*Chapter 1 - Entering a new world

*Scientists horrified by glacier melt acceleration

*In 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from 1.5’ to 6’ by century’s end – 4X UNDERESTIMATE

*Ice flow speed exceeds anything the scientists imagined

*Asia’s primary glacier is melting faster than imaginable – could disappear in decades

*Asia’s glaciers are Asia’s Agricultural Reservoir

* Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time.

*shrinking forests

*expanding deserts

*falling water tables

*collapsing fisheries

*disappearing species

*rising temperatures

*Greenland Ice Sheet melt rises see 23’

*W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19’

*33’ Sea level rise –

*6oo million refugees - twice US population

* Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping points

*Will Greenland melting become irreversible?

*Or will we phase out coal power plants fast enough?

* There are many environmental tipping points

*Water is running out world wide

*Will we stabilize population?

*Or watch death and wars over water?

*Demographic trap –

*Poverty begets population growth and

*Population growth begets poverty

*Countries collapse under these unresolved problems – Failing States

* Failing States – Early Sign of Failing Civilization

*Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti…

*List grows Every year

*Civilization fails after how many states fail?

*MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING US

*World bank Economist Nicholas Study

*MARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC COSTS

*TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

*MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURY

*Enterprise 20 fold

*Population 4 fold

*We now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources

* Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COAL

*NEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET – ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS

*SOUND DECISIONS CAN’T BE MADE – MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF PRODUCT

*THREATENING CIVILIZATION

* MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIES

*Natures contribution

*Destruction of the environment

*Future costs to Future generations

*Examples in US

*Gas price in 2007 $3 / gal

*ONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICE

*HIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE –

*Environmental destruction

*Military costs

*Health costs

*Blood of our soldiers

*Global / Mid East animosity to US

*$12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!!

*MARKET SAYS IT IS CHEEP!!!!

*MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMS

*MUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY

* EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS

*1998

*China’s Yangtze River Valley

*400 people’s home

*Worst flooding in history - $30 billion cost

*Cost exceeded total value of rice harvest

*CHINA THEN BANNED LOGGING THERE

*TREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT – FLOOD CONTROL SERVICES

*MARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!

* ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY

*7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001

*THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS…

*Co HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE BOOK

*ENRON WAS WORTHLESS

*$90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER SHARE

*COLLAPSE WAS COMPLETE

*IT NO LONGER EXISTS

*WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKS

*IF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSE

*We need CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!

* THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIES

*TREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED

* EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLE

*ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

*Iceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by restricting herd size to sustainable levels

*Samaria BC destroyed itself by destroying its cropland

*The Mayan civilization destroyed itself by destroying its environment – trees, causing erosion, killing food supply

*Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century…

*GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions

*2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900 economy

*earth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not increased

*Economy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental capacity to support it.

*1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE CAPACITY!

*WE’RE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%

* WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR

CHILDREN’S RESOURCES

*OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCES

*Climate hospitable for agriculture

*Hydrological processes for water

*Geological processes producing soil

*Forests are shrinking

*Grasslands turning to desert

*Pumping underground water depleting available supply

*WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS.

*Forests

*Oceans

*Wetlands

* EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE…

*water purification,

*pollination,

*carbon sequestration,

*flood control,

*soil conservation

* 15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits

*40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems

*1360 scientists

*¾ Fisheries collapsing

* TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURN

*Rainforests 20% cleared so far

*Cattle

*Soybean Farming

*22% degraded by road building and forestry

*Desert will result if they burn

*Roughly 100 BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.

*Overconsumption is collapsing Global –

*Forests

*Fisheries

*Wells, Water supplies

* Resource collapse creates refugees

* China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDE

*China has 4x the population of US

*China consumes more resources than the US

*Grain, meat, steel

*1/3 more grain

*Double US meat consumption

*3x steel

* What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption? Expected by 2030

*GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced worldwide per day

*1.1 BILLION CARS – world currently has 860m

*Needing roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area

*98 million barrels per day – MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY – THE EXPECTED PEAK.

* THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALL

*Fossil Fuel Based

*Auto centric

*Throw away

*IF IT WON’T WORK FOR CHINA IT WON’T WORK FOR INDIA

*India may have bigger population than China

*Won’t work for 3 billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class

* OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES

*Renewable energy

*Diversified transportation

*Reuse and recycling of everything

*WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY

*DO WE HAVE THE WILL?

