perspectivas económicas del suroeste de ee.uu. y la importancia … · 2019-03-09 · 7 santa...

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Perspectivas Económicas del Suroeste de EE.UU. y la Importancia de la Industria

Maquiladora para la Región

XX Conferencia Internacional IMEF

Cd. Juárez Chih.

Jesus Cañas



Outline

• Perspectivas económicas: Estados Unidos

• Perspectivas económicas: Texas

• La importancia de la maquila para la frontera Texas-México

– El vínculo manufacturero y el comercio

– La maquiladora como motor económico de la región


• Las perspectivas de crecimiento continúan mejorando

• Crecimiento del empleo pero baja participación laboral

• El mercado de bienes y raíces en plena recuperación

• Régimen fiscal y su impacto en el consumo

• Crecimiento en el resto del mundo

EE.UU.: optimismo reservado


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Percentage*

SPF

Blue Chip

*Quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Chart 1

Las predicciones recientes indican mayor crecimiento en lo que resta del año


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

t-12 t-8 t-4 Trough = t t+4 t+8 t+12 t+16

Percent*

Trough

2006:Q2 2007:Q2 2008:Q2 2009:Q2 2010:Q2 2011:Q2 2012:Q2

Average of

five

prior cycles

Current cycle

2013:Q2

SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis. NOTE: Shaded area indicates range of previous five recoveries.

*Deviation from trough; seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.

La recuperación más lenta que en el pasado


-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Three-month

moving average

Payroll

employment**

**Month/month change.

Thousands*

*Seasonally adjusted.

El empleo sigue creciendo pero…


40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Ages 18-24

enrolled in school

Aggregate labor

participation

Ages 18-24

labor participation

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Percent Percent

La participación laboral continúa a la baja


50

75

100

125

150

175

'76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12

SOURCES: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller; CoreLogic.

FHFA

Case-Shiller

CoreLogic***

CoreLogic**

NOTE: Shaded areas indicate recession.

***Distress excluded.

Index, 2000:Q1 = 100*

*Adjusted for inflation.

**Distress included.

Los precios de las casas a la alza


Waiting on U.S. graphic from PA

U.S. Employment Update

LOST 8.7 MILLION JOBS

REGAINED 6.6 MILLION


MEXICO


2,65

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

2011 2012 ene-13 feb-13 mar-13 abr-13 may-13 jun-13 jul-13

Expectativas de crecimiento para México a la baja desde enero


TEXAS


Texas en pleno crecimiento

• 357,700 nuevos empleos en 2012

• 118,000 en los que va del 2013 (hasta junio)

• 2013 has sido volatil

• Para final de año esperamos un crecimiento

de entre 2 % y 3 %


Se han recuperado todos + 514,700 mas

Texas Employment Update

Se perdieron 429,600 JOBS


Texas crece más rápido que la nación

-2,6

-3,8

0,8

1,6 1,7 1.8

0,5

-3,4

2,2 2,3

3,3

2.1

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

U.S. Texas

Dec/Dec,

SAAR June/De


Sin embargo el crecimiento ha sido volátil en lo que va del año

-0,7

6,8

0,2

3,1

1,4

2,2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

January February March April May June

Month/month, SAAR


Crecimiento por sector

2,4

0,1

3,3 3,7 3,9

-0,2

2,5

3,2

6,4

1,2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

(NAICS Super Sectors, SA by FRB Dallas)

Oil & Gas

Extraction and

Mining Support

(2.5%)

Financial

Activities

(6.1%)

Trade,

Transp &

Utilities

(20.0%)

Manufacturing

(7.8%)

Educational &

Health Services

(13.5%)

Construction

(5.5%)

Leisure &

Hospitality

(10.1%)

Information

(1.8%)

Prof. &

Business

Services

(13.1%)

Government

(16.2%)

YTD percent

change, SAAR


Crecimiento por sector, niveles

25,9

0,6

24,5

26,6

21,2

-0,9

8,5 9,6

8,5

1,2

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

(NAICS Super Sectors, SA by FRB Dallas)

Oil & Gas

Extraction and

Mining Support

(2.5%)

Financial

Activities

(6.1%)

