pm40 risk analysis and
DESCRIPTION
performance management and riskTRANSCRIPT
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Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationProject Evaluation
Campbell R. HarveyDuke University
andNational Bureau of Economic Research
Project Appraisal and Risk Management (PARM)Duke Center for International Development at the Sanford Institute May 27-28, 2002
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1. Cash Flow versus Discount Rate
2. Approaches to Cost of Capital Measurement
3. Recommended Framework
4. Comparison of Methods
5. Conversion of Cash Flows
6. Project Specific Adjustments
7. Conclusions
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project EvaluationPlan
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Basic Project Evaluation:• Forecast nominal cash flows
• Currency choice (assume US$)
• Decide what risks will be reflected in cash flows and those in the discount rate– Beware of double discounting
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Simple example:• Assume a simple project with expected
$100 in perpetual cash flows
• If located in the U.S., the discount rate would be 10% and Value= $100/0.10= $1,000
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Simple example:• However, project is not located in the U.S.
but a risky country
• If we reflect the country risk in the discount rate, the rate rises to 20% Value = $100/0.20 = $500
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Simple example:• If we reflect the country risk in the cash
flows, the value is identical Value = $50/0.10 = $500
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Our approach• We will propose methods that deliver
discount rates that reflect country risk.
• As our example showed, it is a simple matter of shifting the country risk from the discount rate to the cash flows.
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Our approach• Indeed, we will often do this.
– That is, we will use quantitative methods to get a measurement of country risk in the discount rate.
– Use the country risk adjustment in the cash flows (and adjust discount rate down accordingly).
– Use Monte Carlo methods on cash flows rather than cash flows and discount rate.
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation1. Cash Flow vs. Discount Rate
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Many different approaches:1. Identical Cost of Capital (all locations)
2. World CAPM or Multifactor Model (Sharpe-Ross)
3. Segmented/Integrated (Bekaert-Harvey)
4. Bayesian (Ibbotson Associates)
5. Country Risk Rating (Erb-Harvey-Viskanta)
6. CAPM with Skewness (Harvey-Siddique)
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation2. International Cost of Capital
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Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
7. Goldman-integrated sovereign yield spread model
8. Goldman-segmented
9. Goldman-EHV hybrid
10. CSFB volatility ratio model
11. CSFB-EHV hybrid
12. Damoradan
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Identical Cost of Capital
• Ignores the fact that shareholders require different expected returns for different risks
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Identical Cost of Capital
• Risky investments get evaluated with too low of a discount rate (and look better than they should)
• Less risky investments get evaluated with too high of a discount rate (and look worse than they are)
• Hence, method destroys valueAvoid
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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World CAPM• Sharpe’s Capital Asset Pricing Model is the
mainstay of economic valuation• Simple formula• Intuition is that required rate of return depends on
how the investment contributes to the volatility of a well diversified portfolio
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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World CAPM• Expected discount rate (in U.S. dollars) on
investment that has average in a country = riskfree + x world risk premium
• Beta is measured relative to a “world” portfolio• OK for developed markets if we allow risk to
change through time (Harvey 1991)
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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World CAPM
• Strong assumptions needed• Perfect market integration• Mean-variance analysis implied by utility
assumptions• Fails in emerging markets
Risk Analysis and Project EvaluationRisk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Returns and Beta from 1970
R2 = 0.013
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Beta
Ave
rage
ret
urns
Should be a positive relation, with higher risk associated with higher return!But perhaps we should look at a more recent sample of data.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Returns and Beta from 1990
R2 = 0.0211
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Beta
Ave
rage
ret
urns
Still goes the wrong way - even with data from 1990!
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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World CAPM
• OK to use in developed markets• May give unreliable results in smaller, less liquid
developed markets
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Segmented/Integrated CAPM
• CAPM assumes that markets are perfectly integrated– foreign investors can freely invest in the local market– local investors can freely invest outside the local market
• Many markets are not integrated so we need to modify the CAPM
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Segmented/Integrated CAPM
• Bekaert and Harvey (1995)• If market integrated, world CAPM holds• If market segmented, local CAPM holds• If going through the process of integration, a
combination of two holds
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Segmented/Integrated CAPM
Estimate world beta and expected return
= riskfree + w x world risk premium
Estimate local beta and expected return
= local riskfree + L x local risk premium
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Segmented/Integrated CAPM
• Put everything in common currency terms• Add up the two components.
