Pisa, was among the few that were selected and we were thus able (albeit with a delay of six months) to recruit new students and start a new PhD cycle. As the Tuscan region seems willing to continue in this role of financial support for PhD programs, we hope to be able to ensure the me-dium term continuity of our program and to make sure that Siena remains one of the leading Italian centers for the training of new po-litical scientists.

I would like also to mention that in the field of post-graduate teaching our Mas-ter program on European Politics and Society under the direction of Sabrina Cavatorto and in coopera-tion with the Euromaster program guided by Paul Corner has been able to continue its activity with a small but motivated group of students. The Master program has been one of

Since its foundation in 1997 probably no period was as difficult and chal-lenging for CIRCaP as the academic year 2010-2011. With two big European projects (INTUNE and EUROPOLIS) completed or coming to an end our energies and even more our financial resources were approaching the low point of the curve and we had entered a phase of “recovery” before trying to launch new large re-search projects. In that very moment we were hit by the combined effects of the budgetary crisis of the University of Siena and of the more general period of financial difficulties of all Italian universities af-fected by severe govern-ment cuts. The conse-quences of this situation were for Siena a drastic reduction of the local and national funds for research activities, the threat of a suspension of all PhD pro-grams, a total cut of post-doctoral positions funded by the university and an almost complete stop to any recruitment for per-manent positions for the next four/five years. As it is easy to see this was very close to a death sentence for a centre such as CIR-CaP which has research activities and postgradu-ate training as its central purposes. The atmosphere

as you can easily imagine became rather gloomy in the corridor of via Mat-tioli’s first floor.

Fortunately the bad news were balanced by some good news that gave us rea-sons to hope. The evalua-tion of all the PhD pro-grams conducted for the University of Siena by an external committee rated our PhD program as the best of the University. We might have to die but at least we would sink with flying colors ! Soon after we learnt that the regional government of Tuscany had decided to create a special fund for supporting post graduate training and this fund would finance scholar-ships for the best interna-tional PhD programs of the region. We prepared our-selves for the competition. Our program, which was now joined also by the po-litical scientists of the uni-versities of Florence and

CIRCaP: Overcoming an “Annus Horribilis”

Maurizio Cotta (CIRCaP Director)

N. 1 / June 2012The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

POLICHANGE

M. CottaCIRCaP: Overcoming an “Annus Horribilis”

1-2

S. ErtanVoice from America:A research period at theBrigham Young University

3

A. CofeliceBruges: Chocolat, Bière, et UNU-CRIS

5

N. CarboniThe Stories of CIRCAaP Alumni

9

S. BraghiroliCIRCaP Research:Focus on IdPS

10

F. OlmastroniResearch @ LAPS

11

F. G. LupatoElections in time of crisis:The Spanish 2011 General Elections

11-13

In This Issue

D. KanolRecent developments in Cyprus

15

M. LekicCroatia’s Referendum on EU membershıp

16

USEFUL LINKS:

ACADEMIC POSITIONSwww.jobs.ac.uk

EUROPEAN STUDIESwww.uaces.org

INSTITUTIONSwww.politicalresources.net

Page 2 POLICHANGE

old professors, but a young post-doc or researcher. This makes me really proud of our vibrant research com-munity.

There are of course many other things developing at this moment. Following the recent University reform the old Faculty of Political Sciences (thank you Luca for the hard work you have put in it during the last years as Dean!) is closing down and the same happens to the Department we be-

long to, the DIGIPS (thank you Paolo for all your ef-forts while being its Direc-tor !) . At the same time, also thanks to the strong contribution of the political scientists of CIRCaP (and especially of Pierangelo), a new Department is being created which will bring together all the Social Sci-ences of the University of

the first activities of the Cen-tre and we believe that its importance for strengthening the outreach of CIRCaP re-mains significant.

More or less at the same time in the field of research two national (PRIN) contracts have been won by CIRCaP affiliates (for the first on European Representation Sabrina Cavatorto, Nicolò Conti and Maurizio Cotta, for the second on Legislative activities Luca Verzichelli), in association with other Italian research groups. They will sustain some of our research activities and will also enable us to open in the near future one or two post-doc positions. Not much later another large interna-tional project (TRANSWORLD) involving among its partners Siena, represented by Pierangelo Isernia, was approved. To this we can add that in the field of applied research LAPS, our laboratory for survey research guided by Isernia, has increasingly con-solidated its prestige working both for public and private entities, while the Observa-tory on Institutional Change guided by Verzichelli has continued to monitor the activities of the national ex-ecutive.

In this difficult period a psy-chologically important re-ward has been to see the fruits of our main research projects of the past years coming to maturity. The great bulk of the results of the INTUNE project on European citizenship is to appear this spring with four volumes published by Ox-ford University Press, which will be followed, hopefully during the next year, by two more books. These volumes

are in fact only a part (albeit important) of a wider stream of publica-tions – articles, special is-sues, edited books - that have been published in English and different lan-guages (one in Italian ed-ited by Bellucci and Conti has just come out) using the rich data produced by the project. As for the EURO-POLIS project a special issue of the journal “European Union Politics” is envisaged for the next

months. We are confident that all these works will leave a significant mark on the scholarly research on European integration.

Equally and perhaps even more important for boost-ing the morale of CIRCaP is the fact that during these years an increasing number of young scholars that have graduated from our PhD program have obtained good academic positions in Italy and abroad. And at the same time their publica-tions, articles and books, are gaining wide circula-tion. It has become increas-ingly common for me when I visit abroad and I men-tion Siena and CIRCaP to hear people say “ ah, yes… Siena, this is where X or Y works (or worked)” and X or Y is often not one of us

Siena (and without too many tears we will say good bye to the law and most of the history professors). It is a challenging enterprise as the new Department will have to oversee both re-search and teaching, but we are confident that it will provide a favorable envi-ronment for our Center.

On top of all this Luca was brilliantly elected to the Executive Committee of the European Consortium for Political Research, a sign first of all of the interna-tional scholarly prestige of our colleague, but also of the good reputation of CIR-CaP.

In spite of the difficult times CIRCaP is alive. The work done in the past years and in particular the strong bonds of cohesion that ce-ment the group of younger and older scholars who work at CIRCaP or who, while being elsewhere, keep in touch through the Friends of CIRCaP Associa-tion (thank you Nicolò Conti and Friends for your significant support of some of the activities of CIRCaP such as the Jean Blondel Tuesday seminar or the prize for PhD students !)

The evaluation of all the PhD programs conducted for

the University of Siena by an external committee rated

our PhD program as the best of the University. We

might have to die but at least we would sink with

flying colors !

