peninsula energy limited

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COMPANY PRESENTATION 2012 EMERGING PRODUCER

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Page 1: Peninsula Energy Limited

COMPANY PRESENTATION 2012

EMERGING PRODUCER

Page 2: Peninsula Energy Limited

Disclaimer

This presentation is provided on the basis that the Company nor its representatives make any warranty (express or implied) as to the accuracy, reliability, relevance or completeness of the material contained in the Presentation and nothing contained in the Presentation is, or may be relied upon as, a promise, representation or warranty, whether as to the past or the future. The Company hereby excludes all warranties that can be excluded by law. The Presentation contains material which is predictive in nature and may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and may differ materially from results ultimately achieved. The Presentation contains “forward-looking statements”. All statements other than those of historical facts included in the Presentation are forward-looking statements including estimates of resources. However, forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed, projected or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks include, but are not limited to, gold and other metals price volatility, currency fluctuations, increased production costs and variances in ore grade or recovery rates from those assumed in mining plans, as well as political and operational risks and governmental regulation and judicial outcomes. The Company does not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to any “forward-looking statement” to reflect events or circumstances after the date of the Presentation, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. All persons should consider seeking appropriate professional advice in reviewing the Presentation and all other information with respect to the Company and evaluating the business, financial performance and operations of the Company. Neither the provision of the Presentation nor any information contained in the Presentation or subsequently communicated to any person in connection with the Presentation is, or should be taken as, constituting the giving of investment advice to any person. Presentation does not relate to any securities which will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 nor any securities which may be offered or sold in the United States or to a US person unless registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or in a transaction exempt from registration. The Exploration and Target Potential described in this presentation is conceptual in nature, and there is insufficient information to establish whether further exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource.

2

Page 3: Peninsula Energy Limited

Company Overview

• Emerging uranium producer with established project pipeline

• Flagship project in Wyoming (Lance) and South Africa (Karoo)

Lance

• 2.2mlbs U3O8 pa ramping up over 3 years

• Low Capex - Initial development expenditure US$78m

• US$251 million NPV8%

Karoo

• Exploration potential 150mlbs U3O8

• Targeting 30mlbs U3O8 2012

• Targeting Development CY16/CY17

3

TARGETTING PRODUCTION Q4/13-Q1/14

Page 4: Peninsula Energy Limited

Business Plan

• PRODUCTION TARGET 10MLBS U308 – before 2025

• From USA, RSA and Australia

• Commence ISR production at Lance Projects, Wyoming in 2013-14

building to 2.2mlbs U3O8 pa over 3 years (plant capacity 3mlbs pa)

• Develop conventional mining and milling operation at Karoo Projects,

South Africa by 2016/17 building to 3mlbs pa

• Continue to develop the mineral potential

Wyoming: 104-163mlbs U3O8

Karoo: 100-150mlbs U3O8

• Acquire an identified third project in a third geographical location and

develop a further 3mlbs pa

4

UNDERPIN BALANCE SHEET WITH PROFIT FROM LANCE PROJECTS

Page 5: Peninsula Energy Limited

Market Valuation

Peninsula Energy indicative market valuation as a function of production

5

Company

Production

2011E

(U3O8 lbs)

Market cap Market cap

(US$/lb prod)

Pre-

Fukushima

market cap

Market cap

(US$/lb prod)

Cameco 21.7m US$8,010m 369 US$14,324m 660

Paladin 5.7m US$942m 165 US$3,677m 645

Uranium One 10.5m US$2,430m 231 US$5,704m 548

Production U3O8

(lbs pa)