CC= w[world CC] + (1-w)[local CC]• Weights, w, determined by variables that proxy
for degree of integration, like size of trade sector and equity market capitalization to GDP
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Segmented/Integrated CAPM
• Weights are dynamic, as are the risk loadings and the risk premiums
• Downside: hard to implement; only appropriate for countries with equity markets
• Recommendation: Wait
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Ibbotson Associates(Recognized expert in cost of capital calculation)
• Approach recognizes that the world CAPM is not the best model
• Ibbotson approach combines the CAPM’s prediction with naïve prediction based on past performance.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Ibbotson Associates• STEPS1 Calculate world risk premium=U.S. risk premium
divided by the beta versus the MSCI world 2 Estimate country beta versus world index3 Multiply this beta times world risk premium
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Ibbotson Associates
4 Add in 0.5 times the ‘intercept’ from the initial regression. “This additional premium represents the compensation an investor receives for taking on the considerable risks of the emerging markets that is not explained by beta alone.”
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Ibbotson Associates
• Gives unreasonable results in some countries• Only useful if equity markets exist• Ibbotson Associates does not even use itRecommendation: Do not use this version.
Ibbotson has alternative methods available.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CAPM with Skewness
• For years, economists did not understand why people spend money on lottery tickets and horse betting
• The expected return is negative and the volatility is high
• Behavioral explanations focused on “risk loving”
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CAPM with Skewness
• But this is just preference for positive skewness (big positive outcomes)
• People like positive skewness and dislike negative skewness (downside)
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CAPM with Skewness
• Most are willing to pay extra for an investment that adds positive skewness (lower hurdle rate), e.g. investing in a startup with unproven technology
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CAPM with Skewness
• Harvey and Siddique (2000) tests of a model that includes time-varying skewness risk
• Bekaert, Erb, Harvey and Viskanta detail the implications of skewness and kurtosis in emerging market stock selection
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CAPM with Skewness
• Model still being developed• Skewness similar to many “real options” that are
important in project evaluationRecommendation: Wait
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Integrated*
• This model is widely used by McKinsey, Salomon and many others.
• Addresses the problem that the CAPM gives a discount rate too low.
• Solution: Add the sovereign yield spread
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
*J.O. Mariscal and R. M. Lee, The valuation of Mexican Stocks: An extension of the capitalasset pricing model to emerging markets, Goldman Sachs, June 18, 1993.
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Goldman-Integrated
• The sovereign yield spread is the yield on a U.S. dollar bond that a country offers versus a U.S. Treasury bond of the same maturity
• The spread is said to reflect “country risk”
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Integrated
STEPS• Estimate market beta on the S&P 500• Beta times historical US premium • Add sovereign yield spread plus the risk free
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Integrated-EHV Hybrid
• Goldman model only useful if you have sovereign yield spread
• Use Erb, Harvey and Viskanta model to fit ratings on yield spread
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Real Yields and Institutional Investor Country Credit Ratings from 1990 through 1998:03
R2 = 0.8784
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%14.00%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rating
Rea
l Yie
lds
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Integrated-EHV Hybrid
• You just need a credit rating (available for 136 countries now) and the EHV model will deliver the sovereign yield
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Integrated-EHV Hybrid
• Even adding this yield spread delivers a cost of capital that is unreasonably low in many countries
• While you can get the yield spread in 136 countries with the EHV method, you can only get risk premiums for those countries with equity markets
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Segmented
• Main problem is the beta• It is too low for many risky markets• Solution: Increase the beta
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Segmented
• Modified beta=standard deviation of local market return in US dollars divided by standard deviation of the US market return
• Beta times historical US premium • Add sovereign yield spread
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Segmented
• Strange formulation. The usual beta is:
• Using volatility ratio implies that the Correlation=1 !!
World
iWorldiWorldi devStd
devStdnCorrelatioBeta
.
.,,
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Goldman-Segmented
• No economic foundation for modification• No clear economic foundation for method in
generalRecommendation: Not recommended
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CSFB
E[ri]=SYi + i{E[rus-RFus] x Ai} x Ki
• SYi = brady yield (use fitted from EHV)
• i = the beta of a stock against a local index
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
L. Hauptman and S. Natella, The cost of equity in Latin American, Credit Swisse FirstBoston, May 20, 1997.
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CSFB
E[ri]=SYi + i{E[rus-RFus] x Ai} x Ki
• Ai =the coefficient of variation (CV) in the local market divided by the CV of the U.S. market) where CV = /mean.
