peak oil implications trauger final

8/7/2019 Peak Oil Implications Trauger FINAL

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Peak Oil: Implications forPeak Oil: Implications for

Sustainable Natural ResourcesSustainable Natural ResourcesManagementManagement

David L. TraugerDavid L. Trauger

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

J. Edward GatesJ. Edward GatesUniversity of Maryland Center for EnvironmentalUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental

ScienceScience

USDA Forest Service Sustainable OperationsUSDA Forest Service Sustainable OperationsSummitSummit

November 18November 18--20, 200820, 2008


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IntroductionIntroduction

Contemporary natural resources managementContemporary natural resources managementis highly dependent on cheap, abundantis highly dependent on cheap, abundantenergyenergy

A critical evaluation of implications of Peak OilA critical evaluation of implications of Peak Oilis needed in order to anticipate and plan for ais needed in order to anticipate and plan for arange of futuresrange of futures

We will face great challenges as well asWe will face great challenges as well asopportunities in different biogeographicopportunities in different biogeographicregions as we adjust to new realities duringregions as we adjust to new realities duringthe coming decadesthe coming decades


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Global Peak OilGlobal Peak Oil


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Energy governs how we do our jobsEnergy governs how we do our jobs

Powering facilities, computers, generators,Powering facilities, computers, generators,or motor vehiclesor motor vehicles

Consuming food energy hiking to the nextConsuming food energy hiking to the nextobservation or sampling pointobservation or sampling point

Manufacturing some useful field orManufacturing some useful field orlaboratory device or toollaboratory device or tool

Much of what we describe here willMuch of what we describe here will

be influenced by future economicbe influenced by future economicconditions and whether we can avoidconditions and whether we can avoidcollapsecollapse


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Management ImplicationsManagement Implications

of Peak Oilof Peak Oil

Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets

Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations

Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance

Impacts on PersonnelImpacts on Personnel


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Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets

Expensive, increasingly scarce oilExpensive, increasingly scarce oil

will not only affect our ability to drivewill not only affect our ability to drive

our cars and trucks, butour cars and trucks, but

Costs of everything will go upCosts of everything will go up

dramaticallydramatically

Effects will ripple throughout our national economyEffects will ripple throughout our national economy

Significantly impact institutional and agencySignificantly impact institutional and agency

budgetsbudgets


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Major Budgetary ImplicationsMajor Budgetary Implications

Greater justification of expenditures and aGreater justification of expenditures and a

sharper focus on setting program prioritiessharper focus on setting program priorities

Mandated high efficiency in bothMandated high efficiency in bothoperations and equipmentoperations and equipment

Curtailment or elimination of obsolete orCurtailment or elimination of obsolete or

inefficient programs or operationsinefficient programs or operations

Sharing of resources and responsibilitiesSharing of resources and responsibilities

among personnel and different agenciesamong personnel and different agencies


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Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations

Operations may be focused withinOperations may be focused withinautonomous administrative regionsautonomous administrative regions

-- Movement of personnel around theMovement of personnel around the

country or state or province may be too costlycountry or state or province may be too costly

Greater reliance on electronicGreater reliance on electroniccommunications using renewablecommunications using renewable

energy sourcesenergy sources

-- Brownouts and blackouts may affect theBrownouts and blackouts may affect the

electrical grids dependabilityelectrical grids dependability


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Forests, Refuges, Parks, andForests, Refuges, Parks, and

other Public Landsother Public Lands

Lack of disposable income may meanLack of disposable income may meanfewer visitations by the publicfewer visitations by the public Declines in ecotourism leading to economicDeclines in ecotourism leading to economic

nonviabilitynonviability

Pressure to privatize or open public landsPressure to privatize or open public lands

for needed revenues to operatefor needed revenues to operate Directly for income to support operationsDirectly for income to support operations

Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.


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Species ManagementSpecies Management

Recreational hunting, fishing, and camping likelyRecreational hunting, fishing, and camping likelywill declinewill decline

Increase in poaching and timber theft for subsistenceIncrease in poaching and timber theft for subsistence

Rare, threatened, and endangered speciesRare, threatened, and endangered species Increase in extirpation and extinctionIncrease in extirpation and extinction

Greater emphasis on law enforcementGreater emphasis on law enforcement

Exotic and invasive speciesExotic and invasive species Control may be too expensiveControl may be too expensive

Habitat and landscape restorationHabitat and landscape restoration Lets work with nature!Lets work with nature!


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Inventories, Monitoring, andInventories, Monitoring, and

ResearchResearch Research activitiesResearch activities

Greatly reduced capabilityGreatly reduced capability

Focus on rigorous and integrated adaptiveFocus on rigorous and integrated adaptiveresource managementresource management

Activities dependent on extensive use ofActivities dependent on extensive use of

manned, motorized craftmanned, motorized craft Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols,Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols,Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys,Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys,

Big Game SurveysBig Game Surveys


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Surveys using volunteersSurveys using volunteers

Breeding Bird Survey, etc., may becomeBreeding Bird Survey, etc., may become

difficult to maintaindifficult to maintain

Remotely accessed or automatedRemotely accessed or automated

monitoring systemsmonitoring systems

Expansion of their applicationExpansion of their application Role in law enforcementRole in law enforcement


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Increased costs will mean that thereIncreased costs will mean that there

will be even fewer incentives to travelwill be even fewer incentives to travel

long distances to meetings,long distances to meetings,particularly via jet planesparticularly via jet planes

InternationalInternational

NationalNational RegionalRegional

StateState

TravelTravel


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Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance

Reduction of many types ofReduction of many types of

maintenance and repairmaintenance and repair

Road maintenance and other access pointsRoad maintenance and other access points

NonNon--essential infrastructure, e.g., visitoressential infrastructure, e.g., visitor

servicesservices

Recovery from catastrophic eventsRecovery from catastrophic eventswill be problematicwill be problematic

Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,

hurricanes, etc.hurricanes, etc.