Voice from America: A research period at the Brigham Young UniversitySenem Ertan (Thırd year PhD Student)

Page 3The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

Durıng my sec-ond year of the PhD program, I started to search for an opportu-nity to spend a research period abroad. I wanted that, not only because I thought that it would broaden my research perspective, but also it would give me more interna-tional linkages. I have contacted a couple of professors who were experts

in my research area and requested to work with them. Among the others, Prof. Valerie Hudson was very happy to work with me for a period on the Woman Stats Project and Database at the Brigham Young University. The Project has a database which is an inclusive collection of information on the status of women in the world. It includes over 310 indicators of woman’s status in 174 countries. I am working on gender equality policies in my dissertation therefore; I thought that it would be a very good opportu-nity for me to participate in this pro-ject. It is particularly because I have been planning to use this database for my PhD dissertation.

After a long bureaucratic procedure finally I went to the United States. The people welcome me very warmly. The first day that I went to office was the weekly meeting of the Woman-Stats. The meetings had two parts; coordination part and the part for the

discussion of a text related to the woman’s issues. The first three weeks of my stay I got trained to be able to enter data into the database. After passing the training I became a coder for dataset. And the rest of my stay I only focused on my research and the scales that I needed to create for my thesis. We had regular discussions with Prof. Hudson and she has helped and still helping me a lot for my re-search.

Another advantage of my study abroad at the Brigham Young Univer-sity was my access to the university library. As a PhD student at the Uni-versity of Siena, sometimes I had diffi-culties to access some English books and articles about feminist politics and gender studies. However, the BYU has a very good library which was ranked among the top ten univer-sity libraries in the US. Taking advan-tage of my free access to the library I tried to utilize this opportunity as much as I could. Moreover, I still get the access to the online library sources that I have been using by now.

During my period in the BYU I also participated in two classes which were to my personal research interests: The International Political Economy of Women and the Political Systems of the Middle East. Both of the classes were built on an interactive relation-ship between students and professors. I was impressed by the wide range material which has been used by the professors; including illustrative mov-ies, documentaries, newspaper articles, books and academic articles. On the other hand, students and professors

was always in touch by sending wide range of recent information and data via e-mail networks and bringing those issues into the class discussions. To me all of these have been a fruitful experience about different methods of teaching. Moreover, I have learned a lot by sitting in both of the classes.

Besides the work I also get the ac-cess to the activities in university campus such as sport facilities and art performances of the university.

These were the best ways for me to relax after a long day of hard work.

Beside its immense contribution on my PhD thesis, my short research period at the BYU also contributes in a great deal to my future re-search career on woman’s studies. I created permanent links with the Womanstats project which is going to require my regular visits to the US in order to participate in the annual meetings of the Woman-stats. I feel like to go to this short research period abroad was one of the best decisions that I have ever taken for my academic career (of course the best decision that I have ever made was to be a part of the CIRCAP family). In short, I sug-gest all PhD students to have a research period abroad. I am sure it will contribute to academic and personal development of each PhD student.

“BYU has a very good library which was ranked among the top ten university libraries in the US. ”

Info available at www.byu.edu

Page 4 POLICHANGE

http://circapalumni.org/

The internet address of the website is now www.circapalumni.org. One can find here the aims of the association, the current list of its members, all the official documents and the legal basis of the association, like the Constitution Act, Statutes and Assembly minutes. The Activities page presents info about past events, current actions and further plans of the association. Information about how to make donations to our association are on the Donations page. There you will find the details of our bank account, or as an alternative the PayPal transfer money system. Finally, in the Photo Gallery there are some of our pictures from different lectures, conferences and other official and informal occasions. Should you have further questions, advice, comments or if you would like to upload your own contents on the website please contact Federico Russo at federico.russo@unisi.it.

The Centre for the Study of Political Change or-ganizes a weekly two-hour seminar, open to all social scientists and to those who work on political science related issues from a variety of disciplines. The Seminar provides an opportunity to both the staff and the graduate students of the CIRCaP to be familiar with the research currently undertaken in Italy and abroad. Jean Blondel Tuesday semi-nars are supported by “Friends of CIRCaP,” Fat-toria Campopalazzi and Vini Mazzei. Here is the list of speakers for the A.Y. 2011-2012:

13 March — Andrew Geddes (University of Sheffield and European University Institute)

Why European immigration policies are converging

20 March — Francesco Marangoni (University of Bologna)

Trying to govern, attempting to survive: the legislative activity of the Italian executive at at ime of bipolarism

27 March — Kent Weaver (Georgetown University and European University Institute)

The importance of negative policy feedbacks for policy-making

Jean Blondel Tuesday Seminars in Political Science.A.Y. 2011/2012

3 April — Isabelle Guinaudeau (European University Institute)

Politicization of the EU beyond the inverted-U. Systemic salience, multidimensionality and the predominance of consensus

17 April — Luigi Bobbio (University of Turin)

Assessing the quality of deliberation

8 May — Richard Nadeau (University of Montreal)

Patrimony and participation

15 May — Emidio Diodato (University for Foreigners, Perugia)

Turkey between institutional constraints and geopolitical changes. An agenda forresearch

22 May — Dario Tuorto (University of Bologna)

Parents and children in the political socialization. What has changed in Italy since 1970s

29 May — Leonardo Morlino (LUISS University, Rome)

What are the theoretical results of democratization research

Page 5The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

Bruges: Chocolat, Bière, et UNU-CRIS...Andrea Cofelice (Third year PhD Student)

First of all, why Bruges? Well, Bruges is generally known for being a pleasant, homely and even romantic town. Someone would dare to call it “Venice of the North”, not only because of the numerous canals and little bridges, but also because of the huge mass of tourists that steadily occupies its historic centre from 10 a.m. to 6 p. m.However, if you’re a social or political scientist, you may have two more reasons to get to Bruges. The city, indeed, hosts two important research and training centres: the renowned College of Europe and the (less known) United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS). This latter represents a sort of “hub”, surely at the European, but I would also say at global level, for studies on regional integration. The institute is part of the United Nations University framework; its work consists in monitoring and assessing regional integration projects all over the world, from the widest perspectives (political, economic, institutional), as well as exploring interact ions among reg ional organisations and between them and global institutions. Currently, its research is built up around four main programmes: comparative regional integration; monitoring regional i n t e g r a t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a n o n l i n e information system); regional peace and security; socio-economic dimensions of regional integration.

