May 19, 2018Pimlico Race Course

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Fellow Racing Fan,

Congratulations to the connections of 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Justify! This certainly has been an exciting

3-year-old season for those involved with the son of Scat Daddy--as he becomes the first horse in 136 years

to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. Can the unbeaten chestnut pivot quickly

and parlay his Derby victory into a Preakness score and cement two out of three Triple Crown jewels into his

crown? He looms a very short price to do just that.

With Justify in the lineup, horseplayers may be forced to lean on cashing exotic wagers. In order to help you

to have a successful Preakness, we’re proud to present this FREE Preakness Wager Guide.

Xpressbet is pleased to arm horseplayers with valuable information. That’s why we’ve recruited top

handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100

Wagering Strategies. Read how Bob Neumeier, Millie Ball, Jeff Siegel, Jon White, Dick Jerardi and Steve Byk

see the race.

In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you’ll also find oodles of useful Stats and Trends, a

handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.

This season, following the Preakness post-position draw, Xpressbet again will produce an updated version of

this guide to reflect adjustments in expert opinions based on up-to-the-minute information. Make certain to

return to the Xpressbet website Friday, May 18 for a FREE revised and enhanced version of the guide, including

NBC Sports analyst Eddie Olczyk’s opinions.

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Xpressbet hopes your 2018 Preakness wagering experience is fruitful and we look forward to serving as your

advance deposit account wagering provider for the big day and into the future.

Sincerely,

The Xpressbet Team

Welcome to Xpressbet’s FREE Preakness Stakes Wager Guide!

Bravazo (20/1)Owner: Calumet Farm

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Luis Saez

Tenfold (20/1)Owner: Winchell

Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Justify (1/2)Owner: China Horse Club, Head

of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight

Racing, WinStar Farm

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

6

7

8

1Quip (12/1)Owner: WinStar Farm, China

Horse Club International &

SF Racing, LLC

Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset

Jockey: Florent Geroux

2 Lone Sailor (15/1)Owner: G M B RacingTrainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

3 Sporting Chance (30/1)Owner: Robert Baker & William Mack

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Luis Contreras

4 Diamond King (30/1)Owner: Cash is King LLC, D. J. Stable LLC and LC Racing LLC

Trainer: John Servis

Jockey: Javier Castellano

5Good Magic (3/1)Owner: e Five Racing

Thoroughbreds and

Stonestreet Stables LLC

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

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Preakness Wagering FactsBy Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet@HorsePlayerNow

Expert

First

Second

Third

Fourth

Bob Neumeier(HPNow)

Good Magic

Justify

Lone Sailor

Diamond King

Millie Ball(XBTV.com)

Justify

Good Magic

Tenfold

Lone Sailor

Jeff Siegel(XBTV.com)

Justify

Good Magic

Tenfold

Bravazo

Jon White(Santa Anita)

Justify

Good Magic

Bravazo

Quip

Dick Jerardi(DRF)

Justify

Bravazo

Tenfold

Good Magic

Steve Byk(SiriusXM Radio)

Justify

Good Magic

Quip

Bravazo

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events.

Win-Place-Show Odds (Last 15 years, Odds to $1)Win OddsAverage: 5.01High: 15.40 (Oxbow, 2013)Low: .20 (Big Brown, 2008)Notable: Winner has been 3-1 or less 11 of the last 15 years.

Place OddsAverage: 12.73High: 39.90 (Macho Again, 2008)Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007)Notable: 7 of the last 15 runner-ups have been 10-1 or more, including 3 of last 4.

Show OddsAverage: 12.37High: 31.70 (Senior Investment, 2017)Low: .70 (Nyquist, 2016)Notable: 8 of the last 12 Show horses have been 10-1or more.

Exacta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs)Average: $101.41High: $310.40(Oxbow-Itsmyluckyday, 2013)Low: $18.20(California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014)Notable: 10 of last 11 Exactas have included at least 1 horse at 5-2 odds or less.

Trifecta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs)Average: $675.19High: $3,912.80(Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key, 2006)Low: $35.40(I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012)Notable: 3 of last 8 Trifectas have paid $1,000 or more.

