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Performance Evaluation of Addendum IV
Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board
October 24, 2016
Regulatory Measures in 2015
Overview
• Addendum IV Background
• Addendum IV Performance
–Results
–Discussion
Addendum IV Background
• The 2013 benchmark stock assessment for Atlantic Striped Bass showed:
–Stock was not overfished and overfishing was not occurring
–Fishing mortality (F) above the F target
–Spawning stock biomass (SSB) below the SSB target
–Management action triggered
Addendum IV Background
• Addendum IV was approved in October 2014 with the goal of bringing F back down to the target level in 2016
• Required states to implement measures that achieve at least a:
–25% reduction in harvest from 2013 levels for ocean fisheries
–20.5% reduction in harvest from 2012 levels for the Chesapeake Bay fisheries
Addendum IV Background
• Addendum IV regulatory changes were implemented prior to the 2015 season
• Commercial fishery changes:
–Amendment 6 quota allocations were reduced by 25% for the ocean fisheries
–Chesapeake Bay commercial quota was set at 20.5% less than that harvested from the Bay in 2012
Addendum IV Background
• Addendum IV regulatory changes were implemented prior to the 2015 season
• Recreational fishery changes:
– Ocean fisheries implemented a one fish bag limit and a 28” minimum size limit for the recreational fishery
– Chesapeake Bay recreational fisheries implemented a suite of management measures that were projected to achieve the F target
– States could implement alternative measures through the conservation equivalency process
• A preliminary analysis on the performance of Addendum IV regulatory measures was conducted by Plan Review Team (PRT) in August 2015 by comparing 2015 harvest to the appropriate reference period
Addendum IV Background
RegionEstimated Change
in HarvestActual Change
in HarvestOcean -29.7% -41.0%
Chesapeake Bay -22.1% +53.4%Total -25.8% -22.4%
• Board directed TC to investigate further and consider the impacts of several variables that could be contributing to the discrepancies between predicted and observed harvest
• TC looked at several factors:– Changes in size and age structure of available fish
– Changes in effort
– Changes in proportion of fish released alive vs. total catch
Addendum IV Background
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Changes in Harvest Patterns - Commercial
Ocean (Commercial – Pounds of fish)Estimated
Reduction from
2013 Quota
Actual Reduction
from 2013 Quota
Actual Reduction
from 2013 Harvest
-25.0% -50.0% -24.9%
Chesapeake Bay (Commercial – Pounds of fish)
Estimated Reduction from
2012 Harvest
Actual Reduction from 2012
Harvest
-20.5% -25.1%
Changes in Harvest Patterns - Recreational
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Recreational Fisheries (Numbers of fish)
RegionEstimated Change
in Removals
Actual Change in
Removals
Ocean -29.6% -47.0%Chesapeake Bay -22.1% +58.4%
Changes in Harvest Patterns – Harvested vs. Dead Releases
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Region SectorChange in
Removals
Ocean
Recreational Harvest (A+B1) -55%
Recreational Release Mortality
(9% B2)-24%
Chesapeake
Bay
Recreational Harvest (A+B1) +51%
Recreational Release Mortality
(9% B2)+69%
Addendum IV Performance -
Results
• Size and Age
Structure of catch:
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Pro
po
rtio
n
Age
Ocean CAA
2013
2015 0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Pro
po
rtio
n
Age
Chesapeake Bay CAA
2012
2015
Addendum IV Performance - Results
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Nu
mb
er o
f fi
sh (
A+B
1)
Ocean
2013
2015
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f fi
sh (
A+B
1)
Fork Length (in)
2013
2015
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Bay
2012
2015
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Fork Length (in)
2012
2015
• Size and Age Structure of catch:
Addendum IV Performance - Results
• Changes in Harvest Patterns – Recreational by wave and mode:
–No consistent pattern in harvest by wave and mode for each state
–Some states saw increases and some saw decreases in some waves/modes
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Changes in Effort
*trips where striped bass was the primary or secondary target
RegionChange in Total Trips
Change in Directed Trips*
Ocean -13% -27%
Chesapeake Bay -13% +50%
• All states in Ocean fishery had a reduced number of
directed trips with the exception of New Jersey who
saw an increase of 2%
• There was no consistent pattern in effort by wave
and mode for each state
Changes in Harvest Patterns –Released Alive vs. Total Catch
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Percent of Total Catch Released Alive
Region Reference Year 2015
Ocean 79% 86%Chesapeake Bay 87% 89%
Regulations are working, anglers are releasing more fish alive
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Changes in Harvest Patterns – Percentage of Released vs. Total Catch
• Every state in the Ocean and Chesapeake Bay experienced an increase in the percentage of striped bass released alive vs. total catch in 2015 compared to the reference year with the exception of Maryland who had a small decrease of 1%
Addendum IV Performance - Results
Changes in Harvest Patterns – Percentage of Released vs. Total Catch
• ME, MA, CT, NJ and NC in the ocean experienced a change of less than 10%
• For the remaining states, the percentage of total catch harvested, decreased more than the percentage released, indicating anglers were releasing more fish alive
Addendum IV Performance - Discussion
• Goal: Identify variables contributing to the differences seen in 2015 removals compared to those estimated by the TC
–The Ocean recreational fishery saw a larger reduction than that estimated by the TC
–The Chesapeake Bay recreational fishery saw an increase in harvest when a decrease was expected
Addendum IV Performance - Discussion
• Size and bag limit analyses assume effort, angler behavior, catch-per-unit-effort, and the size composition and distribution of fish available to anglers will be the same in the future
• Changes in these variables can lead to reductions different than those originally estimated
Addendum IV Performance - Discussion
The most significant variables contributing to differences in realized harvest vs. estimated were:
• Effort
– Striped bass targeted trips decreased 27% in the Ocean fishery.
