planning for electricity access - world...

1 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s

THE BOTTOM LINE

that “electricity for all” campaigns around the globe often fall short of their targets is partly a failure of planning. in the area of generation and transmission, technical changes could improve the handling of key constraints, such as fuel availability, funding, and the rate of building. Planning for distribution networks could be improved by gathering data on end-use demand and deploying geospatial tools. Most important of all, the entire planning process—from generation to distribution—must be better coordinated if access plans are to be successful.

2014/35

A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E

Planning for Electricity Access Why is this issue important?

Better planning can improve the success rate of programs to expand access to electricity

With about 1.2 billion people around the world still lacking electricity, access to reliable power remains a global development challenge. However, “Electricity for All” programs in many countries of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are behind schedule. India, for example, had originally set the goal of achieving 100 percent electrification by 2012, but a quarter of its population, or more than 300 million people, are still without access to any form of modern energy services.1 The new government has recently announced a revised target of 2022. In Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly 600 million people—two-thirds of the region’s total population—and 10 million small and medium-sized enterprises have no access to electricity. Per capita electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) averages only about 124 kWh a year, barely 1 percent of typical consumption in high-income countries and hardly enough to power one light bulb per person for six hours a day. The region (again excluding South Africa) consumes as much electricity each year as the state of New York (IEA 2010).

Lack of access to modern energy services is a major impediment to efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It impedes education—for example, because children are unable to study at night—and saps productivity and competitiveness because businesses, markets, and clinics must restrict their operating hours.

Solving the problem is not a simple matter. The level of effort needed to enhance access is immense. Notwithstanding significant

1 The failure to meet targets in India and many other countries can be tracked to generation and fuel supply constraints that were overlooked or ignored when targets were set.

progress made between 1990 and 2010, the pace of electrification must double in order to reach 100 percent electrification by 2030— a goal set by the United Nations General Assembly in 2012 (World Bank 2013). And, ironically, achieving meaningful improvement in energy access will require raising the very low per capita consump-tion targets that are often part of Electricity for All programs (Bazilian and Pielke 2013).

Finally, more extensive and realistic planning that takes into account physical, financial, and institutional constraints—will be needed to improve the effectiveness of electricity access programs by devising a technology mix and schedule that are more likely to be achievable. There is also ample room for better planning to select the best mix of grid and off-grid distribution.

This note highlights the importance of coordinating planning activities across the electricity supply chain from generation to demand, including new connections, to better plan for electricity access.

What is the key challenge?

Electricity planning in most developing nations suffers from common shortcomings

Planning for generation and transmission typically includes preparation of a master plan every three to five years, comple-mented in many cases by annual or biannual national plans from the energy ministry. Most such plans—which are too often based on the aspirations of governments and on political considerations—have done no more than provide a broad guide, typically a schedule for the installation of additional capacity that quickly proves overopti-mistic and falls behind for lack of investment. Planning in Bangladesh and India, for instance, has not reflected the serious primary energy

Debabrata Chattopadhyay is a senior energy specialist in the World Bank’s Energy

and Extractives Global Practice.

Rahul Kitchlu is an energy specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice (Africa Unit).

Rhonda L. Jordan is an energy specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice.

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“Off-grid programs are

too often introduced

with the unexamined

assumption that the grid

will not reach parts of the

country for many years

and that the per capita

power consumption of

low-income households

will remain at a subsistence

level.”

crunch that has cut back gas and coal generation. Assumptions about the rate at which generation and transmission assets will be built have almost never been met in either country. As generation lags behind, transmission and distribution assets go underused and access to electricity is not expanded.

The off-grid programs (such as solar home systems) that have emerged to fill the vacuum are relatively expensive, have their own share of problems of reliability and quality, and ultimately do not expand access beyond basic household needs. Although such approaches may be a necessary part of an overall access plan, they are too often introduced with the unexamined assumption that the grid will not reach parts of the country for many years and that the per capita power consumption of low-income households will remain at a subsistence level. There are some exceptions. Bangladesh’s solar-home-system program has filled an important niche in face of severely constrained electricity supply. Off-grid programs implemented by the private sector on market principles are more sustainable than similar programs operated by grid utilities with capital and operating subsidies. But when they are implemented outside the purview of grid utilities, the latter cannot integrate them into their planning.

