plant diseases in a changing climate – approaches to assess … · plant diseases in a changing...
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Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology and Crop Protection Division, Georg-August University Göttingen,
Germany
Andreas von Tiedemann et al.
Plant diseases in a changing climate – approaches to assess and estimate future crop risks
International Conference on Crop Losses, Paris, 16-18 October 2017
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
The disease triangle
Can CC be integrated in that concept and how? -
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Climate change – the last 50,000 years (temperature proxy data from the greenland ice core)
Last Postglacial
Neolithic revolution, Agriculture (10.000 BP)
Behringer, Kulturgeschichte des Klimas, 2010 (adopted from Rahmstorf, 2003)
Years [x1,000] before present
Holocene
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Climate change – the last 100 years (1900-2000 Germany)
Pretzsch et al. Nature Communications, 2014.
Temperature: + 1.0°C
Precipitation - summer: -3% - winter: +19%
CO2: 300 390 ppm
Vegetation period: +22 days
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Anomalies for East Asia, 1901-2002 Piao, S. et al. Global Change Biology, 2011
Negative desertification trend Sahel zone, 1982-2003 Herrmann, S.M., et al. Global Environmental Change, 2005.
Negative desertification trends in China, 1982-1999 Piao, S., et al. Geophysical Research Letters 2005.
Increase in aboveground biomass productivity of Brazilian humid forests since 1958. Phillips, O.L., et al. Science 1998.
Increased tree growth in the last century in N-America (oak, pine) and Europe (beech, spruce, fir) (several papers)
Corn
Wheat
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
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Räder, T., Racca, P., Jörg, E., Hau, B. (2007). PUCREC/PUCTRI - a decision support system for the control of leaf rust of winter wheat and winter rye. OEPP/EPPO (37), 378-382.
Wheat leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) – Environmental drivers
Uredospores
Sporulation on host
Infection
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Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Is climate change …
Secondary climate change impact on crop yield
… modulating severity of pre-existing diseases?
… creating novel pathogens/pathotypes/races?
… driving emergence of diseases in new areas?
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
80-90% of wheat lines susceptible to UG99!
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division, University of Göttingen
20 March 2015: CAUTION – Increasing risk of stripe (yellow) rust outbreaks, North Africa to South Asia Posted on March 20, 2015 by David Hodson - ‘Warrior’: spreading rapidly throughout Europe since
2010; overcomes Yr1,2,3,4,-,6,7,-,9,-,-,17,-,25,-,32,Sp, Avs, Amb; since 2013 in N-Africa, 2014 in W-Asia
- ‘Yr27 virulence’: new aggressive races breaking Yr27 resistance in Europe, Africa, Asia
established in Denmark by the end of 2008, on behalf of CIMMYT, ICARDA and Aarhus University, Denmark
Yellow (stripe) rust since 2014 in Germany, up to 60% yield losses
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Range expansions pests & diseases – causes
First reports of pathogens 2010-2015 (ProMED)
140 new reports
Viruses (36.6%), fungi (28,2%)
Maize (9.1%), banana (8.5%), citrus (7.7%), potato (7.0%)
Bebber, D.P., Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 2015.
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Is climate change …
… modulating severity of pre-existing diseases?
… creating novel pathogens/pathotypes/races? no evidence for direct impact!
… driving emergence of diseases in new areas?
Secondary climate change impact on crop yield
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
As a result of lacking disease control …
- ca. 1 million deaths
- 2.5 million emigrated
Potato late blight and the Great Irish famine 1845-50
1845
From: Agrios, 2005
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
World distribution of coffee rust. (Adapted from Schieber, E. and G.A. Zentmyer. 1984. Coffee rust in the Western Hemisphere. Plant Dis. 68:89-93. Used by permission from P.A. Arneson)
Global Spread of Coffee Rust (Hemileia vastatrix)
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
The three disasters in European vineyards
Powdery mildew (U. necator) 1845 Introduced from N-America
1854 80% Crop loss in France
Phylloxera 1858 Introduction with vines from N-America resistent to mildew
Downy mildew (P. viticola) 1878 Introduced from N-America
1882 ‚Bordeaux mixture‘ (Millardet)
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
History and Dispersal of Fire Blight in N-America and Europe
1780 Hudson Valley
1840 Canada
1888 California
1905 1957 Kent
1966 The Netherlands
1971 Schleswig-Holstein
1993 Lake Constance 1989
Switzerland
© K. Mendgen 2004
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
1930
1998 1997 1993
1999
1986
1898
1987 1988
Spread of Ramularia leaf spots in barley in Europe
( (1898 – 2000; Sachs, 2003)
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
1902
2001
2001
1996
2002
2004
1998 2003
2001
Asian Soybean Rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi)
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Pest/pathogen Spread Causes Downy & powdery mildew grapevine
N-America Europe Introduction by planting/grafting material
Potato late blight Central America Europe Introduction by planting material
Coffee rust E-Africa SE-Asia S/C-America
Introduction by planting material
Wheat stem rust UG99 Uganda Africa Central Asia Race evolution & selection; long distance transport with air streams
Wheat stripe rust Europe, N-Africa, Middle East, India
Race evolution & selection; long distance transport with air streams
Ramularia leaf spots barley
Within Europe, S-America Introduction by seeds (?); over-use of strobilurins
Asian soybean rust China Africa S-America N-America
Introduction; long distance transport with air streams (?)