Trade,

Transp &

Utilities

(20.0%)

Manufacturing

(7.8%)

Educational &

Health Services

(13.5%)

Construction

(5.5%)

Leisure &

Hospitality

(10.1%)

Information

(1.8%)

Prof. &

Business

Services

(13.1%)

Government

(16.2%)

Thousands of jobs


Sector energético clave para Texas

• Texas es el primer productor de gas y petróleo en los Estados Unidos

• Proveeduría de servicios y tecnología a nivel internacional

• En Texas: 25 % de la capacidad de refinación y 60% de la producción de petroquímicos


La producción en las nubes debido a nuevas tecnologías

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Billion cubic Million barrels

per day

April Crude Oil

Natural Gas


La importancia de Texas en el mundo del petróleo

Crude Oil (mb/d) 2012 Natural Gas (tcf) 2011

• World 122.8

• U.S. 24.2

• Russia 23.7

• Texas 7.2 (2012)

• Iran 6.1

• Canada 5.7

• Qatar 4.9

• Norway 3.7

• Saudi Arabia 3.6

• Algeria 3.5

• Mexico 1.8

• World 75.6

• Russia 9.9

• Saudi Arabia 9.8

• U.S. (7.3 Apr 2013)

• Canada 3.1

• Mexico 2.6

• Texas 2.3 (Feb 2013)

• Venezuela 2.2

• Norway 1.6

• Libya 1.4

• Qatar 1.3


La importancia de la maquila para la frontera Texas-México


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

U.S.

Mexico

Source: Board of Governors and Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informática

Index, Jan 2007 = 100, S.A.

El principal vínculo entre EE.UU y México es la industria manufacturera


Y lo es porque…

• 18% de la exportaciones de EE.UU van a México

• 72% de esas exportaciones son manufactureras

• 8% de las importaciones de EE.UU vienen de México

• 90% de esas importaciones son manufactureras

• La maquiladora como principal vehículo

Sources: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. International Trade Commission


La industria maquiladora como espina dorsal del comercio México-EE.UU.

Title in here 1996

(Billions) 2012

(Billions) % change

Road Vehicles 19.6 73.4 274%

Petroleum 7.9 60.6 667%

Electrical Machinery 20.9 50.0 139%

Telecommunications 9.5 38.8 308%

Office /Automatic Data Processing

5.6 30.4 443%

General Industrial Machinery 4.7 24.2 415%

Power-Generated Machinery 4.8 18.2 279%

Total Trade U.S.-Mexico 131.1 494.0 277%


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Asociación Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz, A.C.

Millions of units, SAAR, 3-mo moving avg.

68,1% 0,9%

16,5%

0,8%

6,4% 1,1% 6,3% North America

Central America andCarribeanSouth America

Asia

Europe

Africa

Exportaciones de vehículos automotores


México ha venido ganando mercado en la producción de vehículos ligeros en Norteamérica

Title in here

Source: Thomas H. Klier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with data from Ward’s Automotive Group.


Percent

Source: Thomas H. Klier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with data from International Trade Commission.

Y es el principal proveedor de autopartes para el mercado de los EE.UU.

Mexico


México es el principal socio comercial de Texas

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S. minus Texas

Texas

Index, SA Real

Jan. 2000=100

6%

37%

9%

10%

16% 19%

3%

Other

Mexico

Canada

European Union

Asia, excl. China

Latin America, excl.

MexicoChina

2013:Q1


• Para Arizona, California y Nuevo Mexico, Mexico es tambien el primer socio comercial:

• Arizona ---- $6.3 billion (34%)

• California ---- $26.3 billion (16%)

• New Mexico ---- $0.6 billion (21%)

• Texas ---- $94.8 billion (37%)


Exportaciones hacia China y Europa en declive

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TX total Mexico

Canada European Union (27)

Asia** Latin America*

China

Index 97Q1=100

Real $, SA

*Note: Latin America excludes Mexico

**Note: Asia excludes China

2011:Q1


60 % de las exportaciones a México son relacionadas a la industria maquiladora

Agriculture and Food; 4%

Chemicals; 12% Mining; 2%

Paper; 2%

Petroleum and Coal Products; 16%

Plastic and Rubber; 4%

Apparel; 0%

Computers and Electronics; 25%

Electrical Appliances; 6%

Fabricated and Primary Metals; 8%

Industrial Machinery; 7%

Non-manufacturing; 1%

Transportation Equipment; 11%

Other; 3%

NOTE: Categories shaded in blue are non-maquiladora related.