Planning of distribution systems is limited or nonexistent in most countries, even among the top-performing state utilities. Insufficient information on existing and new customers (including off-grid demand) makes it impossible to estimate future demand. Decisions about grid extension and off-grid electrification are driven by policy targets, with only limited planning and analysis to guide the operation of the system (World Bank 2014), the selection of transmission and distribution components, and the optimization of grid extension with off-grid solutions. An assumption typically implicit in planning of distribution assets is that the available supply of electricity will be adequate, which is not necessarily true. When supply proves inadequate, the utility usually ends up buying power at an exorbitant rate, building small and expensive diesel-powered generation plants or falling back on solar home systems and other off-grid solutions. Meanwhile, firms expand their reliance on back-up generation.

In short, even when rural electrification programs succeed in erecting poles and wires, supply in many cases has been too unreli-able to provide meaningful service, especially for economic activities.

What solutions are available?

More ground-level data and better coordination of planning processes will improve outcomes

Traditional planning tools and processes in electricity generation and high-voltage transmission are generally adequate but could be improved to better capture constraints that either were historically absent (for example, the intermittency of certain renewables) or were not binding enough to invalidate planning outcomes (for example, the supply of gas and oil). Bangladesh presents an example where the planning studies undertaken in 2005 largely missed the impend-ing gas shortage, anticipating more than 21 GW of new gas-based capacity in the base case (NEXANT 2005/06). The subsequent master plan developed in 2010 corrected for this problem to some extent (JICA 2011). The resulting plan was much more diversified, with domestic and imported coal accounting for more than half of the planned capacity.

Much better coordination of generation and transmission is needed, especially as power networks in the developing world become more interconnected (within regions of a single country, between countries, or among several countries in a given region).2 Similar enhancements are needed to anticipate and account for cross-border power trading, where this already exists or may be advantageous. India’s Central Electricity Authority has for decades relied on a sequential planning process that tailors transmission to generation without placing sufficient emphasis on grid-reinforcement projects that could reduce the need for peaking generation in some parts of the network. In its latest national electricity plan, the author-ity partly remedied the problem by developing subregional grids to reduce system costs (CEA 2012). Recent planning efforts in India demonstrate a more explicit recognition of the additional investment needed for grid reinforcement. However, recognition remains limited of cross-border power trading opportunities that could help India address the problem of access to electricity.

Finally, the forecasting of demand must be drastically improved. Historically, demand for electricity has been assumed to correlate strongly with economic growth. While the gross domestic product

2 Such coordination between generation and transmission is not easy to achieve because of increasing institutional separation and because financing may come from different sources.


“Decisions about grid

extension and off-grid

electrification are driven

by policy targets, with

only limited planning

and analysis to guide the

operation of the system.

And planning of distribution

systems is virtually

nonexistent in most

countries, even among

the top-performing state

utilities.”

provides a helpful guide to aggregate demand, “hot spots” often are not captured. Accurate demand estimates depend on realistic estimates of disaggregated demand, including suppressed demand. Preparing such forecasts may involve a significantly higher level of effort. But as the work by Parshall and others (2009) and ongoing work at the Columbia University Sustainable Engineering Lab (http://sel.columbia.edu/projects/) make clear, this approach has the potential, by integrating network planning with demographic data, to produce realistic supply plans and to blur, to the extent possible, the boundaries between distribution and upstream generation and transmission.

New bottom-up approaches for demand estimates, such as planning tools based on geospatial data, should be incorporated wherever the requisite information is available or can be developed with relatively little effort. This is particularly important in planning distribution networks. With bottom-up approaches, planners can gather substantially more information on customers (for example, the location and income level of households) and then use structured analysis to gain a detailed view of demand and, on the basis of that analysis, decide on the best way to extend the grid or to rely on off-grid solutions, as the case may be.3 The costs of connecting new customers to the grid must be properly accounted for in determining the best course of action. Where those costs are underestimated, superior off-grid solutions may be undermined.

