Pay Now or Pay Later?Investing in Education

Emer Smyth and Selina McCoy

TUI National Symposium ‘Investing in Education’

17 October 2009

Outline of presentation

1. Educational expenditure

2. Overview of educational inequality

3. Consequences and costs of early

school leaving

4. Educational policy in relation to

disadvantage

5. Current policy climate

Educational expenditure

Expenditure on education increased over the period 1992-2007 but:

More is spent per capita on third-level than on earlier stages

Ireland still falls behind average spending levels in EU 19 and OECD countries

Educational inequality in Ireland

Unequal outcomes at every stage of the

educational career

A child’s social background matters to: Their reading and mathematics performance at

primary level

The grades they achieve in the JC exam

Whether they stay on in school for the LC

The grades they achieve in the LC

Whether they go on to third-level education

Primary reading scores and mother’s education

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NQ JC LC PLC Degree Postgrad

1st class

5th class

Source: Educational Research Centre, 2005.

Leaving Certificate completion by social class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

Higher prof. Lower prof. Non-manual Farmer Skilled manual Semi-skilledmanual

Unskilledmanual

Source: School Leavers’ Survey.

Consequences of early leaving

Early school leaving has striking effects on a range of adult outcomes

Early leavers are more likely to be unemployed and, if unemployed, to be employed for a longer period

Unemployment rate (2008)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

%

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64

Early leaversLC+

Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.

Unemployment rate 15-64 year olds (April-June 2009)

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

Male Female

Early leaversLC+

Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.

Employment

Early leavers are more likely to work in less skilled jobs

They receive lower average pay, resulting in a significant life-time gap in earnings

Lone motherhood

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

%

20-24 25-34 35-44

Early leaversLC+

Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.

Health outcomes

Early leavers are more likely be in poor/fair rather than good health

Higher rates of anxiety/depression Higher rates of smoking and heavy

drinking Greater dependency on medical

card

Broader social outcomes

Vast majority of those in prison are

early leavers

In 2002, committal rate of 46.6 per

1,000 early leavers v. 1.6 for LC+

Consequences for educational

outcomes among the next generation

Costs for society of early leaving

Welfare payments for unemployed and lone parents

Income tax foregone for those not in employment

Health: Utilisation of health services Crime: Cost of imprisonment

(€92,717 p.a. in 2008)

Educational policy

Focus on targeted provision for schools with a concentration of children from disadvantaged backgrounds (DEIS)

New ESRI evidence shows that DEIS schools do indeed have a high concentration of disadvantaged students

Students with difficulties (>25%): Primary schools

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

%

Literacy Numeracy Emotional/ behavioural Absenteeism

Urban 1 Urban 2 Rural Non-DEIS

Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.

Students with difficulties (>25%): Second-level schools

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

%

Literacy Numeracy Emotional/ behavioural Absenteeism

DEIS Non-DEIS

Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.

Profile of DEIS schools Less likely to be over-subscribed Higher concentration of newcomer

(immigrant) and Traveller students Second-level: higher % of students

with learning or physical disabilities School climate: behaviour and

engagement of students; involvement of parents

But not all disadvantaged children are in DEIS (second-level) schools

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Semi/ unskilled Nonemployed

DEISNon-DEIS

Source: School Leavers’ Survey.

Perception of DEIS scheme

DEIS principals broadly positive about the scheme and School Completion Programme

Class size reductions Resources and planning for

literacy/numeracy Provision of meals within school Capacity to promote parental involvement But issues raised by principals and

stakeholders in relation to policy more generally

Issues for policy: Early intervention Gap on entry to school

“Children start off behind others, way behind the starting line, children who present at school significantly behind their peers … Basically they’re playing catch-up from then on.”

Can DEIS schools ‘close this gap’? Importance of preschool education

(potential of the new ECCE scheme)

Issues for policy: Targeting Targeting disadvantaged schools alone

is not enough – not all disadvantaged children are in DEIS schools

Reported difficulty among principals in providing information for targeting

“There is anecdotal evidence that ... the idea is you talk up your school, or talk down your school. If you’re being truly honest about your school, that can put you at a disadvantage … Schools can lose out if you’re being too honest.”

Issues for Policy: Fragmentation

Schools do not exist in isolation – need for joined-up policy across education, health and welfare services

“You can’t treat the child in isolation. …We would be able to pinpoint at four years of age children who are at risk for a number of reasons, it could be speech and language, it could be more emotional, or lack of emotional, development. And I don’t think as a society that we are providing those services. … We’re being reactive rather than proactive.”

Issues for Policy: What Can Schools Do?

Important to note that schools can make a difference to educational retention:

1. Positive school climate2. Positive disciplinary climate3. More active learning approaches4. Mixed ability grouping

Changes post-Budget 2008 Huge potential of new preschool

scheme ‘Ring-fencing’ of DEIS schools But potential impact of some

measures on DEIS schools Likely impact on disadvantaged

children in non-DEIS schools: book grants; grants for specific groups; programme grants; SEN students

Recent changes: On the ground”I think it’s the start of chipping away and dismantling a lot of the foundations for the weaker students in the system.”

“School has to be more than books, school has to be an experience for children and the sports and the games and the extra-curricular – that’s what has made our education system good. There was an emotional reaction almost to the Budget, they could see all of this being pulled … All of that qualitative enrichment of the curriculum, these things aren’t trips, they are enrichment of the curriculum. They are going and they are gone.”

The current climate Recession will impact more on

disadvantaged families McCarthy report raises likelihood of

further cuts in education spending Suggested measures will impact on

disadvantaged groups – student/teacher ratios, specialist staff, capitation fees

But no cost-benefit analysis of these measures even though educational investment is found to have long-term benefits

Final words: Pay now or pay later?

“Educational equity is a moral imperative for a society in which education is a crucial determinant of life chances.” (Henry Levin, US, 2009)

“We’re losing huge potential here.” (DEIS school principal, 2009)