Superfecta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs)Average: $4,000.51 Notable: Average odds of fourth-place finishers is 12.8-1.High: $11,151.20 (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key-Brother Derek, 2006)Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion-General A Rod, 2014)Notable: Just 4 times in the bet’s 20-year history the Superfecta has been a 5-digit payoff.

Highest-Priced Superfecta Finishers (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1)Odds Horse Year Fin.39.90 Macho Again 2008 2nd31.70 Senior Investment 2017 3rd29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3rd28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th

Lowest-Priced Favorites(Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin. .20 Big Brown 2008 1st .50 California Chrome 2014 1st .50 Barbaro 2006 dnf .70 Nyquist 2016 3rd .70 Smarty Jones 2004 1st .70 Orb 2013 4th .90 American Pharoah 2015 1st 1.20 Always Dreaming 2017 8th 1.30 Street Sense 2007 2nd 1.80 Rachel Alexandra 2009 1st 1.90 Funny Cide 2003 1st 1.90 Super Saver 2010 8th

The Preakness ContendersBy Johnny D., Xpressbet@XBJohnnyD

Justify: Impressive winner of the 2018 Kentucky Derby, unbeaten Justify, obviously, will enter

Preakness as the only 3-year-old with a chance to become the 13th Triple Crown winner in history.

He’s got past performances on his side in the second leg because trainer Bob Baffert has won this

race with all four of his previous Kentucky Derby winners. Justify will be a short price to make that

five-for-five for Baffert.

Good Magic: He chased Justify home through the stretch of the Kentucky Derby and then

survived a late charge from Audible to hold second. Trainer Chad Brown has been quoted as

saying he ‘has an idea’ for the Preakness. He’d better have an ace up his sleeve because Justify

figures a short-priced favorite to win. Brown trained the winner of last year’s race,

Cloud Computing.

Bravazo: Dismissed at odds of nearly 67-1 in the Kentucky Derby, this son of Awesome Again

finished a solid 6th in the Run for the Roses, between My Boy Jack and Hofburg. He’s won half

of four starts this season, including the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, but was ignored in the

Derby because he lugged out on the turn in the Louisiana Derby, his final prep race. D. Wayne Lukas

is Bravazo’s trainer and he’s known to pull off a Preakness upset in the past (Oxbow $32.80, 2013).

Quip: Owned by some of the same folks that feed Justify, the connections skipped the Kentucky

Derby with Quip in favor of rest and an all-out assault on Preakness. Will the plan succeed? It’s not

unfathomable. He’s got credentials that include victory in the Grade 2 Tampa Derby and a runner-

up effort to Magnum Moon in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Overall, he’s won three of five starts with

one second, so he’s been consistent.

Sporting Chance: Also trained by 82-year-old Hall-of-Fame resident D. Wayne Lukas, Sporting

Chance ran on Derby day at Churchill, just not in the Kentucky Derby. He lacked enough points to

get in the Derby gate, so he ran in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes on the undercard instead and

finished fourth. His major claim to fame is winning the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga. He’s ducked

out twice in the stretch of stakes races and was disqualified from 3rd to 4th in the Blue Grass.

Lone Sailor: Eighth in the Kentucky Derby, Lone Sailor finished less than 10-lengths behind Justify.

Before that he was second to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby and seems to be in progressive

form. He has no early speed and must come from far back in the field, loves an ‘off’ track and is

trained by the red-hot Tom Amoss. Preakness runners coming from last place early have fared

reasonably well in exotics and ‘Sailor may be in that position in Baltimore.

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Eddie’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. GOOD MAGIC

3. QUIP

4. BRAVAZO

Analysis: With a pair of strong favorites in JUSTIFY and GOOD MAGIC, it won’t be

easy to hit big on this year’s Preakness Stakes. The Kentucky Derby 1-2 finishers were

incredibly impressive in Louisville and it’s hard to envision one of the ‘new shooters’

springing an upset. Worried about a wet track? I’m not. JUSTIFY and GOOD MAGIC

passed that test in the wettest Kentucky Derby in history, alleviating any concerns that

they need perfect conditions to run their best. For those of us betting the Preakness, my

best advice is to jump into the mutli-race bets like the $2 Million Guaranteed Late Pick

4 or the $1 Million Guaranteed Late Pick 5. Just wait and see the condition of the turf

course and whether those races stay on the lawn.