The importance of strategic and operational planning has been recognized in the last decade. Hawkins (2007, 2009) presented early ideas for improving distribution-network planning using General Electric’s SmallWorld software. Introduced in 2009/10, SmallWorld (GE 2010) uses spatial information to help planners understand where new networks should be targeted, where additional investment is required to meet forecasted demand for capacity, and where a business justification for investments in network upgrades may be needed. Network companies and distribution utilities in developed countries have begun to rely on these tools to support the business cases they present to regulators.

The concept of planning based on geographic information systems (GIS) has also been applied in developing nations such as

3 Again, the efforts and costs involved in developing GIS datasets and tools can be quite extensive, especially in a developing country. Nevertheless, geospatial planning has been suc-cessfully implemented in several developing nations, as discussed further on.

Kenya to gather and analyze information on where and how people live so as to improve their access to services and markets (Parshall and others 2009). Min and others (2013) report findings of a World Bank–funded research effort to use night-imagery data gathered by the U.S. Air Force’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program to monitor power consumption in more than a thousand villages in Senegal and Mali. This is a relatively new but promising area in which significant effort is needed to develop and integrate the necessary data across jurisdictions to improve system-level planning and merge traditional engineering-focused methods of distribution planning with geospatial planning. For more examples of research on geospatial applications to power-system planning, see box 1.

Ideally, geospatial planning tools should be developed not at the utility level but at the national level. The scale of such an operation, including the need for coordination across relevant sectors (water, electricity, roads, telecommunications) poses a significant challenge. Real-life implementation of geospatial planning has tended to focus on individual sectors and to be confined to relatively small areas within a country. In an ongoing World Bank project in Nigeria, a geo-spatial least-cost model is being developed for a small region within the country by digitizing the existing grid network and overlaying it with technical, demographic, and economic data. The technical data elements needed for efficient distribution network planning analysis are digital mapping of the grid network and information on demand, supply (load), and resource availability. Necessary demographic data include population density and growth patterns (urban and rural sprawl), and social institutions (health centers, schools, government offices). Also needed are data on customers’ ability and willingness to pay for electricity based on poverty trends, household incomes and expenditures, and commercial and industrial activity. This extensive data set is created using simple and modern mapping techniques based on a GIS-embedded global positioning system.

The critical areas in which planning must improve if it is to address access in a rigorous way are summarized in figure 1.

Before sound distribution planning can be initiated, generation and transmission planners must have access to bottom-up forecasts that capture realistic demand and supply inputs. Planners need to realize that, to be meaningful and sustainable, access to electricity should be conceived not as a steady state of subsistence consump-tion but rather in terms of rising demand over time (World Bank 2013;

http://sel.columbia.edu/projects/

http://sel.columbia.edu/projects/


“By combining GIS-based

data with conventional

distribution-network

planning tools (such

as load-flow software),

designs for distribution

networks can be made

to reflect real conditions

on the ground and thus

provide guidance on the

best way to enhance

access.”

Bazilian and Pielke 2013). They should also realize that generation and transmission plans have often failed to recognize constraints on the growth of generating capacity.

Planning of the medium- and low-voltage (MV/LV) distribution network, in turn, should be based on the forecast availability of electricity at the substation level for the forecast years. The level of availability will drive decisions to extend the grid or to rely on off-grid solutions. An important element in such planning is the extent of locally available renewable resources that may either be connected to the grid or become part of off-grid solutions (mini- and microgrids). Excellent planning tools, such as HOMER (http://www.homerenergy.com/), are available to help planners make the right decisions. By combining GIS-based data with conventional distribution-network planning tools (such as load-flow software), designs for distribution networks can be made to reflect real conditions on the ground and thus provide guidance on the best way to enhance access (Hawkins 2007, 2009).

