understanding risk from eab: pay me now or pay me later
DESCRIPTION
Since its discovery in Michigan in 2002, Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) has spread to more than 22 states and two Canadian provinces, killing tens of millions of trees. Municipalities and utilities outside the current known areas of infestation must take steps to understand EAB’s potential impact to their electrical systems and public spaces. EAB illustrates a classic example of the pay-now-or-pay-later philosophy: pay now to develop a program to remove or treat ash trees that could impact infrastructure, thereby retaining cost control over these treatments; or wait and pay later, after the trees have died, and risk escalated removal costs, equipment damage, outages, lost revenue and negative customer impact.TRANSCRIPT
Understanding Risk from EAB: Pay Me Now
or Pay Me Later
Ed Cunningham - ECI Terry Wright - LGE & KU
LGE/KU TERRITORY
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB)
What is an EABLifecycleFood SourceDispersionSigns/Symptoms Issues/ConcernsEffectsECI - Impact AnalysisMitigation
What is an EAB?Emerald Ash Borer is an invasion beetleDark metallic green, slender and very smallHighly destructive to ash trees Native to China, Japan, and Russia
Found in Michigan in 2002▫ Cargo packing in ships
Lifecycle
Food Source
All ash in North America are susceptibleLarvae consumes the cambium layer
▫ Cambium is essentially the vascular system▫ Effectively girdles the tree, killing it quickly from the top down
Dispersion
Normal flight is between one-half to two miles per year
Firewood has been a major means of transporting EAB
Dispersion
▪ Federal EAB Quarantine Map▪ KY quarantined in 2014
Signs/SymptomsThinning of tree canopyCrown diebackMortality in 1 - 4 years depending on tree size and vigor
Signs/Symptoms
D-shaped exit holes in barkWon’t see holes in main trunk until tree has succumb to borerStart from the top (tender shoots) and work down
Issues and Concerns
Total EAB infestation by 2022 in KY
Estimated 266 million ash trees in KY▫ Ash represents 4% of tree population
Issues and Concerns
More expensive to remove▫ 25% of dieback, cannot safely climb▫ Trunks break off at ground line▫ Tree will also uproot due to root decay▫ Total removal, cannot make safe▫ Back yard bucket where feasible▫ Mortality within 1-3 years
Effects of EAB in Michigan
EAB has killed an estimated 35 million ash
Consumers Energy:▫ Estimated 150% reliability increase
▫ 30 mph wind = 2 day event
▫ $18M per year for 10 years▪ Outage restoration costs▪ Lost revenue▪ Affect 1M additional customers per year
Effects of EAB in Ohio
http://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/hermslab/images/Herms_EAB_Trial_Results_July_2012.pdf
Effect of EAB in Ohio
2012
ECI IMPACT ANALYSIS
Primary Goals:
▫ Quantify the number of Ash trees
▫ Estimate the budget requirements to remove Ash
▫ Estimate potential impacts to service reliability
ECI IMPACT ANALYSIS
Methodology:
▫ Random survey over 18,000 miles
▫ 13 operational centers
▫ 533 sample points
▫ Half-mile increments
ECI IMPACT ANALYSIS
Results:
▫ 54,000 Ash removals
▫ $27M over 10 years
▫ 16,000 additional tree outages▪ Impacting an additional 1M customers▪ SAIFI increasing 0.10
Mitigation
LGE/KU appropriated $27M over 10 yrs. to “Battle the EAB”
Staffing▫ 2 full time work planners
Locating Permitting Mapping
▫ 16 crews (51 men) Removing
Mitigation
Proactive vs. Reactive▫ Review every infested circuit annually▫ Proactivity is “KEY”
Sources:▫ Impact Analysis of EAB on the LG&E-KU Distribution System. December 2012.▫ UK College of Agriculture website. Entomology Department. ▫ Emeraldashborer.com▫ Wikipedia.org▫ Herms_EAB_Trial_Results_July_2012. OSU Report. http://www.oardc.ohio-
state.edu/hermslab/images/Herms_EAB_Trial_Results_July_2012.pdf▫ Emeraldashborer.info▫ Poland, Therese; McCullough, Deborah (April–May 2006). "Emerald Ash Borer:
Invasion of the Urban Forest and the Threat to North America’s Ash Resource". Journal of Forestry.
▫ https://datcpservices.wisconsin.gov/eab/article.jsp?topicid=13
Questions?
Slides to facilitate Q&A regarding ECI survey technique