Sin embargo las exportaciones petroleras son las de mayor dinamismo

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TX total Chemicals

Computers & Electronics Petroleum and Coal Products

Machinery Agriculture and Food

Transportation Equipment

Index '04 Q1=100

Real $, SA

Other 19%

18%

18%

21%

11%

4% 9%

2013:Q1


La gran mayoría del comercio México-EE.UU. es por tierra

Rank City Total Trade Share of Total (%)

1 Laredo, TX 168.79 40.9%

2 El Paso, TX 66.85 16.2%

3 Otay Mesa – San Ysidro, CA 29.20 7.1%

4 Hidalgo, TX 27.24 6.6%

5 Nogales, AZ 26.84 6.5%

6 Eagle Pass, TX 21.65 5.2%

7 Santa Teresa, NM 20.38 4.9%

8 Brownsville – Cameron, TX 16.10 3.9%

9 Calexico, CA 15.39 3.7%

10 San Diego, CA 12.70 3.1%

11 Other 7.44 1.8%

Total 412.5

Source: Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development, Texas A&M International University


What is a Maquiladora?

• Typically, maquiladoras are foreign-owned, controlled or subcontracted manufacturing plants that process or assemble imported components for export.

• Maquiladora inputs are generally imported duty-free, and countries like the U.S. only tax the value-added portion of maquiladora exports.


Empleo maquilador por sector

Title in here

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tijuana Mexicali Nogales Juarez Acuna Nuevo

Laredo

Reynosa Matamoros

Services

Other

Toys

Electronics

Machinery

Transportation

Chemicals

Furniture

Leather

Textile

Food


Title in here

Laredo-Nuevo Laredo

El Paso-Ciudad Juarez

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Maq

uila

dora

Val

ue A

dded

U.S

. bor

der C

ity

Empl

oym

ent

Laredo-Nuevo Laredo

Maquiladora Value Added U.S. Border City Employment

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

20

01

20

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

Maq

uila

dora

Val

ue A

dded

U.S

. bor

der C

ity

Empl

oym

ent

El Paso-Ciudad Juarez


Mc Allen-Reynosa

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Maq

uila

do

ra V

alu

e A

dd

ed

U.S

. bo

rde

r C

ity

Emp

loym

en

t

Mc Allen-Reynosa


-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Maq

uila

dora

Val

ue A

dded

U.S

. bor

der C

ity

Empl

oym

ent

Brownsville-Matamoros


Brownsville-Matamoros

Notes: Charts show nonfarm employment annual growth rates (left-axis) for U.S. border cities and maquiladora value-added annual growth rates (right-axis) for Mexican border cities, for the period 2000-2006. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica.

Sincronización de la actividad económica en la frontera


Title in here

El impacto de la industria maquiladora en la frontera

• Un incremento del 10% en el valor agregado de la maquila genera un crecimiento en el empleo del lado americano de:

− 3% en el empleo total de El Paso

− 3.6% en el empleo total de Laredo

− 1.9% en el empleo total de Brownsville

− 5.9% en el empleo total de McAllen


Title in here

Estimation method: IV El Paso Laredo McAllen Brownsville

City Level 2.77* 4.62 6.58* 2.21

Construction 0.20 3.19 4.04* 1.29*

Manufacturing -1.28 1.02 1.64 0.66

Transportation 5.30* 7.21* 6.63* 4.6*

Wholesale 0.43 1.96 4.01* 0.84

Retail 1.31 0.66 3.21* 1.34*

FIRE 2.12* 8.23* 4.63* 0.64

Services 1.84* 5.93* 7.38* 3.89*

Notes: This table shows elasticity estimates. That is the table shows the percentage increase in local

employment from a 10 percent increase in maquiladora production for each Texas Border Cities. *

indicates significant at the 10% level.