UNU-CRIS generally offers the opportunity for researchers with a background in regional integration to spend research time in Bruges (there are no specific deadlines). Given my i n t e r e s t s i n p a r l i a m e n t a r y institutions of regional organisations,

I caught this chance and worked there for a three-month period (October-December 2011). As a visiting researcher, I enjoyed all the services offered by UNU-CRIS, including an office shared with another researcher, unlimited access to its relatively small but highly specialised library, and a card of the College of Europe allowing to rent

books and attend various conferences and events. The research environment is very challenging and is set up in a manner that facilitates cooperation and exchanges among visiting and senior researchers. In this sense, a good tool are the research brunches that UNU-CRIS organises on a regular basis (in practice, it is something similar to Circap PhD colloquia, with the addition of coffee, tea, croissants and other Belgian pastries!). Personally, I discussed the work that is being done by regional parliaments, receiving views and opinions by other researchers according to their areas of expertise.In addition to the work specifically dealing with my PhD research, I was involved in other “complementary” activities. For instance, I had the opportunity to submit a text based on my PhD work as a UNU-CRIS working paper, as well as a joint paper presented by a senior UNU-

CRIS researcher at a South-South inter-university conference in Ethiopia. Finally, I also contributed to one of UNU-CRIS’ flagship publications (UNU-CRIS Policy Brief) in which I explored the ways of making regional parliaments as more robust pro-democracy organs of regional institutions.Definitely, it was a really fruitful research period that also gave me the opportunity to establish worthwhile work relations with a world-wide network of researchers dealing with regional integration.

“The United Nations University Institute on

Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS) is a Research and Training

Institute of the United Nations University

(UNU). Based in Bruges, (Belgium) since 2001, UNU-CRIS specialises in the

comparative study of regional integration,

monitoring and assessing regional integration worldwide and in the study of

interactions between regional

organisations and global institutions. Its aim is to generate new and policy-relevant

knowledge about new forms of

governance and co-operation, and to contribute to capacity building on issues of

regional integration, particularly in

developing countries. UNU-CRIS is part of several research networks: it coordinates two Jean Monnet Projects on ‘Comparing

the EU with Other Regional Organisations’ and on ‘The European Integration Process

and its Implications to East Asia’; a

European Commission FP7 project entitled ‘Changing Multilateralism. The EU as a Global-Regional Actor in Security and

Peace (EU-GRASP)’ and, together with the College of Europe, the Edulink-funded

‘Network for Regional Integration Studies

(NETRIS)’. UNU-CRIS is also partner of the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate on

‘Globalisation, the EU and multilateralism (GEM)’ and of OBREAL/EULARO, a

network set up by 23 academic institutions

and research centres in Europe and Latin America with the financial support of the

European Commission.”

Info available at www.cris.unu.edu/

Linda Basile (2011), (Book Review), Adrian Guelke (ed.) (2010) The Challenges of Ethno-Nationalism: Case Studies in Identity Politics. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, in Political Studies Review.

(2011), (Book Review) Filippo Tronconi and Anwen Elias (Eds) (2011) From Protest to Power – Autonomist Parties and the Challenges of Representation, Vienna, Braumüller.

Stefano Braghiroli, (2012) [Forthcoming] “Portraying the Dragon: Reporting and Understanding Asia in Italy”. In Michael Bruter, Natalia Chaban, Martin Holland, and Ronan Lenihan eds., Asia in the Eyes of Europe (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag).

(with Luca Verzichelli), (2012) “Condemned to ineffectiveness? Pd and IdV between parliamentary opposition and coalition strategies”. In Elisabetta Gualmini and Eleonora Pasotti eds., Italian Politics 2011 (London: Berghaham Press, 2011).

(with Luca Verzichelli) “Condannati all'inefficacia? Pd e Idv tra opposizione parlamentare e strategie di coalizi-one”. In Elisabetta Gualmini and Eleonora Pasotti eds., Politica in Italia 2010 (Bologna: Il Mulino, 2011).

(with Irena Fiket), [Forthcoming] “Financing of political parties in Western Balkans: Closer to Europe, further from corruption?,” Transitions Review, May 2012.

“Je t'aime… moi non plus! An empirical assessment of MEPs’ voting behaviour on Turkey and Turkish mem-bership”, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 14(1), 2012. ISSN 1468-3857.

(with Caterina Carta), “Measuring Russia's snag on the fabric of the EU's 'International Society': The impact of the East-West cleavage upon of the cohesion of the EU Member States vis-à-vis Russia”, Journal of Contempo-rary European Research, July 2011. ISSN 1815-347x.

“The Italian Local Elections of 2011: Four Ingredients for a Political Defeat”, Bulletin of Italian Politics, 3(1), Summer 2011.

(with Nelli Babayan), “Il Buono, il Brutto, il Cattivo? Assessing the Imperialist Aspirations of the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States”, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5(2), July 2011.

(with Sergiu Gherghina), “Romania in the eyes of the Italian political elites: a partner to be ashamed of,” Jour-nal of Social Research and Policy, 1(2), 2011.

“E-virgins, e-MEPs and MEP 2.0: Internet-based political communication in the European Parliament”, Italian Political Science, May 2011.

(with Nelli Babayan), “Pandemic Revolutions, the Bewildered West, and the Friendly Autocrats”, Interdiscipli-nary Political Studies, 1(1), June 2011. ISSN 2039-8573 [Editorial]

Senem Ertan, (2011). Religiosity and Negative Voting towards Islamist Parties in Turkey. Book of the Sympo-sium Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Regional and Global Dynamics: Economic and Politi-cal Issues of Turkey and Its Near Neighborhood (28-29 April 2011), the Faculty of Economics and Administra-tive Sciences, Izmir University, Turkey, 257- 284.

(2011). The Principle of Laicism and Counter State-building in Turkey: A Reflection to History and to the Con-juncture of Today’s Politics. Interdisciplinary Political Studies, 1(1), 80-92.

(2011) [Review of the book Women's Human Rights, by Niamh Reilly]. Political Studies Review, 9(2), 276.

Diego Garzia, “Changing Parties, Changing Partisans. The Personalization of Partisan Attachments in Western Europe”, Political Psychology(accepted for publication in 2011).

“Can Candidates’ Image Win Elections? A Counterfactual Assessment of Leader Effects in the Second Italian Republic”, Journal of Political Marketing (accepted for publication in 2011) .

“Leader, identità di partito e voto in Italia, 1990-2008” (with Federico Viotti), Rivista Italiana di Scienza Poli-tica 41(3): 411-432.

Publications of CIRCaP Students & Researchers

Page 6 Newsletter Title

Diego Garzia, “Le ragioni del ‘voto disonesto’ nelle elezioni parlamentari italiane del 2006”, Quaderni di Scienza Politica 18(2): 209-233.

“The Personalization of Politics in Western Democracies: Causes and Consequences on Leader-Follower Rela-tionships”. The Leadership Quarterly 22(4): 697-709.

“The personalization of partisan attachments in the Second Italian Republic”, Bulletin of Italian Politics 3: 59-78.

“Publishing political science in Italy. An analysis of the last decade of contributions to the RISP” (with Luca Verzichelli), Italian Political Science 6/2011.

“From Group Membership to Party Leadership: The Changing Determinants of Partisanship in Italy, 1968-2008”, Nuffield’s Working Papers Series in Politics 2011-07. Oxford: Oxford University.

“Changing Parties, Changing Partisans. The Personalization of Partisan Attachments in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands”, GESIS Working Papers 12-2011. Bonn: Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften.