Verticillium oilseed rape Europe: N S & W & E; Canada
High intensity of OSR production; plant/seed trade (?)
Fire blight apple, pear N-America Europe Introduction with planting material
Range expansion of diseases – cases and causes
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
… examples of climate change driving the emergence of infectious plant diseases have not yet been clearly identified. … … introduction by trade and traffic of alien pathogens or hosts is the most commonly cited driver of emerging infectious diseases. … the increasing volume of globalized trade has driven increased frequency of introduction events. Review: Anderson P. et al., 2004. Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19.
Range expansions pests & diseases – causes
Conclusions on range expansion of pests & pathogens
However: Is there an indirect climate effect on pathogen & pest expansion by shifting cropping zones?
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Range expansion of maize diseases in Germany
Kabatiella zeae Exserohilum turcicum Puccinia sorghi 2012 2013
*
PHD project Lucia Ramos, 2012-2015
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Cerrados
South
Wheat blast (Magnaporthe grisea)
Fusarium ear scab (Fusarium spp.)
ca. 90% of Brazilian wheat production
Range expansion of wheat diseases in Brazil
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Is climate change …
… modulating severity of pre-existing diseases?
… causing emergence of diseases in new areas?
Secondary climate change impact on crop yield
Since historic times, pests and pathogens have followed their crops. At present, introduction, crop area expansion and agrotechnology rather than direct climate effects are the main drivers of emergence of diseases in new areas. However, pathogens appear to be more climate-sensitive than their host crops.
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Biotic stressors Pathogens 25
Insects 27
Nematodes 2
Weeds 37
Regional climate scenarios Reference period: 1971-2000
Shortterm: 2021-2050
Longterm: 2071-2100
(4) Sugar beet
(1) Wheat (2) Oilseed rape
(3) Maize
Crops
2009 - 2014 Climate change effects on agricultural crops in Lower Saxony
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Methodological approaches: Experiments in model systems: Controlled conditions
Modelling: Linking pest & disease models with climate models
Risk analysis & adaptation
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Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Climate change in Lower Saxony
2021-2050 2071-2100
Annual av. temperature +1°C +2.5°C
Vegetation period + 23 days + 60 days
Frost days - 32% - 66%
Snowfall - 30% - 50%
Precipitation + 7% Increase in all seasons
Winter + 19% Spring + 11%
Summer - 10% Autumn +17%
Source: Empfehlung für eine niedersächsische Strategie zur Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels, 2012
Climate change in Lower Saxony simulated by REMO (A1B) and GLM compared to the reference period 1971-2000
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Micro-greenhouses in the field
Climate chambers
Rain simulation in the greenhouse
Miniplot soil heating facility
Weed competition experiments with maize in the greenhouse
Experiments in model systems
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Ambient
Ambient
Ambient
Ambient
+1.6°C
+1.6°C
+1.6°C
+3.2°C
+3.2°C
+3.2°C
+1.6°C +3.2°C
Göttingen Miniplot-Soil Heating Experiment
Warming scenarios for Lower Saxony (2050 and 2100)
Siebold M & A v Tiedemann (2012) Application of a robust experimental method to study soil warming effects on oilseed rape. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 164, 20-28. 27
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Climate chamber: r² = 0.27 Field: r² = 0.17 (n.s.)
Siebold M & A v Tiedemann (2013) Global Change Biology 19, 1736-1747.
Sclerotinia sclerotiorum
T0
T1
T2
T0 = Reference: 1971-2000 T1 = Shortterm: 2021-2050 T2 = Longterm: 2071-2100 DD = degree days, March-May 2011/12
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Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Heros: r² = 0.45 SEM: r² = 0.77 Falcon: r² = 0.67
Siebold M & A v Tiedemann (2013) Global Change Biology 19, 1736-1747.
