pacific northwest woodchip market
DESCRIPTION
Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market. May 2008. The Northwest Being Discussed…. Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market. Washington. W. Montana. Oregon. Idaho. No. California. Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market. Who are the players in the Pulp & Paper sector? How much of what do they consume? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Pacific Northwest Woodchip MarketMay 2008
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The Northwest Being Discussed
WashingtonOregonIdahoNo. CaliforniaW. MontanaPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Who are the players in the Pulp & Paper sector?How much of what do they consume?What does the fiber balance look like?Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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NW Softwood Chip Demand: 2008 Estimate - MBDU/YearPuget SoundKimberly Clark Everett 250Nippon Port Angeles 60Port Townsend P.T. 400Simpson Tacoma 540Evergreen Cosmopolis 300Export to B.C. 740 *Import From B.C.( 100) 2,190
Lower Columbia RiverBlue Heron Oregon City 70Boise St. Helens 300GP Camas 210GP - Wauna 300Longview Fiber 940SP News Newberg 180Weyco/Norpac Longview 1,170 3,170
* EstimateInlandBoise Wallula 510Inland Spokane 100Ponderay USK 180Potlatch - Lewiston 720Smurfit Missoula 620Export to B.C. 250 *Import From B.C.( 40) 2,340
Willamette Valley / No. Calif.Evergreen - Samoa 480GP Toledo 500Pope & Talbot 180International Paper - Albany 360International Paper - Springfield 500Export to Japan 6202,640
Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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NW Hardwood & Sawdust Demand: 2008 Estimate MBDU/Year Puget Sound Hardwood (Chips & Sawdust) Sawdust (Softwood)Kimberly Clark 70 --Port Townsend -- 40 70 40 Lower Columbia RiverBlue Heron 20 --Boise 260 --GP Camas 180 50GP Wauna 110 150Longview Fiber 90 30Weyerhaeuser 50 -- 710 230 Willamette ValleyGP Toledo 100 --Pope & Talbot -- 180Export to Japan 30 -- 130 180 Inland Boise 60 80Potlatch -- 320 60 400Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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NW Supply/Demand Estimate 2008 (MMBDU)Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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NW Fiber Principal Woodchip Market DriversWhat are the key drivers of the woodchip market in this region?Housing StartsLumber Production Rates/Product Pricing/Log CostsPulpmill Operating Rates/Pulp & Paper PricesTransportation/Diesel CostsPulpwood availabilityResource constraintsPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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U.S. Housing Starts: Annual RatesPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Western Lumber Production 1988 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Western Lumber Production By Region 1989 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Pacific Northwest Woodchip MarketBone dry units of chips produced per MBF lumber production
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Green DF 2X4 Standard & Better: Nominal Sales Price 1988 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Green DF 2X4 Lumber Price Portland: 2005 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Pulp prices:NBSK up 15%NBHK up 18%Paper prices:Newsprint down 5%All uncoated, coated white papers up 2 17%Liner, medium, kraft, boxboard, etc. up 4 12%Pacific Northwest Woodchip MarketPulp and Paper Prices Year Over Year (Feb, 2008)
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Western US Pulp Mill Operating Rates: 2006 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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West Coast No. 2 Retail Diesel Price HistoryPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Chart1
