people & data | weigend.com

Veränderungen in einer vernetzen Welt –die METRO Group im neuen Mitmach-Web

Andreas Weigend

2. August 2007 | Düsseldorf

2© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 What is Web 2.0?

•Tim O’Reilly (2005):•Web 2.0 is a set of economic, social, and technology trends that collectively form the basis for the next generation of the Internet—a more mature, distinctive medium characterized by user participation, openness, and network effects.

Agen

cy o

f the

Year

: Th

e Co

nsum

er (A

dver

tisin

g Ag

e 20

07.0

1)

年代理商：消费者广告时代

6© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0

Community

Interaction

Participation

Experimentation

Data

Web 2.0

The five levels

Web 1.0

7© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Web1.0 vs Web2.0

Web1.0 与 Web2.0 •Web 1.0 : E-business Web 1.0 ：电子商务 about pages, commerce

关于网页和商业Data gathering数据搜集Experimentation试验

about impressions关于印象

•Web 2.0: Me-BusinessWeb 2.0 ：我的商务 about people, individuals

关于人和个人Participation, Contribution 参与，贡献Interaction 互动Group, Community, Collaboration 团体，社区，协作 Crowdsourcing more than social

networks 不同于社会网络的扎堆 Future of work 未来的工作

about the impressed 关于留下印象的

8© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Web1.0 vs Web2.0Web1.0 与 Web2.0

Web1.0 Web2.0

Read-only 只读网页 Read + write 可读写网页Consumer消费者

“Prosumer” = Producer + Consumer生产者 + 消费者

User使用者“Youser”你

High barrier of exit (stickiness)高的退出壁垒（粘性） Low barrier of adoption较低的进入壁垒Pretest and validate预先测试和验证 Launch and learn; Push and pray发起和学习；推进和请求

Taxonomy (controlled)基于超链接的探索（体现出作者的控制） “Tagsonomy” (not controlled)标签法（不受控制的）

9© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 From Targeting to Discovery从定位到发现

Target 目标定位 Search搜索 Discover发现

Web 1.0 Web 2.0Discovery based on hyperlinks (expressing control of author)基于超链接的探索（体现出作者的控制）

Discovery based on social relations (trust, reputation)基于社会关系的发现（信任，信誉）以及其他

人的元数据。Push: Supply driven.推式广告：供给驱动 Pull: Demand driven拉式发现：需求驱动

10© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Attributes of Web2.0

User focus (E-Business Me-business)User is at the center of Web2.0

TransparencyGoogle Maps: Create API rather than tighten security

TechnologyLightweight

System engineered for feedbackSystem improves as people use it

Network effectsDemand-side economies of scale (not only supply-side economies of scale)

IncentivesPay people (e.g., Yahoo directory index)Get volunteers (e.g., wikipedia)Create self-interest (e.g., BitTorrent; file sharing sites)

12© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Web 1.0 Web 2.0

Background (2007)1 bn PCs, 2 bn mobile phones150M registered eBay users, more transactions per day than NYSE80M blogs total, 20 new entries per second, 2 new blogs created every secondUS online advertising USD 15…20bn (12.5bn in 2005)

Web 1.0 Web 2.0Power Companies need to be

protected from usersUsers need to be protected

from companiesCore Algorithms Data

Hardware SUN etc Commodity PCs

Software Oracle etcLAMP

(Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP)

System often deteriorates over time

System engineered to improve over time by

leveraging user data

13© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Technology innovation

•Military

•Enterprise

•Consumer

Centralized Top-down

•Consumer

•Enterprise

•Consumer

De-centralized Bottom up

14© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 User generated content (UGC)用户自创内容

Paying a few experts to create content Users generated content雇几个专家来创造内容用户自己创造的内容

Implicit data and explicit data 隐含的数据 + 明确的数据Incentives?激励运作 ?Metadata元数据 Example: Music例子：音乐

15© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Social search社会搜索

•Algorithmic search Social search规则搜索社会搜索 Use information of files, email etc. on your computer to determine

relevance使用你的电脑文件里的信息来决定相关性

Example: Illumio例如： Illumio Customers helping customers: People answer questions

消费者互助 : 人们回答问题Exmple: Yahoo Answers例如： Yahoo Answers

17© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Social search – Korea韩国的社会搜索