Although not explicitly the focus of this note, the commercial viability of distribution companies, especially in countries where utilities have been privatized, is an important aspect of effective planning. Least-cost approaches, properly used, can help maintain the financial health of the sector, while incorporating affordability and other sociopolitical objectives through a system of graduated tariffs and subsidies. Once technical aspects are identified and planned, private distribution companies can be incentivized to make invest-ments in infrastructure such as substations, transformers, MV/LV line extensions, and so on, through a system of capital subsidies using a combination of direct subsidies (capital buydowns), indirect subsidies (tax credits, amortization allowances, trade and import incentives), and output-based allocations (connection subsidies). Targeted support (such as for pro-poor and gender-based policies) can be offered to distribution companies to recover the ongoing cost of supply and maintenance of assets through a combination of direct tariff subsidies (for households that consume small amounts of power) or cross-sub-sidization by consumers of larger amounts of power.

Box 1. Major research efforts in geospatial planning

Despite promising beginnings, geospatial planning is still in the research and development stage. These three research groups are among those most active in the area:

• The Earth Institute at Columbia University has undertaken significant geospatial planning exercises over the past 10 years in several countries of Africa, Asia, and Oceania—including India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Kenya (Parshall and others 2009); Liberia (Modi and others 2009); and Senegal. Under the leadership of Professor Vijay Modi, the Earth Institute is also implementing an ongoing Bank-supported program in Nigeria that is piloting geospatial least-cost planning in selected distribution zones while ensuring that the sector master plan is developed and updated in coordination with the distribution plan.

• Professor Ignacio Perez-Arriaga of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Universidad Pontifícia de Comillas is currently undertaking research on a comprehensive modeling framework to combine GIS data on households, a “reference electricity model” for the design of networks, and an energy planning model to analyze the impact of access policies across the economy (Perez-Arriaga 2014).

• KTH Division of Energy Systems analysis (KTH/dESA), under the leadership of Professor Mark Howells, has performed analyses based on geospatial planning for the 2015 World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency. Their recent work in Nigeria, for example, includes an extensive analysis of high- and medium-voltage network expansion compared with off-grid solutions (Howells 2014).

http://www.homerenergy.com/

http://www.homerenergy.com/


“Future R&D efforts should

be directed not only at

enhancing specialized

tools, but at improving

how those tools can be

effectively coordinated to

support the development

and execution of a long-

term access strategy.”

Figure 1. Planning framework for electricity access

Source: World Bank.

Inte

grat

ion

Demand informed by bottom-up forecasts

Realistic constraints on investment, primary resources, rate of build, intermittency of renewables, policy targets, etc.

Detailed demographic data

Realistic constraints on investment, availability, uncertainties around generation development, right-of-way, and cross-border power trading across countries/regions

Generation plan

Bottom-up GIS-baseddemand forecast

Geospatial medium/lowvoltage network plan

High voltage transmissiongrid plan

Consideration of proximity to grid, economies of scale in MV/LV/Single-Wire-Earth Return Local renewable resources availableOff-grid options available

What have we learned?

Understanding demand and integrated planning are the royal road to expanding access to electricity

The persistent failure of “electricity for all” campaigns around the globe to meet their targets demonstrates that increasing access to electricity is a challenge not fully understood. Institutional weak-nesses, political interference, and the need for financing have all been identified as components of the challenge. But sound technical planning deserves no less attention. Even in the mature area of planning for generation and transmission, where the key ingredients already exist for better planning, small changes could improve the prospects of success of efforts to widen access to electricity. Defter handling of key constraints, such as fuel availability, funding, and the rate of building, would allow generation and transmission master plans to better guide access strategies. There is an equally pressing

need to improve the planning of distribution networks by deploying geospatial tools to gather and analyze data on end-use demand.

Most essential of all, the generation, transmission, and distribu-tion components need to be well coordinated if access plans are to be meaningful. No universally agreed methodology or planning tool yet exists to facilitate the necessary coordination. Future R&D efforts, as well as project planning by the World Bank and other donors, should be directed not only at enhancing specialized planning tools, but at improving how those tools can be effectively coordinated to support the development and execution of a long-term access strategy. A more holistic approach to project planning would seem to be indicated, both nationally and from the World Bank’s perspective. Small, individual Bank projects probably will not be as effective in widening access to electricity as a continuous project that supports GIS system development over a period of, say, 10 years.