2.019
2.259
2.462
2.557
2.413
2.382
2.513
2.821
3.051
3.122
2.707
2.517
2.582
2.621
2.712
2.868
3.161
3.123
3.056
3.199
3.061
2.674
2.691
2.884
2.762
2.768
2.806
2.933
2.929
2.954
3.022
3.014
3.002
3.241
3.572
3.45
3.471
3.42
3.327
3.301
3.325
3.347
3.454
3.609
3.736
3.885
4.018
4.056
4.049
4.052
4.176
4.255
4.312
4.303
4.454
4.61
4.883
$/gallon
West Coast No. 2 Diesel - Retail
Sheet1
West Coast No. 2 Diesel Retail
January-052.019
February-052.259
March-052.462
April-052.557
May-052.413
June-052.382
July-052.513
August-052.821
September-053.051
October-053.122
November-052.707
December-052.517
January-062.582
February-062.621
March-062.712
April-062.868
May-063.161
June-063.123
July-063.056
August-063.199
September-063.061
October-062.674
November-062.691
December-062.884
January-072.762
February-072.768
March-072.806
April-072.933
May-072.929
June-072.954
July-073.022
August-073.014
September-073.002
October-073.241
November-073.572
December-073.450
07-Jan-083.471
14-Jan-083.420
21-Jan-083.327
28-Jan-083.301
04-Feb-083.325
11-Feb-083.347
18-Feb-083.454
25-Feb-083.609
03-Mar-083.736
10-Mar-083.885
17-Mar-084.018
24-Mar-084.056
31-Mar-084.049
07-Apr-084.052
14-Apr-084.176
21-Apr-084.255
28-Apr-084.312
05-May-084.303
12-May-084.454
19-May-084.610
26-May-084.883
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A few comments about transportation costs, pulpwood availability, and resource constraints:Companies are having difficulty in managing costs in light of escalating fuel pricing.The Pacific Northwest is not a pulpwood economy the current scenario is not sustainable.Resource constraints will continue to be an issue for providing economic wood fiber (particularly hardwood) for the pulp and paper industry.Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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In light of the fiber balance and the key drivers:Where have we come from and what do things look like at this point in time?Pacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Softwood & Hardwood Woodchip Receipts: MBDT per Day 2006 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Softwood Receipts: Residuals MBDT per Day 2006 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Softwood Receipts: Whole Log Chip Percentage 2006 to DatePacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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PNW Pulpwood Price HistoryPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Pulpwood
2625
2625
2425
2424
2624
2624
2728
2726
2930
2930
3731
4338
4140
3540
3042
3141
4142
Source: Wood Resources International, LLC
SW PW-LCR
HW PW-LCR
US$/Green Ton
PNW Pulpwood Price HistoryLower Columbia River
Woodchips
83103105.25
84103105.25
84103105.25
84102105.25
84102106
84104107
85104110.25
87104110.25
91106110.25
95109110.25
107121117.5
142.5150133
167.5160151
141150167.5
116160157.5
117162147.5
159164165
Source: Wood Resources International, LLC
DF-LCR
HW-LCR
EXPORT
US$/BDU DELIVERED or FOB VESSEL
PNW Woodchip Price HistoryLower Columbia River & Export
Sheet1
Woodchip Price History - Lower Columbia River
US$/BDU DeliveredUS$/BDU FOBUS$/GT
DF-LCRHW-LCREXPORTSW PW-LCRHW PW-LCR
1Q04$83.00$103.00$105.25$26.00$25.00
2Q04$84.00$103.00$105.25$26.00$25.00
3Q04$84.00$103.00$105.25$24.00$25.00
4Q04$84.00$102.00$105.25$24.00$24.00
1Q05$84.00$102.00$106.00$26.00$24.00
2Q05$84.00$104.00$107.00$26.00$24.00
3Q05$85.00$104.00$110.25$27.00$28.00
4Q05$87.00$104.00$110.25$27.00$26.00
1Q06$91.00$106.00$110.25$29.00$30.00
2Q06$95.00$109.00$110.25$29.00$30.00
3Q06$107.00$121.00$117.50$37.00$31.00
4Q06$142.50$150.00$133.00$43.00$38.00
1Q07$167.50$160.00$151.00$41.00$40.00
2Q07$141.00$150.00$167.50$35.00$40.00
3Q07$116.00$160.00$157.50$30.00$42.00
4Q07$117.00$162.00$147.50$31.00$41.00
1Q08$159.00$164.00$165.00$41.00$42.00
