The Philippines: Peacebuilding and Development

presented by Colin Lawrence and Michael Larkin

April 23rd, 2015

The Spanish, Japanese, and Americans

• Islam spreads through Southeast Asia in the 1300s • Sultanate of Sulu established in 1497

• Spanish began to conquer and colonize in 1500s • Spanish language never taught to the natives • Bibles translated into oral languages • Conquered most of the islands over a period of nearly 400 years • Established the barangay system • State promotion of the Catholic Church

• The U.S. “acquired” the Philippines after winning the Spanish-American War in 1898

• Suppressed the majority of the rebellion by 1902 • De-elevated the status of the Catholic Church by the State • Gradually increased level of autonomy, aiming for independence

by 1944

• Japanese invaded the Philippines in 1941 concurrent with the attack on Pearl Harbor

• Full independence granted in 1946

Economics

• Current projection of 6.4% – 6.6% economic growth for the year 2015

• Triple B grade for investment

• Industries: • food processing

• textiles & garments

• Electronics

• mining extraction

• agriculture

• Business – limits on FDI & foreign ownership

• Poor transportation and electricity infrastructure • “essentially a closed economy…”

Source: http://data.worldbank.org/country/philippines

Current Statistics

• Composed of nearly 7,100 islands

• 19 typhoons a year, 8-9 make landfall

• Population: 102,965,000 (2015)

• Median age: 23

• 10% of the population lives overseas, roughly 25% of the labor force

© Eugene Alvin Villar, 2003.

Source: U.S. Department of State

Wealth & Income

• Strong tradition of migration overseas

• Wealth concentrated around the capital

• Society dominated by oligarchy

• 1.00 US Dollar = 44.2550 Philippine Peso

Class % Share in Number of

Families

% Share in Total Income

Average Annual Income

AB 1% 9% PHP 1,857,000 (USD 41,961)

C 9% 26% PHP 603,000 (USD 13,626)

D 60% 56% PHP 191,000 (USD 4,318)

E 30% 9% PHP 62,000 (USD 1,402)

Total 100% 100% PHP 206,000 (USD 4,660)

Source: www.pinoymoneytalk.com/sec-abcde-percentage-population/ and www.xe.com/currencyconverter/ and the National Statistical Coordination Board of the Philippines

Demographics

• Barangay & Family identity come first

• Ethnic Diversity : • 28% Tagalog

• 13% Cebuano

• 9% Ilocano

• 8% Bisaya (160 ethnic groups)

• Religious Diversity: • 83% Roman Catholic

• 9% Protestant

• 5% Muslim (mostly in the South)

Source: National Statistics Office, Philippines

Mindanao

• Southern main island

• Historical links to Malaysia

• Never conquered by Spanish

• Overrun by the Japanese • Driven out by Moros/Allies collaboration

• Separate identity from Manila: • Ethnically

• Linguistically

• Religiously

• Large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) • 127,000 IDPs due to conflict & violence

• 326,000 IDPs due to natural disaster

Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Center

Separatists

• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) • Established after the Jabidah massacre of 1968 by Nur

Misuari, a lecturer at the University of the Philippines

• Part of the peace talks to create ARMM in 1978

• Laid siege to Zamboanga City in 2012, displacing 40,000

• Present in Mindanao, Sulu (HQ), Palawan, and Sabah

• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) • Separatist; Broke off from MNLF in 1976;

• Historical ties to terrorist groups (JI, AQ)

• Present in Mindanao, Sulu Archipelago, and Palawan

• Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) • A “lost command” of MILF since 2010; terrorist ties likely

• Possible spoiler for current peace talks

• Present mostly in Maguindanao; estimated 500+ members

Terrorists & Insurgents

• Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)* • Split from MNLF in 1991 ; historical ties to al-Qaeda

• Bombings, beheadings, assassinations 2011 U.S. hostages

• severely diminished; now mostly thugs

• National People’s Army (NPA)* • Led by the underground Communist Party of the Philippines

• Longest running post-WWII Communist insurgency

• Landmines, extortions, bombing of targeted business interests

• Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)* • Based in Malaysia; trained in MILF camps in PH

*currently designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the U.S. Department of State

Return to Democracy

• President Ferdinand Marcos (1965 – 1986) • Elected democratically, became a dictator; notorious kleptocrat

• Gun downed Sen. Aquino, sparking massive protests

• Removed from power in 1986 following a snap election

• Corazon Aquino elected president • 1987 constitution restricts President to one six-year term

• Followed by Fidel Ramos, Joseph Estrada, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

• Mother of current President Benigno Aquino, III

• Pres. Benigno “Noy-Noy” Aquino, III seen as clean until... • Supreme Court struck down Priority Development Assistance

Fund (PDAF); a discretionary fund

• Wants to change constitution to allow PDAF

• Accused of using the case to change term limits

Return to Democracy

• Filipinos don’t vote straight tickets… • Small, charismatic religious offshoots control blocks of votes

• Vice President Jejomar Binay front-runner for 2016 election • Sullied a bit by a perceived terrible response to Tacloban

rehabilitation following typhoon Yolanda; • Feared to be corrupt, though effective; • Formed the United Nationalist Alliance • likely contenders

• Secretary Mar Roxas of Liberal Party, ally of Pres. Aquino

• Senator Grace Po, independent

• Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, PDP-Laban

• Current anti-corruption court investigations against • the Philippine National Police Director-General • Secretary of Transportation • a number of prominent opposition Senators

The Bangsamoro Agreement of 2012

• Replaces the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) created in 1990 • ARMM seen as ineffective

• struck down by the Supreme Court in 2008 as “…contrary to law and the Constitution.”

• Negotiations with the MILF, facilitated by Malaysia, have moved very quickly… • legacy project for the Pres. Aquino, III

• drafting of the Basic Law is delicate

• Similar agreement spoiled at this stage in 1996

• Public sentiment positive, so far… • Mamasapano incident has sparked protests

on both sides since January

Foreign Policy

• Independence following WWII • Originally scheduled for 1944 • Offered a chance to pursue U.S. statehood

• Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) focused internally • Army given prominence over Navy

• 1991 – U.S. bases voted closed • Philippine Senate refuses to ratify the Treaty of

Friendship, Peace, and Cooperation • Status of Forces agreement expires 1995

• 2014 – Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed with U.S.

• Foreign policy mostly oriented towards the U.S. in three pillars: • Preservation & enhancement of national security • Protection of the rights and promotion of the

welfare of overseas Filipinos • Promotion and attainment of economic security

South China/West Philippine Sea

• Control of Scarborough Shoal • Gray hulls vs White hulls

• Lack of naval assets in the Philippines

• Triple Action Plan (TAP) at ASEAN • relying on international law

• Initiated case against the nine dash line before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague

• Limited progress made with Hu Jintao has been squelched by hardliner Xi Jinping

• Philippine government not known for consistency on policy in ASEAN • Now seeking closer ties with U.S. and Vietnam

• NYT “Shark & Minnow” interactive article http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/

Questions to consider…

1) What are the historical grievances rooted in the divide between Mindanao

and the national government?

2) What are the prospects for peace and improving governance?

3) What strategies should the Philippines embrace in its pursuit of development?

4) How do the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific effect Philippine development?