Main Contenders: JUSTIFY and GOOD MAGIC, obviously. JUSTIFY was able to work

out a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby thanks to his raw talent and ability. He didn’t

need luck – he made his own. Mike Smith knew exactly how much horse he had and

executed to perfection. I expect he’ll be 1/5 odds in the Preakness, given the Bob Baffert

factor, his unbeaten record and his impressive Kentucky Derby. GOOD MAGIC was my

bet in the Derby and he ran great. Jose Ortiz doesn’t get enough credit for a perfect ride

that day. As a bettor, that’s all you can ask for. Ortiz made all of the right calls and had

GOOD MAGIC in perfect position to challenge JUSTIFY down the lane. He just wasn’t

quite good enough.

Value Plays: I don’t really have a ‘Place’ horse here because it’s all about JUSTIFY and

GOOD MAGIC. Like I said earlier, to find value you’ll need to look to the Exacta, Trifecta,

Pick 4, Pick 5 or Pick 6. If you like JUSTIFY as I do, you’ll need to find a way to turn 1/5

odds into 3/1 or 6/1. I don’t see a bomb that could deliver a big Trifecta payout beneath

JUSTIFY. QUIP is my third horse, but he’ll be a clear third choice and there isn’t a ton

of value there either. Maybe BRAVAZO? He made a nice move in the Derby. It wasn’t a

menacing move and he was never a threat to win, but it was the type of move that could

get him into the Top 3 or 4 in Baltimore.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Trifecta Key: JUSTIFY with QUIP, GOOD MAGIC ($40)

• $40 Exacta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC ($40)

• $10 Exacta Box: JUSTIFY and GOOD MAGIC ($20)

Know ThisThree’s the Limit: Afleet Alex, 2005, is the only Preakness favorite at 3-1 or more in 25 years.

Top Triple Crown Trainers: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas holds the all-time record with 14 wins in Triple Crown races, and faces off with Bob Baffert to keep that historic mark. Justify’s Kentucky Derby win was Baffert’s 13th in a Triple Crown race, tying him for second with the late Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons.

Chalk N’ Roses: Always Dreaming in 2017 became the 13th Derby winner in the last 17 years to be bet to Preakness post-time favoritism. The last Derby winner not favored at Old Hilltop was I’ll Have Another in 2012, who defeated public choice Bodemeister for the second straight race.

Longshots Need Not Apply: Only 2 horses since 1911 have won the Preakness at 20-1 or more.

From Last to the Gimmicks: Five straight Preakness editions have seen a horse rally from last in the field to finish second or third, including 31-1 Senior Investment in the show spot last year.

50/50: Derby winners have added the Preakness trophy 10 times in the last 21 years. Overall, Derby winners have doubled-down at Pimlico 35 times.

Second-Generation Success: 10 times the Preakness winner has been sired by a Preakness winner, including Exaggerator in 2016—sired by 2007 winner Curlin.

Rail Rarities: Only 2 Preakness winners in more than a half-century have started from post 1: American Pharoah (2015) and Tabasco Cat (1994).

Not Such a Cinch: Odds-on favorites have lost the Preakness 13 times, most recently Nyquist in 2016 and Orb in 2013.

?

Kentucky Derby ReduxBy Eddie Olczyk, Xpressbet & NBC Sports

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

A Man on an IslandBy Bob Neumeier, HorsePlayerNow.com

Bob’s Picks

1. GOOD MAGIC

2. JUSTIFY

3. LONE SAILOR

4. DIAMOND KING

Analysis: A look at the Kentucky Derby and upcoming Preakness Stakes shows

that these events are 180 degrees apart; like light vs. darkness or supersonic jets vs.

skateboards. In the pari-mutuel world, the Derby offers us 20 candidates to win; the

Preakness less than 9. At 5-2 odds in the win pool, JUSTIFY was a clear-cut favorite

in the first leg, still offering a decent price for those who backed him in the wagering

at Churchill Downs. In the Preakness, the world will suddenly change. After decisively

winning on the first Saturday in May, JUSTIFY will likely be 1-5 or 2-5 in the win pool.