Implied market cap

@ US$255/lb

Implied market cap

@ US$600/lb

2.2m US$561m US$1,320m

6.0m US$1,530m US$3,600m

10.0m US$2,550m US$6,000m

SIGNIFICANT RE-RATING UPSIDE

Page 6: Peninsula Energy Limited

Share price history

Corporate Overview

6

Shareholding Shares % holding

Pala Investments 505m 19.85%

HSBC 66m 2.62%

John (Gus) Simpson 91m 4.61%

JP Morgan

Top 20 Shareholders

53m

826m

2.12%

32.26%

Capitalisation

Shares on issue 2,510m

Share price 3.0c

Market capitalisation US$76m

Cash balance US$20m

Debt US$0

Enterprise value US$56m

STRONG SHAREHOLDER SUPPORT

Page 7: Peninsula Energy Limited

Directors and Management

7

Management

Board of Directors

Gus Simpson

Executive Chairman

Strong leadership, background in resources, corporate finance and project

management ; 25 years experience

Malcolm James

Finance Director

Chartered accountant ,strong corporate finance background and project

management ; 25 years experience

Alf Gillman

Technical Director

Highly experienced uranium geologist; 35 years experience

Warwick Grigor

Non-executive Director

Experienced mining analyst and corporate director

Michael Barton

Non-executive Director

Chartered accountant with strong background in resources and finance

Management

Glenn Black

COO, CEO South Africa

Senior management engineer mine construction and African operations; 30 years

experience

Ralph Knode

CEO Wyoming

Senior management geologist /engineer, ISR mine construction and operation

expert ; 25 years experience

Tony Allen

Chief Financial Officer

Chartered Accountant and experienced mineral production CFO

DEVELOPMENT TEAM ENGAGED

Page 8: Peninsula Energy Limited

Existing Demand Drivers

• One ton of natural uranium produces more than 40 million kilowatt-

hours of electricity

• This is equivalent to burning 16,000 tons of coal or 80,000 barrels of

oil

• Electricity generation costs

– Gas and coal costs 5.0c per Kwh

– Nuclear costs 0.7c per Kwh

• 434 operating nuclear power stations (Feb 2012) in 31 countries

• 240 research and medical isotope reactors

• 140 nuclear powered ships

• Consuming 200mlbs uranium p.a.

8 STRONG EXISTING DEMAND

Page 9: Peninsula Energy Limited

Future Uranium Demand

• Global expansion of nuclear power generation will fuel significant increase in U3O8 demand

• 61 nuclear power plants are in construction, 156 are at the approval stage and a further 450 are planned

• China, India, Eastern Europe and the Middle East expected to increase uranium consumption by 250% by 2030

9 Source : UxConsulting Q2 2012

Reactor units U3O8 demand (mlbs pa)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

North America 124 126 129 127 131 52 54 59 59 60

Western Europe 129 118 116 111 97 54 55 58 53 52

Eastern Europe 67 76 78 85 91 29 33 38 40 44

Asia & Oceania (ex

Japan) 69 101 143 182 223 23 44 67 85 108

Japan 54 43 44 42 35 23 24 26 25 22

Africa & Middle East 2 3 7 15 22 1 1 5 10 12

South America 4 6 6 8 11 2 3 3 4 7

TOTAL 441 470 523 570 617 184 213 255 276 293

Reactor Units and Market Demand Forecasts by Region

DEVELOPING NATIONS REQUIRE LOW EMISION POWER

Page 10: Peninsula Energy Limited

Uranium Supply

• Kazakhstan ISL U3O8 production spectacular growth - slowing – 2000: 5mlbs

– 2008: 18mlbs

– 2009: 36mlbs

– 2011: 44mlbs

– 2012: 44mlbs (est.)

