pdf lidl us update: answers to four key questions · lidl will open its first us stores in the...

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May5,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

LidlwillopenitsfirstUSstoresinthesummerof2017acrossthreeeasternstates:NorthCarolina,SouthCarolinaandVirginia.Thecompanyishiringforstore-basedrolesinatotalof38townsineighteasternstates.Thisreportprovidesanupdateonwhatweknowsofar,andprovidessomeanswerstofourquestions:

1) WhatdoweestimateLidl’sUSsaleswillbe?Weseeanapproximate1-2-4step-upinLidl’sUSsales:roughly$1billionin2018,$2billionin2019and$4billionin2020.ThesefigurespresumethatLidlwillopenjustunder100storesperyearintheUS.

2) WhatheadwindsandtailwindscouldLidlface?Lidlcouldfaceheadwindsintermsofcompromisingthequalityofstorelocationsinaraceforspaceanddivergingfromitstraditionalsmall-storeformat.Tailwindscouldincludeincreasedconsumerdemandforfreshandnaturalfoodsandmillennials’frugalitywhenitcomestoshoppingforgroceries.

3) Whichincumbentretailerslooktobemostatrisk?WeisMarketsandInglesMarketshavethegreatestexposureintheeightstatesinwhichLidlishiring.

4) WhatwillLidl’sUSofferinglooklike?WeexpectLidltooffermorefreshfoodsandasubstantialgeneralmerchandiseselectioninitsUSstores,andtopushtheUSprovenanceofmanyoftheproductsitoffers.

Lidl US Update: Answers to Four

Key Questions

Deborah Weinswig

Managing Director,

Fung Global Retail & Technology

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

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May5,2017


Source:Lidl

ThisreportprovidesanupdateonwhatweknowsofaraboutLidl’sentryintotheUSmarket.Itprovidessomeanswerstomajorquestionsaboutthediscountgrocer’sprospectsandimpact.WebeginbyprovidingsomekeyfactsonLidl’sUSandworldwideoperations.

LidlUS:KeyFacts• Lidlwillopenitsfirst20USstoresinthesummerof2017across

threeeasternstates:NorthCarolina,SouthCarolinaandVirginia.

• WhenwecheckedLidl’swebsiteonMarch22,thecompanywashiringforstore-basedrolesinatotalof38townsineighteasternstates:Delaware,Georgia,Maryland,NewJerseyandPennsylvania,aswellasNorthCarolina,SouthCarolinaandVirginia.

• Lidlisaimingforstoresofabout36,000grosssquarefeet,peritspropertyadvertisements.Storeswilltypicallyhave21,000squarefeetofnetsellingspace,accordingtoaFebruary2017WashingtonPostinterviewwithBrendanProctor,Lidl’sUSCEO.

• ThatmeansLidlisseekingUSstoresthatareapproximately40%biggerthanitslargestEuropeanstores(whichare15,000squarefeet)androughlydoublethesizeofitstypicalstoreworldwide.Bycomparison,Aldi’saverageUSstoreis10,000squarefeet.

• Lidl’sUSheadquartersisinArlington,Virginia,andithasestablishedthreedistributioncenters:SpotsylvaniaCounty,Virginia;AlamanceCounty,NorthCarolina;andCecilCounty,Maryland.

LidlWorldwide:KeyFacts• LidlispartoftheprivatelyownedSchwarzGroup,whichalsoowns

theKauflanddiscounthypermarketchain.Lidl’sworldwidenetsaleswere€64.4billion(US$71billion)intheyearendedFebruary2016,up9%yearoveryear.SchwarzGroupreportedtotalnetrevenuesof€85.7billion(US$94.4billion)intheyearendedFebruary2016,up8%yearoveryear.

• AccordingtoaDecember2016interviewinGermany’sManagerMagazin,SchwarzGroupCEOKlausGehrigexpectsLidltoreportrevenueofmorethan€70billion(US$77.1billion)fortheyearendedFebruary2017.

• Lidloperatedapproximately10,000storesworldwideasofFebruary2016.Theaveragestoresizewasapproximately9,208squarefeetin2016,accordingtoouranalysisofEuromonitorInternationaldata.

• Lidlisalimited-linediscounterthatfocusesheavilyonitsown-brandproductsingroceryandoffersano-frillsexperience.However,thenumberofproductsofferedhascreptupinrecentyears.InitsstoresinItaly,Lidlreportedlynowoffers1,700products.IntheUK,itslaststatedSKUcount(in2013)was1,600,andthecompanysaidthatitaimedtoincreasethatnumberto1,700in2014.