No, thank you. Not on my watch, despite his brilliance. For sharp bettors who think

JUSTIFY is unbeatable in Baltimore, they need to unearth possible “value” in the exacta

or daily doubles going in or going out, using the ‘will-pay possibilities’ to formulate a

respectable return on investment. But, what if the Derby winner loses the Preakness?

Good sports or Thoroughbred bettors MUST be contrarian to succeed over time. 99.9%

of America (including me) believes that JUSTIFY should win this race. Thus, if you back

the overwhelming favorite, you must find success by entering a pool that offers a decent

ROI. And win it. However, this is a classic man-on-an-island contrarian spot, teeming

with possibilities that an upset is always on the table.

Main Contenders: JUSTIFY, JUSTIFY, JUSTIFY. He won despite an insane early pace

for the one mile and one-quarter distance. He is lightly-raced, should improve, and will

appreciate the scarcity of competition. GOOD MAGIC looks like a solid second choice,

given his overall form and a gutsy performance over the sloppy conditions in Louisville.

However, in this sport, things rarely go as formulated.

Value Plays: If you like JUSTIFY to win (like most bettors), you must find the proper

bet(s) to offer a decent return. Given the amount of predicted support for JUSTIFY,

GOOD MAGIC can be considered a value player in any pool. LONE SAILOR should move

up on a sloppy track - rain is expected all week in Baltimore - and could easily fill out the

Trifecta.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $60 Win: GOOD MAGIC ($60)

• $40 Exacta: GOOD MAGIC over JUSTIFY ($40)

Stats & TrendsDerby Winners in Preakness (Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds2017 Always Dreaming 8th 6-5*2016 Nyquist 3rd 3-5*2015 American Pharoah 1st 4-5*2014 California Chrome 1st 1-2*2013 Orb 4th 3-5*2012 I’ll Have Another 1st 3-12011 Animal Kingdom 2nd 2-1*2010 Super Saver 8th 9-5*2009 Mine That Bird 2nd 6-12008 Big Brown 1st 1-5*2007 Street Sense 2nd 6-5*2006 Barbaro dnf 1-2*2005 Giacomo 3rd 6-12004 Smarty Jones 1st 3-5*2003 Funny Cide 1st 9-5**Preakness Favorite

Derby Runner-Ups in Preakness(Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds2017 Lookin At Lee 4th 9-12016 Exaggerator 1st 5-22015 Firing Line 7th 3-12014 did not compete -- --2013 did not compete -- --2012 Bodemeister 2nd 8-5*2011 did not compete -- --2010 did not compete -- --2009 Pioneerof The Nile 11th 6-12008 did not compete -- --2007 Hard Spun 3rd 4-12006 did not compete -- --2005 Closing Argument 9th 7-12004 Lion Heart 4th 9-22003 did not compete -- --

Exotic Wagering Chart

Preakness exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.

Exacta Box: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2 3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$12 5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20 6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56

Exacta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All 6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 7 horse field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7 9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8 10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $9

Trifecta Box: ($.50 Wager) 3 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 7 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $105 8 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $168

Trifecta Wheel: ($.50 Wager)One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$15 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $36

One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/

All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1)

7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$7 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8

Trifecta Key: ($.50 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $21 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

Superfecta Box: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$24 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360

Superfecta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All with All (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$336 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504

One Horse with Two Horses with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$84 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112

Superfecta Key: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

The Best is Yet to ComeBy Millie Ball, XBTV.com@camillayakteen

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Millie’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. GOOD MAGIC

3. TENFOLD

4. LONE SAILOR

Analysis: Historically, all four of Bob Baffert’s prior Kentucky Derby winners have

gone on to run a faster race two weeks later in the Preakness. According to Baffert, the

reasoning for this is, ”They were the best horses and they were in the zone.” In the days

following this Derby win, Baffert told me he’s extremely happy with the way JUSTIFY

looks, so there’s no reason to believe this time in Baltimore will be any different.