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PNW Woodchip Price HistoryPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Pulpwood
2625
2625
2425
2424
2624
2624
2728
2726
2930
2930
3731
4338
4140
3540
3042
3141
4142
Source: Wood Resources International, LLC
SW PW-LCR
HW PW-LCR
US$/Green Ton
PNW Pulpwood Price HistoryLower Columbia River
Woodchips
83103105.25
84103105.25
84103105.25
84102105.25
84102106
84104107
85104110.25
87104110.25
91106110.25
95109110.25
107121117.5
142.5150133
167.5160151
141150167.5
116160157.5
117162147.5
159164165
Source: Wood Resources International, LLC
DF-LCR
HW-LCR
EXPORT
US$/BDU DELIVERED or FOB VESSEL
PNW Woodchip Price HistoryLower Columbia River & Export
Sheet1
Woodchip Price History - Lower Columbia River
US$/BDU DeliveredUS$/BDU FOBUS$/GT
DF-LCRHW-LCREXPORTSW PW-LCRHW PW-LCR
1Q04$83.00$103.00$105.25$26.00$25.00
2Q04$84.00$103.00$105.25$26.00$25.00
3Q04$84.00$103.00$105.25$24.00$25.00
4Q04$84.00$102.00$105.25$24.00$24.00
1Q05$84.00$102.00$106.00$26.00$24.00
2Q05$84.00$104.00$107.00$26.00$24.00
3Q05$85.00$104.00$110.25$27.00$28.00
4Q05$87.00$104.00$110.25$27.00$26.00
1Q06$91.00$106.00$110.25$29.00$30.00
2Q06$95.00$109.00$110.25$29.00$30.00
3Q06$107.00$121.00$117.50$37.00$31.00
4Q06$142.50$150.00$133.00$43.00$38.00
1Q07$167.50$160.00$151.00$41.00$40.00
2Q07$141.00$150.00$167.50$35.00$40.00
3Q07$116.00$160.00$157.50$30.00$42.00
4Q07$117.00$162.00$147.50$31.00$41.00
1Q08$159.00$164.00$165.00$41.00$42.00
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Woodchip Inventory and ConsumptionPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
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Chart1
323.64101.5109.2659.78961.3953.1
301.27101.0477.6756.46909.1666.1
255.3389.0960.6459889.2146.6
273.0683.1762.7373.97905.9253.2
286.8887.4573.9186.8844.1238.5
386.7135.2797.76110.67842.4143
403.04178.9697.8179.05798.2847.22
428.24187.9495.6997.7856.7646.91
543.05240.978.33149.62766.2974.2
605.17274.0489.59168.86781.0172.68
696.92362.19101.12165.51794.7568.1
715.79383.46116.5140.44828.475.4
828.83434.56122.64184.07833.3987.57
903.41467.62125.81215.85843.4394.13
906.45478.8110.33216.2859.06101.11
898.8473.5694.66221.21891.61108.67
821.79427.1584.65211.25829.1398.73
838.54389.9281.03245.24831.34122.34
753.35344.7262.67241.21856.27104.75
551.93232.1747.38187.11868.8285.27
540.79183.22115.9165.92902.2475.75
596.55197.78123.66168.42757.35106.69
623.84229.29140.81147.28865.49106.46
769.89359.84155.12134.42819.92120.51
2006
2007
2008
Total Inventory
Lower Columbia River
Greater Willamette Valley
East of Cascades
Consumption
Puget Sound
Thousand Bone Dry Tons
Graph
WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY
*APRIL 2008*
Forest Resources Association
1825 Leslie Road #136, Richland, Washington 99352
Phone: (509) 396-2478 FAX: (509) 396-2481 E-mail: [email protected]
2007 TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 9,983.47 (Thousand Bone Dry Tons)
2006 TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 10,553,80 (Thousand Bone Dry Tons)2008 data based on2008 YTD CONSUMPTION:3,345.00(Thousand Bone Dry Tons)
2005 TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 10,979.95 (Thousand Bone Dry Tons)22 mills in reporting2007 COMPARATIVE TOTAL:3,170.45(Thousand Bone Dry Tons)
2004 TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 10, 832.87 (Thousand Bone Dry Tons)region (19 providingPercent Change:5.22%
2003 TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 10, 739.90 (Thousand Bone Dry Tons)actual data, 3 are estimated)
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Graph
0
-174.55
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#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1998 WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY
Data
WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY
*APRIL 2008*
Forest Resources Association, Inc.