Available tools, properly used, can also inform policy interven-tions by governments and support the mobilization of resources (public, private, and donor-funded) behind access initiatives. There are many potential impediments to successful implementation of such initiatives, including political and social barriers. But a case backed by scientific data, rigorously gathered, will always have a better chance of overcoming these barriers.

References

ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2014. “Quantum Leap in Wind Power Development in Asia and Pacific.” Manila. Philippines. http://www.adb.org/projects/44489-012/main.

Bazilian, M., and R. Pielke. 2013. “Making Energy Access Meaningful.” Issues in Science and Technology (Summer). Also available at http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.22.pdf.

CEA (Central Electricity Authority). 2012. National Electricity Plan. Vols. 1 (Generation) and 2 (Transmission). New Delhi. http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/ generation_12.pdf; http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/transmission_12.pdf.

General Electric. 2010. “Utility and Telecommunication Solutions: Electric Utility Solutions.” Available at https://www.gedigitalen-ergy.com/geospatial/elecutil_solutions.htm.

Hawkins, D. 2007. “An Integrated Planning, Design, and Analysis Environment for New Distributed Generation Connections.” Presentation at 19th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Vienna, Austria.

———. 2009. “An Integrated MV Distributed Generation Connection Planning Tool.” Presentation at 19th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Prague.

Howells, M., 2014. “Status Report for WEO 2015 Chapter 3.” Unpublished report prepared for World Energy Outlook 2015, forthcoming, International Energy Agency, Paris.

Min, B., K. M. Gaba, O. F. Sarr, and A. Agalassou. 2013. “Detection of Rural Electrification in Africa Using DMSP-OLD Nightlights Imagery.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 34 (22): 8118–41.

Modi, V., E. Adkins, J. Carbajal, and S. Sherpa. 2009. “National Electricity Master Plan for Liberia.” Available at http://modi.mech.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/LiberiaEnergySectorReform_Phase4Report-Final_2013-08.pdf.

Nexant. 2005. “Power System Master Plan.” Prepared for the Power Cell under ADB TA-4379 BAN. Dhaka, Bangladesh.

JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). 2011. “Power System Master Plan 2010.” Final report of project to develop 2010 master plan for Bangladesh power system. Tokyo. February.

Parshall, L., D. Pillai, S. Moha, A. Sahoy, and V. Modi. 2009. “National Electricity Planning in Settings with Low Pre-Existing Grid Coverage: Development of a Spatial Model and Case Study of Kenya.” Energy Policy 37: 2395–2410.

Perez-Arriaga, I., Y. Borofsky, D. Ellman, A. Gonzalez, and C. Vergara. 2014. “Planning Models for Rural Electrification Using the Reference Electrification Model (REM) to Expand Electricity Access.” Presentation to Tata Centre, India. August.

World Bank. 2013. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for All Program. Washington DC. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report

World Bank. 2014. “India: Powering a 21st Century Nation.” Review and discussion of S. Pargal and S. G. Banerjee, More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution. Report 88906. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/06/24/india-powering-a-21st-century-nation.

The authors would like to thank Morgan Bazilian and Vivien Foster for reviewing an early draft of this note and offering several helpful suggestions.

MAKE FURTHER CONNECTIONS

live Wire 2014/1. “transmitting renewable Energy to the grid,” by Marcelino Madrigal and rhonda lenai Jordan.

live Wire 2014/9. “tracking access to Electricity,” by sudeshna ghosh Banerjee and Elisa Portale.

live Wire 2014/16. “capturing the Multi-Dimensionality of Energy access,” by Mikul Bhatia and nicolina angelou.

live Wire 2014/17. “incorporating Energy from renewable resources into Power system Planning,” by Marcelino Madrigal and rhonda lenai Jordan.