Direnç Kanol, (2012) ‘Explaining Green Party Absence in Northern Cyprus’. The Cyprus Review 24(1).

(2012) ‘Assessing the Cypriot MEPs’ Performance: 2009-2011’. NEU Journal of Social Sciences 5(1).

What is missing from the Cypriot peacebuilding efforts?” Independent Media Center 10.01.2012

(2011). ‘Assessing the Legitimacy of the EU’. Interdisciplinary Political Studies, 1(0), pp. 49-59.

(2011). ‘What has gone Wrong with the EU’s Structural Foreign Policy towards the Turkish Cypriots?’. Inter-disciplinary Political Studies 1(2), pp. 166-168.

Andrea De Angelis, “Constructing the European Political Identity: the Effect of Cultural Heterogeneities”. Pa-per presented at the S.I.S.P. Graduate Conference. Turin, June 2011.

“Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Dealing with the Economic Explanation of Voting Choice”. Paper pre-sented at the “1st Conference on Comparative Electoral Research”. Sofia, 1-3 December 2011.

(with Diego Garzia), “Partisanship, Leader Evaluations, and the Vote: Breaking the New Iron Triangle in Elec-toral Research”. Paper presented at the “1st Conference on Comparative Electoral Research”. Sofia, 1-3 Decem-ber 2011.

Linda Basile (2011), “Measuring Party Positioning towards decentralisation: a coding scheme”, Paper presented at the Annual Congress of the Swiss Association of Political Science, 2-3 February 2012, Luzern (Switzerland)

(2011), “Measuring Parties’ attitudes towards decentralisation: a coding scheme”, Paper presented at the ECPR Joint sessions Antwerp 10th-15th April 2012, Antwerp (Belgium)

(2011), Rethinking Parties’ Attitudes towards Decentralisation The Territorial Dimension in the Political Dis-course of State-Wide Parties, paper presented at the 3rd SISP Graduate Conference, 23-25 June, Torino (Italy)

(2011), “Multiple Identities in Loosening Boundaries- The Impact of Territorial Loyalties on Mass Support for the European Integration”, Paper presented at Sixth ECPR General Conference, 25th-27th August, Reykjavik (Iceland).

(with Ertan Senem) (2011), “It is a long way from Milan to Palermo”- Decentralist Reforms and Gender Gap across the Italian Peninsula, paper presented at the XXV congress della Società Italiana di Scienza Politica, 8-10 Settembre 2011, Palermo.

(with Senem Ertan), ‘It is a long way from Milan to Palermo: Decentralist Reforms and Gender Gap across the Italian Peninsula’, in the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions of Workshop of the Femi-nism and State Architectures: Devolution, Federalism, Regionalism and (Gender) Equality, April 12-17, Univer-sity of St. Gallen, Switzerland.

Page 7 Newsletter Title

Conference presentations

Stefano Braghiroli (with Pasqualina Smaldore), “One like no one? An assessment of the government-opposition dynamics in the EP”, Paper presented at the 25th Annual Conference of the Italian Political Science Associa-tion, University of Palermo, September 8-10, 2011.

Invited speaker at the 3rd Graduate Conference of the Italian Political Science Association, University of Turin, June 23-25, 2011.

Invited guest at the workshop “Asia in the Eyes of Europe Methodology Workshop - 2“, Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC, March 9-11, 2011.

Invited speaker at the workshop “Public communications practices in the age of web 2.0”, European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, January 27-28, 2011.

Senem Ertan, ‘Policies for Gender Equality: Definition, Conceptualization and Operationalization Issues’, in the 3rd Italian Political Science Association Graduate Conference, June 23-25, 2011, University of Torino, Torino, Italy.

‘Gender Quotas and Women’s Representation in Muslim Countries’, in the 2nd European Conference on Politics and Gender, January 13-15, 2011, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary.

Diego Garzia, “Partisanship, Leader Evaluations, and the Vote: Breaking the New Iron Triangle in Electoral Research” (with Andrea De Angelis). Paper presented at the 1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research, Sofia, December 2011.

“Issues vs. leaders as determinants of voting: disentangling the endogeneity” (with Paolo Bellucci and Michael S. Lewis-Beck). Presented at the 25th Annual Conference of the Italian Society of Political Science (SISP), Pal-ermo, September 2011.

“The Influence of Political Leaders on Voting Behaviour: The Electoral Effects of Leadership Change” (with Martin Rosema). Presented at the 6th ECPR General Conference, Reykjavik, August 2011.

“Reassessing Leader Effects in Parliamentary Elections with Instrumental Variables”. Presented at the 34th Annual Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Istanbul, July 2011.

“Causes and Electoral Consequences of the Personalization of Politics in Parliamentary Democracies”. Pre-sented at the 3rd Graduate Conference of the Italian Society of Political Science (SISP), Turin, June 2011.

“Voting Advice Applications in Europe: An Overview”. Presented at the 10th Politicologenetmaal, Amsterdam, June 2011.

Direnç Kanol, ‘Lobbying Regulation and Democracy: The Question of Political Equality of Interest Groups Functioning at the EU Level’. Paper presented at 2011 – Kick-off Workshop: The Causes, Consequences and Democratic Legitimacy of International Institutions. June 9-10, 2011 at St. Gallen, Switzerland.

“Lobbying Regulation and Democracy: The Question of Political Equality of Interest Groups Functioning at the EU Level’. Paper presented at The 7th CEU Conference in Social Sciences. May 27 -29, 2011 at Budapest, Hungary.

Francesco Olmastroni, "The war of frames in France, Italy and the United States", Paper presented at the 40th ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, April 10-15, Antwerp, Belgium.

(with Irena Fiket), "Deliberative capacity: a pre-condition for opinion change? An experimental model for ex-plaining opinion change in deliberative mini-publics", paper to be presented at the conference Deliberative De-mocracy in Action: Theory, Practice and Evidence, Turku/Åbo (Finland), June 5-7, 2012.

Kaat Smets (with Lewis-Beck, Michael and Mary Stegmaier ), ‘Standing for Parliament. Do BME Candidates Pay Extra?’; paper presented at the seminar on “The Political Representation of Ethnic Minorities in the UK in Comparative Perspective” organized by the Institute of Social Change (ISC) and Democracy, Citizens and Elec-tions Research Network (DCERN), London, 31 May 2011.

