perspectivas de la industria automotriz peru · contents © 2016 ihs markit indicadores econÓmicos...

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Perspectivas de la Industria AutomotrizPERUDiciembre, 2016

Guido Vildozo | Senior Manager, Americas

+1 781 301 9037, [email protected]

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Source: © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

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TECHNOLOGY,MEDIA &TELECOM

Contents

© 2016 IHS Markit

SOCIMÓNOCE SERODACIDNI

AL ED LABOLG AVITCEPSREP INDUSTRIA AUTOMOTRIZ

DADILIBOM NE SOIBMAC

AIRTSUDNI AL ED AVITCEPSREP AUTOMOTRIZ EN AMÉRICA LATINA

SATNEV ED AVITCEPSREP AUTOMOTRICES PARA EL MERCADO PERUANO

NEMUSER

3

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

World UnitedStates

Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China UnitedKingdom

2015 2016 2017 Avg. 2018-23

World economic growth rates

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

World avg. 2.5%

4

Crecimiento económico - Mundial


-2

0

2

4

6

NAFTA OtherAmericas

WesternEurope

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N. Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Japan OtherAsia-

Pacific

An

nu

al

perc

en

t ch

an

ge

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019–23

Asia-Pacifico será la región con mayor crecimiento

5

Real GDP


5


(Index, over 50 indicates expansion)

35

40

45

50

55

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Ind

ex,

over

50 s

ign

als

exp

an

sio

n

Global Emerging markets Developed markets

Índices de Manufactura Global

6

PMIs

Source: Markit © 2016 IHS

6


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Perc

en

t ch

an

ge

Real world exports Real world GDP

La era de rápido crecimiento comercial termino

7

Real GDP and trade


7


Precios de materias primas recuperan desde Enero

IHS Materials Price Index

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IHS

weekly

in

dexes,

2002:1

=1

All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals


8


Ventas Globales Automotrices 2016

© 2016 IHS 9

88.1

90.0

+ 1.6

+ 0.8

+ 0.2

+ 0.2 - 0.1

- 0.1

- 0.1

- 0.6

88.0

88.5

89.0

89.5

90.0

90.5

91.0

2015 Greater China West Europe South Asia North America MiddleEast/Africa

Central/EastEurope

Japan/Korea South America 2016

Mil

lio

n u

nit

s

+2.3%

9


26.4+6.0%

26.7+1.1%

27.4+2.7%

21.0+1.3%

21.3+1.5%

21.2-0.5%

19.6+3.5%

19.7+0.6%

20.1+2.3%

6.7-1.4%

6.8+2.8%

6.7-1.5%

7.8 -4.9%8.4 +4.8%

9.1 +6.6%

4.5 4.8 5.13.7 3.7 3.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018

Mil

lon

es

Greater China North America Europe Japan/Korea South Asia Middle East/Africa South America

Short term supports 3-speed world

© 2016 IHS Markit

10

Desarrollo de mercado por región

10

Source: IHS Markit


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Millo

nes

Emerging 3Q '15

Mature 3Q '15

Emerging 3Q '16

Mature 3Q '16

11

Potential of emerging markets lowered

© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

11

Desarrollo de mercado Maduro vs Emergente


Transporte/Mobilidadpresente vs. futuro (2040)

12

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.13

© 2016 IHS Markit

Un nuevo contexto global se forma, sin embargo aun no se sabe que rol cada variable tendrá

PresiónRegulatoria

Rivales Energéticos

Desarrollo Tecnológico

Conectividad

Cambios en la Sociedad

IncertidumbreEconómicaMedio Ambiente

Source: IHS Markit

Temas globales influenciando al sector automotriz del mañana

13


Potential for peak globalauto sales

Share of gasoline ICE to decline

14

El futuro de la industria puede ser muy diverso


Gasoline demand peaks in all IHS

scenarios

Electricity’s share in transportis growing

15

La gasolina será desplazada por otras energías alternativas


(million per year)

16

Pronostico de ventas de carros eléctricos por región


Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América LatinaMargen de error 2016 y perspectivas de crecimiento