http://www.adb.org/projects/44489-012/main

http://www.adb.org/projects/44489-012/main

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.22.pdf

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.22.pdf

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/generation_12.pdf

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/generation_12.pdf

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/transmission_12.pdf

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/transmission_12.pdf

https://www.gedigitalenergy.com/geospatial/elecutil_solutions.htm

https://www.gedigitalenergy.com/geospatial/elecutil_solutions.htm

http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report

http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/06/24/india-powering-a-21st-century-nation

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/06/24/india-powering-a-21st-century-nation

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1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s T o w a r d P r o v i d i n g s u s T a i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T a s i a a n d T h e Pa c i f i c

THE BOTTOM LINE

where does the region stand

on the quest for sustainable

energy for all? in 2010, eaP

had an electrification rate of

95 percent, and 52 percent

of the population had access

to nonsolid fuel for cooking.

consumption of renewable

energy decreased overall

between 1990 and 2010, though

modern forms grew rapidly.

energy intensity levels are high

but declining rapidly. overall

trends are positive, but bold

policy measures will be required

to sustain progress.

2014/28

Elisa Portale is an

energy economist in

the Energy Sector

Management Assistance

Program (ESMAP) of the

World Bank’s Energy and Extractives

Global Practice.

Joeri de Wit is an

energy economist in

the Bank’s Energy and

Extractives Global

Practice.


Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy

for All in East Asia and the Pacific

Why is this important?

Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring

the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All

(SE4ALL) initiative

In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for

All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be

accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy

services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global

energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy

efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).

The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting

their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall

spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability

to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress

in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their

respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on

the resources and support that they are able to marshal.

To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL

objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed.

The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor-

tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global

Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular

global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available

1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access

to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels,

and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions”

refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas),

or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of

liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org).

databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame-

work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of

the GTF in 2015.

The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to

track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below.

• Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured

by the percentage of the population with an electricity

connection and the percentage of the population with access

to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household

surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification

Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy

Database.

• Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the

energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy

consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources.

Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy

balances published by the International Energy Agency and the

United Nations.

• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency

is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total

primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP)

measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to

calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances

published by the International Energy Agency and the United

Nations.

2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural

and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and

other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite).

1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T e r n e u r o P e a n d c e n T r a l a s i a

THE BOTTOM LINE



energy for all? The region

has near-universal access to

electricity, and 93 percent of

the population has access


despite relatively abundant

hydropower, the share

of renewables in energy

consumption has remained

relatively low. very high energy

intensity levels have come

down rapidly. The big questions

are how renewables will evolve

when energy demand picks up

again and whether recent rates

of decline in energy intensity

will continue.

2014/29

Elisa Portale is an

energy economist in

the Energy Sector




Global Practice.

Joeri de Wit is an

energy economist in


Extractives Global

Practice.



for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia




(SE4ALL) initiative


All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives

to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern

energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in

the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement

in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).






















the GTF in 2015.



Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured

by the percentage of the population with an electricity connection

and the percentage of the population with access to nonsolid fuels.2

These data are collected using household surveys and reported

in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database and the World

Health Organization’s Household Energy Database.

Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the energy

mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy consumption

that is derived from renewable energy resources. Data used to

calculate this indicator are obtained from energy balances published

by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations.

Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency is

approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy

intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy

consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchas-

ing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity

are obtained from energy balances published by the International

Energy Agency and the United Nations.

This note uses data from the GTF to provide a regional and

country perspective on the three pillars of SE4ALL for Eastern




“Live Wire is designed

for practitioners inside

and outside the Bank.

It is a resource to

share with clients and

counterparts.”

8 D o y o u h a v E s o M E t h i n g t o s ay ? s ay i t i n l i v E W i r E !

1 U n d e r s t a n d i n g C O 2 e m i s s i O n s f r O m t h e g l O b a l e n e r g y s e C t O r

Understanding CO2 Emissions from the Global Energy Sector

Why is this issue important?