Main Contenders: Any prior Derby concerns about JUSTIFY handling travel and

the effects of the curse of Apollo are no longer sanctioned, so if he stays healthy, and

barring any unforeseen circumstance, I see the results of the Preakness mirroring that of

the Derby. GOOD MAGIC continues on a healthy pattern for trainer Chad Brown and I

trust he will run equally as well as his runner-up performance to JUSTIFY.

Value Plays: Trainer Steve Asmussen voiced his disappointment in TENFOLD’s

fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, saying “He’s better than that.” Translation: He

trained much better than he ran. So, I’m willing to excuse that effort and include him

underneath. LONE SAILOR encountered a good dose of traffic in the Derby, being

forced to drop back, then re-rallying. No one will appreciate an honest pace more than

he, and the way this race is shaping up, that looks likely to unfold.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $75 Win: JUSTIFY ($75)

• $25 Exacta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC ($25)

Stats & TrendsFastest Preakness Stakes Year Horse Time1973 Secretariat 1:531985 Tank’s Prospect 1:53 2/51996 Louis Quatorze 1:53 2/52007 Curlin 1:53 2/51984 Gate Dancer 1:53 3/51990 Summer Squall 1:53 3/51989 Sunday Silence 1:53 4/51991 Hansel 1:541971 Cannonero II 1:54

Fastest FractionsDist. Time Horse 1/4 :22 2/5 (Tied 4 times) 1/2 :45 Bold Forbes (1976) 3/4 1:09 Bold Forbes (1976) Mile 1:34 1/5 Sunday Silence (1989) Chief’s Crown (1985) Secretariat (1973) Final 1:53 2/5 Secretariat (1973)

Half-Mile Leaders(Last 10 Years) Year Horse Finish2017 Always Dreaming 8th2016 Nyquist 3rd2015 American Pharoah 1st2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th2013 Oxbow 1st 2012 Bodemeister 2nd2011 Flashpoint 14th 2010 First Dude 2nd 2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st2008 Gayego 11th The Last …

Kentucky Derby winner to win: American Pharoah (2015)

Kentucky Derby runner-up to win: Exaggerator (2016)

Kentucky Derby off the board finisher to win: Oxbow (2013)

Kentucky Derby exacta to repeat 1-2 in Preakness: I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012)

Non-Kentucky Derby alum to win: Cloud Computing (2017)

Prepped last locally to win: Bee Bee Bee (1972)

Preakness “Last Times”

Who Will Finish Second?By Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com@jsiegelracing

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jeff’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. GOOD MAGIC

3. TENFOLD

4. BRAVAZO

Analysis: After surviving a tag-team assault during his superlative victory in the

Kentucky Derby, undefeated JUSTIFY should encounter a far less taxing assignment in

the Preakness, the second of three steps that will lead him to racing immortality. In the

Derby, the son of Scat Derby pounded pace-setter Promises Fulfilled into submission

midway on the far turn, shrugged off the stalking Bolt d’Oro at the quarter pole, took the

best punch GOOD MAGIC could muster with a furlong to go, and then easily withstood

the late kick of Audible to win by 2 ½ lengths. He did all of this after pressing one of the

fastest early paces in Derby history before conquering what was arguably the strongest,

deepest Derby field since the turn of the century. Now that he’s scared off most of the

competition, his visit to Baltimore should be a stroll in the park.

Main Contenders: GOOD MAGIC was a relatively late addition to the Preakness field.

He had a very favorable trip in the Kentucky Derby, but still couldn’t come close to

passing JUSTIFY. He’s a quality colt, though, and is the second best in this field. Tampa

Bay Derby winner, QUIP, is owned by the same people as JUSTIFY, so don’t expect him

to tussle with the Derby winner early. D. Wayne Lukas, of course, will be represented by

BRAVAZO and SPORTING CHANCE. Both have no chance to win, but since when did

that ever matter, and besides, who’s to say that one or even both can’t hit the board?

