Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2010) 368, 5173–5184doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0199

Past, present and future precipitation in theMiddle East: insights from models and

observationsBY EMILY BLACK1,*, DAVID J. BRAYSHAW1 AND CLAIRE M. C. RAMBEAU2

1NCAS Climate and Department of Meteorology, and 2School of Human andEnvironmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularlyin regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However,climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover,standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitationin the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodiesand proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes overthe twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene andinterannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and tomake consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulationsof the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations.We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle Eastprojected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that whichoccurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlanticstorm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreasedwinter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall furthernorth. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the MiddleEast are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the northMediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Keywords: precipitation; Middle East; Levant; climate change; Holocene

1. Introduction

All of the IPCC models project that under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas(GHG) scenario, boreal winter precipitation in the Middle East will decreaseand temperature will increase, with significant changes evident by the end of thetwenty-first century (e.g. Kitoh et al. 2008; Evans 2009). The resultant reductionin available water is likely to have devastating consequences for the people ofthe Middle East—many of whom already live in conditions of water poverty.Understanding the mechanisms underlying these projected changes is essentialfor critically evaluating the veracity of the projections. Other papers in this issuedescribe various aspects of both the future and the past climate of the Middle*Author for correspondence (e.c.l.black@reading.ac.uk).

One contribution of 14 to a Discussion Meeting Issue ‘Water and society: past, present and future’.

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East. This short contribution brings together these strands of research into acomparison between the evolution of climate through the Holocene, projectedchanges over the twenty-first century, and the interannual variability experiencedtoday. The questions we aim to address are as follows.

— To what extent is the regional climate model (RCM)’s simulation of thedifferences between late and early Holocene precipitation consistent withthe proxy evidence?

— To what extent can the aridification of the Middle East that occurred inthe past be considered an analogue for the drying projected for the future?

— Are the mechanisms underlying interannual variability (i.e. the occurrenceof particularly dry seasons) similar to those underlying the aridificationduring the Holocene, and the projected aridification over the twenty-firstcentury?

The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 summarizes theobserved data and modelling methodologies; §3 gives a brief overview of thepresent-day climate; §4 describes how climate in the Mediterranean region hasevolved during the Holocene, with particular focus on the well-known aridificationexperienced by the Middle East since the early Holocene; §5 describes regionalmodel projections for the end of the twenty-first century. Section 6 compares past,present and future climate change/variability and discusses the ramifications ofthese comparisons for the credibility of the future projections. Section 7 drawssome preliminary conclusions.

2. Data and methodology

The sources of the published palaeoenvironmental data referred to in this paperare described in §4. The following section summarizes the historical climate dataand modelling methodologies.

(a) Observed data

Global Precipitation Climate Centre (GPCC) data were used for the historicalrainfall data analyses. The GPCC product referred to in this study is a 0.5 × 0.5◦gridded product, which is based only on rain gauge measurements (Schneider et al.2008). The wind data used for the calculation of 850 mb vorticity were taken fromthe ERA-40 re-analysis. The methods of calculating vorticity and deriving trackdensities are summarized in Brayshaw et al. (2010) and described in detail inHodges (1994, 1995).

(b) Modelling methodology

The climate in the Mid-Holocene was investigated through a time-sliceexperiment at 8 ka. This was one of a set of time-slice experiments for 12, 10,8, 6, 4 and 2 ka, the pre-industrial period and the present day, carried outas part of the study described in Brayshaw et al. (2010). For each time slice,the climate forcings were specified to correspond to those experienced at thetime period in question. Specifically, the forcings included were changes in GHG

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concentrations (CO2 and CH4 only), the Earth’s orbital parameters and, forperiods at or before 8 ka, land ice sheets and sea level. These integrations cannotbe considered a true snapshot of the climate at a particular time because of theinternal variability of the atmosphere, uncertainties in the initial conditions ofthe atmosphere and ocean and omission of potentially important feedbacks andforcings, such as land surface change. However, comparison between time slicesgives insight into how the climate has responded to changes in natural forcingsduring the Holocene.