• Megatons to Megawatts program coming to an end

– Uranium recovery from nuclear warheads

– US utilities buying 24mlbs pa

– Agreement expires at the end of 2013

• Fukushima more likely to impact supply rather than demand in long term

– 20mlbs delivery suspended due to Fukushima spot price suffering

– Trekopje 7mlbs pa(NBA), Olympic Dam add. 9mlbs pa ( SA),

Bakouma 7mlbs pa (CAR), Kintyre 6mlbs pa (WA)

– Ranger (NT Australia), Rossing (Namibia)

– Hathor (Saskatchewan), Mkuju River (Tanzania), Husab (Namibia),

– Paladin ($200m pre-payment), UAE (forward purchase multi suppliers)

– EdF taken 20 yr contract with AREVA for 60mlbs

10 DEMAND FUNDEMENTALS STRONG – SUPPLY GROWTH NEEDED

Page 11: Peninsula Energy Limited

Supply Deficit Looming

11

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

(90,000)

(60,000)

(30,000)

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net Balance (LHS) World Supply (RHS) World Requirements (RHS)

(000 lbs) (000 lbs)

Supply Deficit

Global uranium supply-demand balance

LANCE PRODUCTION COMMENCES AS SUPPLY DEFICIT INCREASES

Page 12: Peninsula Energy Limited

Uranium Price Forecast

12

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

$75

$90

$105

$120

$135

$150

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

© UxC

Historical Spot Ux U3O8 Price

Long-Term vs Spot

Composite Scenario

Historical Ux Long-Term U3O8 Price

Source: UxConsulting

LONG TERM CONTRACTS - PREMIUM OVER SPOT PRICE

Page 13: Peninsula Energy Limited

Uranium Mining in Wyoming

13

URANIUM EXTRACTION SUPPORTIVE STATE

Page 14: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Development Model

• Building a 2.2mlbs per year ISR operation

• ISR is a low cost non-disruptive method of recovering uranium as yellow cake

• Inclusive of – Ion exchange facility

– centralised resin stripping, drying and packaging plant at Ross (CPP)

– Remote ion exchange facility at Barber trucking resin to CPP

• Targeting development & production in 2013/14

• 3 stage development ramping up over 3 years

• Acquisition of other projects

• Possible expansion to permit capacity 3mlbpa

14

Central Processing Plant: Reverse Osmosis System, Brine Tanks (rear)

Central Processing Plant: Ion Exchange Vessels (left), Elution circuit (right)

PROVEN TECHNOLOGY – ISR PRODUCES 42% OF WORLD URANIUM

Page 15: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Financials

15

Financials – Steady State US$ p.a US$/lb

Gross revenue US$179m US$70.00*

Royalties and indirect taxes US$20m US$9.26

Operating costs US$28m US$12.83

Restoration and closure

costs US$7m US$2.94

Wellfield development costs US$40m US$14.21

Total operating costs US$95m US$39.24

EBITDA US$84m US$41.63

Pre-tax NPV 8% US$251m

* December 2012 base price escalated

Capex by Prod. Phase US$

Phase 1 :

Ross Production Unit

(750klbs pa)

US$56m

Phase 2 :

Kendrick Production

Unit

(750klbs pa)

US$39m

Phase 3 :

Barber Production Unit

(750klbs pa)

US$40m

ROBUST ECONOMICS

Page 16: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Exploration Potential • 13 Historic resources

• 22 roll fronts extend for a combined linear strike length of 194 miles (312km)

• Exploration potential

104-163mlbs U3O8

16 FURTHER SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE POTENTIAL

Page 17: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Rapid Resource Growth

17

3,644,099 3,813,347 3,835,486 4,014,475 3,960,000

5,587,760 6,681,340 7,500,039 10,697,540 11,130,000

15,955,169

22,454,321

30,178,789

36,783,402

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

March 2010 July 2010 January 2011 July 2011 March 2012

lbs U

3O

8

Inferred

Indicated

Measured

No. PEN holes

No. NuBeth holes

4,738

4,738

4,738

4,738

4,738

281

600

805

1,106

1,854

ONGOING EXPLORATION SUCCESS & RESOURCE CONVERSION

Page 18: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Permitting on Schedule • Deep Disposal Wells

− DDW feasibility study completed

− Licence application lodged

− Environmental and technical review completed

− Licence granted 30 March 2011

− Aquifer is deemed exempt

• NRC Source Material Licence − Technical reports completed

− Environmental reports completed

− Licence application deemed complete

− Environmental and technical review completed

− Grant of draft SML - Nov. 2012 (NRC est.)