Value Plays: The exacta from JUSTIFY to GOOD MAGIC will return the equivalent of a

ham sandwich, if that, so I need to find someone to use underneath. Let’s try the lightly-

raced, but talented, TENFOLD underneath. In the photo for second in the Arkansas

Derby in what was just his third career start, the son of Curlin has plenty of talent and

enters the Preakness primed for a forward move. He’s certainly not in JUSTIFY’s league,

or even GOOD MAGIC’s, but if he’s ridden to be third, he could finish there.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $100 Trifecta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC over TENFOLD ($100)

Stats & TrendsWire-to-Wire Winners(Last 50 Years) Year Horse2015 American Pharoah*2013 Oxbow *2009 Rachel Alexandra *1996 Louis Quartorze *1982 Aloma’s Ruler1972 Bee Bee Bee*Did not lead at start call.

Last-to-First Winners(Since 1910) Year Horse Strs. Behind ½ Mile1974 Little Current 13 10 1/2 lengths1961 Carry Back 9 14 1/2 lengths1952 Blue Man 10 13 1/2 lengths1941 Whirlaway 9 9 lengths

Successful Locals(Last 20 Years) Year Horse Fin.2008 Icabad Crane 3rd2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 2nd2005 Scrappy T 2nd2002 Magic Weisner 2nd

Baffert is Perfect Doing ThisBy Jon White, Santa Anita Oddsmaker@PostTimeJon

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jon’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. GOOD MAGIC

3. BRAVAZO

4. QUIP

Analysis: When it comes to success in the Preakness Stakes with a Kentucky Derby

winner, Bob Baffert is a perfect 4-for-4. Baffert won both races with Silver Charm in

1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002 and American Pharoah in 2015. The last

time a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, it was American Pharoah,

who went on to capture the Belmont Stakes to achieve Triple Crown immortality. Now

Baffert is back in Baltimore with his fifth Kentucky Derby winner, undefeated JUSTIFY,

who looms an overwhelming Preakness favorite. Much was made of the fact that

JUSTIFY became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2

since Apollo in 1882. But it also was a tremendous achievement by JUSTIFY becoming

just the third horse to win the Kentucky Derby in its 144-year history having made three

or fewer previous career starts. The other two were the great filly Regret in 1915 and

Big Brown in 2008. After Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby, he proved a punctual 1-5

favorite in the Preakness. JUSTIFY probably will be an even shorter price than Big Brown

in the Preakness, going off at either 1-10 or 1-20.

Main Contenders: It’s JUSTIFY, period. If GOOD MAGIC and/or BOLT D’ORO start,

they should be seen as contenders. GOOD MAGIC, a son of 2007 Preakness winner

Curlin, ran second in the Kentucky Derby. JUSTIFY now has defeated BOLT D’ORO in

both the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Can’t envision either GOOD MAGIC

or BOLT D’ORO turning the tables on JUSTIFY.

Value Plays: If anyone can pull off a shocker, it is Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who

sends out BRAVAZO and SPORTING CHANCE. Lukas has won the Preakness six times,

most recently in 2013 with Oxbow at 15-1 after he had finished sixth in the Kentucky

Derby. Where did BRAVAZO finish in this year’s Kentucky Derby? He finished sixth.

Hmmm. SPORTING CHANCE, a quirky sort, didn’t have sufficient points to get into

the Kentucky Derby and ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile. SPORTING CHANCE has been

written off by almost everybody, but Lukas has upset a number of big races through the

years with this type.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $60 Exacta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC ($60)

• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: JUSTIFY over BRAVAZO, LONE SAILOR, QUIP,

SPORTING CHANCE ($40)

Stats & TrendsWinners Who Skipped Derby(Since 1970) Year Horse2017 Cloud Computing2009 Rachel Alexandra2006 Bernardini2000 Red Bullet1983 Deputed Testamony1982 Aloma’s Ruler1980 Codex1972 Bee Bee Bee

Where Winners Were BredWins State 98 Kentucky 8 Maryland 7 Florida 6 Pennsylvania 6 Virginia

Know ThisRookies On a Roll: Three times in the last 4 years, the Preakness has been won by trainers saddling their first starters in the middle jewel – Art Sherman with California Chrome in 2014, Keith Desormeaux in 2016 with Exaggerator and Chad Brown with Cloud Computing a year ago. Rodolphe Brisset saddles Quip for his first Preakness start.

