patterns of temperature and avian influenza outbreaks carol matasci pacific disaster center...
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Patterns of Temperature and Avian
Influenza Outbreaks
Carol MatasciPacific Disaster Center
Supervisor: Pam Cowher
Avian Influenza
Global Outbreak
2 – 7.4 million deaths
231 total human cases
133 deaths confirmed by WHO
(World Health Organization) As of July 20, 2006
Avian Influenza and Temperature
Temp°C
Temp°F
Virus Survival
4 °C 39.2 °F 35 days
37 °C 98.6 °F 6 days
What is the relationship between temperature and the location of outbreaks?
Intent
PredictPrevent
AndPrepare
Minimize HarmfulImpact
Analyze
Geographical Information
Systems(GIS)
Store and manipulate data
in layers
Avian Influenza Case Data
• Avian Influenza Case Data Source:
•This analysis: avian cases only
World Organisation for Animal Health
World Climate Data
Climate Data Source:
The Global Historical
Climatology Network (GHCN)
Microsoft Access
ArcGIS
World Climate Data
Problem: some areas had little data
Indonesia
2005 Stations
Temperature Stations around
the world
World Temperature Interpolation
Example: January 2006Inverse Distance
Weighting (IDW) Interpolation
Elevation Adjustmen
t Model
Average Month Temperature
Map
Pairing Temperature and Case Data
• Avian Case & Temperature
• Number of cases / temperature
January 2006
Month PriorTemperature
Month AfterTemperature
Month OfTemperature
AvianCase &
Statistical Analysis
Pearson Correlation
What is the relationship between temperature and the number of outbreaks?
- Assumes linear distribution
- Does a correlation exist?
0.143 correlation
No significant correlation
Statistical AnalysisFurther graphical examination in Microsoft Excel
No satisfactory trendline
Bimodal Distribution
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-24
-21
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Temperature (C)
Fre
qu
en
cy
(#
ou
tbre
ak
s)
Further Analysis
Analysis of bimodal distribution:
Countries with cases at 2°C
Suggests that temperature may influence outbreaks through migration patterns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-24
-18
-14
-10 -6 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30
Temperature (C)
Fre
qu
ency
of
ou
tbre
aks
DOM
MIG
Temperature and Case Animation
Further Research Suggested
• PROCESS can be used again• Data:
– More detailed temperature data– More detailed case data– Larger spread of cases– More time
• Domestic vs. Migratory Case Patterns
temperature migration
outbreaks
Conclusion
“A kolea, or plover, was a bad omen for ancient Hawaiians. A bird circling a home while uttering an eerie cry was a sign of death. “
+
temperature
other factors
Protect Hawai’iand the rest of the world
Avian Influenza
Model
Mahalo!Pam CowherBryan BoruffMaria NievesSharon Mielbrecht
Malika BellLisa HunterHilary O’BryanShort Course Team
Leslie WilkinsIsla Yap
Mark Hoffman
Kahu Charles Kauluwehi Maxwell
Funding provided through the Center for Adaptive Optics, a National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center (STC), AST-987683.
Resources
• http://www.noaa.gov/• http://www.who.int/topics/avian_influenza/en/• http://www.oie.int/eng/en_index.htm • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adiabatic_lapse_rat
e• www.hawaii.edu• http://starbulletin.com/2003/03/09/features/sto
ry1.html
• Elevation data: Shuttle Radar Topology Mission (SRTM)
• Data Source: Pacific Disaster Center
Questions?