performance of global forecast system ncmrwf/imd (india) presentation for annual performance...
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Performance of Global Forecast System
NCMRWF/IMD(INDIA)
Presentation for Annual performance evaluation of NCEP production suite at NCEP, Maryland, USA during 6-8 December 2011
Care-takers• NCMRWF• Data/monitoring: Munmun Das Gupta,
Indira Rani• Analysis : V S Prasad• Model/post : Saji Mohandas• Verification : Gopal Iyengar• GEFS : E N Rajagopal• IMD
• Data/monitoring: S D Kotal • Analysis/Model/Verfication : V R Durai• Co-ordinator : S.K.Roy Bhowmik
Numerical Weather Prediction System of NCMRWF
Global ObservationsData Reception
Global Data Assimilation
Forecast Models
Users
SURFACE from land stations
Upper Air RSRW/ PIBAL
SHIP
BUOY
Aircraft
Satellite
High Resolution Satellite Obsn Internet (FTP)
RTH, IMD
GTS
NCMRWF OBSERVATION PROCESSING
NKN24x7
NESDIS EUMETSAT
45mbpsproposed dedicated link
Observation quality checks & monitoring
4 times a day for 00,06,12,18 UTC
Global Analysis (GSI)
Initial state
Global Forecast Model ( 9hr Fcst – first guess )
Global Model T574L64
10day FCST
Meso-scale Data Assimilation & Model
Statistical Interpolation Model (location specific FCST)
once in a day for 00 UTC
Visuali-sation
IMD
INCOIS
Other sectors
NKN
NKN
ISRO(MT)
Model Version Horizontal Resolution
Forecast Length
Performance
GFS T382L64
GFS version 9.0.1
~35km 168 Hrs (3hr data cutoff)
4 min. for 24 hr forecast (IBM-P6 16 nodes)
GFS T574L64
GFS version 9.0.1
~23km 240 Hrs (5hr data cutoff)
9 min. for 24 hr forecast (IBM-P6 16 nodes)
GEFST190L28
Latest version20 members
~70km 240 Hrs (Not operational)
6 min. For 24 hr forecast (IBM-P6 8 nodes)
GFS Models (NCMRWF) – Current status
High Performance Computing Systems
HPC Connectivity
No of Processorsavailable
Per node memory
Processor speed
IBM Power 6
Infini Band 38x32 (NCMRWF)24x32 (IMD)
4x32 GB 4.7 Gflops
Recent developments in NCMRWF GFS system
Implementation of the T382L64 GFS from May 2010(latest versions of upgraded model and GSI)
Assimilation of additional data in T382L64 GFSThe Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) windsRainfall rates (TRMM, SSMI)NOAA19 radiancesAtmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiancesGPSRO (COSMIC)
Implementation of the T574L64 GFS from mid-November, 2010 (July 2010 Version)
Implementation of latest NCEP version of T574L64 (from June, 2011)
The T382L64 GFS was implemented in May 2010.
The T574L64 GFS was first implemented in November 2010.
T382L64 performance was evaluated during Monsoon 2010 and was found to marginally better than the T254L64 GFS. T254L64 stopped.
T574L64 performance was evaluated during November-December 2010 and was found to better than the T382L64 GFS.