Resume Lite: Last year, Cloud Computing became the second horse in the new millennium to win the Preakness having made only 3 prior career starts. He followed Bernardini in 2006.

Popularity Contest: The Preakness favorite is 72-for-143, scoring just over the 50% mark all-time.

Go Get’em Champ: The reigning 2-year-old champion has won the Preakness 7 times since the advent of the Eclipse Awards in 1971. Good Magic will try to add to that ledger, but only 3 juvenile champions since 1979 have been successful in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

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Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Dick’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. BRAVAZO

3. TENFOLD

4. GOOD MAGIC

Analysis: Unbeaten Kentucky Derby winner JUSTIFY has the best early speed, the top

speed figures and, after attending some of the fastest early fractions in Derby history

before running away from the 2-year-old champion in the stretch, an unmistakable aura

that only the truly exceptional talents possess. It is hard to find a strategic weakness.

Consider: four consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures; the ability to go fast enough

early to be battling through blistering sprint fractions in his debut; tracking those wild

Derby fractions; or relaxing up top in moderate fractions in the Santa Anita Derby.

The hot pace from the Derby should be much more moderate in the Preakness with

the smaller field and, thus, should be a lack of urgency to get early position. Trainer

Bob Baffert has taken four Derby winners to Pimlico for the Preakness. Each of them

won. JUSTIFY surely looks like he is going to keep that streak going. The main issue is

trying to come up with the right horses to use behind JUSTIFY in exactas, trifectas and

superfectas.

Main Contenders: JUSTIFY is likely to be 2-5 odds, which is what happens when

a pair of the sport’s legends (Bob Baffert and Mike Smith) team to win four races by

a combined 21 1/2-lengths. Plus, he’s got a stride to die for. Chad Brown promised

we would see the best of GOOD MAGIC in the Kentucky Derby and he delivered.

He made a strong move but couldn’t gain on JUSTIFY in the final 200 yards. Brown

bringing GOOD MAGIC back in two weeks is a bit of a surprise and I’m not quite sure

what to expect from him. QUIP has the speed to be in the vicinity of JUSTIFY early, but

chasing the favorite may not be the way to hang around late. TENFOLD has not run

poorly in three starts, while DIAMOND KING has the same connections as Preakness

winners Smarty Jones (trainer John Servis) and Afleet Alex (owner Chuck Zacney).

Value Plays: BRAVAZO made a nice rally to finish the Kentucky Derby and that was the

type of move that could get him into the Top 2 or 3 in the Preakness. He seems to be

training better than his stablemate, SPORTING CHANCE.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $50 Exacta Part-Wheel: JUSTIFY over BRAVAZO and TENFOLD ($100)

Stats & TrendsSoph Champions(The Preakness winner has been named Champion 3-year-old in 13 of the last 17 years.) Year Horse2015 American Pharoah2014 California Chrome2012 I’ll Have Another2010 Lookin At Lucky2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly)2008 Big Brown2007 Curlin2006 Bernardini2005 Afleet Alex2004 Smarty Jones2003 Funny Cide2002 War Emblem2001 Point Given

2017 Preakness Handle(Millions, Except for Double) Pool HandleWin, Place, Show $ 21.0Trifecta $ 13.3 Exacta $ 11.0 Superfecta $ 7.0 Pick Four $ 2.7 ‘Susan /Preakness Double $ 794k

Largest Preakness Crowds Attendance Year Winner 140,327 2017 Cloud Computing 135,256 2016 Exaggerator 131,680 2015 American Pharoah 123,469 2014 California Chrome 121,309 2012 I’ll Have Another 121,264 2007 Curlin