(with Anja Neundorf), ‘The Making of Political Generations. Party Preferences and National Governments Across Western Democracies’; paper presented at the 69th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science As-

Page 8 Newsletter Title

Page 9The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP Page 9The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

The experience I had in Siena as PhD student was really great. What I especially appreciated is the international dimension the CIRcaP school has and gives to its students. I think that it is very important for your professional future, to live training and job experience in a challenging, open minded, european and international context. To this extent, the Siena doctoral programme is unique in Italy. During my PhD I had the chance to meet many international students, scholars and professors around the world. Moreover, being a visiting scholar is an unforgettable experience. It allows you to enrich yourself not only from a professional point of view but also from a personal side. Doing a Phd is a very hard task, who doesn’t remember spending nights in trying to solve assignments in research methodology? Or the tough summer courses in Essex? By the way, this is really what you need for developing strong analytical skills and attitude to be independent and entrepreneurial, key values for whatever you do in life! Personally, I still keep with the research path. However, a couple of years ago I was selected to be project manager for the candidature of my hometown, Ravenna, as European capital of culture in 2019. This is both a very challenging experience and a valuable chance to give a personal contribution to the future development of my hometown. The European Capital of Culture (ECoC) candidature is a long-term process, involving all the

energies and the cultural, social, political and economic forces within and outside the city. The ECoC title is the result of a collective effort oriented by a learning by doing approach. As the successful ECoC experiences show, what the European cultural program leaves to the cities/regions engaged in the competition is a whole new collective set of practices, methods and tools for a participatory development of the future of both the candidate city and Europe itself. To become European Capital of Culture, the city has to show the capacity to imagine its future, that is to have a vision, objectives and strategies to pursue it. The ECoC project needs to be supported by an appropriate governance structure, budget, methods and tools. It should involve citizens, developing participatory processes, and be european, networking with other european and international cities. These are all the key aspects and dimensions I usually deal with the candidature process. As Project manager I have a key role, managing the project by a strategic and managerial side. To this extent, all the skills and competences I got in my training and professional background show to be very useful. What I learnt during my Phd is everlasting. Now I am able to cope with stressful and energy consuming situations, to

be problem solver and to understand policy makers and public policy actors behaviours and logics of action; which type of governance and decision making model suit better, which tools and which methodology to apply. The candidature is a very challenging process. Above all it is about managing relations and conflicts. As every research scholar in public policy and political science knows, one of the most debated issues is how to make different actors, each acting in self-interest, come together to work towards common goals. I have to thank my PhD professors and colleagues, if now I can take this challenge and maybe contribute to make Ravenna more European, more international, more open, more lively, in a word a European Capital of Culture.

The Stories of CIRCaP AlumniNadia Carboni, (Project Manager for the candidature of Ravenna, as European Capital of Culture 2019; CIRCaP PhD 2006)

sociation, Chicago (IL), 31 March–3 April 2011.

(with Pierangelo Isernia) ‘Does Deliberation Increase Ideological Awareness Among Less Sophisticated Voters?’; paper presented at the 6th General Conference of the European Consortium for Political Research, Reykjavik, 25–27 August 2011.

Aline Sierp, “It’s our history! The creation of a European memory framework”, Paper presented at the 6th ECPR General Conference, 25-27 August 2011, University of Reykjavik.

We are glad to introduce, Inter-disciplinary Political Studies (IdPS). The first Italian English-language graduate journal in po-litical studies has been launched more than one year ago by the joint effort of the research com-munities of Siena and Trento.

The IdPS quarterly is a vivid ex-ample of fruitful academic coop-eration between the graduate communities of the Graduate School in Comparative and Euro-pean Politics, University of Siena and the School of International Studies, University of Trento. The graduate journal also gained the invaluable support of the Ma-drid-based think-tank FRIDE –Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exte-rior.

The idea fuelling this initiative is to encourage and promote the research of graduate students and young scholars by publishing their work and helping them inte-grate within their profession. As young scholars, we are fully aware of the importance of pro-viding a fertile ground for the promotion of “young research”.

The ambition of the journal is to disseminate inter-disciplinary scholarly research of quality in Political Science, International Relations and related fields, meet-ing the standard requirements for academic research.

IdPS welcomes original contribu-tions that approach relevant re-search problems and political phe-nomena from innovating vantage points and address research ques-

tions of general interest in the men-tioned disciplines. Cross cutting disciplines, the journal adopts a non-doctrinal approach and en-courages research based on wide and inter-disciplinary perspectives. Acknowledging, the importance of bridging the gap between the aca-demia and practitioners, the jour-nal also publishes policy briefs and commentaries on current issues.

Submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous peer review process which combines the judgements of a “junior referee” and a “senior refe-ree” (faculty members and re-searchers).

The IdPS advisory board includes well known professors prestigious European and international uni-versities and research centres.

Each volume of the journal has three issues featuring 4-5 original articles, policy briefs, commentar-ies and, possibly, book reviews.

The first call for papers was issued in October 2010 on a limited basis, to test the responsiveness of the potential audience. The initiative has received a warm welcome with applications coming also from for-

eign universities. Based on these sub-missions, the first issue of IdPS has been published in February 2011.

The website of the journal (http://www.idps.unisi.it/) has been designed by Edgar Khachatryan and built by the IT Lab of the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Siena. The online presence of the IdPS combines an applealing design, easy access to the resources, and a number of innovative features. Recently, we have also inau-gurated a Facebook group of the jour-nal in order to maximize our reader-ship, promote our calls, and further increase the interactivity of our pro-ject. Being an open access journal, the IdPS portal has the ambition to be-come a pole of attraction for young researchers and to promote their re-search. The editorial board of IdPS can be contacted at the following address: idps.journal@unisi.it.

Based in Siena and Trento, IdPS has the ambition not only to attract valu-able research from Italy, but to also provide its modest contribution to the development of European political sci-ence, involving international author-ship and readership. Thus, further in-ternationalization of the Italian politi-cal science from a graduate perspective is among our main objectives. Despite its young age IdPS has been already indexed by a number of prestigious databases (I.e. Directory of Open Ac-cess Journal, EBSCO, Google Scholar) and by many prestigious libraries (I.e. Bavarian State Library)

We cordially invite the reader to visit our website at http://www.idps.unisi.it/ o r s e n d u s a n e m a i l t o idps.journal@unisi.it.

CIRCaP Research: Focus on IdPSStefano Braghiroli (IdPS Coedıtor - CIRCaP PhD 2009)

Page 10Volume 1, Issue 1

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CIRCaP’s Laboratory on Social and Political Analysis (LAPS-Laboratorio Analisi Politiche e Sociali) was created in 2007 to actively promote and conduct professional research in social and political areas (website: http://www.laps.unisi.it/). LAPS is currently di-rected by Prof. Pier-angelo Isernia and its field manager is Dr. Francesco Olmastroni. The Laboratory acts as a centre of excel-lence for scholars inter-ested in public opinion research, providing them the equipment and expertise to undertake face-to-face, telephone, online and mixed-mode surveys, arrange participa-tory and deliberative events, per-form high-level analysis and pre-pare reports on the development of socio-political and economic issues.