Each integration lasted 20 years—a length chosen to give some idea ofinterannual variability without being prohibitively expensive. The global runswere carried out using the Hadley Centre HadSM3 global climate model. TheHadRM3 RCM, forced by boundary conditions from the global model, was thenused to dynamically downscale the output over the Mediterranean area. HadRM3is based on the Hadley Centre atmosphere-only model HadAM3 (described fullyin Pope et al. (2000)). The formulation of HadRM3 used both in this contributionand in Brayshaw et al. (2010) has a horizontal resolution of 0.44◦ and 19 levelsin the vertical.

The future climate integrations followed a generally similar method, with aglobal climate model (in this case HadAM3 forced with sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies from HadCM3) providing lateral boundary forcing for HadRM3.The only forcing applied was changes in GHG concentrations. As with thepast time slices, the impact of land surface change was not considered. In thiscontribution, two simulations are considered:

— a baseline scenario (1961–1990) driven with lateral boundary conditionsderived from a run of HadAM3P forced with observed climatological SSTand land surface at the lower boundary and

— an A2 emission scenario (2070–2100) driven with lateral boundaryconditions derived from HadAM3P forced with HadCM3 A2 scenario SSTchanges added to the observed SST.

3. Present-day rainfall variability

Most rainfall in the Middle East falls in boreal winter, as a result of theeastward passage of Mediterranean cyclones over the region (see seasonal cycleshown in figure 1). The summer is almost completely dry, with occasional rainyevents triggered by anomalous synoptic conditions (Ziv et al. 2004). AlthoughMediterranean cyclones are the dominant cause of rainfall, other factors alsoplay an important role. In particular, the occurrence of Red Sea trough systemsis the main cause of rainfall in October and May (Tsvieli & Zangvil 2005).Moreover, although uncommon during the boreal winter, when they occur,Red Sea troughs may cause intense rainfall and flooding (Krichak et al. 2000;Ziv et al. 2005).

The Middle East experiences large interannual variability in annualprecipitation (see time series shown in figure 1). For example, in Jerusalem,the standard deviation in annual precipitation is approximately 30 per cent ofthe mean. The proximity of the Middle East to Europe raises the possibility thatthe modes of variability that affect rainfall in Europe also affect the Middle East,

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250(a) (b)

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Figure 1. (a) Seasonal cycle and (c) time series of annual total precipitation for Jerusalem (locationshown in (b)). The error bars on the seasonal cycle in precipitation represent one standard deviationfrom the mean.

and previously published work suggests that this is the case. Eshel & Farrell(2000, 2001) demonstrate links between Middle East rainfall and circulation overEurope and the Atlantic, whereas Krichak et al. (2002) found a link betweeneast Mediterranean rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/EastAtlantic West Russia (EAWR) pattern and argued that variability in the regionis primarily affected by the EAWR, with secondary influence from the NAO(Krichak et al. 2002; Krichak & Alpert 2005a,b).

On a more local level, Enzel et al. (2003) argued that interannual variabilityin Israel rainfall is modulated by a shift in the path of cyclones over theMediterranean, with rainy years associated with a southward diversion of thecyclones over Jordan and Israel and dry years associated with a northwarddiversion of the cyclones over Turkey. Enzel et al.’s conclusions are borne outby the composites of precipitation and cyclone track densities for the five wettestand five driest years shown in figure 2. The precipitation composites show thatdry years in Israel are associated with higher than average rainfall in Europe(figure 2a). Consistent with this, the track density composite (figure 2b) showsthat there tend to be more weather systems crossing the northern Mediterraneanduring dry years than during wet years. This suggests that during dry years,the Mediterranean storm track is generally stronger, but that its location andorientation lead to fewer cyclones entering Jordan and Israel.

