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Perspectives on Perspectives on UrbanisationUrbanisation::MilanoMilano, Europe & United States, Europe & United StatesPolitecnicoPolitecnico didi MilanoMilanoPresentation by Wendell CoxPresentation by Wendell Cox23 April 200823 April 2008

Lecco

http://www.demographia.com/dbhttp://www.demographia.com/db--worldua.pdfworldua.pdf

1,302 urban areasAll identified over 500,000

(707)2007 edition

2

http://www.rentalcartours.net/megacity_book.pdf

20 CompletedLos Angeles

to becompleted

byApril 1

ObservationsObservationson on MilanoMilano

Varese

3

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

1971 2001

Comune di Milano Population1971-PRESENT

Milli

ons

4

11,200

6,100

1300 3000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Milano Zona 1-3 Milano Zona 4-9 Suburbs Balance

Milan Metropolitan Area & Urban AreaMilan Metropolitan Area & Urban AreaPOPULATION DENSITY

Populationper

SquareKilometer

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Milano Los Angeles Atlanta

Agglomeration Population DensityMILANO, LOS ANGELES & ATLANTA

5

Paris

SuburbanSuburbanWorldWorld

97% 94% 93%

114%

92%

Suburban WorldSuburban WorldNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS SUBURBANNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS SUBURBAN

Aust

ralia

Cana

da

Unite

d St

ates

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Japa

n

Moscow Suburbs

6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Population perSquare KM

Paris

London

New York

Los Angeles

Historical Urban Densities PARIS, LONDON, NEW YORK & LOS ANGELES

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

Amsterdam Copenhagen Hamburg Munich Paris Vienna Zurich

Urban Population Density HistorySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS

Popu

latio

n pe

r Squ

are

Kilo

met

er

1960

2000

7

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

W-EurNon-UK

UnitedKingdom

USA Canada Australia Japan SouthKorea

Taiwan

Urban Population DensityHIGH-INCOME WORLD AGGLOMERATIONS OVER 1M

Popu

latio

n pe

r Squ

are

Kilo

met

er Note: City States: Density

Hong Kong, Singapore& Macao: 23,500

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

Oceania Canada Japan United States WE-Non UK WE-UK

Core & Suburban DensitySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS

Popu

latio

n pe

r Squ

are

Kilo

met

er

Cor

e

Subu

rbs

8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

W-Eur Non-UK Los Angeles Atlanta

Suburban Density: Early 2000sEUROPE, LOS ANGELES & ATLANTA

Popu

latio

n pe

r Squ

are

Kilo

met

er

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

W-EurNon-UK

UnitedKingdom

E-Europe Russia China LatinAmerica

Africa OtherAsia

India

Urban Population DensityWESTERN EUROPE & LOW & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD

Popu

latio

n pe

r Squ

are

Kilo

met

er

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TheTheSmart GrowthSmart Growth

IdeologyIdeology

Cairo Suburbs

Potential to Increase Housing Prices from “Costs of Sprawl---2000”

From Table 15.4, “Costs of Sprawl---2000”

Adequacy of Facilities Requirements10

Transferable Development Rights9

State Aid Contingent on Local Growth Zones8

YESRestrictions on Physically Developable Land7

YESHigh Development Fees & Exactions6

YESLarge-Lot Zoning in Rural Areas5

YESLocal Urban Service Districts4

YESRegional Urban Service Districts3

YESLocal Urban Growth Boundaries2

YESRegional Urban Growth Boundaries1

Potential to Increase Housing PricesStrategy

Smart Growth: Proponent Admissions SMART GROWTH CAN = HIGHER HOUSING PRICES

From“Costs of

Sprawl-2000”

10

Urban & Rural FootprintWESTERN EUROPE: EARLY 2000S

Rural93%

Urban7%

AgriculturalLand

WithdrawnSince 1975

=Germany

788 901

1,347

2,2632,529

Suburbanisation Dilutes CongestionTRAFFIC INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS

Vehicle Hours/Square Kilometer

By PopulationDensity

Density<1,000

1,000-2,000

2,000-4,000

4,000-8,000

8,000& Over

Hong Kong

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

10 20 30 40 50 60

Gramsper Mile@ 50°F

Slower Traffic: More PollutionSlower Traffic: More PollutionDENSITY SLOWS TRAFFIC, INTENSIFIES POLLUTIONDENSITY SLOWS TRAFFIC, INTENSIFIES POLLUTION

Los Angeles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ADM COP FFT HBG LON MCH PAR STK WIE ZCH