• Bynumberofstores,Lidl’sbiggestmarketsare,indescendingorder,Germany,France,Poland,theUK,Italy,Spain,theNetherlands,theCzechRepublic,Belgium,Portugal,GreeceandAustria.

Lidl’sworldwidenetsaleswere€64.4billion(US$71billion)intheyearendedFebruary2016,up9%yearoveryear.

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FourKeyQuestions

1. WhatDoWeEstimateLidl’sUSSalesWillBe?Weseeanapproximate1-2-4structuretoLidl’sUSsales:weestimatethatthecompanywillgenerateroughly$1billioninUSsalesin2018,$2billionin2019and$4billionin2020.Toputthisincontext,Krogergeneratedrevenuesof$115billionintheyearendedJanuary2017.However,revenuesinthelowsinglebillionswouldplaceLidlinthesameballparkasInglesMarket,whichhad$3.2billioninsalesin2016;SproutsFarmersMarket,whichhad$4.3billioninsalesin2016;andSuperValu,whichhad$4.8billioninsalesin2016(allfiguresarefromEuromonitor).

OurestimatesassumethatLidlwillopenjustunder100newstoresperyear.AccordingtoTheWashingtonPost,Lidlisplanningtoopen100USstoresbymid-2018.Estimatespublishedbyvariousresearchfirmsbetweenautumn2016andspring2017placedthenumberofsitesunderdevelopmentbetween80and225.

Figure1.LidlUS:EstimatedSales(LeftAxis;USDBil.)andEstimatedYear-EndStoreNumbers(RightAxis)

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Oursalesestimatesarebasedonanumberofmetrics,includingsalesdensitiesatAldiUS,othercompetingUSretailersandLidl(bothgloballyandinselectedmaturemarkets).Ourestimatesassumeagradualincreaseinaveragesalesdensitiesandarebasedonaverageannualstorenumbers.

2. WhatHeadwindsandTailwindsCouldLidlFace?

PotentialHeadwindsLidlisnotsomuchdippingitstoesinthewaterasdivingstraightin—anditisdoingsowithastoreformatthatdiffersfromwhatituseselsewhereintheworld.Weseethefollowingrisksassociatedwiththesedecisions:

• Araceforspace:Giventheproposedpaceofstoreopenings,thereisariskthatLidlwillpursuequantityofphysicalspaceoverqualityoflocationintermsofshopperaccessandvisibility.

1.0

2.3

3.9120

210

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

2018 2019 2020

Sales Stores

Weseeanapproximate1-2-4structuretoLidl’sUSsales:$1billionin2018,$2billionin2019and$4billionin2020.

IntheUS,Lidlisnotsomuchdippingitstoesinthewaterasdivingstraightin.

2019E 2020E2018E

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• Limitedtimetoadjust:Similarly,bybuildingoutanetworkofstoresbeforethefirststorehasevenopened,LidlislimitingitsabilitytoadjustitsstoreformatsandoverallofferingasitexpandsintheUS.

• Movingintounfamiliarformats:TheUSstoresareadeparturefromLidl’soperatingmodelintermsofsize.WhilethesizeofnewstoreshasbeencreepingupindiscountretailinEurope,Lidl’saimofopeningstoresof36,000grosssquarefeetintheUSisaleapintoadifferentformatfortheretailer.

Inaggregate,therisksLidlfacesappearsimilartothosethataffectedFresh&Easy,Tesco’sfailedUSchainofsmaller-format,fresh-focusedgrocerystores.Fresh&Easyadoptedaformatthatwasdistinctfromitsparentcompany’s,andthechainwassaidtohavebeenhinderedbysomepoor-qualitysites—althoughunluckytimingalsoplayedarole,asthechainlaunchedonlyshortlybeforetheGlobalFinancialCrisishit.

Wewonderif,intime,Lidlwilladoptaslightlyslowerpaceofexpansion,enablingittofocusonqualitylocationsandadjustitsofferingasitgrows.IttookAldi40yearstoreach1,600storesintheUS.Forthesereasons,ourestimatesaboveassumefewerthan100storeopeningsperyear.

PotentialTailwindsMeanwhile,weseethreepossibletailwindsthatcoulddriveLidl’sgrowth:

Consumerinterestinhealthyliving:Groceryretailersandanalystswidelyrecognizethatthereisatrendtowardhealthierliving,includingincreaseddemandformorenaturalproductsandfreshproduce.Butthisdoesnotmeanshoppershavelimitlessbudgetstospendonthesekindsofproducts.Reflectingthis,WholeFoodsMarkethasunderperformed,whileWalmarthasbolstereditsorganicranges.IfLidlusesitsadditionalstorespacetooffersubstantialfreshfoodranges,asweexpectitwill,theretailercouldbewellplacedtopickupshopperslookingforfreshandnaturalfoodsonabudget.