(Thousand Bone Dry Tons)ReceiptsConsumptionInventory*Adjustments**
Lower Columbia393.93310.66359.84-47.87
Greater Willamette Valley198.04179.65155.124.08
Puget Sound134.15125.06120.51-4.96
East of the Cascades216.02204.55134.4224.33
TOTAL WESTERN:942.14819.92769.89-24.42
Westwide
Receipts - Domestic:Softwood Whole-log Chips355.10
Softwood Residual Chips500.70
Hardwood Whole-log Chips49.04
Hardwood Residual Chips27.48
Receipts- Import:9.82
TOTAL RECEIPTS:942.14
Consumption:Softwood Chips748.94
Hardwood Chips70.98
TOTAL CHIP CONSUMPTION:819.92
Sawdust65.10Adjustments**
Inventory - Month End:Softwood Chips522.31-1.25
Hardwood Chips29.62-8.97
Pulp Logs217.96-14.20Days Of Use***
TOTAL MONTH END INVENTORY:769.89-24.4228.40
Westwide Chip Consumption:BudgetedActual
Total (Monthly)Chip/Sawdust/Shavings% of TotalChip Only% of Total
Budgeted Consumption, 2008 ****942.45885.0293.91%819.9287.00%
*As reported by 19 mills, estimated for 3 mills
**Calculated inventory variance; i.e. beginning inventory + receipts - consumption
***Total Month End Inventory expressed as "days of use", based upon rolling three months average consumption
**** based on 22 mills in reporting region, consumption of chips, sawdust, & shavings
Thousand Bone Dry Tons
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Total Inventory
Lower Columbia River
Greater Willamette Valley
East of Cascades
Consumption
Puget Sound
Thousand Bone Dry Tons
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
APR
APR
APR
APR
APR
APR
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
MAY
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
AUG
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
SEP
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
OCT
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
DEC
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
FEB
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
MAR
APR
APR
APR
APR
APR
APR
323.64
101.5
109.26
59.78
961.39
53.1
301.27
101.04
77.67
56.46
909.16
66.1
255.33
89.09
60.64
59
889.21
46.6
273.06
83.17
62.73
73.97
905.92
53.2
286.88
87.45
73.91
86.8
844.12
38.5
386.7
135.27
97.76
110.67
842.41
43
403.04
178.96
97.81
79.05
798.28
47.22
428.24
187.94
95.69
97.7
856.76
46.91
543.05
240.9
78.33
149.62
766.29
74.2
605.17
274.04
89.59
168.86
781.01
72.68
696.92
362.19
101.12
165.51
794.75
68.1
715.79
383.46
116.5
140.44
828.4
75.4
828.83
434.56
122.64
184.07
833.39
87.57
903.41
467.62
125.81
215.85
843.43
94.13
906.45
478.8
110.33
216.2
859.06
101.11
898.8
473.56
94.66
221.21
891.61
108.67
821.79
427.15
84.65
211.25
829.13
98.73
838.54
389.92
81.03
245.24
831.34
122.34
753.35
344.72
62.67
241.21
856.27
104.75
551.93
232.17
47.38
187.11
868.82
85.27
540.79
183.22
115.9
165.92
902.24
75.75
596.55
197.78
123.66
168.42
757.35
106.69
623.84
229.29
140.81
147.28
865.49
106.46
769.89
359.84
155.12
134.42
819.92
120.51
2006
2007
2008
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Statistics
WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY - STATISTICAL ROUNDUP
*APRIL 2008*
Forest Resources Association, Inc.
Period:18-Apr-08NBSK (Market Pulp):$880m. ton(Note: Delivered price in U.S. $, eastern U.S.)
18-Apr-0830# West Coast News:$660m. ton
18-Apr-0842# West Coast Liner:$620sh. ton(discounts noted to $570)
18-Apr-0820# Forms Bond:$980sh. ton
Period:11-Apr-08ONP #8(Deink news)$140 - $160sh. ton(FOB seller's dock San Francisco- Los Angeles)
11-Apr-08OCC #11:$160 - $175sh. ton
11-Apr-08DLK #13$190 - $195sh. ton
Week EndingFraming Lumber Composite:$270(Prices per thousand board feet)
2-May-082X4 S&B Green Doug Fir PDX:$258
2X4 S&B KD Western SPF:$216
April AverageWWPA Western Region
(5weeks)Weekly Lumber Production:264,082Thousand Board Feet
Previous month's weekly average250,873"
MarchNational Housing Starts:0.947Million Units (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Previous month(Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce)1.065"