In the last five years, the range of research activities carried out at LAPS goes from issues of local interests to national Italian poli-tics and society. Our data collec-tion has focused not only on the general public but also on the po-litical elite. More-over, LAPS par-ticipated in and contributed to the implementa-tion of important international pro-jects coordinated by CIRCaP, such as IntUne - Inte-grated and United? A Quest for Citizenship in an Ever Closer Europe (http://

www.intune.it/) and EuroPolis -A deliberative polity-making project (http://europolis-project.eu), both sponsored by the European Union

under the 6th and 7th framework pro-grammes for Research and Technological De-velopment.

An overview of the studies conducted in the last year offers a cross-section of the range of research done at LAPS. In February 2011, a CATI survey was carried out for the 150th anniversary of

the Italian unification. The sur-vey, sponsored by the Comune di Siena, aimed at examining the level of knowledge of Italian con-temporary history of the general public and the opinions about the national unification and the fed-eral reform. Two online (CAWI) surveys were held in March 2011.The first survey monitored the opinions of the Tibetan commu-nity in exile about the political future of Tibet (this research was committed by World Action Tibet and the National Democratic Party of Tibet). The second sur-vey aimed to investigate the opin-

ions of a group of Ital-ian parlia-mentary jour-nalists about the role of the political op-position in Parliament (a research coor-dinated by

Dr. Elisabetta De Giorgi at Cir-cap). In April 2011 and October

2011 two waves of a panel survey of 4,000 individuals were con-ducted withın the framework of the ITANES - Italian National Election Studies. The survey, which was fielded in collaboration with “Laboratorio Indagini Demoscopische” at the Univer-sity of Milan and “Laboratorio di Sociologia Applicata” at the Uni-versity of Milan Bicocca, col-lected data on the political knowledge and political prefer-ences of a representative sample of the Italian population. Finally between January 2011 and April 2012 Laps carried out the recruit-ment process for 6 different par-ticipatory events. These processes were promoted by private advi-sory companies (Avventura Ur-bana and Sociolab), municipali-ties (Comune di Carrara, Comune di S. Casciano in Val di Pesa, Comune di Seravezza) and pri-vate associations (Isalmic com-munity of Florence and Tus-cany).

New research is underway in thenext months. The third and final wave of the Itanes’ survey is go-ing to start in the next weeks. An online survey will target the members of the Students’ Re-gional Parliament of Tuscany to address the topic of voting at 16. A mixed-mode survey (CAWI/CATI) will be fielded in May to assess the perceived quality of deliberation of a group of partici-pants in participatory processes held between 2006 and 2011 (this project is financed under the PRINMIUR). A new recruitment of citizens for a participatory event is scheduled in June.

Research @ LAPSFrancesco Olmastroni (Fıeld manager LAPS)

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CIRCappers’ look at the changing WorldElections in time of crisis: The Spanish 2011 General Election -

On the 20th November 2011 Spain celebrated the eleventh General elections that sanctioned the landslide victory of the Popular Party (PP), lead by Mariano Rajoy that gave its party an absolute majority of seats in the new Parlia-ment. With this election, Spain closed and electoral period that started on May, with both regional (except Catalonia,

Basque Country and Galicia) and local elections that gave the Popu-lar Party the greatest central, regional and local power in the whole Spanish democratic period. On the other side of the coin, the Socialist Party (PSOE) had one of their worst electoral results, either in number of votes, seats and re-

gional and local power, as they lost two of their traditional regional strongholds (Extremadura and Castilla-León) and with almost no presence on Spanish biggest cities. Further-more, the 2011 General Elections included the resurgence

of the left (Izquierda Unida), the growing relevance of a rela-tively new national party (Unión Progreso y Democracia, UPyD) and the inclusion, for the first time in a decade, of the Basque nationalist and radical left of Amaiur. The aim of this article is to provide some clues that can explain this success and the consequences for the Spanish party system.

The road to elections

Some words are needed for explaining the Spanish political and economic context at the time of elections. The Second Zapatero’s government (2008-2011) faced a very difficult situation. Firstly, the economic performance was, as in other countries, extremely difficult, characterized by economic re-cession or very weak growth, very high unemployment, high public deficit and the need for austerity and reforms as Spain was perceived as a troubled country, such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal or Italy. As a consequence, public opinion and social movements started to mobilize. This mobilization was espe-cially relevant in 2011, with scheduled regional, local and general elections. Furthermore, with traditional political par-ties in one of their lowest rate of public support, a social

movement emerged, the 15-M movement (taking its name from the date of the first big demonstration, on the 15th May, a week prior to the regional and local elec-tions) that criticized the cur-rent political decisions against the crisis and implied a relevant criticism towards established political parties and the party system. Fur-thermore, the Socialist Government adopted difficult and unpopular deci-sions that, in a certain way, went against their own ideology. Indeed, in the 2008 electoral campaign the possi-bility of an economic crisis was a sali-ent issue, even though Zapatero him-self downplayed its importance and relevance for Spain, an analysis that Zapatero himself consider one of his biggest mistakes. Between denial and appeasement, his government dra-matically changed on the 12th May 2010, when he addressed the Spanish Parliament sanctioning probably the most important cut of the Welfare State, including the freezing of pen-sions, a 5% wage cut for public ser-vants, the suppression of childhood

benefits and important reductions on public investments among others. Later on, Labor Market reform that led to a General Strike and, in agree-ment with the Popular Party, a Consti-tutional change to include Budget Sta-bility, following the EU’s and ECB’s recommendations. These changes on the government’s program, in a very difficult period for Spanish economy (with the possibility of the country’s default) were, probably, the beginning of the end of the Socialist government. With these cuts and reforms, together with an important economic deficit, recession and growing unemployment (23%, or 5 millions), the economic and political situation was extremely diffi-cult.

Under these circumstances, on 22 May 2011 regional and local elections were held. These elec-tions implied an important vic-tory of the Popular Party, that increased its regional power that includes now 13 out of 17 Comunidades Autónomas (except Andalucía, Canary Is-lands, Catalonia and the Basque Country, even if in

these last two plays a key role as external supporters to the regional governments). This huge regional (and local) power is proportional to the Socialist’s regional and local decline, losing two of their tradi-tional regions (Extremadura and Castilla León) and with almost no local power in the biggest Spanish cities. These elections where charac-terized by the 15-M movement, a massive social movement that occu-pied, as in other countries, different Main Squares in many Spanish cit-ies. This pacific movement, that was focused especially against the two

Page 13The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

biggest parties, PP and PSOE, criticized the Spanish political and party system, claiming for “real democracy now”.

So, with an extremely difficult economic situation, an increasingly weak and mi-noritarian Socialist Government, in-creasing public contestation and the growing electoral strength of the Popu-lar Party, the General elections were perceived as very important.

The Electoral Results

The elections implied a landslide victory of the Popular Party. Together with the regional and local power, this absolute majority of seats gave the Popular Party a huge room of manoeuvre to ap-ply their policies to deal with the trou-bled economy and political situation. This election, however, had different consequences. The importance of the two biggest nation-wide parties declined while the number of parties with parlia-mentary representation increased with new and relevant parties with parlia-mentary representation.