Mitigating climate change requires knowledge of the

sources of CO2 emissions

Identifying opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse gases

requires a clear understanding of the main sources of those emis-

sions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for more than 80 percent of

total greenhouse gas emissions globally,1 primarily from the burning

of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The energy sector—defined to include

fuels consumed for electricity and heat generation—contributed 41

percent of global CO2 emissions in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related

CO2 emissions at the point of combustion make up the bulk of such

emissions and are generated by the burning of fossil fuels, industrial

waste, and nonrenewable municipal waste to generate electricity

and heat. Black carbon and methane venting and leakage emissions

are not included in the analysis presented in this note.

Where do emissions come from?

Emissions are concentrated in a handful of countries

and come primarily from burning coal

The geographical pattern of energy-related CO2 emissions closely

mirrors the distribution of energy consumption (figure 2). In 2010,

almost half of all such emissions were associated with the two

largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters

were associated with the top six emitting countries. Of the remaining

energy-related CO2 emissions, about 8 percent were contributed

by other high-income countries, another 15 percent by other

1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Data—Comparisons By Gas (database). http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3800.php

middle-income countries, and only 0.5 percent by all low-income

countries put together.

Coal is, by far, the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions

globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3).

This reflects both the widespread use of coal to generate electrical

power, as well as the exceptionally high CO2 intensity of coal-fired

power (figure 4). Per unit of energy produced, coal emits significantly

more CO2 emissions than oil and more than twice as much as natural

gas.

2014/5

THE BOTTOM LINE

the energy sector contributes

about 40 percent of global

emissions of CO2. three-

quarters of those emissions

come from six major

economies. although coal-fired

plants account for just

40 percent of world energy

production, they were

responsible for more than

70 percent of energy-sector

emissions in 2010. despite

improvements in some

countries, the global CO2

emission factor for energy

generation has hardly changed

over the last 20 years.

Vivien Foster is sector

manager for the Sus-

tainable Energy Depart-

ment at the World Bank

([email protected]).

Daron Bedrosyan

works for London

Economics in Toronto.

Previously, he was an

energy analyst with the

World Bank’s Energy Practice.

A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y P R A C T I C E

Figure 1. CO2 emissions

by sector

Figure 2. energy-related CO2

emissions by country

Energy41%

Roadtransport

16%

Othertransport

6%

Industry20%

Residential6%

Othersectors

10%China30%

USA19%

EU11%

India7%

Russia7%

Japan 4%

Other HICs8%

Other MICs15%

LICs0.5%

Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy sector at the point

of combustion. Other Transport includes international marine and aviation bunkers, domestic

aviation and navigation, rail and pipeline transport; Other Sectors include commercial/public

services, agriculture/forestry, fishing, energy industries other than electricity and heat genera-

tion, and other emissions not specified elsewhere; Energy = fuels consumed for electricity and

heat generation, as defined in the opening paragraph. HIC, MIC, and LIC refer to high-, middle-,

and low-income countries.

Source: IEA 2012a.

1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T e r n e u r o P e a n d c e n T r a l a s i a

THE BOTTOM LINE



energy for all? The region

has near-universal access to

electricity, and 93 percent of

the population has access


despite relatively abundant

hydropower, the share

of renewables in energy

consumption has remained

relatively low. very high energy

intensity levels have come

down rapidly. The big questions

are how renewables will evolve

when energy demand picks up

again and whether recent rates

of decline in energy intensity

will continue.

2014/29

Elisa Portale is an

energy economist in

the Energy Sector




Global Practice.

Joeri de Wit is an

energy economist in


Extractives Global

Practice.



for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia




(SE4ALL) initiative


All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives

to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern

energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in

the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement

in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).






















the GTF in 2015.



Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured

by the percentage of the population with an electricity connection

and the percentage of the population with access to nonsolid fuels.2

These data are collected using household surveys and reported

in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database and the World

Health Organization’s Household Energy Database.

Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the energy

mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy consumption

that is derived from renewable energy resources. Data used to

calculate this indicator are obtained from energy balances published

by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations.

Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency is

approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy

intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy

consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchas-

ing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity

are obtained from energy balances published by the International

Energy Agency and the United Nations.

This note uses data from the GTF to provide a regional and

country perspective on the three pillars of SE4ALL for Eastern




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