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Statistics
840690675575
840720675575
840750675575
890750675575
890770675575
890770670575
880770665575
880770660575
880790640575
870790630575
870790625575
870810620560
870810600575
870810585575
870830580575
870830570620
870850565620
910850560620
920850570620
920870585620
920880600620
920880620620
940880640620
980880660620
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2006
2007
2008
20# Form
NBSK
#30 WC News
42# WC liner
KEY PULP AND PAPER MARKET INDICATORS
BC Southern Interior
707595
7090110
70100120
75100115
8090110
8085110
8080100
8590110
95100115
105115130
120145145
115125145
110115145
110115145
115135160
110135160
110135160
120145160
120145155
125135155
125135155
135165185
140175190
140160190
Source: Pulp & Paper Week
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FL COMPOSITE
2X4 S&B GRN DF PDX
2X4 S&B KD WESTERN SPF
KEY LUMBER MARKET INDICATORS
MAY
MAY
MAY
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUL
JUL
JUL
AUG
AUG
AUG
SEP
SEP
SEP
OCT
OCT
OCT
NOV
NOV
NOV
DEC
DEC
DEC
JAN
JAN
JAN
FEB
FEB
FEB
MAR
MAR
MAR
APR
APR
APR
MAY
MAY
MAY
JUN
JUN
JUN
JUL
JUL
JUL
AUG
AUG
AUG
SEP
SEP
SEP
OCT
OCT
OCT
NOV
NOV
NOV
DEC
DEC
DEC
JAN
JAN
JAN
FEB
FEB
FEB
MAR
MAR
MAR
APR
APR
APR
325
287
291
326
310
296
302
278
277
304
252
278
274
200
240
280
220
226
278
240
240
296
250
260
282
265
236
290
250
255
274
238
231
288
243
230
295
242
268
311
262
285
289
245
249
285
237
253
271
202
227
254
172
220
270
178
237
264
167
217
238
162
184
243
178
194
238
208
197
270
258
216
2006
2007
Source: Pulp & Paper Week
2008
ONP#8
OCC#11
DLK #13
KEY RECOVERED FIBER MARKET INDICATORS
Forest Resources Association
WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY
*APRIL 2008*Southern Interior1825 Leslie Road #136, Richland, Washington 99352
British ColumbiaPhone: (509) 396-2478 FAX: (509) 396-2481
E-mail: [email protected]
Chip Conversion FactorsReported Volumes in Thousand BDT's
1 Bone Dry Ton = .833 Bone Dry Unit; (1 BDU = 1.2 BDT)Softwood Whole-log Chips53.18
1 Oven Dry Metric Tonne = 1.1023 BDT; (1BDT = .9072 ODMT)Softwood Residual Chips157.90
1 ODMT = .9186 BDU; (1 BDU = 1.08864 ODMT)TOTAL RECEIPTS:211.8
Softwood Chips166.06
Log Conversion FactorsTOTAL CHIP CONSUMPTION:166.06Adjustments**Calculated inventory variance:
I metric tonne = 1000 kilograms; 2204.5855 pounds;Softwood Chips172.83-12.26i.e. beginning inventory
I cubic metre (m3) = 35.31 Cubic foot; 1 Cu ft = .0283 m3)Pulp Logs116.2326.21plus receipts
Cubic Metres to Tons of Logs is moisture, seasonal, and species sensitiveTOTAL MONTH END INVENTORY:289.0613.95minus consumption
2006
2007
Source: Random Lengths
2008
&CPage 4 of 4
000
&A
Page &P
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1998 WESTERN MONTHLY FIBER SUMMARY
0.9071940488
0.8928571429
0.8836264028
0.9022013713
0.8975049363
0.8919015341
0.8816009874
0.8573388203
0.8456659619
0.8611039352
0.8651267411
0.8953353031
0.9316191541
0.9440196356
0.937470704
0.9425959091
1.0071507705
1.0474494606
1.0101010101
1.0183299389
1.0030090271
1.0216591745
0.977326036
0.9866798224
Thousand Bone Dry Tons
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Cdn Dollar
Japanese Yen (in 100s)
Chinese Yuan (in tens)
Australia Dollar
Chilean Peso (in 1000s)
Euro
Ratio
Exchange Rates per US Dollar
May
May
May
May
May
May
June
June
June
June
June
June
July
July
July
July
July
July
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
March
March
March
March
March
March
April
April
April
April
April
April
May
May
May
May
May
May
June
June
June
June
June
June
July
July
July
July
July
July
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
March
March
March
March
March
March
April
April
April
April
April
April
1.1023
1.1217
0.8041
1.3136
0.5355
0.7798
1.12
1.1632
0.8007
1.37
0.5733
0.7969
1.1317
1.14658
0.7981
1.3034
0.56244
0.7838
1.1084
1.16937
0.79691
1.3101
0.554176
0.7795
1.1142
1.1793
0.79168
1.3394
0.537789
0.7883
1.1212