Firstly, in general terms, the 2011 elec-tions had a significantly lower turnout than the previous election. This is espe-cially relevant taking into account the perceived importance of this election. Three aspects are worth mentioning. In first place, a higher number of parties have parliamentary representation, moving from 10 in 2008 to 13 in 2011. This may be less relevant taking into account the PP’s absolute majority and control of both chambers but, however, shows a more fragmented Parliament. Consequently, the ENPP and ENEP increased. This leads to the second rele-vant aspect, the power of the two big-gest nation-wide parties declined. This was a consistent trend on Spanish party system, the PSOE and PP’s growing relevance both as a share of votes and seats, making the Spanish party system as a kind of imperfect bipartidism. Fi-nally, it is worth mentioning how the Null Votes doubled to a 1,29% of votes. More research is needed, but it seems that there is a correlation between Null votes and the 15-M movement, that criticized the current party system.

Turning to the electoral results, the Popular Party clearly won. With a 44,63% of votes and 186 seats (17 seats more), this was their best historical result. In a difficult period, electors gave this party a great power to apply their political program.

However, it seems that the PP did not fully benefit from the PSOE’s electoral debacle. The Socialist, with Zapatero’s vice-president as candidate, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, lost more than 4 million votes (15% of their vote) to obtain and historical minimum of 110 seats. Hence, this socialist vote did not go to the

Popular Party but mainly to abstention (almost a 4% more than in the previ-ous election) and to other parties. And this makes the results interesting. It seems that the Popular Party did not manage to attract new voters to their political program. In this sense, their candidate, Mariano Rajoy, lacked of a certain charisma towards the electorate. Hence, two parties seem to benefit the most. On the left, Izquierda Unida obtained 700.000 votes more, jumping from 2 to 11 seats. On the other hand, an almost new political party, Unión Progreso y Democracia, lead by a former Socialist prominent member, Rosa Díez, ob-tained around 830.000 more votes for 4 seats. Both cases are especially relevant taking into account that the Spanish electoral system, especially the circum-scription distribution, benefits the two biggest nation-wide parties and its highly proportional with regional ones (or those with a regional based vote) making difficult to smaller nation-wide parties to obtain seats. Then, the Cata-lans of CIU were also favored by the socialist loss of votes. In Catalonia, a tra-ditional socialist stronghold, this party lost 11 seats and almost a 20% of their vote, while CIU increased their representation in 6 seats and 10% of the vote.

A special mention is due for AMAIUR. This new party represents the independ-ent and radical left Basque nationalism close to the ETA. The abertzale left has been excluded from elections due to the Law o Political Parties, which specifi-cally prohibited participating in elections to those parties that had links with terrorist groups, in this case ETA, and that did not denounce terrorists’ attacks. However, the political context has changed. Since 2010, different movements within ETA and their political branches, aimed to a definitive cease fire, due to ETA’s own weakness, declining social support to terrorism as a political tool, increasing political and police pressure and the geopolitical context. After dif-

Page 14 POLICHANGE

ferent little steps forward, on January 2011, ETA’s declared, for the first time, a “general, permanent and veri-fiable cease fire”. Even though Span-ish political parties were basically skeptic, it was indeed an important step forward for peace and the possi-ble end of one of the oldest terrorist groups in Europe. In this new politi-cal context, the Basque radical left reorganized to create and present a political party that matched with all the Law’s requirements, succeeding in presenting this party to local and General elections. Hence, was present in the local elections, with very good results on the Basque Country, were they even managed to win in the sec-ond biggest city, San Sebastián, and had excellent general elections results, with more votes and seats than the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).

The new government and the X Legislature

On December the new government, lead by Mariano Rajoy, took office. Since then, different reforms were adopted. Interestingly, while the pre-vious Socialist government cut off social benefits, the incumbent PP’s government raised taxes, against their own ideology and an important part of their voters. Other difficult

and polemic decisions were imple-mented, such as Labor Market reform (with a consequent General Strike), a tighter Budget stability law (that was questioned and then opposed by the Socialist party), a transparency law, that included budget control over the Comunidades Autónomas, cuts on Edu-cation and Social Security, in a new and more austere 2012 budget aimed to fulfill the deficit limits agreements at the European level. The Government did it with its absolute majority and with no parliamentary support of other political parties, including the Social-ists. Hence, this new legislature seems to be characterized by confrontation between the Government and the rest of the political spectrum. Furthermore, on March 2012 two regional elections were held, on Asturias and, especially, Andalucía. The latter is the biggest and more populated region in Spain, with the highest unemployment and has been always governed by the Socialist. For the first time in seemed that the PP could win, augmenting their re-gional power. However, the Socialist, together with the left of IU, managed to maintain office. To conclude, a gen-eral picture of the new political pano-rama in Spain. On the one hand, con-trary to other countries, it seems that the political and party system was

strong enough to cope with the cur-rent economic and political situation. Both Socialist and Conservative gov-ernments were able to adopt and pass difficult and unpopular decisions and elections were held as scheduled. On the other hand, it seems that this legislature will be very conflictive. The PP’s government benefits of their absolute majority and a very high regional and local power, which should help them to pass and imple-ment reforms and budget and finan-cial control. However, the new gov-ernment is starting to experience cer-tain erosion in their support and criticism is growing. Meanwhile, the Socialist party needs to find their own way in one of their weakest mo-ment. As in other European coun-tries, it seems that socialdemocracy has to redefine certain policies and political positions to be closer to their electorate. Then, with new parties represented in the parliament (especially in the case of Amaiur) the issue of terrorism is likely to gain salience, possibly complicating even more the Legislature.

Fabio Garcia Lupato (Universidad Complutense de Madrid - CIRCaP PhD 2007)

They were awarded a PhDin Comparative European Politics from CIRCaP in 2011-12

Name Countryof origin

Discussion Title

Muhindo Mughanda

D. R. Congo

31/1/2011 Who asks for democracy and why? Poverty and demand for democracy in ten African countries (2000-2008)

Milena Bigatto Italy 31/1/2011 I parlamentari europei e l’integrazione nella vita istituzionale

Giampiero Lupo Italy 10/06/2011 Role of Emigration on Social Capital v. Institutional Performance Vicious and Virtuous Cycles: a Comparative Analysis of Italy and Spain

Aline Sierp Germany 10/06/2011 Constructing the Past - Shaping the Future.The Politics of Memory and Identity in Western Europe

Lydia Kostopoulos,

USA 19/12/2011 Distinctiveness of Latino Public Opinion in the United States.

