peaking world resources and popn

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The world in 2050

A review of past, present and projected statistics of global resources, food and population up to

2050.

For nation shall rise against nation . . . and there shall be famines and troubles; these are the

beginnings of sorrows. Mark 13:8

Read more:http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,911503,00.html#ixzz0orRB0ZbL

http://www.worldometers.info/
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,911503,00.html#ixzz0orRB0ZbLhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,911503,00.html#ixzz0orRB0ZbLhttp://www.worldometers.info/http://www.worldometers.info/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,911503,00.html#ixzz0orRB0ZbL


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POPULATION GROWTH

POPULATION

http://www.sciencealert.com.au/features/20101804-20862.html

Most of us have by now heard the forecast there will be 9.2 billion people in the world of 2050. But

current projections suggest human numbers will not stop there but will keep on climbing, to at

least 11.4 billion, by the mid 2060s.

Equally, the world economy will continue to grow and China, India and other advancing

economies will require more protein food.

Thus, global demand for food will more than double over the coming half-century, as we add

another 4.7 billion people. By then we will eat around 600 quadrillion calories a day, which is the

equivalent of feeding 14 billion people at todays nutritional levels.

The central issue in the human destiny in the coming half century is not climate change or the

global financial crisis.

It is whether humanity can achieve and sustain such an enormous harvest.

Today the world faces looming scarcities of just about everything necessary to produce high yields

of food water, land, nutrients, oil, technology, skills, fish and stable climates, each one playing

into and compounding the others.

So this isnt a simple problem, susceptible to technofixes or national policy changes. It is a wicked

problem.

This challenge facing the coming generation of farmers is to double the global food supply:

using half the water on far less land and with increasingly depleted soils,

without fossil fuels,
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with increasingly scarce and costly fertiliser and chemicals

under the hammer of climate change.

WATER

The first of these issues is the looming global scarcity of fresh water.

About 40 percent of the world's people live in regions that directly compete for shared water

resources. http://dieoff.org/page57.htm (1995)

By 2050, 7-8 billion people will inhabit the worlds cities. They will use about 2800 cubic

kilometres of fresh water more than the whole of irrigation

agriculture uses worldwide today. Desalination may supply some

but for most cities, it will be cheaper and simpler to grab the

farmers water. This is already happening, around the world.

Then there is the slice of farm water that climate change is alreadystealing, whether it is rainfall over the great grainbowls,

evaporation from storages, shrinking rivers and groundwater or the

loss of meltwater from mountain regions. The Himalayan glaciers are disappearing the only

debate is how fast. And the North China Plain is running out of water. These two regions feed 1.7

billion people now and must feed twice that many in future. If they fail, the consequences will

affect everyone.

Worldwide, groundwater levels and rivers are dropping as they are

pumped dry. Immense waterbodies like Lake Chad (left) are

simply vanishing. Australia has emptied its vast Murray-Darling

basin. The world is becoming dotted with dried up Aral Seas, likeaquatic tombstones.

IWMI director general Colin Chartres says Current estimates

indicate that we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in 25

years time, by when the current food crisis may turn into a perpetual crisis. (IWMI)

http://dieoff.org/page57.htm(1995)

More than 99 per cent of the world's food supply comes from the land, while less than 1 per cent is

from oceans and other aquatic habitats. The continued production of an adequate food supply is

directly dependent on ample fertile land, fresh water, energy, plus the maintenance of biodiversity.As the human population grows, the requirements for these resources also grow.

At present, fertile cropland, is being lost at an alarming rate. For instance, nearly one-third of the

world's cropland (1.5 billion hectares) has been abandoned during the past 40 years because erosion

has made it unproductive.

FARM LAND

Today almost a quarter of the worlds farm land is affected by serious degradation (FAO 2008), up

from 15% two decades ago.

Though no-one has done an accurate assessment, it appears the

world may currently be losing about one per cent (50,000 sq kms)
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of its farmland annually due to a combination of degradation, urban sprawl, mining, recreation,

toxic pollution and rising sea levels.

Solving erosion losses is a long-term problem: it takes 500 years to form 25 mm of soil under

agricultural conditions.

Most replacement of eroded agricultural land is now coming from marginal and forest land. Thepressure for agricultural land accounts for 60 to 80 percent of the world's deforestation.

(http://dieoff.org/page57.htm(1995)

If weve already lost 24% and we lose around 1% a year from here on in, you can figure out for

yourself how much land our grandchildren will have left to double their food supply double their

food supply. That the world may be close to peak land is suggested by the UNEP graph at left.