• KoreanClick 2007.07

•Naver 77% of searches

占 77% 的搜索110M queries per day by 16 M unique users per day out of 48M citizens4800 万人口中，每天有 11000 万条询问来自于 1600 万个用户

Knowledge iN (since 2002)Knowledge iN （始于 2002 年）

44k questions posted per day每天有 44000 条问题110k answers received per day每天会收到 110 ， 000 条回复Cumulative 70M累计达到 7000 万条

•Other search engines Daum.net 11%

Daum.net 占 11% Yahoo 4.4%

Yahoo 占 4.4% Google 1.7%

Google 占 1.7%

18© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Knowledge Search, Yahoo 2003 in Korea韩国版的 Yahoo 知识搜索工具

18

19© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Popular questions in Korea什么问题在韩国最流行？

Why do people close their eyes while they are kissing?为什么人们接吻的时候要闭上眼睛？The most common name in the world?世界上最通用的名字是什么？What’s the truth of Bruce Lee’s death?李小龙的真正死因是什么？Why do people get drunk more when drinking alcohol with a straw? 为什么当人们使用吸管喝酒的时候更容易喝醉？Are there any animals that commit suicide? 什么动物会自杀？

Is that true that most of The Great Commanders are short? 大多数的大人物都很矮，这种说法对吗？Why is the Ocean salty? 为什么海水是咸的？Why do people lift up their hands to show their joy of victory? 为什么人们要举起手来表示他们胜利的喜悦？The Secret of Popularity of Harry Potter Series!! 哈里波特系列如此畅销的秘密。Badly want to lose my weight.... Help. 非常非常想减肥… . 请帮忙！

20© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Amazing user adoption…网络搜索的惊人增长

20

Naver

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000O

ct-0

2

Jan-

03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Aug

-03

Oct

-03

Dec

-03

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Dec

-04

Feb-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Page

Vie

ws

per W

eek

Knowledge Search

知识搜索

每周的网页浏览数

21© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 …with a Web search halo网络搜索的惊人增长

21

Naver

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000O

ct-0

2

Jan-

03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Aug

-03

Oct

-03

Dec

-03

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Dec

-04

Feb-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Page

Vie

ws

per W

eek

Web SearchKnowledge Search

网络搜索知识搜索

每周的网页浏览数

22© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Yahoo Taiwan: Design

Yahoo台湾：设计

22

23© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Yahoo Taiwan: Launch 2004.12

Yahoo台湾（ 2004 年 12月诞生）

23Source: InsightXplore ARO

Total Search Market Share (PVs)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Yahoo! 68%

Google 29%

MSN 1.5%

Total Search Market Reach

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yahoo! 89%

Google 51%

MSN 24%

Y! Knowledge 67%

Total Search Market Reach Total Search Market Share (PVs)

Yahoo! 68%总的搜索市场范围 总的搜索市场份额

24© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Yahoo Answers US: DesignYahoo Answers美国：设计

24

25© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Yahoo Answers US: Launch 2005.12

Yahoo Answers美国（ 2005 年 12月诞生）

25

Answer.yahoo.com Answer.google.comQna.com.com

26© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Typical interaction典型的互动

Example: I need a 7th grade science experiment using food and how quickly it molds例如：我需要七年级的用食物来观察多久发霉的科学实验

26

27© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 US web search美国的网络搜索

US web search market share: Y! flat, Google taking share from MSN and AOL美国的网络搜索市场份额： Yahoo 和 Google 超过了MSN 和 AOL

27 Source: Comscore qSearch reportsQuarterly data reflects end of period data

50.7%

44.0%

30.0%30.0%

11.2%

14.0%

5.5%

9.4%

2.5%2.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec-03

Feb-04

Apr-04

Jun-04

Aug-04

Oct-04

Dec-04

Feb-05

Apr-05

Jun-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Apr-06

Jun-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Dec-06

Google Yahoo MSN AOL Ask

28© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Landscape of Web Search网络搜索行业的特点