Source: J. Cañas, R. Coronado, R. Gilmer, E. Saucedo (2011) “The Impact of Maquiladoras on U.S. Border

Cities”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, working paper.


El impacto de la actividad maquiladora en las ciudades fronterizas ha cambiado

• Del sector manufacturero al sector servicios

• Las ciudades fronterizas proveen ahora servicios varios al flujo comercial entre los dos países

• Bueno para la región porque en teoría el sector servicios paga mejores salarios


Y por eso y muchas cosas mas… Ingreso per cápita en la frontera ha mejorado


Resumen

• Perspectivas económicas: Estados Unidos

• Perspectivas económicas: Texas

• La importancia de la maquila para la frontera Texas-México

– El vínculo manufacturero y el comercio

– La maquiladora como motor económico de la región


Questions?

Please go to www.dallasfed.org

for data and regional information.

http://www.dallasfed.org/


Y por eso y muchas cosas mas… Ingreso per cápita en la frontera ha mejorado Percent of U.S. per capita income

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010*

United States 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 100

Texas 88.9 97.7 89.4 94.9 N/A 96

Brownsville 52.8 56.3 50.6 50.0 52 56

Del Rio 67.6 61.9 57.3 56.3 66 71

Eagle Pass 38.3 41.1 36.1 38.6 44 50

El Paso 72.9 64.2 63.1 62.2 68 74

Laredo 54.9 53.6 48.3 50.5 57 59

McAllen 47.4 52.4 47.7 45.5 49 52

New Mexico 78.0 82.5 76.6 74.2 N/A 83

Las Cruces 73.4 67.9 64.7 59.7 68 71

Arizona 93.9 94.2 87.3 86.0 N/A 86

Nogales 83.4 77.8 61.6 56.6 63 66

Douglas 87.1 75.9 71.0 66.1 79 86

Yuma 84.3 80.6 70.7 55.3 64 64

California 117.7 118.2 111.1 108.8 N/A 106

El Centro 94.2 93.4 82.2 59.5 69 72

San Diego 112.6 109.7 107.1 109.9 117 115

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, 1969-2006

2010*: Per capita income for cities represents data for 2009.


Title in here

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Manufacturing, Maquiladora, and Export Service Industry (Mexico)

Index July 2007=100, SA

Matamoros

Nuevo Laredo

Reynosa

Juarez

Maquiladoras are Rebounding


Concluding remarks

• The U.S. economy is coming out of the worst recession in decades, recovery is still sluggish.

• The shape of Mexico’s recovery going forward depends on the U.S. industrial sector.

• Mexico’s recovery has spread into the domestic market.

• Mexico now plays a more important role in the North American auto sector.

• The U.S. auto sector is expected to continue to grow and this should be good news to the trade flows between the U.S. and Mexico.


A Snapshot of the Border Region Population Employment

Baja California 3,337,543 1,406,471

Sonora 2,776,754 1,162,847

Chihuahua 3,485,445 1,391,029

Coahuila 2,863,232 1,203,965

Nuevo Leon 4,866,456 2,072,301

Tamaulipas 3,398,614 1,417,165

20,728,044 22% 8,653,778 18%

California 38,041,430 19,969,266

Arizona 6,553,255 3,227,500

New Mexico 2,085,538 1,065,886

Texas 26,059,203 14,611,475

72,739,426 78% 38,874,127 82%

TOTAL 93,467,470 47,527,905

NOTES: Employment for the Mexican States is provided by ENOE; for the U.S.

States is total employment provided by BEA, US border states total employment data

are from 2011


U.S.-Mexico Border Crossings

• Besides heavy trade flows, the U.S.-Mexico border is the busiest border in the world.

• In 2010, almost 243 million people crossed from Mexico to the U.S. while only 101 million people came from Canada (non-commercial crossings)

• This means that almost one-million people cross the U.S.-Mexico border on a daily basis (northbound)

• Along the U.S.-Mexico border, Texas receives the most visitors 121 million, California 89 million, Arizona 30 million, and New Mexico 3 million


U.S.- Mexico Total Trade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Bil

lio

ns

of

Do

llar

s, R

eal,

SA

, 3

m-m

-a

5.39% above trend

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Texas

Leading

Index

Index, Oct 1971=100

NOTE: Shaded areas represent Texas

recessions.