T382L64 model was run parallel to T574L64 for Monsoon 2011
The latest version of the NCEP T574L64 GFS was implemented in May 2011 and found to be better than T382L64 system
T382L64 run stopped from November 2011
End-to-end T574L64 GFS system was transferred to IMD on 15 November, 2011
Time line - NCMRWF GFS
Physics T382L64 T574L64Surface Fluxes Monin-Obukhov similarity Monin-Obukhov similarity
Turbulent Diffusion Non-local Closure scheme (Hong and Pan (1996) Non-local Closure scheme (Lock et al., 2000)
SW Radiation Based on Hou et al. 2002 –no aeroslos – invoked hourly Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM2) (Mlawer et al. 1997; Mlawer and Clough, 1998)- aerosols included– invoked hourly
LW Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) (Mlawer et al. 1997). –no aerosols- invoked 3 hourly
Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM1) (Mlawer and Clough 1997;1998). –aerosols included-invoked hourly
Deep Convection SAS convection (Pan and Wu (1994) SAS convection (Han and Pan, 2006)
Shallow Convection Shallow convection Following Tiedtke (1983) Mass flux scheme (Han and Pan, 2010)
Large Scale Condensation
Large Scale Precipitation (Zhao and Carr ,1997; Sundqvist et al., 1989)
Large Scale Precipitation (Zhao and Carr ,1997; Sundqvist et al., 1989)
Cloud Generation Based on Xu and Randall (1996) Based on Xu and Randall (1996)
Rainfall Evaporation Kessler (1969) Kessler (1969)
Land Surface Processes NOAH LSM with 4 soil levels for temperature & moisture (Ek et al., 2003)
NOAH LSM with 4 soil levels for temperature & moisture (Ek et al., 2003)
Air-Sea Interaction Roughness length by Charnock (1955)Observed SST,Thermal roughness over the ocean is based on Zeng et al., (1998).3-layer Thermodynamic Sea-ice model (Winton, 2000)
Roughness length by Charnock (1955), Observed SST, Thermal roughness over the ocean is based on Zeng et al., (1998). 3-layer Thermodynamic Sea-ice model (Winton, 2000)
Gravity Wave Drag & mountain blocking
Based on Alpert et al. (1988) Lott and Miller (1997), Kim and Arakawa (1995), Alpert et al., (1996)
Vertical Advection Explicit Flux-Limited Positive-Definite Scheme (Yang et al., 2009)
Physical Parameterization schemes in T382L64 and T574L64
New observations assimilated Improvements in Data Assimilation system
Inclusion of METOP IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) data
Use of variational qc
Reduction of number of AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) water vapor channels used
Addition of background error covariance input file
Assimilating tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure observations,
Flow dependent reweighting of background error variances
NOAA-19 HIRS/4 (High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder) and AMSU-a (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) brightness temperature,
Use of new version and coefficients for community radiative transfer model (CRTM -2.02 )
NOAA-18 SBUV/2, (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectral Radiometer) Ozone , EUMETSAT-9 atmospheric motion vectors.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Relocation
Using uniform thinning mesh for brightness temperature data.
Change in land/snow/ice skin temperature variance
Improving assimilation of GPS radial occultation data. RE-tuned observation errors.
ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) winds included
Korean AMDAR data and more number of Aircraft
Reports
European Wind profiler data
Differences of the T574L64 GSI Data Assimilation system compared to T382L64
Observation category Name of Observation.
Surface Land surface, Mobile, Ship, Buoy (SYNOPs)
Upper air TEMP (land and marine), PILOT (land and marine), Dropsonde, Wind profiler
Aircraft AIREP, AMDAR, TAMDAR, ACARS
Atmospheric Motion Vectors from Geo-Stationary Satellites
AMV from Meteosat-7, Meteosat-9, GOES-11, GOES-13, MTSAT-1R, MODIS (TERRA and AQUA),
Scatterometer winds ASCAT winds from METOP-A satellite,
NESDIS / POES ATOVS Sounding radiance data
1bamua, 1bamub, 1bmhs,1bhirs3, 1bhirs4
Satellite derived Ozone data NESDIS/POES, METOP-2 and AURA orbital ozone data
Precipitation Rates NASA/TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and SSM/I precip. rates
Bending angles from GPSRO Atmospheric profiles from radio occultation data using GPS satellites
NASA/AQUA AIRS & METOP/ IASI brightness temperature data
IASI,AIRS,AMSR-E brightness temperatures
Types of observations Assimilated in GFS
Observation Type
June July August September
SYNOP 143 139 142 136
RS/RW 33 33 37 39
PILOT 31 25 22 23
AWS 544 719 552 690
ARG 195 424 308 357
BUOY 10 10 11 10
Count of different types of observations over Indian Region(received at NCMRWF at 00 UTC from 1 to 25 of months June, July,
August, and September 2011)
Data Reception: NCMRWF vs ECMWF (S-W Monsoon, 2011)(Average number of observations received in 24 hours )
RED COLOUR INDICATES LESS DATA ; BLUE COLOUR INDICATES COMPARABLE DATA
June July August
NCMRWF ECMWF NCMRWF ECMWF NCMRWF ECMWF
SYNOP/SHIP Pressure
46,118 78,390 56,734 78,481 57,607 78,574
BUOY (Drifter) 10,715 13,953 13,882 13,879 13,752 13,531
TEMP 500 hPa Geopotential
1,088 1,286 1,271 1,286 1,320 1,336
TEMP/PILOT 300 hPa Wind
1,098 1,434 1,300 1,429 1,349 1,490
AIRCRAFT winds (300-150 hPa)
58,412 1,04,987 72,842 1,02,562 72,685 1,03,059
AMV winds (400-150 hPa)
2,00,283 10,06,280 2,55,690 9,78,269 2,43,282 9,45,691
AMV winds (1000-700 hPa)
1,28,786 8,53,193 1,54,724 8,91,204 1,52,905 8,21,724
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Global Circulation Features
NCEP
NCMRWF
Day 05 Forecast Errors 850 hPa Zonal Wind JJA 2011
Regional Circulation Features
T382
T574
ANA D03 ERR
ANA D05 ERR
T382
T574
ANA D03 ERR
T382
T574
D05 ERRANA
T382
T574
ANA D03 ERR
T382
T574
T382
T574
ANA D05 ERR
T382
T574
T382
T574
T382
T574
T382
T574
VERIFICATION AGAINST ITS OWN ANALYSIS
Models: T574, T382 and UKMO
Parameters : Zonal & Meridional Wind, Geo-potential Height, Temperature, Relative Humidity
forecast and analysis fields used are valid for 00UTC and the forecasts are based on initial condition valid for 00UTC.