*Governments collapse when

*Can’t provide food

*Can’t provide security

*Education

*Health care

*Lose credibility

*Lose revenues

*Societies fragment

*Wars ensue

*Nations come to fear warring states

*Become hotbeds for terrorism and drugs

* Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY

*Lack healthcare

*Become sources of global disease

*Non-state governments emerge

*Warlords emerge, Clans

*Estimated 20-47 failing Countries

*[insert chart]

* State Failure usually causes environmental destruction

*Deforestation

*Desertification

*Soil erosion

*Shrinkage of cropland and water per person

*Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each other

*Donors avoid for security reasons

*State failure spills over into the region dragging it down

*Rwanda, Sudan…

* Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needs

*Controlling spread of infectious diseases

*Maintaining raw material flows

*Disrupt local economic progress

* URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTS

*Shrinking species populations beyond recovery

*Over-fishing

*Social tipping points

*Single issues or simultaneous multiple threats

*Economically advanced can handle it, but not underdeveloped

*Advanced countries controlled AIDS

*Not the underdeveloped countries

*20% or more adults in some countries infected

*Unsupportable population growth

*Mideast and Africa

*78 million new people per year

*Growth is in countries least able to support them

* Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmed

*Falling water tables

*Expected – policy would stabilize aquifers

*NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS YET DONE SO

*Cutting carbon is obviously necessary

*NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS DONE IT YET

*WILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA?

*Decline in oil production

*Only 2 countries are planning for it!!!

* These problems can lead to failure of Civilization

*Analyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systems

*Food Security is most crucial and revealing

*Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growth

*Falling water tables

*Converting crop land to other uses

*Extreme climate events

*Heat waves

*Droughts

*Floods

*WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW

*2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES TRIPLED

*SURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING

*US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OIL

*UP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUEL

*DRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED HIGHS

*UNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITY

*STATES FAILING

* STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTED

*ON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO IT

*NOW WE HAVE MULTIPLE

*NOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER

* Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political Correctness

*Requires attacking on multiple fronts

*Ending poverty

* Stabilizing population

*Restoring earths natural systems

*Cutting carbon 80% by 2020

* Efficiency

* Renewable sources

*Scale and speed – must be wartime speed

*Restructuring of the world economy commensurate with WWII economy restructuring

*Cars were banned for 3 years

* Extraordinary challenge – much hope

*We have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGY

*EVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHERE

*Advanced Wind Towers can equal the energy of an oil well

*Japanese refrigerators use 12% the power of those a decade ago

*Today’s hybrid cars – 50 mpg – 50% more efficient

*Examples of what is possible

*Denmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60%

*60m Europeans get electricity from wind

*40m Chinese getting hot water from rooftop heaters

*Iceland – 90% of homes geothermal heated

*India using dairy based on crop residue – 4x milk production – world’s biggest milk producer

*China fish farming – using advanced carp – first country with farm fish exceeding natural – 1/3 of world’s oceanic fish catch

*Examples of what is possible

*South Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zero

*US – in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas 40%

*US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 years

*Curitiba, Brazil since 1974 – Population tripled while traffic 30% reduction

*Amsterdam – advanced urban transport – 30% by bikes

*Paris transportation diversification headed toward 40% reduction in traffic

*London uses taxes for traffic reduction

* New technologies available permitting new outcomes

*Plug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon’

* THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

*NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

*THEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE

*WORLD’S IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE’VE PUT IN MOTION

* PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED

* Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants

* IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMY

*We could breathe clean air

*Cities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilized

*Expanding forests

*Falling carbon emission

*The challenge of our generation is a renewable economy

*We all depend on the same grain, same resources

*Reuse and Recycle Everything

*Plan A is destroying the economic supports

*Plan B

*Stabilizing Climate

*Stabilizing Population

*Eradicating Poverty

*Restoring Eco Systems

*Cut carbon dioxide by 80% by 2020

*Climate Initiative

*Raise efficiency

*Renewable energy

*Restore forests

*Race between tipping points

*Phasing out coal plants or do glaciers melt first

*Can we raise the political will in time

*Can we stabilize population before too late

* Slight hope – Citizens are stopping US coal plants

*Needs to expand

*Needs to phase out existing plants

*Wind power

*Scale is expanding

*Texas is leading the wind farm expansions

*23 coal plants equivalent

*Plug in hybrids now coming to markets

*We have the technology

*We need to raise the will

* If you don’t study, learn, and spread Plan B 3.0… Why?

*www.earthpolicy.org