Take ’Chance’ Under Chalk By Dick Jerardi, Daily Racing Form@DickJerardi

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Steve’s Picks

1. JUSTIFY

2. GOOD MAGIC

3. QUIP

4. BRAVAZO

Analysis: First, the annual reminder that runners contesting the Preakness off favorable

or forgivable Derby efforts should be the foundation of your wagers. In the last 16

editions of the Preakness, 13 winners of the Woodlawn Vase arrived from Louisville after

overwhelmingly positive Downs results with Bernardini (2006), Rachel Alexandra (2009)

and Cloud Computing (2017) the exceptions. The 2018 Preakness obviously centers on

JUSTIFY. Skeptics are citing the failure of recent wet-track Derby winners (Super Saver,

Orb, Always Dreaming) and the perceived left-hind hoof issue as signals of possible

vulnerability. Those willing to work from JUSTIFY’S low-priced favoritism are relying on

Bob Baffert’s perfect record in the Preakness with his 4 previous rose-blanket recipients

(Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, American Pharoah).

Main Contenders: Some will be citing the post-Derby heel issue as a reason to try to

bet against JUSTIFY. More playing against the undefeated Scat Daddy colt is the intense

development involved in running a fifth race in 90 days. At some point, those demands

will catch up with him. As Chad Brown said, GOOD MAGIC ran well enough at Churchill

to win many a recent Derby. D. Wayne Lukas’ BRAVAZO also harkens back to an earlier

Derby also-ran in the Preakness, one that emanated from his own barn in ’13 winner

Oxbow. BRAVAZO ran the same obscured pace chase in the Derby that Oxbow parlayed

into his $32.80 upset of Orb.

Value Plays: It does feel like some combination of QUIP, SPORTING CHANCE and/or

TENFOLD could make appearances in the pay slots. WinStar’s QUIP bypassed Derby to

concentrate on this opportunity and his ‘with-the-pace-flow’ style suits this event. Baker

& Mack’s SPORTING CHANCE has helped author some wacky trouble lines in his 7-race

career, but has been consistently competitive against the division’s best and will be a

better price than barn mate BRAVAZO. Winchell homebred TENFOLD will make only his

fourth career start in the Preakness, but ran deceptively well in the Arkansas Derby and

merits inclusion with any further development.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $7 Trifecta Part-Wheel: JUSTIFY, GOOD MAGIC with JUSTIFY, GOOD MAGIC with

QUIP, SPORTING CHANCE, TENFOLD, BRAVAZO, LONE SAILOR ($70)

• $3 Trifecta Part-Wheel: JUSTIFY, GOOD MAGIC with QUIP, SPORTING CHANCE,

TENFOLD, BRAVAZO, LONE SAILOR with JUSTIFY, GOOD MAGIC ($30)

Stats & TrendsLongshot Winners(15-1 or more)$2 Payoff Horse Year $48.80 Master Derby 1975 $45.60 Coventry 1925 $40.70 Display 1926 $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972 $32.80 Oxbow 2013 $32.00 Hindus 1900 $32.00 Don Enrique 1907

Preakness Rebounds (Derby 5th or Worse and Won Preakness) Year Horse Finish2013 Oxbow 6th 2010 Lookin at Lucky 6th 2001 Point Given 5th1996 Louis Quatorze 16th1994 Tabasco Cat 6th1992 Pine Bluff 5th1991 Hansel 10th1986 Snow Chief 11th1985 Tank’s Prospect 7th1984 Gate Dancer 5th1974 Little Current 5th1970 Personality 8th1927 Bostonian 5th1926 Display 10th1900 Hindus 7th

Know ThisSecond-Generation Success: 10 times the Preakness winner has been sired by a Preakness winner, including Exaggerator in 2016—sired by 2007 winner Curlin.

Rail Rarities: Only 2 Preakness winners in more than a half-century have started from post 1: American Pharoah (2015) and Tabasco Cat (1994).

Not Such a Cinch: Odds-on favorites have lost the Preakness 13 times, most recently Nyquist in 2016 and Orb in 2013.

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Justifiably ConfidentBy Steve Byk, At the Races (SiriusXM)@Steve_Byk

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