CBD Employment HistorySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS

Sha

re o

f Em

ploy

men

t in

CB

D

1960

1990

12

Aesthetics

Sydney Opera

Paris Opera Bilbao Guggenheim

Moscow: St. Basil’s

$0$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

AfricaLatin America

Asia

Argentina

GDP/Capita 2000$United States

W. Europe

Japan

Economies Vary by Extent of PovertyEconomies Vary by Extent of PovertyTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONSTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS

Australia

Rio de Janeiro

13

$0$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000

$25,000$30,000$35,000

$40,000$45,000

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

WALKING

TRANSIT

AUTO

Mobility Improves AffluenceMobility Improves AffluenceGDP/CAPITA SINCE 1500: MOST AFFLUENT NATIONGDP/CAPITA SINCE 1500: MOST AFFLUENT NATION

U of ParisBrookings &U. Of Calif.

Reports

Beijing

London & Paris ComparisonLondon & Paris ComparisonLONDON: DISFIGURED URBAN AREALONDON: DISFIGURED URBAN AREA

London Prud’hommeet al research

14

0 3 6 9 12

Indianapo lisP it tsburghC incinnati

D etro itD allas-F t Wo rth

Kansas C itySt Lo uis

C levelandH o usto n

A t lantaC o lumbus

San A nto nioA ustin

Greensbo roN ashville

M pls-StP aulC harlo tteM o ntreal

Salt Lake C ityM ilwaukee

P hiladelphiaD enver

T o ro ntoC hicago

Va. B eachP o rt landP ho enix

M anchesterT ampa-StP

OrlandoW Yo rkshireWashingto nW M idlands

Seat t leB risbane

B o sto nA dela ide

Las VegasSacramento

M elbo urneN ew Yo rk

M iamiVanco uver

P erthLo ndo nSydney

San F ranciscoSan D iego

Lo s A ngeles

Median Multiple by MarketOVER 1.5M POPULATION: 6 NATIONS

Leading World EconomistsSMART GROWTH REDUCES AFFORDABILITY

Ian MacFarlane, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia

Kate Barker, Member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England

Paul Krugman, Economist (Liberal)Princeton University & The New York Times

Thomas Sowell, Economist (Conservative)Hoover Institution

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Land Rationing is the IssueDESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

1988-2002Introduction to

4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.

“Costs of Sprawl-2000”: House PricesREALITY V. PROJECTION: 2000-2025: PER UNIT

-$20,000$0

$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000

20072000 2025

Promised Cost Reduction from Smart Growth

Actual Increase Relative to Other Markets (2007$)

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Land Regulations Stunt Economic GrowthLand Regulations Stunt Economic GrowthUS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCHUS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH

Philadelphia

20% less job growththan expected inmetropolitan areaswith strongestland use regulation-Raven SaksUS Federal Reserve Board

San Diego Pittsburgh

Migration: San Diego & Rust BeltNET DOMESTIC MIGRATION: 2000 TO 2006

%%%%%%%%%%

San Diego Pittsburgh Buffalo Cleveland Detroit

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Southern Greenland

GreenhouseGreenhouseGas PolicyGas Policy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Inner Inner Ring Second Ring Outer

Per CapitaAnnual GHG Emissions (Tonnes)

GHG Emissions by Proximity to Core AUSTRALIA: CAPITAL CITIES OVER 1,000,000

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Bus IntercityRail

Metro Light Rail Small Car EU 2008Goal

HybridDiesel

Grams/PKM)

GHG Emissions by Mode UNITED KINGDOM

Sustainability Requires AffordabilitySustainability Requires AffordabilityPOOR SOCIETIES DO NOT PROTECT ENVIRONMENTPOOR SOCIETIES DO NOT PROTECT ENVIRONMENT

Manila

19

Shenzhen

TheTheFutureFuture

Economic Growth is NecessaryEconomic Growth is NecessaryPOVERTY IS NOT AN OPTIONPOVERTY IS NOT AN OPTION

Dharavi Slum, Mumbai

IF ECONOMIC GROWTHIS NOT ALLOWED TO CONTINUE…

WHEN WILL AMERICANS AND WESTERN EUROPEANS START TOLIVE LIKE INDIANS AND CHINESE?

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PovertyPovertyIs notIs not

AnAnOptionOption

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC GROWTH:GROWTH:

REQUIRED REQUIRED FORFOR

SOCIAL SOCIAL COHESIONCOHESION

PLANNINGPLANNINGREFORM:REFORM:Back to Back to Basics:Basics:

Not Not telling telling peoplepeoplehow to live…how to live…

Rather,Rather,facilitating facilitating life styleslife stylespeoplepeoplepreferprefer

Planner’sRoute

People’sRoute

Paris Suburbs