, every edition of the Del Mar Oaks has been run over a firm turf course. Safe to say you won’t need to take weather into account when you’re handicapping!

Post Time: 9:45 PM ET3YO Fillies 1 1/8 Miles Turf

‘Dreaming’ in the Del Mar Oaks

Del MarOaksPicks

1. DREAM DANCING 2. BEAU RECALL (IRE) 3. MEADOWSWEET 4. PACIFIC WIND

Analysis: Del Mar’s premier race for three-year-old fillies attracted a diverse and deep group of 14 runners. Some, like DREAM DANCING, KATHY’S SONG and CON TE PARTIRO have been racing in the east, while others, notably MADAM DANCEALOT, PACIFIC WIND and STORM THE HILL have been racing exclusively in The Golden State. Sprinkle in a few entrants who’ve been racing primarily on dirt – VEXATIOUS, TAPPED and BERNINA STAR – and you’ll find there are plenty of ways to handicap and bet this year’s Del Mar Oaks.

Main Contenders: DREAM DANCING has faced a ‘murderers’ row’ of fillies in New York, Kentucky and Florida, having exclusively knocked heads with the likes of New Money Honey, La Coronel, Proctor’s Ledge and Coasted since March. Her regular rider, Julien Leparoux, makes the trip to San Diego to ride, and note the ‘Know This’ on the right pane regarding the recent success of shippers in this race. BEAU RECALL chased local star, Sircat Sally, all summer and was a decent 6th last out in the Belmont Oaks. She reunites with Joe Talamo today, with whom she has never finished out of the Exacta in four races. CON TE PARTIRO was a surprise winner at Royal Ascot for Wesley Ward and attracted Flavien Prat to ride. MADAM DANCEALOT was 21/1 when she won the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap, but she’ll be a much shorter price Saturday.

Value Plays: MEADOWSWEET is a daughter of star producer, Tranquility Lake, making her a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winners After Market and Courageous Cat. She defeated the highly-regarded PACIFIC WIND last out in a first-level allowance race here on July 21 and appears to be headed in the right direction. Through Wednesday, her jockey, Kent Desormeaux, had won with 28% (8-of-29) of his turf starters during the meet, a higher win rate than any other regular rider at Del Mar.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $1 Trifecta: DREAM DANCING, BEAU RECALL with DREAM DANCING, BEAU RECALL, MEADOWSWEET, PACIFIC WIND with DREAM DANCING, BEAU RECALL, MEADOWSWEET, PACIFIC WIND, MADAM DANCEALOT, CON TE PARTIRO, VEXATIOUS, KATHY’S SONG ($36)• $7 Win: DREAM DANCING, BEAU RECALL ($14)