1.1745
0.78874
1.3008
0.52595
0.786
1.1343
1.16078
0.78466
1.2768
0.529355
0.759
1.1664
1.1911
0.78175
1.2685
0.5326
0.758
1.1825
1.2177
0.7786
1.2949
0.5447
0.7716
1.1613
1.1978
0.7752
1.2611
0.536
0.7573
1.1559
1.17928
0.77409
1.238
0.53928
0.75
1.1169
1.1967
0.7732
1.2056
0.5275
0.7327
1.0734
1.2159
0.76564
1.2204
0.52717
0.7442
1.0593
1.2332
0.76248
1.1784
0.5278
0.7422
1.0667
1.18525
0.75772
1.1752
0.52425
0.7324
1.0609
1.1573
0.75558
1.2234
0.5245
0.7328
0.9929
1.1491
0.75176
1.1269
0.5112
0.701
0.9547
1.1466
0.7482
1.0877
0.4945
0.694
0.99
1.0998
0.7392
1.1319
0.5134
0.6761
0.982
1.1235
0.7314
1.1419
0.4977
0.6794
0.997
1.0698
0.7202
1.1254
0.4646
0.6765
0.9788
1.0618
0.7123
1.0606
0.4584
0.6611
1.0232
0.9929
0.7022
1.0908
0.44
0.6333
1.0135
1.0406
0.6996
1.0697
0.456
0.6407
2006
2007
2008
Canadian Dollar in %
Percent
Canadian Dollar as a Percentage of US Dollar, (end of each month)
199.41231.62
226.62213.4
228.58169.24
232.13146.87
224.26161.12
208.18177.63
182.7188.21
216.65160
222.86146.64
192.39169.72
227.11174.44
204.74202.31
174.6266.97
207.88299.29
217.76290.41
235.7297.39
219.1347.03
223.9310.41
214.88284.02
233.69228.86
215.11226.7
212.13244.02
206.79257.99
166.06289.06
2006
2007
2008
Consumption
Ending Inventory
Thousand Bone Dry Tons
MBD0045F6C4.psd
Boise | Building a New BoiseNetPage *
Pacific Northwest Woodchip MarketNW Pulp Mills: Days of Inventory
Building a New BoiseNet
Boise | Building a New BoiseNetPage *
NW Fiber Future Supply/Demand and Cost DriversHousing starts: Doldrums continue with current annual rate of 940K no end in sight; oversupply of existing and new homes; Heaven in 2011Pulp & Paper: Forecasts show weakening in markets in late 2008 and 2009; operating rates will not vary widely from current except if major recession is at hand; who will survive the cost crunch?Residual chips: Lumber production rates (housing starts); technology enhancements create higher recovery rates, lower chip outputs; super-mills; log costs need to align with product pricing; forest management/timber harvest politicsPulpwood availability/cost: Cyclical through the operating season; demands will remain high through 2009; competition with low value sawlogs; thank God for blowdownDiesel cost who knows? $7.00/gallon?Export chip volume: Can the Japanese continue to consume chips at delivered prices in excess of $240/BDU?; exchange rate impacts?Alder supply: Resource dwindles further over time; demand increases; planting programsCompeting uses: Board plants; pellet mills; cellulosic ethanol; biofuelsWood products business adaptations: Mill closures/consolidation of non-integrated mills; professional sellersPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
Building a New BoiseNet
Boise | Building a New BoiseNetPage *
Hardwood ConsiderationsCurrent chip prices are high paper margins low drivers are haul costs, resource availability, softwood lumber business doldrums, blowdown species distributionHardwood demand long term no changeLumber markets will remain strong over time (product shifts)Wood chip usage by pulp mills will remain at current levels as mills continue to make value-added products that demand hardwood contentNo new sawmill residuals in short term (Independence, OR)Whole log chips will comprise +70% of the marketLog prices pulpwood value will remain higher than SW, lumber will vary with market demandsResource constraints will continueTotal growing stock will decline in next decade by +10% mainly in conifer/mixed conifer stands (mostly in smaller size classes)Land ownership changes of concern (TIMOs, REITs, etc; conversion to other uses)Total harvest levels will probably continue at the current levels for the next five to ten years10+ years - current harvest level not sustainable without intensive management of alder (10-15K acres planted annually?) currently disproportionate to conifer standsPacific Northwest Woodchip Market
Building a New BoiseNet