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Maintaining levees, dikes, and otherMaintaining levees, dikes, and other

impoundments will be expensiveimpoundments will be expensive

-- Especially in coastal areas where seaEspecially in coastal areas where sea

level rise is predictedlevel rise is predicted

Retrofit, Repair, and Recycling willRetrofit, Repair, and Recycling will

be new watchwordsbe new watchwords


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Sustainable approaches will be anSustainable approaches will be an

overriding goaloverriding goal

Demand for personnel with particularDemand for personnel with particular

skillsskills

Law enforcement

Law enforcement

Adaptive resource managementAdaptive resource management

Remote sensing and GISRemote sensing and GIS

Information technology and electronicInformation technology and electronic

communicationcommunication Equipment maintenance and repairEquipment maintenance and repair

Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!


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UniversitiesUniversities declining budgets, decliningdeclining budgets, decliningstudent enrollments, declining researchstudent enrollments, declining researchdollars, and downsizing facultydollars, and downsizing faculty

Fewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, andFewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, andother conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobsother conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobs

Emphasis on training fewer postEmphasis on training fewer post--graduatesgraduates

Major universities will undergo contraction in many disciplinesMajor universities will undergo contraction in many disciplines

Smaller colleges and universities nearer to home maySmaller colleges and universities nearer to home mayweather the storm betterweather the storm better

Approaches to education and training willApproaches to education and training willchange and evolvechange and evolve

Alternatives to attending universityAlternatives to attending university Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs,Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs,

web, interactive video networkweb, interactive video network

Scattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized trainingScattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized trainingto a wider audienceto a wider audience


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OpportunitiesOpportunities Will we be able to react quickly enough?Will we be able to react quickly enough?

Duplication and waste will be less toleratedDuplication and waste will be less tolerateddue to high costs and focus ondue to high costs and focus onsustainabilitysustainability

Decision making will be streamlined andDecision making will be streamlined andentrusted to those on the front linesentrusted to those on the front lines Innovative, logical, multiInnovative, logical, multi--taskes, risk takerstaskes, risk takers

Initiative and success rewardedInitiative and success rewarded

Employees will be challenged by a dynamicEmployees will be challenged by a dynamicwork environmentwork environment Novel situations and conditionsNovel situations and conditions

Need for adaptability and innovation

Need for adaptability and innovation


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Can We be Proactive?Can We be Proactive?

Most budget adjustments and expendituresMost budget adjustments and expenditures

must be made early while energy is stillmust be made early while energy is still

relatively cheap and abundant and beforerelatively cheap and abundant and before

other costs risethe future is NOW!other costs risethe future is NOW!

However, could be a difficult task given flatHowever, could be a difficult task given flat

or declining budgets and inflationaryor declining budgets and inflationary

pressurespressures

Doing more with less will surely take on newDoing more with less will surely take on new

meaning for allmeaning for all


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Efficiency andConservationEfficiency andConservation

History shows that savings due toincreased fuel-efficiency can easily bewiped out by increased population(number of drivers) and energy use

(travel)

Not a strategy to enable business asusual, but one to effect a net reduction inoil consumption

Must be coupled with the eventualelimination of greenhouse gas emissionsfrom the burning of fossil fuels


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Solar and WindSolar and Wind

RetrofittingRetrofitting

existing facilitiesexisting facilities

and operating fieldand operating field

equipmentequipment Example: EasternExample: Eastern

Neck NationalNeck National

Wildlife Refuge onWildlife Refuge on

Marylands upperMarylands upperEastern ShoreEastern Shore


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Prediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation ofPrediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation of

natural resources agencies across the U.S.natural resources agencies across the U.S.Government in the next 5 years.Government in the next 5 years.

Flash: Creation of aFlash: Creation of a Earth Systems Science AgencyEarth Systems Science Agency

proposed byproposed by merging National Oceanic andmerging National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. GeologicalAtmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological

Survey.Survey.

Question: Can the USDAForest Service, U. S. FishQuestion: Can the USDAForest Service, U. S. Fish

and Wildlife Service, Bureau ofLand Management,and Wildlife Service, Bureau ofLand Management,

and National Park Service be far behind? Hummmand National Park Service be far behind? Hummm

Natural Resources Management AgencyNatural Resources Management Agencyhas a certainhas a certain

ring to it!ring to it!


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ConclusionsConclusions

Peak Oil will force drastic changes inPeak Oil will force drastic changes innatural resource management programsnatural resource management programsand prioritiesand priorities

Major challenge to protect and manage theMajor challenge to protect and manage theintegrity of our forests and other bioticintegrity of our forests and other bioticsystemssystems

Greater emphasis onGreater emphasis on REALREAL sustainablesustainable

resource management strategiesresource management strategies

Whether we leave a natural heritage forWhether we leave a natural heritage forour descendents and future generationsour descendents and future generationswill depend on the pathway we take now!will depend on the pathway we take now!

peak oil implications trauger final

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