Verticillium longisporum
T0 T1 T2
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T0 = Reference: 1971-2000 T1 = Shortterm: 2021-2050 T2 = Longterm: 2071-2100 DD = degree days, March-May 2011/12
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Methodological approaches: Experiments in model systems: Controlled conditions
Modelling: Linking pest & disease models with climate models
Risk analysis & adaptation
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Juroszek, P. & A. v. Tiedemann (2015) Linking plant disease models to climate change scenarios to project future risks of crop diseases – a review. Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection 122(1), 3-15. Juroszek, P. & A. v. Tiedemann (2013) Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: A review. European Journal of Plant Pathology 136, 1, 21-33. Juroszek, P. & A. v. Tiedemann (2013) Plant pathogens, insect pests and weeds in a changing global climate – approaches, challenges, research gaps, key studies, and concepts. Journal of Agricultural Science 151, 163-188.
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Modeled agricultural zones in Lower Saxony, Germany
Source of map: Bürger et al. (unpublished)
Region 1: WRa-WW-WW-WB
Region 2:
Maize monoculture Region 3: SB-WW-Potato-WW
Region 4: SB-WW-WW
Region 5: WRa-WW-WW-WB
Sowing dates (same in all regions): ● Wheat: 01.09., 15.09., 15.10., 01.11. (simulated) ● Rapeseed: 15.08., 31.08. (simulated) ● Sugar beet: 15.03., 01.04., 15.04. (simulated) ● Maize: Early April, End of April (expertise-based)
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Counties Maize WW = winter wheat WRa = winter oilseed rape SB = sugar beet Potato
Time horizons: Presence 2021-2050 2071-2100
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
• … relevant changes (>50%) of diseases on leaves only in young growth stages (0-30) and at longterm climate change projections
• … potentially increased leaf diseases in autumn/winter requiring adapted sowing times or earlier fungicide application in spring
• ... shifting of disease prevalences: less powdery mildew, more leaf rust and tan spot
• … no significant changes for stem base and ear diseases
• ... potential shifts in the regional distribution of diseases
Future disease management in winter wheat
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Risk analysis & adaptation
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Is climate change …
Potential climate change impact on crop diseases
… modulating severity of pre-existing diseases?
… causing emergence of diseases in new areas?
Yes, resulting in regional shifts of disease & pest prevalences, but not in an overall risk increase. Modern crop protection technology and monitoring is required to adapt to such shifts, as practiced at present.
Since historic times, pests and pathogens have followed their crops. At present, introduction, crop area expansion and agrotechnology rather than direct climate effects are the main drivers of emergence of diseases in new areas. However, pathogens appear to be more climate-sensitive than their host crops.
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Conclusions for future crop risks
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At present, modern crop protection technology is effective to respond to annual changes in disease & pest incidence. No reason why longterm changes wouldn‘t be manageable.
CC may induce shifts in the regional priority of diseases & pests but will not necessarily cause an overall increase in unmanagable risks.
Like in the past: Agrotechnical progress (cultivars, crop rotation, soil tillage, agrochemicals …), agro-policy and markets are the main drivers of crop diseases. These factors have to be considered first when modelling/predicting future crop risks.
Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Modelled regional climates (REMO, A1B, MPI f. Meteorology, Hamburg)
Region Weather stations (n)
∆ annual mean temperature [°C]*
∆ annual precipitation [mm]
2021-50 2071-100 2021-50 2071-100
1 54 +0,3 +2,7 +37 +110
2 30 +0,3 +2,8 +19 +57
3 15 +0,4 +2,9 +8 +37
4 46 +0,3 +2,9 +4 +40
5 10 +0,3 +3,0 +10 +59
*) based on hourly records, related to the reference period 1971-2000
Year Ann. Temp. [°C] Ann. Precipitation [mm]
2003 9,5 542
2007 10,2 (∆=0.7) 942 (∆=400)
Interannual comparison 2003-2007 (22 locations, Lower Saxony)
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Department of Crop Sciences, Plant Pathology & Crop Protection Division
Acknowledgements
To all partners in the KLIFF consortium (2009-14)
- Paolo Racca & Benno Kleinhenz, ZEPP, Bad-Kreuznach - Peter Juroszek, KLIFF - Joachim Kakau, University of Osnabrück - Magdalena Siebold, University of Göttingen
Ministery of Science and Culture in Lower Saxony for funding