Source:Walmart.com

Thefrugalityofmillennialshoppers:Millennials—typicallycharacterizedasthosebornbetween1980and2000—areenteringtheirpeakearningandspendingyears.Andthisgenerationshowssignificantpricesensitivityingrocery,whichwenotedinapreviousreport,HowMillennialsDisruptIndustries:MillennialsandGrocery.IfLidlgetsitsmarketingright,itmaybeabletomopupsomeoftheseshoppers.

Lidl’sUSstoresareadeparturefromitsoperatingmodelintermsofsize.

IfLidlgetsitsmarketingright,itmaybeabletomopupsomemillennialshoppers.

https://fungglobalretailtech.com/research/millennials-and-grocery-2/

https://fungglobalretailtech.com/research/millennials-and-grocery-2/

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Incrementalshiftsawayfromsuperstoreshopping:Asmoreandmorenongrocerypurchasesshiftonline,andasconsumers’expectationsofconvenienceandimmediacyinfoodshoppingincrease,thereappeartobefewerreasonsforshopperstovisitlargesuperstoresforgrocerypurchases.Lidlcouldbenefitfromanyongoingshifttosmallerstoreformatsthatallowconsumerstoshopmorequickly.

3. WhichIncumbentRetailersLooktoBeMostatRisk?Toanswerthisquestion,welookedattwosetsofdata:

• First,weanalyzedourowndataonLidl’slikelyregionaloverlapwithincumbentretailers.

• Second,welookedatconsumersurveydatafromProsperInsights&AnalyticsonwhoshopsatAldiintheUS,asunderstandingwhoshopsatAldiisonewaytounderstandwhoislikelytoshopatLidl,giventhesimilarityofformats.

RegionalOverlapBelow,wepresenttwotablesthatlookatselectedgroceryretailers’overlapwithintheeightstatesinwhichLidlapparentlyplanstoopenstores.Thefirsttableshowsthepercentageofselectedretailers’storesthatfallwithintheeightstates.ThisgivesanindicationoftheexposureeachretailermayhavetonewcompetitionfromLidl,althoughthedegreeofexposurewilldependontheproximityofstoreswithineachstate.Thesecondtableprovidesstorenumbersinabsolutetermsforthesameeightstates.Thisshowstheextentofpotentialoverlapintermsofabsolutescale.

ThedatashowthatWeisMarketsandInglesMarketshave,byfar,thegreatestrelativeexposuretotheeightstatesinwhichLidlishiring.

Figure2.SelectedUSRetailers:ProportionofTotalStoresLocatedintheEightStatesinwhichLidlIsHiring(%)

WeisMarkets

InglesMarkets

TheFreshMarket Walmart Sam’sClub Kroger

Safeway/Albertsons*

Delaware 1.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2

Georgia 0.0 35.3 8.5 4.1 3.6 6.2 0.0

Maryland 23.5 0.0 2.3 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.9

NewJersey 2.5 0.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0

NorthCarolina 0.0 34.8 12.4 4.2 3.6 5.8 0.0

SouthCarolina 0.0 17.9 4.5 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.0

Pennsylvania 60.3 0.0 2.8 3.0 3.6 0.0 0.0

Virginia 6.4 1.0 9.0 2.9 2.6 4.0 0.9

TotalExposure 94.2 89.0 41.8 19.0 18.9 18.3 2.0

DataareasofApril2017,exceptforInglesMarkets,whichareasofSeptember2016;Kroger,whichareasofJanuary2017;andWalmartandSam’sClub,whichareasofFebruary2017.*BasedontotalAlbertsonsstoresSource:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

WeisMarketsandInglesMarketshave,byfar,thegreatestexposuretotheeightstatesinwhichLidlishiring.

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Inabsoluteterms,WalmartandKrogerhavethegreatestnumberofstoresintheseeightstates.