In 1900 every human had 8 hectares of land to sustain them

today the number is 1.63 and falling. Put another way, between

1990 and 2005, world demand for food grew 15 times faster thanthe area of land being farmed.

By 2050 the total area of farm land buried under cities may exceed

the total landmass of China, and the total area of land diverted to

recreation and other non-food activities may rival that of the United States. This is nearly all prime

farm land in river valleys and on coastal plains.

Many of these cities will have 20, 30 and even 40 million

inhabitants yet little or no internal food production

capacity. They will be in huge jeopardy from any

disruption to food supplies.

CEREAL CROPS

The International Food Policy Research Institute has

warned of a potential 30% drop in irrigated wheat production in Asia and 15% in rice, due to

climate factors. The World Bank fears African productivity could halve and Indias drop by as much

as 30 per cent, unless urgent steps are taken.

There has been almost no real increase in funding of the international ag science effort since the

1970s although the human population has doubled.

The effects of all this are evident in the declining growth in world

crop yields (left). The gains are now below 1 per cent a year - less

than half what is needed to keep us fed.

Generally speaking, it takes around 20 years for a piece of

research to be completed, turned into technology or advice,

commercialised and adopted by millions of farmers worldwide.

Often far longer.

FARMLAND NUTRIENTS

Our resources of mineral nutrients are starting to fail. When Canadian Patrick Dery applied

Hubberts peak theorem to phosphorus (below) he found, to his dismay, we had passed it in 1989.
http://dieoff.org/page57.htmhttp://dieoff.org/page57.htmhttp://dieoff.org/page57.htm


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According to the International Energy Agency peak oil and gas are due in the coming decade. These

spell scarcity and soaring prices in the primary nutrients N, P and K that sustain all advanced

farming systems worldwide.

FOOD WASTE

Then theres waste. In developed countries we throw away from a third to half of all food produced,in developing countries we lose similar amounts post-harvest. All told, the Stockholm Institute

(below) calculates we waste 2600 out of every 4600 kilocalories of food harvested.

Put another way, half the achievements of world agricultural

scientists and farmers of the past 50 years are going to landfill.

While a billion starve, we waste food enough to feed 3 billion.

At the other end of this equation we are ruining our rivers, lakes,seas and oceans in ways that prevent our getting more food from

them. Each year we pump around 150 million tonnes more nitrogen and 9 million tonnes more

phosphorus into the biosphere than the earths natural systems did before humans appeared: we

have utterly modified the planets nutrient cycle, more radically even than the atmosphere or fresh

water cycle. That we may double our release of nutrients to the environment as we seek to redouble

food output is alarming. According to Nature this is one of the safe planetary boundaries the human

race has already crossed.

FISH and MEAT

Per capita fish catch has not increased even though the size and speed of fishing vessels hasimproved. On the contrary, per capita fish production is lower than ever before because greater

efficiency led to overfishing. All of the world's fishing grounds are facing overfishing problems.

Lying in wait for us is a marine timebomb. 29 per cent of world fisheries are in a state of collapse

according to Canadian scientist Boris Worm and colleagues (2007). The majority could be gone by

the 2040s they warn. Plagues of jellyfish in the worlds oceans signal the impact of overfishing and

nutrient pollution, while carbon emissions are turning them acidic, imperilling the entire marine

food chain.

FAO (right, 2008) says the maximum wild capture fishery

potential from the worlds oceans has probably been reached and

the same applies to freshwater.

If we cannot double fish production as food demand doubles, then

we will have to get the additional 100 million tonnes of meat from

land animals. This will require a billion tonnes more grain and

1000 cubic kms of extra fresh water.

FAOs projected increase in world meat demand by 2050 is 185 million tonnes. Add this to the fish

deficit and we would need to discover three more North Americas to grow sufficient grain to feed

all these animals. This gives some impression of the scale of the challenge of meeting global proteindemand by the mid-century.


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SUSTAINABILITY

Ecological overshoot is the term used by the Global Footprint Network to describe how humanity

now withdraws more resources from the planet than it is able to replace in a year. The GFN

estimates we consume the total productivity of 1.3 Earths in food, water, energy and other resources

(below). If the trend continues, they say, we will be using 2 planets worth of production by 2050.If the GFN is even partly correct, then todays diet and agricultural

systems are not sustainable in the longer term.

We must reinvent them.