The outlook remains conditioned on the housing improvement and growth in the energy industry

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas -50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Company Outlook (TMOS)

Company Outlook (TSSOS)

Index, 3mma SA Texas Companies Optimistic


Summary

• Texas employment grew 3.3% in 2012 – Added a total of 357,700 jobs – 343,800 private jobs

• Texas jobs grew 2.1% ytd in 2013 – 118,000 jobs

• 2013 growth has been volatile • Construction robust • Energy healthy • Exports weak • Government sector uncertain

• Texas will outperform nation again in 2013


11.4

12.7

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Production(TMOS)

Index, SA

July-2013

Service and Manufacturing Headline Indexes Suggest Moderate Expansion


Government Jobs

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Federal Govt.

Private

Index, May 2010=100, SA

NOTE: Federal government employment excludes temporary 2010 Census workers.

Local Govt.

State Govt.


Table 4: Federal Government Employment in Major Texas MSAs

Federal

Government

Employment

Federal

Government

Employment as %

of Total

El Paso 13,102 4.8%

San Antonio-New Braunfels 35,061 4.1%

Laredo 3,410 3.8%

Brownsville-Harlingen 3,135 2.4%

Fort Worth-Arlington 15,123 1.7%

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 3,551 1.6%

Dallas-Plano-Irving 29,856 1.4%

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 11,326 1.4%

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 27,330 1.0%

Texas Total 198,849 1.9%

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages


Metro Area

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

July '10 July '11 July '12 July '13

Austin

Houston

DFW

Border

San Antonio

El Paso

Index, Nov.

2009=100, SA

Federal Govt. Educ. & Health Svc.

Border, SA, El Paso 3.6% 16.9%

Rest of Texas 1.5% 12.1%

NOTE: Figures are shares of total nonfarm employment.


Single family home construction robust

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Single Family Permits

Multifamily Permits

Index, SA, 5MMA

Jan 2008=100


Texas Home Sales, Permits Trending Up

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S. Existing

Home Sales

Texas Existing

Home Sales

Texas SF

Permits

Index, Jan 2000=100

Sales 6MMA, Permits 5MMA

U.S. SF

Permits


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Texas

U.S.

Months

Metro June 2013 Inventory Dec. 2010 Inventory Austin 2.6 6.6

Dallas 2.7 7.2

Ft. Worth 3.5 7.3

Houston 3.2 8

San Antonio 4.9 8.2

Texas 4.0 8

Home Inventories Drop Sharply


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Texas U.S.

Note: Shading represents all time the home buyers tax credit was active. Vertical dashed lines show original tax

credit expriation dates.

12M Percent

Core Logic House Price Index Shows Price Gains through May


House Prices Latest Period Year/Year

Texas U.S Texas U.S

**FHFA House Price Index (Q1) 1.0 1.9 6.2 6.7

*S&P/Case Shiller Index (Apr.) 1.0 1.7 7.4 12.0

Median Sales Price (June) 0.3 0.8 8.2 11.2

*Note: Dallas is used to approximate Texas for the S&P/Case Shiller Index **Note: FHFA Index data is quarterly


Texas has much lower share of underwater mortgages

Source: CoreLogic

45

31

38

32

21

7

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Nevada Arizona Florida Michigan California Texas U.S.

Percent of mortgages with

balance > home value, 2013Q1


Office Vacancy Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percent

San Antonio

Austin

Dallas

Fort Worth

Houston

NOTE: Gray bars represent Texas recessions.


Oil & Natural Gas Prices

2

22

42

62

82

102

122

142

162

Henry Hub

(x10)

Avg. dollars/barrel

WTI


Rig count mirrors prices

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Oil Rigs

Gas Rigs

Rig Count

Texas Rigs


Exports

• TX : 4.1% m/m export growth, May 2013 (monthly data)

• TX: 0.4% q/q export growth, 1Q2013 (from quarterly data)

• TX:0.9% y/y export growth 1Q 2013 (from quarterly data)

perspectivas económicas del suroeste de ee.uu. y la importancia … · 2019-03-09 · 7 santa...

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