Levers to gain market share两个赢得市场份额的要素

Superior quality Distribution质量和分销渠道

Mechanisms to lock-in share锁定市场份额的办法

Differentiated content差异化的内容Superior monetization较好的货币化

Country leader has advantage本土领先优势

US (Google), KR (Naver), CN (Baidu)Google 在美国， Naver 在韩国， Baidu 在中国

New players face significant barrier to entry进入壁垒高

Brand and user habits dominate品牌和用户习惯起主导作用：

28

29© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Social search has the potential to change the game

Social search 很有可能改变游戏规则•Consumer need消费者需求 Platform enabling communities

of people to share 创造世界上最大的平台，使交易各方能够共享来自于经验的和后来学习的知识

ExperiencesLong tail knowledge

•Game changing potential游戏规则改变前景 Critical mass of content and

community of knowledge enthusiasts创造一个必不可少的信息群以及一个由热心人建立的知识社区

Change the search experience改变搜索经历

29

32© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Why is this game changing?为什么游戏规则会改变？

32

Person with a Question?有疑问的人

Ask

ask family/friends Google/Yahoo

Blog FacebookWikipedia. . . . . .

Share

Person with Knowledge有答案的人

33© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Learnings经验之二

The expertise is in the tail专家位于尾部（占少数）

It’s about the people以人为本

33

怀孕和做父母的最佳答案

34© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Use in politics: Hilary Clinton asking about healthcare

根据你的个人家庭生活经验，你认为应该怎样提高美国的健康护理水平？

Hilary Clinton

35© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Social Networks (“Contacts”)社交网络（“联络”）

Build your knowledge network by connecting with the people you trust and the topics you care about通过与你信任的人和你关心的问题联系建立你的知识网络

•Benefits 好处 More personal experience

更私人化的经历 More productive experience

更有成果的经历 Faster, easier access…

更快 … to more useful, helpful,

relevant information更简单地找到更有用、更相关的信息

36© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0

Community

Interaction

Participation

Experimentation

Data

Web 2.0

The five levels

Web 1.0

37© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Increase of Communication: Five levels增进沟通的 5 个层次

Architectures of Collaboration, Community协作社区体系

Architectures of Interaction交互体系

Architectures of Participation参与贡献体系

Remember, share, discover记住，共享，发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献

Architectures of Experimentation实验体系

Act: A/B test, active learning, surveys …做法： A/B 测试，主动学习，问卷设计… Data Strategy

数据收集分析Collection, mining: Describe, predict数据挖掘：描述，预测

Web 2.0

Web 1.0

38© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0

Amount of data

数据量

1. Data collection and analysis (Amazon.com)1. 数据收集和分析 (Amazon.com)

Level层次

Customer消费者

Orders订单

Session aggregates访问总计

Clicks 点击

Data collectedin 20072007 年搜集的数据

100 MB

10 GB

1 TB

100 TB

39© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Sources of data

Order data订单

E.g., Amazon.com 例如：亚马逊网站A few GB per year每年几百亿

Click data点击数据

E.g., Facebook web logs例如： Facebook 网络链接A few TB per day每天几万亿

Intention data意图数据

E.g., Google search logs例如： google 的搜索网页

Attention data关注数据

E.g., Del.icio.us tags例如 Del.icio.us Interaction data

信息数据Social network data, email headers从社会网络，从电子邮件标题

Location data地点数据

GPS, mobile phones从全球定位系统，从移动电话

40© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0Web 1.0 与 Web 2.0

Web 1.0   Web 2.0DoubleClick --> Google AdSense

Ofoto --> FlickrBritannica Online英国在线 --> Wikipedia

personal websites个人网站 --> Blogs博客domain name

speculation投机域名 --> search engine optimization搜索引擎优化pay by impression按显示计费 --> pay for click按点击计费

screen scraping刮屏 --> web services网络服务Publishing发表 --> Participation参与

directories (taxonomy)目录（分类法） --> tagging (tagsonomy)标书签（书签分类法）Stickiness黏性 --> Syndication企业联合组织

43© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 3. Participation

3. 参与 1. Data Analysis

数据分析Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘：描述，预测

2. Architectures of Experimentation 实验体系

A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B 测试，主动学习，问卷设计

3. Architectures of Participation 参与体系

Remember, share, discover记住，共享，发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献Self-expression自我表达

44© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Platform: Yellow Pages平台：黄页

Click to Call!点击 直接通话

46© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Make customer feedback trivially easy获取消费者反馈易如反掌

Capture context automatically自动捕获内容

I went to the bathroom and came back, and the page was still loading!!我去了浴室，又回来，网页却还在下载！！

50© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Money Economy Intention Economy Attention Economy货币经济意图经济注意力经济

Click点击 Only able to click on links given on site.只能点击网站链接

51© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 From intention to attention从意图到注意力

Click点击

Search搜索

Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接

Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果

52© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 From intention to attention从意图到注意力

Click点击

Search搜索

Tag书签

Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接

Label item. To remember, share ， discover.留下标签。记忆，共享，发现

Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果

Amou

nt o

f spe

cificit

y in

crea

ses

针对性愈加明显

53© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Example: del.icio.us例子： del.icio.us

Tags are distilled attention, a pure form of attention.书签是过滤的了注意力，是纯粹的注意力You are what you tag.书签展示真我You are what you are tagged as / who you are tagged by.书签决定你的存在

Discover other users who tagged

the page找到给同一页面贴上书签的其他网友

Follow a user and discover what he is interested in探索该网友的兴趣爱好

Follow a tagand discover a

topic跟随书签发现话题

54© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0

你想评论一下吗？

Example: flickr例子： flickr

Quentin Lee, Filmmaker(Drift, Ethan Mao)

56© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 The Tectonic Shift in Trust信息的结构性转变

LeadersElders

ExpertsCelebrities

Alternative opinionsFriends and family

The man on the street

The Age of Deference服从时代

The Age of Reference关系时代The man on the street

Friends and familyAlternative opinions

CelebritiesEstablishedauthorities

EldersLeaders

Most trusted source信任度最高

Least trustedSource信任度最低

领导长者专家名人

备选方案 亲友陌生人

57© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 What is happening now?新世界

Empower millions of users to contribute上百万网民共同参与 del.icio.us: tag web pages网页书签 flickr.com: tag photos照片书签 43things.com: tag life goals目标书签

One-to-many一对多 Many-to-many多对多

58© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Network of Books based on Customers who Bought Also Bought书籍网络：买这本书的人也会买那本

Letters to Young ConservativeRogue State

Lexus and Olive Tree

Clash of Civilizations

Into the Buzzsaw

War on FreedomWhen I was a Kid...

Why We Fight

What So Great About America

O'Reilly Factor

See No Evil

Hell to Pay

Fighting Back

American Jihad

No-Spin Zone

Invasion

Mission Compromised

Death of the West

Final Days

Breakdown

Shakedown BiasLet Freedom Ring

Slander

Jihad Vs. McWorld

Blowback

Supreme Injustice

Bush Dyslexicon

Downsize This

The Chastening

Elusive Quest for Growth

Stupid White Men

Manufacturing Consent

Understanding Power

Hunting of the President

Betrayal of America

Paradox of American Power

Crashing the Party

What Went Wrong

Globalization and Its Discontents

Forbidden Truth

9-11 Chomsky

Blinded by the Right

George Soros on Globalization

Divine Right of Capital

Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace

Wealth and Democracy

Best Democracy Money Can Buy

Silent Takeover

来源 Source: Valdis Krebs

59© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 What blogs are linking to weigend.com?有哪些博客有 weigend.com 的链接？

60© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Chris Anderson’s blog: LongTail.com (Aug 16 2006

entry) Chris Anderson 的博客： LongTail.com(2006 年 8月 16日 )

来源 Source: Chris AndersonWIRED, Oct 2004

长尾效应

63© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Recommendations create demand in the “long tail”

“长尾效应”中的推荐刺激需求

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

0 2000 4000 6000 80000

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

CopiesShippedCum Ships

50% of Turns from titles 1,150-30,000

39% of Turns from titles 2001-30,000

64© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 4. Interaction

4.交互 1. Data Analysis

数据分析Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘：描述，预测

2. Architectures of Experimentation 实验体系

A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B 测试，主动学习，问卷设计

3. Architectures of Participation 参与体系

Remember, share, discover记住，共享，发现Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献Self-expression自我表达