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–500

–2 –1 0 1 2

–60 –45 –30 –15 0 15 30 45 60 500

(a)

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Figure 2. (a) Difference in precipitation between the five wettest and five driest years in a regiondefined by the longitudes and latitudes: 34/35/31.5/32.5 (October–March since 1948). (b) Trackdensity difference between the five wettest and five driest years (December–February).

The composites in figure 2 indicate that variability in mid-latitude weathersystems influences interannual variability in Israel precipitation. It is,nevertheless, likely that other factors are also relevant. Specifically, the frequencyof Red Sea troughs may be important (Tsvieli & Zangvil 2005). The compositeplots shown in figure 2 hint at this, with low rainfall in the Middle East associatedwith fewer than usual weather systems entering the region from the south. Theseresults are, however, preliminary and inconclusive, and further studies are neededto clarify the relationship between Red Sea troughs, mid-latitude cyclones andinterannual variability in Middle East rainfall.

4. Holocene climate in the Middle East and Europe: models and observations

Palaeoclimate proxies suggest that during the Early and mid-Holocene (i.e.approx. 12–8 ka), precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle Eastwas markedly different than it is today, with southern Europe, the Mediterraneanand the Middle East being wetter and northern Europe drier. In particular,

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Figure 3. Summary of rainfall signal from the proxy data for the Middle East and Europe describedin the text. Pluses indicate an increase in rainfall during the Holocene (i.e. the Early and Mid-Holocene were drier than the present day) and minuses indicate a decrease in rainfall during theHolocene (i.e. the Early and Mid-Holocene were wetter than the present day).

vegetation reconstructions for Europe over the Holocene suggest that between9 and 6 ka colder winters, warmer summers and greater available moisture ledto the replacement in much of northern Europe of the deciduous forests, whichdominated prior to 9 ka, by mixed and boreal forests (Landmann et al. 2002). Incontrast to the situation in northern Europe, geological and isotopic data fromlakes in Israel, Turkey, Greece and Spain suggest more available moisture (greaterprecipitation) in the Early Holocene in southern Europe (Landmann et al. 1996;Giralt et al. 1999; Roberts et al. 2001). Moreover, changes in vegetation type andpollen assemblages for southern Europe are consistent with the hypothesis that,between 9 and 6 ka, Mediterranean type vegetation replaced the deciduous foreststhat dominated in the Early Holocene (Huntley & Prentice 1993).

Direct comparison between proxies taken from different localities supportsthe hypothesis that local variations in precipitation were part of a Europe-widepattern. Comparison of d18O time series for three speleothems suggests thatclimate variability in southern Europe was in anti-phase with that in southwestIreland throughout the Holocene (McDermott et al. 1999). Lacustrine recordsacross Europe are also responsive to increased rainfall (Roberts et al. 2008) andshow a significant shift in isotopic signals during the Holocene.

Consistent with the Europe-wide pattern of precipitation change during theHolocene, there is substantial evidence that the Middle East has become drierduring the Holocene. In particular, a decrease in Pistacia and oak in the pollenrecords (Horowitz 1971, 1989; Rossignol-Strick 1995, 1999) and a northwardmigration of the Negev Desert boundary during the Holocene (Goodfriend 1999)point to aridification during the Holocene. Further west, the deposition of redpalaeosols on the Israeli coastal plain during the early Holocene indicates a higherprecipitation at this time (Gvirtzman & Wieder 2001). The increase in annualrainfall suggested by all these records is consistent with higher Dead Sea levels(e.g. Neev & Emery 1995; Klinger et al. 2003; Robinson et al. 2006). Conservativeestimates of palaeo-rainfall from cave sequences at this time suggest values of550 and 700 mm yr−1 in comparison with 300 mm yr−1 or less in that region now(Bar-Matthews et al. 2003). The differences between Late and Early Holoceneclimate for the Middle East and for Europe described in this section are sketchedin figure 3.