CONSEQUENCES - WARS

The UK Ministry of Defence (which developed this threat map) Americas CIA, the US Center forStrategic and International Studies and the Oslo Peace Research Institute all identify famine as a

potential trigger for conflicts and possibly even for nuclear wars.

The wars of the C21st are less likely to be global conflicts with sharply defined sides and huge

armies than a scrappy mass of failed states, rebellions, civil strife, insurgencies, terrorism and

genocides sparked by bloody competition over dwindling resources.

CONSEQUENCES - REFUGEES

Refugee and internally displaced person numbers (left) have risen

sharply in recent years.

Future famines in any significant region Africa, India, Central

Asia, China, Indonesia, Middle East or any of the megacities

will confront the world with tidal waves of tens, even hundreds of

millions of refugees.

But the 50m refugees who now flee every year are now preceded by over 200 million legal

immigrants a quarter of a billion people on the move each and every year. These are mostly

people smart enough to read the signs in their home countries and leave before disaster strikes.

Yet such vast movements are as nothing to the movements of the future.

These will dwarf the greatest migrations of history.

Thanks to the universal media, all the world now knows that safety, sustenance and a good life are

to be found elsewhere if you have the courage and the means to reach for them.

In future, even places that are physically remote may face refugee tides in the millions or tens of

millions, threatening profound change to society.

If we fail to secure the worlds food supply, governments in many countries may collapse under the

onrush of people fleeing regional sustenance disasters. Every nation will face heavier aid and tax

burdens and soaring food prices as a result.


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URANIUM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium

Peak uranium for individual nations

Eleven countries, Germany, the Czech Republic,France,DR Congo, Gabon, Bulgaria,Tajikistan,Hungary, Romania, Spain,Portugal andArgentina, have already peaked their uranium production

and exhausted their uranium resources and must rely on imports for their nuclear programs or

abandon them.[10][11] Other countries have reached their peak production of Uranium and are

currently on a decline.

Pessimistic predictions for peak uranium

All the following sources predict peak uranium:

1980 Robert Vance

1981 Michael MeacherMichael Meacher, the former environment minister of the UK 1997-2003, and UK Member of

Parliament, reports that peak uranium happened in 1981. He also predicts a major shortage of

uranium sooner than 2013 accompanied with hoarding and its value pushed up to the levels of

precious metals.[114]

2009 Rohit Ogra and Edward Moore

2034 van Leeuwen

Jan Willem Storm van Leeuwen, an independent analyst with Ceedata Consulting, contends that

supplies of the high-grade uranium ore required to fuel nuclear power generation will, at current

levels of consumption, last to about 2034.[116] Afterwards, the cost of energy to extract theuranium will exceed the price the electric power provided.

2035 Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group has calculated that, even with steep uranium prices, uranium production

will have reached its peak by 2035 and that it will only be possible to satisfy the fuel demand of

nuclear plants until then.[117]

Optimistic predictions for peak uranium

Other references claim that the supply is far more than demand. Therefore, they do not predict peak

uranium.

Pessimistic predictions of future high-grade uranium production operate on the thesis that either the

peak has already occurred in the 1980s or that a second peak may occur sometime around 2035.

Optimistic predictions claim that the supply is far more than demand and do not predict peak

uranium. Also, they do not report changes in the production rate of uranium. Peak uranium is not

aboutrunning out of uranium, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of

uranium.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DR_Congohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-EWG200612-9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-OECDredbook2003p29-10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Meacherhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-113http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Willem_Storm_van_Leeuwenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-115http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-115http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Watch_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-116http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_depletionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_depletionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DR_Congohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-EWG200612-9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-OECDredbook2003p29-10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Meacherhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-113http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Willem_Storm_van_Leeuwenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-115http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Watch_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium#cite_note-116http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_depletion


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New gas discoveries

Natural gas discoveries by decade

According to David L. Goodstein, the worldwide rate of discovery peaked around 1960 and has

been declining ever since.[4]Exxon Mobil Vice President, Harry J. Longwell places the peak of

global gas discovery around 1970 and has observed a sharp decline in natural gas discovery rates

since then.[5] The rate of discovery has fallen below the rate of consumption in 1980.[4] The gap

has been widening ever since. Declining gas discovery rates foreshadow future production decline

rates because gas production can only follow gas discoveries.