4. Architectures of Interaction 交互体系

65© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Platform: eBay feedback (ratings, reputation system)平台： eBay反馈 (评级，信誉系统 )

66© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Who is checking me out?谁浏览了我的网站？

最近浏览了我的联系页的成员

67© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Xing/LinkedIn, openBC

Monetization货币化

Advertising广告Subscriptions订阅Especially Recruiting / Headhunting招聘 /猎头

Innovation革新

Auto-create resumes, and make it easy for people to edit their own resumes自动生成简历以便随时编辑

68© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Dating (Match.com, Fridae.com, …)网上交友 (Match.com, Fridae.com, …)

Monetization货币化

Subscription订阅 But since inventory is key, need to also

have a free version (network effect)因为库存是关键，也需要有免费版本 ( 网络效应 )Advertising广告

Innovation创新

Ranking bi-directional (as one choice)双向排序 ( 作为选择 )Ranking based on implicit behavior基于隐秘行为排序Data mining to understand physical advertising数据挖掘以理解实物广告Modeling modalities vs asking explicitly规律建模与直接询问Reputation, domain specific名誉，特定领域

General problem普通问题

Demand very uneven需求很不均匀 Very attractive or influential people

get more traffic than they want, and have very little to gain from the list, and then unsubscribe非常引人注目或者有影响的人得到过多访问，而并未从列表中获利多少，所以可能取消注册

Need to create a currency (such as ‘virtual red roses) 需要创建流通货币 ( 如虚拟红玫瑰 )

69© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Online Personals and Dating 网上社交和约会

2004 market size: $ 1 billion2004 年市场规模： 10亿美元

Most profitable online content!最有利可图的网上内容！Current doubling time: 1 year目前翻番的时间跨度： 1 年

match.com1M subscribers ($20/month)100 万注册用户（每月会费 20美元）Churn “problem” 会员流动“问题” Average customer lifetime 3-5

months 注册用户的平均持续期为 3-5 个月 1/3 of subscribers that quit re-

subscribe within 12 months注销的用户中有 1/3 在 12 个月内重新注册 friendster.com

3M subscribers (10/2003)300 万注册用户（截至 2003 年 10月）

And more…更多……

Mobile phone dating手机交友

70© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Sept 2003 U.S. snapshot: 27M males age 18-34 on Web美国 2003 年 9月概况： 2700 万 18-34岁的男性网民

•Males in U.S. age 18-34　 美国 18-34岁的男性

Total users ： 27M因特网用户数 : 2700 万人 (= 100%)

Adult Sites: 19M visitors 成人网站： 1900 万访问者 (= 71%)

Personals Sites: 9M visitors　社交网站： 900 万访问者 (= 32%)

More details 更多内容

27 million 18-34 year-old males who used the Internet in September spent an average of 32 hours per month online (in September, per person).九月份使用过因特网的 2700 万 18-34岁男性，平均每人每月在线时间为 32 小时。This is 17 percent above than the 27 hours the average Internet user spent online during the month.这比全体因特网用户本月平均在线时间 27 小时多出 27% 。Males aged 18-34 are also more engaged Internet users, voraciously consuming 3,370 pages per user in September.18-34岁的男性属于较为狂热的网民，九月份每人贪婪地访问了 3370 个页面。

71© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Platforms平台

Enabling others让他人帮你做

Example: Amazon’s “Mechanical Turk” (www.mturk.com)例子：亚马逊的“机械土耳其人”（ www.mturk.com ）

Application: CastingWords.com应用： CastingWords.com

72© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Current Situation: Market dominated by large players现状一：大公司占据主导地位