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–500

(c)

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(d)

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–60 –45 –30 –15 0 15 30 45 60 500

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Figure 4. (a,b) Changes in October–March precipitation and (c,d) December–Februarytrack density for (from left to right): pre-industrial compared to the 8 ka time slice (pre-industrialminus 8 ka); future (2070–2100) compared to the present day (i.e. future minus present).

The model time-slice experiments exhibit a broadly similar pattern ofprecipitation change during the Holocene to that suggested by the climateproxy observations (figure 4). In particular, the RCM suggests a decrease inboreal winter rainfall during the Mid-Holocene in southern Europe. Brayshawet al. (2010) suggest that these precipitation changes result from global andregional scale changes in the storm tracks in response to gradual changesin GHG concentrations and insolation. The broad pattern of precipitationchanges suggested by the proxy evidence is consistent with this hypothesis.In particular, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and aweakening of the Mediterranean storm track are consistent with the increase inprecipitation in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe suggested bythe proxy evidence.

Although the spatial pattern in rainfall changes during the Holocene iscaptured reasonably well, the approximately 25 per cent increase in rainfallprojected for Jerusalem would not be sufficient to cause the observed changes inDead Sea level, which require a doubling in rainfall (Whitehead et al. in press).This suggests either that the changes in the storm track cannot, in themselves,explain the higher precipitation during the Early Holocene or that they are unableto represent the magnitude of the change. There is some evidence that feedbacksnot included in the RCM time-slice integrations would generate extra rainfall.Sensitivity studies, in which a green Sahara was imposed on the model, indicatethat changes in the African land surface may have contributed some extra rainfall(Brayshaw et al. in press). Nevertheless, the biases in precipitation revealed bycomparison with historical data (described fully in Black 2009) suggest that muchof the deficit in rainfall is attributable to model deficiencies.

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5. Future climate projections

Figure 4 shows that under a business-as-usual scenario, precipitation in the wholeof southern Europe and the Middle East is projected to decrease. These results areconsistent with published studies (e.g. Lionello & Giorgi 2007; Kitoh et al. 2008;Mariotti et al. 2008; Black 2009; Evans 2009) and the fourth IPCC assessment(Christensen et al. 2007). The track density changes shown in figure 4 indicatethat these changes in boreal winter precipitation are accompanied by a reductionin the number of low pressure systems crossing the Mediterranean, which wouldindicate a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track. A poleward shift ofthe Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track inresponse to GHG-driven climate change are also suggested by several other studiesusing different models and scenarios (e.g. Bengtsson et al. 2006; Lionello & Giorgi2007; Pinto et al. 2007).

A survey of changes in the daily rainfall statistics for the Jordan River regionsuggests that the projected decrease in the boreal winter rainfall results froma decrease in the number of storms entering the Middle East rather than areduction in their intensity (Black 2009). Thus, the model projections presentedhere along with several published studies suggest that under some emissionsscenarios, precipitation in the Middle East will decrease in a manner consistentwith a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track.

6. Comparison between past, future and present variability: ramifications forfuture projections

For a given emissions scenario and a set of initial conditions, the credibilityof our projections of precipitation change rests on how well climate modelscan represent underlying mechanisms. Black (2009) demonstrated that thegeneral spatial patterns and seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperatureare well represented by the model used in this study, although precipitationintensity is underestimated. Moreover, several published studies using a varietyof regional and global models (e.g. Bengtsson et al. 2006; Lionello & Giorgi2007) show that the Mediterranean storm track can be adequately simulatedby climate models. As was discussed in §5, these same studies argue thatthe Mediterranean storm track will weaken in response to increasing GHGconcentrations. The fact that the dominant cause of the reduction in rainfallis consistently projected by several climate models lends credence to theprojection.

The RCM’s ability to represent some features of precipitation change overEurope during the Holocene suggests that it can capture the gross precipitationresponse to highly perturbed global forcings. Although this lends a degree ofcredence to its projections of future climate, the RCM’s representation of someaspects of precipitation remains poor, and significant uncertainty remains—particularly with regard to projections of rainfall intensity.