17

Pais CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2017 P'17

CY 2016

Dic15 MOE '16

Argentina 650,144 631,996 -2.8% 671,076 6.2% 710,291 5.8% 579,740 15.8%

Brazil 3,333,082 2,480,502 -25.6% 1,979,968 -20.2% 1,969,610 -0.5% 2,100,228 -5.7%

Chile 328,412 283,495 -13.7% 298,081 5.1% 314,877 5.6% 262,057 13.7%

Colombia 296,047 267,821 -9.5% 237,073 -11.5% 247,472 4.4% 264,117 -10.2%

Ecuador 92,930 72,117 -22.4% 57,020 -20.9% 54,497 -4.4% 81,413 -30.0%

Mexico 1,135,029 1,351,812 19.1% 1,599,031 18.3% 1,695,393 6.0% 1,399,876 14.2%

Peru 165,915 147,559 -11.1% 151,772 2.9% 162,531 7.1% 150,483 0.9%


Perspectivas económicas - Perú

18

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

PIB

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%

Inflación

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Cambio de Moneda por USD*

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Billo

nes

(USD

)

Cuenta Corriente

*Promedio anual


Venta de Vehículos Ligeros (SAAR) - Perú

19

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Miles


Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros - Perú

20

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Miles

Sales Annual Change

Eminente retomada de crecimiento


Marcas Mas Vendidas 2016

21

Toyota Hyundai Kia Nissan Suzuki Chevrolet Renault Mazda VW Mitsubishi Others

2010 30.5% 11.5% 8.3% 10.2% 7.7% 7.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.9% 2.1% 15.7%

2015 19.3% 13.8% 14.9% 8.5% 5.8% 5.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 21.5%

2016 16.9% 16.4% 15.0% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 22.8%

2017 17.7% 15.8% 14.9% 8.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 24.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Bodytype –SUVs sobrepasaran a sedanes

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Miles

2013 2016 2020 2025


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Milla

res

Toyota OEM YOY Industry YOY

Toyota

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yaris Hilux RAV4 Corolla Avanza

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry

2016

OEM

2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2016 2025


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Hyundai OEM YOY Industry YOY

Hyundai

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

i10 Accent Tucson Elantra Santa Fe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2016 2025

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Milla

res

Kia OEM YOY Industry YOY

Kia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2016 2025

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Milla

res

Nissan OEM YOY Industry YOY

Nissan

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sentra Tiida Frontier Versa X-Trail

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2016 2025

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Suzuki

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Swift Alto Vitara APV Celerio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2011 2016 2025

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Milla

res

Suzuki OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Chevrolet

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

N300 Sail Trax Spark Captiva

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2016 2025

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Milla

res

Chevrolet OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Milla

res

Renault OEM YOY Industry YOY

Renault

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Duster Duster Oroch Logan Sandero Master

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

2011 2016 2025

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Mazda

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

3 CX-5 2 CX-3 BT-50

0

1

1

2

2

3

2011 2016 2025

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

Milla

res

Mazda OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Volkswagen

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Gol Amarok Fox Up! Jetta

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

2011 2016 2025

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Milla

res

Volkswagen OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Mitsubishi

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

L200 Mirage ASX Outlander Montero

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2011 2016 2025

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Milla

res

Mitsubishi OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Honda

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HR-V CR-V Pilot Civic Fit

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

2011 2016 2025

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Milla

res

Honda OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


BMW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

3-Series X3 X1 1-Series 5-Series

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

2011 2016 2025

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Milla

res

BMW OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Mercedes-Benz

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sprinter C-Class GLE CLA GLA

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

2011 2016 2025

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Milla

res

Mercedes-Benz OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025


Audi

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

A3 A4 Q5 Q3 Q7

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2011 2016 2025

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Milla

res

Audi OEM YOY Industry YOY

Chassis-

Cab

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

Pickup

Roadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2016

OEM 2016

OEM 2025

IHS MarkitTM COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER © 2016 IHS Markit.

No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS Markit. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS Markit permission must display IHS Markit legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS Markit shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS Markit and the IHS Markit logo are trademarks of IHS Markit.

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Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!

Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

perspectivas de la industria automotriz peru · contents © 2016 ihs markit indicadores econÓmicos...

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