Industry 行业 Company 公司 Ranking 行业排名 Market share 市场份额On-Line

Advertising网络广告Sina 新浪 NO.1 第一 20.4%Sohu 搜狐 NO.2 第二 13.9%

Total Share 合计份额 34.3%

On-Line Games网络游戏

Shenda 盛大 NO.1 第一 18.96%

Netease 网易 NO.2 第二 18.60%

Zhengtu 征途 NO.3 第三 14.85%

Total Share 合计份额 52.41%

IM 即时通讯Tencent 腾讯 NO.1 第一 *94.0%

MSN NO.2 第二 *35.6% Total Share 合计份额 97.7%

On-Line Shopping网络购物

Taobao 淘宝 NO.1 第一 81.9%

eBay 易趣 NO.2 第二 15.4%Total Share 合计份额 97.3%

73© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Current Situation ： Big companies are dominating the market现状一：大公司占据主导地位

Sources: 资料来源

Analysis Report on IM software 2006 from iresearch艾瑞即时通讯类软件 2006分析报告Analysis Report on Market Share of On-line Advertisement 2006 from iresearch艾瑞 2006 年中国网络广告市场份额报告Report on China On-line Games of Q4 2006 from Analysys International易观 2006 年第 4季度中国网络游戏市场季度监测Report on On-line Shopping 2006 from China IntelliConsulting Corporation正望中国 2006 年度网上购物调查报告

74© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Mobile dominates in 2007 现状二： 2007 年手机占据主导地位

Internet users: China 2nd worldwide, with highest nr of users under 30 years worldwide中国在互联网用户数量上排名第二， 30岁以下的互联网用户数量则超过世界上其他任何国家Mobile phone users: China highest worldwideMobile games : 1.48 billion RMB in 2006 (up 50% over 2005) 2006 年中国手机游戏市场规模为 14.8亿元人民币，同比增长 50%Mobile search increasing但手机搜索正在逐步兴起，前景广阔。Profit of wireless value-added business decreasing.从互联网公司财报来看，无线增值业务收入为中国互联网公司带来的效益在下降。

• Source ： CNNIC statistic report of China internet development (19th )资料来源 : 中国互联网络信息中心 (CNNIC) 19th 中国互联网络发展状况统计报告信息产业部 2007 年 5月统计 数据

Internet users

互联网用户Mobile

phone users 手机用户Ratio:

Mobile to internet users手机用户与互联网用户的比率VoiP users 手机上网用户

PCs安装的 PC数量

137M 495M 3.6 to 1 17M 59.4M

75© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Revenues: Current and expected目前和预计的收入

Dec 2006截止 2006年底 Forecast(2007)预计 (2007 年）Internet互联网

Internet user互联网用户 137M1.37亿

Annual growth: 20 million users 以每年 2000 万速度增

加Broadband user宽带用户 91M

9100万 NAMobile user移动用户 400M

4.04亿 NAAverage expense/month/user单位用户月均支出

Internet user互联网用户 RMB170/month每月 170 元 RMB 195.76 (2007)195.76 元（ 2007全年）

Annual Revenue行业整体年均收入 Revenues 2007 1st Half2007 年上半年

Search Engine搜索引擎市场RMB 1.15 billion （ 2007 1st

Half ）11.5亿元 （ 2007 年上半年）

RMB 2.712 billion (2007) 27.12亿元 （ 2007全年）

Online Gaming网络游戏RMB 6.5 billion （ 73.5% than

2005) 65亿元（比 2005 年增长

73.5% ）30.2% （ CAGR ）

Advertising网络广告RMB 4.66 billion 48.9% than

2005) 46.6亿元 （比 2005 年增长

48.9% ）RMB 7.632 billion (2007)

76.23亿 （ 2007全年）50% （ CAGR ）

76© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代

  70‘s& 80's 90'sMain media 主媒介 TV

电视 Computer 电脑 Information 信息量 finite 有限的 infinite 无限的

Information Carrier 信息载体 paper and image 纸制和影像的 electronic 电子的Information dissemination 信息传播 one-way 单向

two-way or multidimensional 双向乃至多维的

Material 物质 finite 有限的 Ample 充裕communication way 通讯手段 telephone

固定电话 IM and mobile phone IM 和手机

friend cycle 朋友圈 family, reletives,

schoolmates 家人、亲戚、同学earth 地球人

relevance 关联方式 Realistic structure 现实结构 interest & hobby 兴趣爱好

77© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代

  70‘s& 80's 90'sLearning institutions 学习场所 school 学校 search, BBS 搜索、 BBS

Express views 发表见解 speak on the class 课堂上发言 write Blog 写 Blogcomments scource 意见来源 teacher and parents 老师和父母 all the people online 互联网上的所有人