computed the scores using the data at 1 degree resolution from all the models.
T382
T574
UKMO
T574
T382
UKMO
850 hPa 200 hPa
Model Day1 Day3 Day5 Day1 Day3 Day5
T382 2.9 3.0 4.3 4.6 5.9 6.7
T574 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.3 5.4 6.0
UKMO 2.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 4.3 5.1
RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Zonal Wind
850 hPa 200 hPa
Model Day1 Day3 Day5 Day1 Day3 Day5
T382 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.1 5.0 5.5
T574 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.8 5.3
UKMO 1.9 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 4.3
RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Meridonal Wind
Factors and methods used In standardized verificatlon of NWP products
Verification agalnst analysis
Area Northem hemisphere extratropics (90°N ‑ 20°N )(all inclusive) Tropics (20°N ‑ 20°S)(all inclusive) Southem hemisphere extratropics (20°S ‑ 90°S)(all inclusive)Grid Verifying analysis is the centre's on a latitude‑longitude grid 2.5° x 2.5°; origin (0°,0°)Variables MSL pressure, geopotential height, temperature, windsLevels Extratropics: MSL, 500 hPa, 250 hPa Tropics: 850 hPa, 250 hPaTime 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h,120h,144h,168h,192h, 216h, 240h ...Scores Mean error, root‑mean‑square error (rmse), anomaly correlation, S1 skill score, root‑mean‑square vector wind error (rmseV)
Verification against observationsThe seven networks used in verification against radiosondes consist of radiosondes stations Iying within the following geographical area:
North America 25°N ‑ 60°N 50°W ‑ 145°WEurope/North Africa 25°N ‑ 70°N 10°W ‑ 28°EAsia 25°N ‑ 65°N 60°E ‑ 145°EAustralia/New Zealand 10°S ‑ 55°S 90°E ‑ 180°EAustralia/New Zealand 10°S ‑ 55°S 90°E ‑ 180°ETropics 20°S ‑ 20°N all longitudesN. Hemisphere Extratropics 20°N ‑ 90°N all longitudesS.Hemisphere Extratropics 20°S ‑90°S all longitudes
The anomaly correlation values are comparatively higher in the T574 GFS with a gain of 1 day in the skill of the forecasts.
In the lower panel the line plot depicts the difference of the forecasts of Geopotential Height of the T574 GFS from the T382 GFS.
The difference values outside the histograms are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence.
Anomaly correlation of 10 day forecasts of 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the Northern Hemisphere from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS
The RMSE values are comparatively lower in the T574 GFS with a gain of 1 day in the skill of the forecasts.
In the lower panel the line plot depicts the difference of the forecasts of Zonal Wind of the T574 GFS from the T382 GFS.
The difference values outside the histograms are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence.
RMSE of 10 day forecasts of 850 hPa Zonal Wind over the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) region from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS
Verification of Day 01-05 Forecast against Observations over Tropics
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 850 hPa winds in m/s
JUNE 2011
Model Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
ECMWF 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5
UKMO 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.0
NCEP 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0
NCMRWFT574
3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9
0
12
34
56
78
9
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
RM
SE
V
T80 T254 T382 T574
Verification of Day 03 Forecasts against Radiosondes over India (2005-2011)Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 850 hPa winds in m/s
Monsoon Depressions
Track Errors
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5
Days
Err
or (i
n K
m) AVE FTE T574
FTE 11 to 12june11FTE 16 to 22june11FTE 22 to 23july11FTE 22 to 23sep11
VECTOR ERROR (Km) IN THE PREDICTED TRACK OF THE FOUR SYSTEMS DURING JJAS 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5
Days
Err
or (i
n K
m)
T574
T382
VECTOR ERROR (Km) IN THE PRECDICTED TRACK OF THE FOUR SYSTEMS DURING JJAS 2011
050
100150200250300350400450
Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5
Days
Erro
r in
(Km
)
UKMO
T574
T382
RAINFALL FORECAST VERIFICATION DURING MONSOON 2011:T382,T574 & UKMO
• A detailed and quantitative rainfall forecast verification has been made using the IMD's 0.5° daily rainfall data for the entire period of JJAS 2011.