• Ki =“constant term to adjust for the interdependence between the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium”
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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CSFB
• No economic foundation• Complicated, nonintuitive and ad hocRecommendation: Avoid
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Damodaran
• Idea is to adjust the sovereign spread to make it more like an equity premium rather than a bond premium
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
A. Damodaran, Estimating equity risk premiums, working paper, NYU, undated.
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Damodaran
Country Sovereign Equity std. dev. equity = yield x ------------------premium spread Bond std. dev.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Damodaran
• Advantage: Recognizes that you just can’t use the bond yield spread as a plug number in the CAPM
• Disadvantage: Assumes that Sharpe ratios for stocks and bonds must be the same in any particular country.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 2. International Cost of Capital
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Country Risk Rating Model
• Erb, Harvey and Viskanta (1995)• Credit rating a good ex ante measure of risk• Impressive fit to data
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
C.B. Erb, C. R. Harvey and T. E. Viskanta, Expected returns and volatility in 135 countries,Journal of Portfolio Management, 1995.
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Country Risk Rating Model
• Erb, Harvey and Viskanta (1995)• Explore risk surrogates:
– Political Risk,
– Economic Risk,
– Financial Risk and
– Country Credit Ratings
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Country Risk Rating Model
Sources• Political Risk Services’ International Country Risk Guide
• Institutional Investor’s Country Credit Rating
• Euromoney’s Country Credit Rating
• Moody’s
• S&P
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Political risk. International Country Risk Guide% of
Individual % ofPolitical Points Index CompositeEconomic expectations vs. reality 12 12% 6%Economic planning failures 12 12% 6%Political leadership 12 12% 6%External conflict 10 10% 5%Corruption in government 6 6% 3%Military in politics 6 6% 3%Organized religion in politics 6 6% 3%Law and order tradition 6 6% 3%Racial and nationality tensions 6 6% 3%Political terrorism 6 6% 3%Civil war 6 6% 3%Political party development 6 6% 3%Quality of the Bureaucracy 6 6% 3%
Total Political Points 100 100% 50%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Financial risk. International Country Risk Guide
FinancialLoan Default or unfavorable loan restructuring 10 20% 5%Delayed payment of suppliers’ credits 10 20% 5%Repudiation of contracts by governments 10 20% 5%Losses from exchange controls 10 20% 5%Expropriation of private investments 10 20% 5%
Total Financial Points 50 100% 25%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Economic risk. International Country Risk Guide
EconomicInflation 10 20% 5%Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services 10 20% 5%International liquidity ratios 5 10% 3%Foreign trade collection experience 5 10% 3%Current account balance as a % of goods and services 15 30% 8%Parallel foreign exchange rate market indicators 5 10% 3%
Total Economic Points 50 100% 25%
Overall Points 200 100%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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International Country Risk Guide Risk Categories
Risk Category Composite Score Range
Very High Risk 0.0-49.5
High Risk 50.0-59.5Moderate Risk 60.0-69.5
Low Risk 70.0-84.5
Very Low Risk 85.0-100.0
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Institutional Investor’s Country Credit Ratings
OECD Emerging Rest of World1979 1994 1979 1994 1979 1994
Economic Outlook 1 1 2 3 3 4Debt Service 5 2 1 1 1 1Financial Reserves/CurrentAccount
2 3 4 4 4 3
Fiscal Policy 9 4 9 7 6 6Political Outlook 3 5 3 2 2 2Access to Capital Markets 6 6 7 9 8 9Trade Balance 4 7 5 5 5 5Inflow of Portfolio Investment 7 8 8 8 7 8Foreign Direct Investment 8 9 6 6 9 7
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings are correlated:
0102030405060708090
100
Inst
itut
iona
l Inv
esto
r C
CR
AA
+
AA
AA
-
A+ A A-
BB
B+
BB
B
BB
B-
BB
+
BB
BB
-
B+ B
NR
S&P Sovereign Ratings
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings are correlated:
0102030405060708090
100
Eur
omon
ey C
CR
AA
+
AA
AA
-
A+ A A-
BB
B+