Production 制作 guo families, play mud 过家家、玩泥巴 design product online 在网上设计产品shopping 购物 virtual shopping 现实购物 online shopping 网上购物payment 支付 cash 现金 Electronic Money 电子货币

entertainment content 娱乐内容 cartoons 动画片 online gaming 网络游戏entertainment way 娱乐方式 watch 观看 role play 角色扮演

78© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Fast growing 90’s generations 虚拟一代（ 90’s ）快速成长

The Coverage of users between 18-24 years old is the highest, reached to 38.8%, the future coverage of 90’s is expected higher18～ 24岁间网民的普及率最高，达到 38.8% ， 90’s 的未来普及率将更高Internet is the main medium for 90’s, and which is different from the generation who grew up with the TV90’s 以互联网为主媒介，不同于在电视为主媒介环境下成长的一代Virtual is the reality, all is the now虚拟就是现实，一切都是现在Collaboration online after the disappearance of time and room时间和空间消失后的网上协作生产Self-centered perceptual consumption 自我为中心的感性消费All media experienced communication 全媒体的体验式沟通

79© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Top sites最大的 20 个网站

Rank 排名 Web Site 网站1 yahoo.com2 msn.com3 google.com4 youtube.com5 live.com6 myspace.com7 baidu.com8 orkut.com9 wikipedia.org10 qq.com11 megaupload.com12 yahoo.co.jp13 microsoft.com14 hi5.com15 facebook.com16 sina.com.cn17 blogger.com18 rapidshare.com19 ebay.com20 friendster.com

80© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Future III: The innovation of Web 2.0 is going on 未来三：中国 Web2.0革新仍在继续

10 of the top 20 global websites are online community sites 在全球访问量最大的前 20 家网站中，社区 /分享类网站基本占到一半

SNS, social networking sitesSNS 社交网络网站

Focused on very few sites in the US…YouTube has 60% market share (160M users in May 2007)YouTube今年五月市场占有率达到 60% （有 16000 万用户MySpace has 80% of pageviews of community sites MySpace访问量占网络社区访问总量的 80% Facebook is fastest growing (35M active users in Jul 2007, doubling every half year)Facebook 发展最快（ 2007 年 7月有 3500 万在线用户，每半年翻一番）

… but scattered in China… 但是中国的网络社区市场非常分散

81© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Four dimension 四维度空间

Person人

Global全球脑

Multi group

多群体Single group单群体

Individual孤立

Creation创造

3D三维剧本化

2 D二维One-way单一手段

One-dim

ension单一维度

Multi- way

多样手段M

ulti-dimension

多个维度

Video视频Audio音频Picture图片Text文字

Information信息

Relationship关系

Role-play 扮演

Interactive交互

Dating 交友Business 商务

Space 空间Blog 博客BBS 论坛

Footprint 脚印Notes 留言Message 消息IM 即时消息

AvatarOnline gaming 网游SL

82© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 Recent developments in social networking space in

China中国目前的社交网络空间发展 Baidu launched social search (similar to Yahoo Answers)百度搜索社区初步成型（类似于 Yahoo Answers ）

Baidu innovation: PostBa (2006)百度创新： PostBa （ 2006 年）Yahoo Answers itself inspired by Naver in KoreaYahoo Answers灵感来自于韩国的 Naver

Sina and Sohu add community and social networking aspects to their blogs新浪 / 搜狐的博客正向社区和社交网络形态演化

More than a dozen clones of Second Life in China (July 2007)中国有 12 多家企业在推出或正在推出类似 Second Life 的服务（ 2007 年 7月）

83© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 The Backdorm Boys

84© p

eopl

e &

dat

a | w

ww

.wei

gend

.com

| +

1 65

0 90

6-59

06 |

+49

174

906

-590

6 | +

86

138

1818

380

0 More at Kaiser Kuo’s BackDormBoys Deck