peak oil – myth or menace? chautauqua course university of dayton may 24 – 26, 2007 dr. robert...
TRANSCRIPT
Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?
Chautauqua CourseUniversity of DaytonMay 24 – 26, 2007
Dr. Robert Brecha, Dr. Shuang-Ye Wu, Dr. James Swaney
Some Themes for the Course
• Natural resources are finite– Exponential growth is limited
• Data are poor
• Economics vs. Geology
• Energy infrastructure is large
• Anthropogenic climate change is real
• Global societal consequences of finite resources are important
M. King Hubbert
1956 Prediction
So – How’d he do?US 48 Oil Production
0
1000
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6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1860 1910 1960 2010 2060
Th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls p
er d
ay
And with Alaska Added?
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500
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3500
4000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Mil
lio
n b
arr
els
pe
r y
ea
r
US Production Gaussian
OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90019
80
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Gb
bl
rese
rves
UAE
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006)
In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.
EIA – May 2007
North Sea production is projected to decline more rapidlyin the IEO2007 reference case than was projected inIEO2006. Production from Norway, OECD Europe’slargest producer, appears to have peaked at about 3.4million barrels per day in 2001, and it is projected to continuedeclining to about 1.4 million barrels per day in2030 as the larger and older fields mature. Productionfrom the United Kingdom, which peaked in 1999 at 3.0million barrels per day, is projected to fall to 0.5 millionbarrels per day in 2030.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
Saudi Arabia production
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
De
c-99
De
c-00
De
c-01
De
c-02
De
c-03
De
c-04
De
c-05
De
c-06
De
c-07
Month
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
bp
d)
Stuart Staniford, www.theoildrum.com
US Anthracite Production
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20
40
60
80
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120
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Mil
lio
n t
on
s/y
ea
r
World Energy Use
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal, wind solar, etc.
RE
Total~400 Quadrillion Btu
US Energy Use
Total US Energy Use (Quads)
32.6
17.6
21.1
16.2
0.25
2.2
1.2
0.90.6
26.3
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
Transportation Lightvehicles
Med./hvytrucks
Air
(Water, pipeline, rail, buses)
~2/3 of oil use is transportation
Automobiles
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
10
9 ga
llon
s o
f g
as
pe
r y
ea
r
Business as Usual Hybrid Intensive
One-time 10% Cut Drive 2% Less per Year
Cumulative Savings Strategies
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50
100
150
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300
350
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450
500
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Ga
so
line
Sa
vin
gs
(1
09 G
al.)
Hybrid Intensive Drive 2% Less per Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
2001$ o
r Q
uad
0
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300
Mil
lio
n B
tu/p
ers
on
/year
Oil price (2001$)
Petroleum & NG consumption (Quad)
Per capita energy consumption (MMBtu/year)
Food Production – More Efficient?
1
10
100
1000
10000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Year
Eo
utp
ut/E
inp
ut
US 20th century (fossil) Netherlands 20th century US 19th century (animal)
Netherlands England Rome
World per capita cereal production
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.39
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
To
nn
es
/pe
rso
n
Energy Use and HDI
y = 0.1003Ln(x) + 0.3384
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
Energy use per capita (GJ/year)
HD
I
Chad
Qatar
Europe, U.S.
Botswana
Mexico
Argentina
Saudi Arabia
South Africa