Figure3.SelectedUSRetailers:TotalNumberofStoresLocatedintheEightStatesinwhichLidlIsHiring

InglesMarkets

WeisMarkets

TheFreshMarket Walmart Sam’sClub Kroger

Safeway/Albertsons

Delaware 0 3 1 10 1 2 4

Georgia 71 0 15 191 24 174 0

Maryland 0 48 4 47 12 15 20

NewJersey 0 5 3 62 10 11 0

NorthCarolina 70 0 22 194 24 162 0

SouthCarolina 36 0 8 108 13 36 0

Pennsylvania 0 123 5 138 24 0 0

Virginia 2 13 16 135 17 111 20

TotaloftheAbove 179 192 74 885 125 511 44

TotalUSStores 201 204 177 4,672 660 2,796 2,200

Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Wedonothaverobuststate-leveldataforAholdDelhaizebanners.TheseincludeFoodLion,GiantCarlisle,GiantLandoverandMartin’sFoodMarkets,whicharevariouslypresentintheeightstates,withtheexceptionofNewJersey,andStop&Shop,whichispresentinonlyoneoftheeightlistedstates,NewJersey.

UnderstandingAldiShopperstoUnderstandLidlShoppersWethinkonewaytounderstandwhowillshopatLidlistolookatwhoshopsatAldiintheUS,giventhesimilarityofthecompaniesandtheircomparablefocusoneasternstates.Forthis,weturntoconsumersurveydatafromourresearchpartner,ProsperInsights&Analytics.Prosper’ssurveyaskedconsumerswheretheyhadshoppedinthepast90days,andthedataenableustoisolateatwhichotherstoresthosewhoidentifyasloyalshoppersataparticularretaileralsoshop.OnecaveattothesedataisthatifashopperhasswitchedtoshoppingonlyatAldi,theywillnolongerregisterasashopperoftherivalstoreslistedbelow.

OfthegrocerystorestrackedbyProsper,MeijerseesthegreatestoverlapincustomerbasewithAldi,with30%ofMeijershoppershavingalsoshoppedatAldiinthe90dayspriortobeingsurveyed.However,MeijerispresentinIllinois,Indiana,Kentucky,Michigan,OhioandWisconsin—andLidldoesnotcurrentlyappeartoberecruitingstaffinthosestates.

Afterdollarstores,Krogerseesthenext-biggestcustomeroverlapwithAldi.Aswenotedabove,KrogerseessignificantgeographicaloverlapinthosestateswhereLidllookstobeopeningstores.

Afterdollarstores,Krogerseesthenext-biggestcustomeroverlapwithAldi.

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Figure4.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofRespondentsWhoHaveShoppedatAldiinthePast90Days,byTypeofShopper,August2016

Aretailer’sshoppersaredefinedasrespondentswhorankedthatretailerastheonetheyshopatmostoftenforanycategorywithinthesurvey.Base:6,915respondentsaged18+Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Lowpricesandsmallerstoreformatsmayappeartoresonatewithmillennials,butProsper’ssurveydatashowthatthisagegroupsofarunderindexesintermsofshoppingatAldi:instead,shoppingatAlditendstoincreasewithage.WethinkthisrepresentsanopportunityforLidltomarketitselftomillennialswhoareprice-conscious,butdemandqualityfreshfoods.

Figure5.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofRespondentsWhoHaveShoppedatAldiinthePast90Days,byAgeGroup,August2016

Base:6,915respondentsaged18+Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

ThetendencytoshopatAldipeaksnotamongthelowest-incomehouseholds,butamongthosehouseholdsinthemiddlebracket,withincomesof$35,000–$74,999.

3.5%

10.4%

13.9%

16.0%

17.4%

20.0%

23.7%

25.7%

30.4%

18.7%

Safeway

Costco

GiantLandover

GiantCarlisle

Walmart(Groceries)

Sam’sClub

Kroger(Groceries)

DollarStores

Meijer

Overall

18.7%16.4%

19.2%20.6%

AllAdults Millennials GenX BabyBoomers

ThetendencytoshopatAldipeaksamongthoseinthemiddlebracket,withincomesof$35,000–$74,999.

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Figure6.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofRespondentsWhoHaveShoppedatAldiinthePast90Days,byHouseholdIncome,August2016

Base:6,915respondentsaged18+Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Whilewethinkthesedataareagoodballparkguide,Lidl’scustomerbasewilllargelydependonitsfinalUSpropositionandhowitusestheextraspaceinitsstores.

4. WhatWillLidl’sUSOfferingLookLike?OuranalysishasprovidedsomeindicationsofwhatLidl’sUSofferingwilllooklikeandhowtheretailerwillusetheextraspaceinitsUSstores.

Morefreshfoods:WeexpectLidl’sUSstorestoincludeenhancedfreshfoodsections,withfreshbakerydepartmentsandsubstantialfreshproducedepartments.Inthisrespect,Lidl’sstoresmayresembleacombinationofAldiandTraderJoe’s.Wehaveseenagreaterfocusonfreshfoodsinothernontraditionaldiscountmarkets,suchastheUK.Ina2013interviewwithTheGrocer,LidlUK’sthen-ManagingDirectorRonnyGottschlichsaidfreshfoodaccountedfor40%ofthecompany’sUKsalesandthathecouldenvisagethatrisingto50%.