BB
B
BB
B-
BB
+
BB
BB
-
B+ B
NR
S&P Sovereign Ratings
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings are correlated:
0102030405060708090
100
ICR
G C
ompo
site
AA
+
AA
AA
-
A+ A A-
BB
B+
BB
B
BB
B-
BB
+
BB
BB
-
B+ B
NR
S&P Sovereign Ratings
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings are correlated:
Risk Measure ChangesII CCR ICRGC ICRGP ICRGF ICRGE
II CCR -0.03 0.01 0.03 -0.09ICRGC 0.35 0.79 0.54 0.43ICRGP 0.30 0.83 0.25 0.06ICRGF 0.26 0.60 0.35 0.05ICRGE 0.10 0.52 0.24 0.25
Risk Measure Levels
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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ICRG ratings predict changes in II ratings:
Attribute Coefficient T-Stat R-SquareICRGC 0.2120 7.59 5.0%ICRGP 0.1244 5.67 2.8%ICRGF 0.0956 5.69 2.8%ICRGE 0.0833 4.65 1.9%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings predict inflation:
00.1
0.20.30.40.5
0.60.70.8
0.91
0 20 40 60 80 100
II Rating September 1996
Infl
atio
n ex
pect
atio
ns f
or 1
997
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Ratings correlated with wealth:
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
0 20 40 60 80 100
II ratings for 74 countries
Per
cap
ita
real
GD
P
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Time-series of ratings:
0102030405060708090
100
Switzerland Italy Kuwait Argentina
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Returns and Institutional Investor Country Credit Ratings from 1990
R2 = 0.2976
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rating
Ave
rage
ret
urns
Fit is as good as it gets - lower rating (higher risk) commands higherexpected returns. Even in among US firms, our best model gets about 30% explanatory power.
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Credit Rating Model
• Intuitive• Can be used in 136 countries, that is, in countries
without equity markets• Fits developed and emerging markets
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Country Risk Rating ModelSTEPS:
EVR = risk free + intercept - slope x Log(IICCR)• Where Log(IICCR) is the natural logarithm of the
Institutional Investor Country Credit Rating
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Easy to use:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rating
Hur
dle
rate
ICRGC IICCR:84 IICCR:79
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Also predicts volatility:
R2 = 0.5033
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Institutional Investor Country Credit Rating
An
nu
aliz
ed V
ola
tility
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Fitted volatility:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Rating
Exp
ecte
d vo
lati
lity
IICCR:84 IICCR:79
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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And correlation.
R2 = 0.6809
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Institutional Investor Countyr Credit Rating
Co
rrela
tio
n w
ith
MS
CI
AC
Wo
rld
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Fitted correlation.
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Rating
Exp
ecte
d co
rrel
atio
n w
ith
wor
ld
IICCR:84 IICCR:79
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Asian Crisis.
0102030405060708090
100
Jan-9
7
Mar-
97
May
-97
Jul-9
7
Sep-9
7
Nov-9
7
Jan-9
8
Mar-
98
May
-98
Jul-9
8
ICR
G r
atin
g
China Hong Kong India IndonesiaKorea Malaysia Pakistan PhilippinesSingapore Taiwan Thailand Russia
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Asian Crisis.
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan-9
7
Mar-
97
May
-97
Jul-9
7
Sep-9
7
Nov-9
7
Jan-9
8
Mar-
98
May
-98
Jul-9
8
Sep-9
8
ICR
G r
atin
g
Korea Malaysia Russia
Beginning of crisis
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Value of US$100
020406080
100120140160180200
Jan-9
7
Mar-
97
May
-97
Jul-9
7
Sep-9
7
Nov-9
7
Jan-9
8
Mar-
98
May
-98
Jul-9
8
Sep-9
8
Val
ue o
f $1
00
Korea Malaysia Russia
Beginning of crisis
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Value of local currency (indexed at 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-9
7
Mar-
97
May
-97
Jul-9
7
Sep-9
7
Nov-9
7
Jan-9
8
Mar-
98
May
-98
Jul-9
8
Sep-9
8
Val
ue o
f $1
00
Korea Malaysia Russia
Beginning of crisis
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
• September 11 impacted the way that business is conducted all over the world (cannot be diversified away)
• It is reasonable to expect that investors demand a premium to compensate them for new investment in ventures that are now deemed riskier.