− BLM acknowledged NRC lead

• WDEQ Permit to Mine − Technical reports completed

− Environmental reports completed

− Licence application deemed complete

− Environmental and technical review completed

− Environmental bonds lodged

− 4 week public notice period completed

− No objections after PNP

− Grant of PTM - Nov. 2012

− Air Quality Permit granted

18

PERMITTING AHEAD OF REGULATORY SCHEDULES

Page 19: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Uranium Sales

• First sale contract entered into in February 2011

– USA utility

– WAP $75.60 per lb

– 7 year contract – first delivery 2013

• Planned sales structure

– 30% to a strategic partner taking an investment in Peninsula Energy

– 40% to 3-4 utilities on long-term contracts

– 30% on the spot market

• Negotiations advancing with utilities and trading houses

• Strategic relationship: Boswell Capital

– Specialist uranium advisory group

– Ongoing role evaluating juniors for utilities

– Completed DD on PEN

19

STRATEGIC PARTNERING AND LONG TERM CONTRACTS

Page 20: Peninsula Energy Limited

Lance – Development Schedule

20 DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULES ON TRACK

2012 2013

PROJECT EVALUATION ✔ ✔ ✔

ENGINEERING / PROCUREMENT

PERMITTING

Deep Disposal Wells ✔

Permit To Mine

Source Material License (SML)

Project FUNDING

Stage 1 - $30

Stage 2 - $145m

CONSTRUCTION

Pre SML License

Post SML License

Page 21: Peninsula Energy Limited

Karoo – Geological Setting

• Sandstones of the Adelaide Subgroup (Beaufort Group)

• SW of the Karoo basin

• Extends from NE of Western Cape, across SE of Northern Cape, and into Free State

• Stretches east to Cradock in the Eastern Cape includes smaller satellite area located to the ENE of Bloemfontein

21

KNOWN URANIUM PROVINCE

Page 22: Peninsula Energy Limited

Karoo Projects

• 6 project areas (2,200 sqkm) over Permian sandstones of the Karoo Basin South Africa

• Ownership: Peninsula 74%, BEE Partners 26%

• 3 project areas contain historic resources

• The Karoo Basin is a known uranium and molybdenum mineralised province

• All sites contain outcropping to sub-cropping uranium and molybdenum anomalism

• Resource statement expected in Dec. 2012- Mar. 2013

• Feasibility work planned for 2H/2013 commencement

• Test work indicate most sites would likely be amenable to mining by combination of open pit and adit mining

22 SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES

Page 23: Peninsula Energy Limited

Karoo – Mineral Potential

23

Exploration

potential

Tonnes (m) Grade (ppm U3O8)

Contained U3O8 (mlbs)

From To From To From To

Total 72 120 1,200 1,400 93 156

Mineral Tonnes Grade (ppm eU3O8) Contained eU3O8

(mlbs)

Site 22 1,480 2.8

Site 45 700 4.3

Site 29 1,050 0.7

TARGETTING 93-156 MLBS U308

Page 24: Peninsula Energy Limited

Karoo – Conceptual Development Model

• Multiple open-pits;

with central

processing facility at

Site 29

• All sites within road-

hauling distance

• Planning

development in

2016/2017

• Continue to delineate

> 120mlbs of

uranium

mineralisation

24

CONVENTIONAL MINING

Page 25: Peninsula Energy Limited

Investment Analysis

• The uranium sector is at a historic low

• Increased demand and tightening supply will lift the

whole uranium sector

• Uranium producers attract a significant premium

• Peninsula is a near term uranium producer with high

liquidity, high margins and strong financial support

• The Company has a low risk, clear path to production

and the ability to expand this from its existing projects

• This information is not yet recognised by the market

30

MAJOR SECTOR AND COMPANY RE-RATING COMING