Generalmerchandise:Lidl’sEuropeanstoresincludefast-changingselectionsofnongroceryranges,fromDIYgoodstoapparel.InhisinterviewwithTheWashingtonPost,ProctorconfirmedthatLidl’sUSstoreswouldeachincludea“largesection”dedicatedtotheseranges.

US-producedproducts:WeexpectLidltohighlighttheUSprovenanceoffreshfoodssuchasmeat,fruitandvegetablesinabidtoreassureshoppersaboutquality.FocusingondomesticsourcinghasbeenLidl’sstrategyintheUK.Ina2014interview,Gottschlichsaidthatmorethan95%oftheUKchain’sfreshmeatand60%ofallthechain’sproductsweresourcedwithintheUK.ByMarch2017,thecompany’sUKwebsitewasboastingthat70%ofitsproductsweresourcedwithintheUK.

Big-namebrands:InEurope,Lidlhasledthechargeamongmajordiscounterstostockbig-namebrands,butitsrangeofbrandeditemsisstillhighlylimited.IntheUKin2013,GottschlichnotedthatLidlstocked300“keybrands,”whichrepresented19%ofLidlUK’sestimated1,600SKUs.Wecouldseeagreaternumberofthird-partybrandsinLidl’sUSstores,

18.7% 19.2%21.6%

15.5%

Overall HouseholdIncomeLessthan$35,000

HouseholdIncome$35,000to$74,999

HouseholdIncome$75,000+

WeexpectLidl’sUSstorestoincludeenhancedfreshfoodsections,withfreshbakerydepartmentsandsubstantialfreshproducedepartments.

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althoughwedonotyetknowwhichmajorgrocerybrandswillappearonitsAmericanshelves.

WethinkLidlmaynotusetheextraspaceinitsUSstorestosubstantiallyboostthenumberofSKUsitoffersinpackagedgoods.Lidlisalimited-linediscounterthatreliesoneconomiessuchasnarrowchoiceandastrongprivate-labelfocustoofferlowprices.CoupledwiththefactthatLidlwilllikelynothavebenefitsofscaleintheUSmarketforsometime,theretailerlookstohavelimitedopportunitytooffersubstantiallyhigher-than-averageproductcountsinprivate-labelpackagedgoods.Inotherwords,agreaternumberofpackagedproductssourcedexclusivelyfortheUSmarketwouldhaveadilutiveeffectonLidlUS’salreadyprecariouseconomiesofscale.

Intermsofphysicalstoreformats,ProctornotedintheWashingtonPostinterviewthatthefirststoreswillincludejustsixaislesandsomefreestandingislandsforfreshfoods.Wethinkself-checkoutsarelikelytobeemployedinthecompany’sUSstorestodriveupin-storeproductivityandmitigatethecostinvestmentsinvolvedinoperatingbiggerstores.

KeyTakeawaysThisreporthasfocusedonfourkeyquestionsregardingLidl’sentryintotheUSmarket,andwehaveansweredthemasbestwecan,giventhelimitedinformationonthecompany’sUSoperationsinthepublicdomain.

InEurope,Lidlhasbeenamongthemostflexibleoftheharddiscounters,bringinginbrands,morefreshfoodsandpremiumownlabels,anduppingstoresizesandproductcountsasaresult.ThisflexingofitsformathashelpedLidlgrowrapidlyinnontraditionalmarketssuchastheUK,whichbodeswellforitsentryintotheUSmarket.

However,uncertaintiesremain:HowwillLidlusetheextraspaceinitsAmericanstores?Arethequalityofitslocationsbeingsacrificedinthepursuitofgrowth?AndwillitfacechallengesintakingtheleapfromsmallEuropeanstorestomuchlargerformatsintheUS?Wedonotyethavealltheanswers,butwewillupdateourcoverageaswelearnmore.

OfferingagreaternumberofpackagedproductssourcedexclusivelyfortheUSmarketwouldhaveadilutiveeffectonLidlUS’salreadyprecariouseconomiesofscale.

Lidl’sflexingofitsformathashelpeditgrowrapidlyinnontraditionalmarketssuchastheUK,whichbodeswellforitsentryintotheUSmarket.

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DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

KatieMarshallResearchAssistant

HongKong:8thFloor,LiFungTower888CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,9thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017

FungGlobalRetailTech.com

pdf lidl us update: answers to four key questions · lidl will open its first us stores in the...

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