In a broad sense, the RCM’s ability to represent both the present-day patternsin precipitation and the regional precipitation response to a strongly perturbedclimate forcing lends credibility to its projections for the future (with the caveatsgiven above). More specifically, the possibility exists that some aspects of the

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aridification during the Holocene are analogous to the projected drying in future.In particular, although the ultimate forcings of the climate system are ratherdifferent, the changes in the boreal winter climate of the tropics simulated andobserved in the past resemble those projected for the future (i.e. the tropicswarm over time) with profound implications for the atmospheric circulation.The response of the Mediterranean climate, and specifically precipitation in theMiddle East, to these large-scale changes in the climate in the past appears to besomewhat analogous to that projected for the future.

The similarity between the differences between precipitation in the Mid-Holocene and pre-industrial period (both observed and simulated by the climatemodel) and those projected over the next hundred years adds weight tothis argument (figure 4). In particular, in both cases, a weakening of theMediterranean storm track leads to reduced precipitation over the Mediterraneanand its northern and eastern margins, along with increased precipitation furthernorth and west.

It is interesting to compare the long-term changes in climate experiencedduring the Holocene and projected for the future with the present-day interannualvariability. Comparison between figures 2 and 4 shows that although themagnitude of rainfall variability on interannual time scales is similar tothe changes projected for the future and experienced during the Holocene,the underlying mechanisms are different: while long-term aridification resultsfrom a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track, unusually dry years resultfrom a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north of theMediterranean. Consistent with this, on interannual time scales, dry conditionstend to be restricted to eastern margin of the Mediterranean (including Jordan,Israel, Lebanon and some of Syria) with wet conditions prevailing further northand west.

Comparison between present-day interannual variability and future/past shiftsin the European and Middle East climate is highly relevant to our understandingof the social and hydrological impacts of climate change. The differences in thespatial scales of interannual variability and longer term climate change may meanthat the social and political methods currently used to cope with interannualvariability are not applicable to the climate change situation. One of the reasonsfor this is that hydrological systems are affected by rainfall over a large area, andhence the scale over which rainfall anomalies occur is of crucial importance totheir impact.

In summary, the comparisons presented here suggest that climate change overthe next century may have more in common with the evolution of climatethrough the Holocene than with the variability experienced today. Improvedunderstanding of the factors that drove past changes in the climate may thusprovide valuable insight into the changes projected for the future. Moreover,comparison with proxy observations of the past is a tough but crucial test of aclimate model’s ability to simulate the response of the Earth system to stronglyperturbed global forcings. This study is a first attempt at comparing RCMoutput with proxy observations and relating Holocene climate change with futureprojections. Further work is needed to improve the realisticness of climate modelsimulations of the region, compare proxy data and climate model output moreformally and investigate sources of Middle East climate variability and changeother than the storm tracks.

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7. Conclusions

— Both climate and proxy observations suggest that the Middle East andsouthern Europe have become drier during the Holocene and that northernEurope has become wetter.

— The pattern of precipitation changes since the Mid-Holocene simulatedby the RCM has some similarity to those projected by the end of thetwenty-first century under an A2 scenario.

— The RCM’s capacity to replicate the general pattern of precipitationchanges observed in the proxy and observed record lends credenceto the future projections. Moreover, the fact that increases in GHGconcentrations and changes in the spatio-temporal distribution ofinsolation (driven by orbital variations) have caused a poleward shift inthe storm track in the past adds credibility to the projection of such achange in the future.

— The underlying mechanism, and hence the spatial scale of interannualvariability in precipitation, appears to be markedly different from thatunderlying future and past climate change.

The boundary conditions for the future climate scenarios were provided by the Hadley Centreregional modelling group. This work was funded by the Leverhulme Trust as part of the Water,Life and Civilisation project.

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