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
950970990
10101030105010701090111011301150
S&P 500 September 2001
September 11
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
September 2001
S&P 500 2001
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
80
280
480
680
880
1080
1280
1480
1680
September 2001
S&P 500 1980-2002
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
• Impact not as substantial as one might think in advance.
• Nevertheless, risk increased.
• Initially, people thought more terror would be soon to come.
• As time elapsed, the probability of additional terror decreased.
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
ICRG Political Risk Rating
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
Apr
-01
May
-01
Jun-
01
Jul-0
1
Aug
-01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Nov
-01
Dec
-01
Jan-
02
Feb
-02
Mar
-02
United States
World
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
• More impact on U.S. than average of other countries.
• Implies a small increase in the risk premium in the U.S. (10bp) and a smaller increase in world premium (2bp).
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
• Graham-Harvey survey of the risk premium during September 11 crisis.
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 3. Recommended Framework
Pre-Sept. 11 Post-Sept. 1110-year premium
Mean premium 3.63 4.82Disagreement volatility 2.36 3.03
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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Argentina Mexico Thailand
CAPMIbbotson EHVGS-EHVGS-SegCSFB-EHV
68%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 4. Comparison of Methods
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-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%
-5.00%0.00%5.00%
10.00%15.00%
20.00%25.00%30.00%
Slovakia Pakistan United States
CAPMIbbotson EHVGS-EHVGS-SegCSFB-EHV
537%
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 4. Comparison of Methods
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Excel version
Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 4. Comparison of Methods
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 5. Conversion of Cash Flows
Forward Rate• Intuitive (expected exchange rate levels)• Works fine for developed countries• In emerging markets, there are two problems
– Data not readily available– Will reflect a risk premium
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 5. Conversion of Cash Flows
Forward Rate• Risk premium in forward rate will lead to “double
discounting”• Think of the forward rate as the difference between
two interest rates (local and U.S.).– This difference will tell us something about
inflation expectations– But the local interest rate also reflects a default
probability (sovereign risk)
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 5. Conversion of Cash Flows
Purchasing Power Parity• Simple theory: The exchange rate will depreciate
by the difference in the local inflation rate and the U.S. inflation rate.
• Empirical evidence shows this assumption works well in emerging markets (but not that well in developed markets)
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 5. Conversion of Cash Flows
Purchasing Power Parity• To operationalize, we need multiyear forecasts of
inflation in the particular country as well as the U.S.• The difference in these rates is used to map out the
expected exchange rates• The expected exchange rates are used to convert cash
flows into US$• We then apply the US$ discount rate to US$ cash
flows
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Project Risk Analysis
• Operating Risk– Pre-completion– Post-completion– Sovereign
• Financial Risk
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Operating Risk
• Precompletion– Resources available (quality/quantity)– Technological risk (proven technology?)– Timing risks (failure to meet milestones)– Completion risk
Handle in cash flows
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Operating Risk
• Post-completion– Market risks (prices of outputs)– Supply/input risk (availability)– Throughput risk (material put through plus
efficacy of systems operations)– Operating cost
Handle in cash flows
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Operating Risk
• Sovereign Risk (Macroeconomic)– Exchange rate changes– Currency convertibility and transferability– Inflation
Handle through discount rate
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Operating Risk
• Sovereign Risk (Political/Legal)– Expropriation
• Direct (seize assets)• Diversion (seize project cash flows)• Creeping (change taxation or royalty)
– Legal system• May not be able to enforce property rights
Handle through discount rate
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Operating Risk
• Sovereign Risk (Force Majeure)– Political events
• Wars• Labor strikes• Terrorism• Changes in laws
– Natural catastrophes• Hurricanes/earthquakes/floods
Handle through discount rate
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Financial Risks• Probability of default
– Look at debt service coverage ratios and leverage through life of project
• Check to see if internal rate of return is consistent with (at least) the financial risks
Handle through discount rate
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Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation Risk Analysis and Project Evaluation 6. Project Specific Adjustments
Conclusions
• Project evaluation in developing countries is much more complex than in developed countries
• Critical to: accurately identify risks and to measure the degree of mitigation – if any.
• Each risks need to be handle consistently – either in the cash flows or the discount rate, not both.