World peak gas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gas

Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)

In 2002, R.W. Bentley (p. 189) predicted a global "decline in conventional gas production from

about 2020."[30]

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that world gas production will continue to

increase through 2030.[31]
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PEAK COAL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal

The estimates for global peak coal production vary wildly. Many coal associations suggest the peak

could occur in 200 years or more, while scholarly estimates predict the peak to occur as early as

2010. Research in 2009 by the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that global coal

production could peak sometime between 2010 and 2048.[3] Global coal reserve data is generallyof poor quality and is often biased towards the high side. Collective projections generally predict

that global peak coal production may occur sometime around 2025 at 30 percent above current

production in the best case scenario, depending on future coal production rates.[4][5]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2396

Six countries (USA, Russia, India, China, Australia, South Africa) hold about 85% [5] of world coal

reserves, when this is measured in terms of energy content. According to the latest assessment by

the WEC, total world reserves at the end of 2002 stood at 479bn tons of anthracite and bituminous

coal, 272bn tons of sub-bituminous coal and 158bn tons of lignite.

According to the Energy Watch Group, global coal production can increase for 10-15 years (mainlydriven by China), but then production of anthracite and bituminous coal will peak around 2020 at a

production rate around 30% higher than at present. Lignite production is predicted to peak

somewhere between 2050 and 2060. However, as the quality of coal produced will be declining

continuously the world coal energy peak is projected to come around 2025. It is also important to

note that peak coal exports should come even earlier, as lower-energy-density coals are not worth

transporting long distances.

When we compare this with the scenarios (represented by the dashed and the solid line) from the

IEAs 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO) we get the following graph:
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World peak coal

2150 M. King Hubbert

M. King Hubbert's 1956 projections from the world production curve placed world peak coal at

2150.[17]

2025 Energy Watch Group

Coal: Resources and Future Production[18], published on April 5, 2007 by the Energy Watch

Group (EWG) found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years.[19] Reporting on

this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal will

likely come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most

energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.[20]
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PEAK WATER

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_water

There are several ways that a renewable resourcelike water becomes a finite resource: not returning

water to thehydrological cycle,saltwater intrusion,pollution and over-use. A modified Hubbert

curve applies to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced.[1]

Like peak oil, peak water is inevitable given the rate of extraction. A current argument is thatcivilisation, man's preferred way of living for the past six thousand years, is intrinsically thirsty and

large populations hoping to enjoy 'civilised' life styles explains why groundwater is being exhausted

so quickly.[7]

There is concern that the state of peak water is being approached in many areas around the world. If

present trends continue, 1.8 billion people will be living with absolutewater scarcity by 2025, and

two thirds of the world population could be subject towater stress.[5] Peak water is not about

running out of fresh water, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of the

water.

The amount of available freshwater supply is decreasing because ofclimate change, which has

caused receding glaciers, reduced stream and river flow, and shrinking lakes. Many aquifers have

been over-pumped and are not recharging quickly. Although the total fresh water supply is not used

up, much has become polluted, salted, unsuitable or otherwise unavailable fordrinking, industry

and agriculture.

Water demand

Water demand already exceeds supply in many parts of the world, and as the world population

continues to rise at an unprecedented rate, many more areas are expected to experience thisimbalance in the near future.

Agriculture represents 70% of freshwater use worldwide.[10]

Agriculture, industrialization andurbanization all serve to increase water consumption.

India

Further information: Water supply and sanitation in India

Working rice paddies

India has 20 percent of the Earth's population, but only four per cent of its water. Water tables are

dropping fast in some of India's main agricultural areas. The mighty Indus and Ganges riversare

tapped so heavily that, except in rare wet years, they no longer reach the sea. [12]

India has the largest water withdrawal out of all the countries in the world. Eighty-six per cent of

that water goes to support agriculture.[11]That heavy use is dictated in large part by what people

eat. People in India consume a lot ofrice. Rice farmers in India typically get less than half the yield

per unit area and they use 10 times more water than their counterparts in China do. Economic

development in some ways makes matters worse. As people's living standards rise, they tend to eat

more meat. But it takes tremendous quantities of water to raise animals for food. Growing a tonne

of grain requires 1,000 tonnes of water. To produce a tonne of beef takes 15,000 tonnes. To make asingle hamburger requires around 4940 liters (1,300 gallons) of water[12] A glass of orange juice

needs 850 liters (225 gallons) of fresh water to produce.[13]
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14/23

PEAK COPPER

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper

Copper demand

Total world production is about 15 million tons per year.[3] Copper demand is increasing by morethan 575,000 tons annually and accelerating.[1] Based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption,

Tom Graedel and colleagues at Yale University calculate that by 2100 global demand for copper

will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground.[4]China accounts for more than 22% of

world copper demand.[5]