– In the Bay however, targeted trips increased
• Availability of the 2011 year class
– The 2011 year class was nearly fully recruited to the Bay fishery in 2015
– The length of 2011 year class fish coincided with the Bay’s legal size limits
Addendum IV Performance - Discussion
• Overall, Addendum IV measures are working, and harvest in the coastal fishery was reduced by the necessary amount
• Although harvest in the Bay increased, given the availability of the 2011 year class and increased striped bass targeting, the management measures likely reduced harvest from what could have been taken under the previous regulations
Addendum IV Performance
Questions???
2016 Stock Assessment Update for Atlantic Striped Bass
Catch Data• MRIP estimates of harvest and dead releases for
ME, NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, VA (wave 1 externally estimated), and NC (ocean only)
• Reported commercial harvest for MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, PRFC, VA and NC (ocean only)
• Commercial dead discards estimated from tag and MRIP data
Missing Catch Data
• Catch from major rivers (e.g., Hudson River, Delaware River, etc.)
• Unreported catch (e.g., poaching, underreporting)
Coast-wide Landings (mt)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
19
47
19
52
19
57
19
62
19
67
19
72
19
77
19
82
19
87
19
92
19
97
20
02
20
07
20
12
Lan
din
gs (
mt)
Year
Commercial
Recreational
Coast-wide Removals
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Nu
mb
er
Year
Commercial Harvest
Commercial Dead Discards
Recreational Harvest
Recreational Dead Releases
2015Rec Har: 44.6%Rec Dis: 25.0%Com Har: 20.5%Com Dis: 9.9%
2015: 27% decline
Total Catch By “Fleet”
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Nu
mb
ers
Commercial Dead DiscardsOcean (includes DE)Chesapeake Bay
Bay: 44.7%Ocean: 45.5%Comm Dis: 9.9%
Total Catch Composition
Year Class
Catch Composition
(cont.)
Catch Composition
(cont.)
Catch Composition
(cont.)
YOY, AGE-1, AGGREGATE AND AGE COMPOSITION SURVEYS
State Index Design Time of Year What Stock? Ages
Marine Recreational Fisheries Survey Total Catch Rate Index Stratified Random May-Dec Mixed Aggregate (3-13+)
Connecticut Trawl Survey Mean number per tow Stratified Random April-June Mixed Aggregate (4-6)
NEFSC Trawl Survey Mean number per tow Stratified Random March-May Mixed Aggregate (2-9)
New Jersey Trawl Survey Mean number per tow Stratified Random April Mixed 2-13+
New York Ocean Haul Seine Survey Mean number per haul Random Sept-Nov Mixed 2-13+
Delaware Electrofishing Survey Mean number per hour Lattice April-May Delaware 2-13+
New York YOY Seine Survey Mean number per haul Fixed July-Nov Hudson 0
New York W. Long Island Seine Survey Mean number per haul Fixed May-Oct Hudson 1
New Jersey YOY Seine Survey Mean number per haul Fixed/Random Aug-Oct Delaware 0
Virginia YOY Seine Survey Mean number per haul Fixed July-Sept Chesapeake 0
Maryland YOY and Age 1 Seine Survey Mean number per haul Fixed July-Sept Chesapeake 0-1
Maryland Gillnet Survey Mean number per set Stratified Random April-May Chesapeake 2-13+
Virginia Pound Net Survey Mean number per set Fixed March-May Chesapeake 1-13+
Distribution of Indices
• Updated• NY YOY changed
Fisheries-Dependent Fisheries-Independent
YOY and
Age 1
STATISTICAL CATCH-AT-AGE MODELING
Statistical Catch-At-Age Model
• Forward projecting statistical catch-at-age model• Age-1 abundance (recruitment) in each year• Fully-recruited F in each year• Catch selectivity in 4 regulatory periods
- (try separate regulatory for 2015 – little difference)• Catchability coefficients for all indices• Selectivity for each survey with age composition data
• Data are split into three “Fleets” based on regions• Chesapeake Bay, Coast and Commercials Discards• Improved selectivity fits• Provided partial F for each fleet
• Age-specific M were used (1.13: age 1 to 0.15: age 7+)
Fully-Recruited F (+1 SE) By “Fleet”2015Bay: 0.06Ocean: 0.12Comm Disc: 0.01
Recruits (Age-1) (+SE)
Abundance
Female Spawning Stock Biomass (+95%CI)
Female Spawning Stock Numbers
RETROSPECTIVE
Retrospective Analysis
STATUS OF THE STOCK
Status of the Stock
PROJECTIONS
Constant Catch
Probability of being overfished
SSB
Constant Catch
Probability of being below the SSB target
SSB
Constant Catch
FProbability of
overfishing
Constant Catch
FProbability of being
above the target
Constant F = F2015 = 0.16
SSBP(SSB) <=
Target/Threshold
Constant F = Ftarget = 0.18
SSBP(SSB) <=
Target/Threshold