Model Day-1 Day-3 Day-5
T574 0.90 0.82 0.73
T382 0.81 0.79 0.72
UKMO 0.91 0.86 0.80
UKMO
T382
T574
Seasonal (a), Monthly (b) and weekly (c) rainfall (mm) predicted by T574L64 model for Monsoon-2011 against observed and long period average (climatology). Weekly rainfall is accumulated 7-day forecast
from single initial conditions of every week.
Forecasts of rain meeting or exceeding specified thresholds
For binary (yes/no) events, an event ("yes") is defined by rainfall greater than or equal to the specified threshold; otherwise it is a non-event ("no").
The joint distribution of observed and forecasts events and non-events is shown by the categorical contingency table.
hits false alarms
misses correct rejections
OBSERVED
YES NO
YES
NOFORECAST
FORECAST YES
FORECAST NO
OBSERVED YES OBSERVED NO
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-1 Rainfall Forecast
T382T574UKMO
Rainfall Threshold(cm/day)
ET
S
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-3 Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall Threshold(cm/day)
ET
S
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-5 Rainfall Forecast
T382T574UKMO
Rainfall Threshold (cm/day)
ET
S
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-1 Rainfall Forecast
T382T574UKMO
Rainfall Threshold(cm/day)
ET
S
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-3 Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall Threshold(cm/day)
ET
S
0.01 1 2 3 4 50
0.2
0.4
0.6
Day-5 Rainfall Forecast
T382T574UKMO
Rainfall Threshold (cm/day)
ET
S
ETS for the predicted rainfall during JJAS 2011
IMD GFS Verification - Areas
1) ALL-INDIA (Lon: 68 E – 98E, Lat: 9N – 37N)
2) Central India (Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)
3) East India (Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N)
4) North East India (Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
5) North West India (Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
6) South Peninsula India (Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
7) West Coast of India (Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N)
ALL INDIA: Weekly Cumulative Rainfall
0
30
60
90
120
Rai
nfal
l in m
mOBS
T382(CC=0.79)
T574(CC=0.83)(Lon: 68 E – 98E, Lat: 9N – 37N)
ALL India : Weekly Cumulative Rainfall
Central- INDIA:Cumulative Rainfall
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Rain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382(CC=0.77)
T574(CC=0.76)
NORTH WEST- INDIA:7 day cum. rain
0
30
60
90
120
150
Rain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382(CC=0.68)
T574(CC=0.80)(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)
NORTH EAST- INDIA:7 day cum. rain
0
50
100
150
200
250
Rain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382 (CC=0.64)
T574(CC=0.69)
EAST- INDIA:7 DAY CUM RAINFALL
0
50
100
150
200
250
Rain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382 (CC=0.47)
T574 (CC=0.75)(Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N)
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
WEST COAST OF INDIA:7 day Cum Rain
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350R
ain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382(CC=0.69)
T574(CC=0.74)
SP- INDIA: 7day Cum Rain
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rain
fall in
mm
OBS
T382(CC=0.56)
T574(CC=0.71)
(Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N)
(Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
CC: 7 DAY CUM RAIN T382 &T574
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
CENTRALINDIA
NW INDIA NE INDIA EAST INDIA SP INDIA WESTCOASTINDIA
ALLINDIA
T382
T574
CC :7 Day Cumulative Rainfall of GFS T382 &T574 vs. Observation
CENTRAL INDIA
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CC
IMDT382
IMDT574
East india
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CC
IMDT382
IMDT574
NE-INDIA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CCIMDT382
IMDT574
WEST COAST OF INDIA
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CC
IMDT382
IMDT574
SP INDIA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CC
IMDT382
IMDT574NW INDIA
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
CC
IMDT382
IMDT574
(Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N) (Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
(Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N) ((Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
GFS T574 : 168 -72 hr F/c shows a FALSE ALARM of Cyclonic Storm over Arabian sea on 6 June 2011
Analysis of 6 June 2011
(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
N-EAST INDIA
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Erro
r in
deg
C
DAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