For some purposes, other metals can substitute. For example, during a copper shortage in the 1970s,

aluminum wire was substituted in many applications, bringing difficulties that persisted in later

decades.[citation needed]

[edit] Copper supply

Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three

world-class copper mines being consumed annually.[1]Environmental analystLester Brown has

suggested copper might run out within 25 years based on what he considered a reasonable

extrapolation of 2% growth per year.[6]

[edit] New copper discoveries

56 new copper discoveries have been made during the past three decades.[1] World discoveries of

copper peaked in 1996.[7]

Criticism

In his bookThe Ultimate Resource 2, Julian Simon extensively criticizes the notion of "peak

resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a

persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Cohen2007-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Cohen2007-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_wirehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_neededhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_copper&action=edit&section=2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lester_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lester_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Brown-5http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_copper&action=edit&section=3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resourcehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Cohen2007-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_wirehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_neededhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_copper&action=edit&section=2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lester_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Brown-5http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_copper&action=edit&section=3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-Leonard2006-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resourcehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon


15/23

PEAK WHEAT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat

Peak wheat is the concept that agricultural production, due to its high use of water and energy

inputs[1], is subject to the same profile as oil and gas production.[2][3][4] The central tenet being

that a point is reached, the "peak", beyond which agricultural production plateaus and does not

grow any further.[5] In fact production may even go into permanent decline.

Based on current supply and demandfactors for agricultural commodities(e.g. changing diets in the

emerging economies,biofuels, declining acreage under irrigation, growing global population,

stagnant farm productivity growth), some commentators are predicting a long-term annual

production shortfall of around 2% which based on the highly inelastic demand curve for food crops

could lead to sustained price increases in excess of 10% a year - sufficient to double crop prices in 7

years.[6][7][8]

China

Further information: Peak water

Water is a necessary ingredient for food production. Two billion people face acute water shortage

this century as Himalayan glaciers melt.[12]Water shortages in China have helped lower the wheat

harvest from its peak of 123 million tons in 1997 to below 100 million tons in recent years.[13] Of

China's 617 cities, 300 are facing water shortages. In many, these shortfalls can be filled only by

diverting water from agriculture. Farmers cannot compete economically with industry for water inChina.[14] China is developing a grain deficit even with the over-pumping of its aquifers. Grain

production in China peaked in 1998 with 392 million tons. But it fell below 350 million tons in

2000, 2001, and 2002 and has been falling since. The annual deficits have been filled by drawing

down the country's extensive grain reserves and now has been forced to turn to depend on the world

grain market.[15] Some predict that China will soon become the World's largest importer of grain.

[16]

[edit] Japan, Korea and Taiwan

Further information: IndustrialisationAn interesting example of peak production is what happens to highly populous countries as they go

through industrialisation. In Japan, Korea and Taiwan, agricultural output plummeted as industrial
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculturehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commoditieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commoditieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_economieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuelshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-5http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_waterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-Brown2002-14http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-15http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_wheat&action=edit&section=2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrialisationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koreahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculturehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-0http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commoditieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_economieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuelshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-5http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_waterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-Brown2002-14http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_wheat#cite_note-15http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_wheat&action=edit&section=2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrialisationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koreahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan


16/23

output rose - a combination of the loss ofarable land and competing claims by industrial processes

on water forirrigation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arable_landhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrigationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrigationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arable_landhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrigation


17/23

SUMMARY

Solving the challenge of global food insecurity should be the paramount concern of all nations and

all people in the coming three generations. The global financial crisis is trivial in comparison. Even

climate change, for all its menacing potential, is less immediately pressing.


18/23

BEES. A parasite is devastating world bee populations and species. Australia is the last haven of

disease-free bees, but they will come our way. Already in Asia, common bees are being overrun by

bees that do not effectively pollinate.

Australia and NZ have had to supply fresh breeding bees to England to revive the bee populations.

ENERGY -

GAS

Natural gas will also peak shortly and since it helps make 97 per cent of the worlds nitrogenous

fertilizer, an N scarcity is also on the cards. Using coal to make fertiliser does not seem smart, as its

contribution to climate change is to create more drought and hence lower crop yields.


19/23

PEAK OIL

http://www.survivepeakearth.com/2010/01/preparing-for-peak-oil-peak-water-peak.html


20/23

PEAK PHOSPHORUS

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/33164


21/23

PEAK FISH

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52857


22/23

PEAK FOOD

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116809/


23/23

peaking world resources and popn

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