Peak Car: implications for policy

David Metz

Centre for Transport Studies

University College London

Policy context of Smarter Travel

• Promote economic growth• Accommodate population growth• Enhance sustainability• Foster wellbeing • What kind of a place do we want to be?• What options do we have?

– ‘Big City’– ‘Smaller City’– Others

London population growth

Car traffic and use in London

Peak Car in the City

• Key policies– No additional road capacity; control parking– Invest in rail, attractive for travel to work

• London thrives while car use declines• Peak Car marks transition from travel demand

driven by income to dominance of demography• Not just London – Manchester, Birmingham

Birminghaminbound trips per day to city centre 0730-0930

Manchesterinbound trips per day to city centre 0730-0930

Higher urban population densities

• Agglomeration economics– increased productivity through larger pool of skills – access to specialised goods, services, infrastructure– exchange and diffusion of knowledge, ideas [role of

universities]

• Cultural agglomeration• More social interaction• More sustainable

The problem of the smaller city

• Public transport limited, rail expensive• Competing with nearby cities for car-based retail

customers• High level of car dependence, detrimental to

sense of place• Better accommodate cars?• Discourage cars to promote agglomeration?• What alternatives to the car for work journeys?

Options for smaller cities

• BRT – Latin America• Cycling – Netherlands, Denmark• Trams – France• Buses - Brighton

• Age-friendly Cities • Inclusive Design• People-friendly cities: people management, not

traffic management

Conclusions

• Successful Big Cities have growing populations and declining car use

• Rail and BRT are attractive alternatives to car on congested roads for work journeys

• Demographic factors of increasing importance: population growth, increasing longevity

• Need better understanding of possible solutions for smaller cities