Error in Tmax : N-EAST INDIA
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1JUNE2011
7 13 19 25 1JULY2011
7 13 19 25 31 6AUG2011
12 18 24 30 5 SEP2011
11 17 23 29
Erro
r in
deg
CDAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
Tmax (Top) and Tmin (bottom) over North-East India
Both Tmax and Tmin mostly under predicts in all 4 months i.e. from 1June to 30 Sep 2011
GFS T574: Daily Error in Maximum and Minimum Temperature over North-East India
MAE :for Tmin (1 June-30 September 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
CENTRALINDIA
EAST INDIA NE INDIA NW INDIA SP INDIA WESTCOAST OF
INDIA
Te
mp
in
de
g C
DAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
MAE for Tmax (1 June -30 September 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
CENTRALINDIA
EASTINDIA
NE INDIA NW INDIA SP INDIA WESTCOAST
OF INDIA
Tem
pera
ture
in
deg
C
DAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
GFS T574: Seasonal Mean Error in Maximum and Minimum Temperature over different Homogeneous regions of India
Mean Absolute Error(MAE) of Tmax (top)and Tmin (bottom)
For 1 June to 30September,2011
Conclusions• The vertical profile of T574L64 analyses and first guesses fits to
radio-sonde observation for JJAS 2011 shows improvement over T382L64 analyses.
• The RMSE values of fields of T574L64 forecasts against analyses and observations show improvements over T382L64 forecasts
Equitable Threat Square (ETS) computed for different rainfall thresholds shows that UKMO has higher skill score as compared with T382 and T574 for rainfall threshold >1.0 cm/day. For rainfall intensity of 0.01 cm/day all three models feature high ETS (>0.6) for all days forecast. T574 shows better skill score then T382 for all the rainfall intensities for all days.
The impact of more satellite data incorporated in T574L64, especially the AMVs over the tropics, is more evident in T574L64 analysis and forecasts when compared to the T382L64 system.
Future data plans (NCMRWF)
• VAD winds from Indian Doppler Weather Radar.• Oscat winds (Oceansat-2 scatterometer)• INSAT / Kalpana AMV• Precipitation rates from MADRAS-MT• GEOS Sounder data• Radiances from INSAT-3D and MT• Preparing plans for Indian Doppler Weather Radar
NCMRWF wish list
• Future NCEP upgrades in dynamics/physics?• Higher resolutions? (T764L91? T1148L91/
Semi_Lagrangian?)• Diversification ? (GEFS, Hybrid GSI-EnKF VA
system)• More diagnostics and verifications?• Sensitivity studies and physics
improvements?• Participation in National/international
compaigns/experiments? (MJOWG, MT)
IMD plans
• GFS T 574
• EPS T 382
• MME based on EPS
Thrust Area: Probabilistic Forecast of high impact weather in short to medium range time scale
Hurricane WRF ModelThe HWRF model has been implemented at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) following the Implementation Agreement (IA) between India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with an objective to provide improved tropical cyclone prediction capability for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea regions.
Under the program Dr Vijay Kumar and Dr Zhan Zhang, EMC, NCEP, USA were on deputation to IMD, New Delhi in July 2011 for technology transfer of HWRF model system and provide training on initial operating capability of HWRF model.
The basic version of the model HWRFV(3.2+) which was operational at EMC, NCEP was ported on IBM P-6/575 machine, IMD with nested domain of 27 km and 9 km horizontal resolution and 42 vertical levels with outer domain covering the area of 800x800 for NIO and inner domain 60x60 with centre of the system adjusted to the centre of the observed cyclonic storm.
HWRF model successfully tested for two Bay of Bengal TC cases JAL (4-8 Nov 2010), GIRI (21-22 Oct 2010) with vortex initialization and 6 hourly cyclic mode using the NCEP GFS data provided EMC team and also tested with IMD GFS spectral fields . The Atmospheric HWRF model was made operational (Experimental) to run real-time during the cyclone season-2011.
The Ocean Model and Coupler is to be implement for Indian Ocean region (regional MOM) in collaboration with EMC, NCEP and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Hyderabad, India by April 2012. Testing of the atmospheric HWRF model for the last 5 years Cyclonic Storm formed over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal for 6 to 8 cases with vortex initialization and 6 hourly cycling of forecast runs for each case with total 70 to 80 runs using the initial and boundary from NCEP GFS spectral fields are expected to be completed by the end of January 2012 and a joint report will be prepared by the end of February 2012.
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