Diego Garzia Italy 19/12/2011 Causes and Electoral Consequences of Personalization of

Martino Rubal Spaın 19/12/2011 Politics in Europe. The Impact of Political Competition on

CIRCappers’ look at the changing WorldRecent developments in Cyprus

Page 15The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

Cyprus problem is one of the oldest conflicts in the world. Despite the fact that Cypriots have not experi-enced major violence since 1974, there are still serious issues related to the problem that have to be dealt with both between the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots and in the international arena. Hence, Cyprus problem is referred to by many as a classic case of a protracted conflict with negative consequences both for the Cypriots and the international commu-nity.

Even though conflict reso-lution and transformation methods have been aplenty, the most visible reconciliation technique has been the negotiations between the Presi-dents of the two communities. Presidents in both sides are elected, among other issues, on the basis of their stance on the Cyprus issue. Once they are in office, they have the full authority to negoti-ate with the leader of the other community in order to find a solu-tion to the problem. These negotia-tions date back to the beginning of the problem, with the United Na-tions (UN) as the facilitator. How-ever, none of the leaders have been able to agree on a plan that can provide the island with a united government. Proposals were re-jected either by one of the leaders or both of them. This is why the former Secretary General of the UN, Kofi Annan took a proactive role in ending the conflict based on the agreements between the two communities dating back to 1977 and 1979 acknowledging that the solution to the Cyprus problem should result in a bizonal and bi-

communal federation. Alas, the efforts of the Secretary General were in vain as the famous, or infa-mous Annan Plan was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots in 2004.

Two sides have continued negotia-tions after the rejec-tion of the plan but for the first time, we seem to be in a path with an end date to the

aspirations of creating a federal state. Lately, UN has been giving the signals that their job in Cyprus is not infinite and if the two sides are not willing to make compro-mises, they can stop facilitating the negotiations and remove their forces from Cyprus. Frustrated by the fact that the Greek Cypriots have been admitted to the Euro-pean Union (EU) to represent the whole island despite their rejection of the Annan Plan and the Turkish Cypriots’ support for it, Turkey is determined to freeze its negotia-tions with the EU as a candidate country when the Greek Cypriots

will take over the Presidency of the Council of the EU in July this year. Recently, the Turkish Cypriot leader also stated that July is a ‘natural deadline’ for finding a compromise. Despite the Greek Cypriot leader Christofias’ reaction to setting up deadlines, it seems for the first time that the negotiations may come to a halt in July 2012.

Even if it is impossible to tell for sure what is going to happen by July, the rhetoric in both sides of the island is quite negative. If the UN wants to avoid a major fail-ure after all these years, the Secre-tary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon should understand and ac-knowledge the fact that what the two sides understand as a solution is too different from each other. Therefore, the current laissez faire strategy is likely to create a disaster in the near future. The UN needs to take an active role in suggesting, and at times, insisting on best available solutions based on politi-cal and technical knowledge of the experts on constitutional designs for divided societies and conflict resolution.

Direnç Kanol

(Second year PhD_Student)

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CIRCappers’ look at the changing WorldCroatia's Referendum on EU membership and the developments ın the Balkans

In the middle of fears and mainly dark predictions over the future of European Union’s economic and social stability, the beginning of 2012 brought some good news, in-terpreted by many as a sign of un-diminished attractiveness of this around six decades old creation.

In a referendum held on 22 January in Croatia, in which its citizens were asked whether they wanted their country to join the EU, around 66% of them voted positively. It was a necessary step following the signing of the Accession Treaty, on 9 December of the preceding year at the European Parliament. Next on the agenda is the ratification of the Treaty by the Parliaments of the 27 member states, and once done, the 6th circle of EU’s enlargement will officially be proclaimed. By July 2013 Croatia’s 6 years long journey towards accession should come to the end as it becomes the Union’s 28th member country. Big plans. Even more important looking if you consider this imminent event as it is being interpreted by many – as the first ‘success story’ leading ahead of the whole bunch of Balkan coun-tries lining up to take on the same adventure.

In substance, the referendum out-come wasn’t a surprise. The coun-try was granted the candidate status in 2005, and the authorities have since been working hard to follow through the instructions of the Brussels based mentors. An in-formal ’Alliance for Europe’ was set up aimed at achieving one of the strategic goals of the county’s for-eign policy, with all the leading par-liamentary political parties in Croa-tia jointly supporting the EU acces-

sion. Among the public, ever since 2008, the opinion polls largely indi-cate support for EU accession of Croatia, ranging between 55% and 60% since July 2011. The highest support in fact reached 64% in the first half of November 2010. But there were also significant oscilla-tions, as in April 2011 in the wake of the ICTY’s verdicts in the trials to Croatian generals Gotovina and

Markač, currently serving long sen-tences for war crimes in the ex-YU conflicts of 1992-1995. The number of those in support of the EU road at that time actually went down to 26%.

The official referendum campaign started on 3 January, with signifi-cant media support. An estimated €640,000 worth of effort included television promotional videos, in-formation booklets mailed to every household in Croatia, and TV trans-missions starring famous political and non-political figures. Both gov-ernment and opposition politicians took on to convince the public to go out and vote. The Croatian Acad-emy of Sciences and Arts gave their

positive voice to the idea, and al-though refraining from directly ad-vocating either position, the Croa-tian Bishop called on to citizens to vote in the referendum, reminding that Croatia is a part of European culture. As the biggest surprise, even the mentioned wartime mili-tary commander Ante Gotovina sent a message to his fellow citizens to vote "yes" in the referendum.

And ‘yes’ it was. But, behind the superficial enthusiasm, compli-ments and celebrations of the refer-endum results - brought under a magnifying glass, the picture re-veals some ‘gray’ spots. Of the 4,504,765 registered voters, 1,960,231 headed to polling stations on 22 January. This makes a turn-out of 43,65% - the lowest ever re-corded among the referendums held prior to accession of any current EU member to the Union. 56,49% of the potential voters didn’t find the question just as important as to make them take the walk to the nearest station and use their democ-ratic right to decide on the future of their country. “Apathy” was the word most frequently used in local and international press to describe the state of the Croatian people in relation to the event. Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanović, attributed the low turnout to “general disillusionment with politi-cians and the country’s economic difficulties.” Maybe Croats were simply tired of voting, as it had passed only about a month since the parliamentary elections in Croa-tia which brought to a radical change in the government, making the center-left coalition led by So-cial Democrats (SDP) takeover the

majority of seats from the center-right conservative democrats -HDZ.

The widest spread ’explanation’ however seems to be that the peo-ple were just not properly informed about what it was they were sup-posed to decide on, despite the costly campaign. The significance and consequences of the move itself were blurred in the politicians’ ad-dressings during the campaign, which instead resounded with gen-eral promises, like ‘more invest-ments’, higher employment rate, better standard. Indeed, during the debate on the date of the referen-dum, opposition parties as well as many experts and the non-governmental organization GONG, which monitors electoral processes, requested that the referendum be postponed for at least three months in order to allow a broader discus-sion on the importance and conse-quences of the accession, but it was without effect. Still, even if we ac-cept the lack of information as an excuse for the low turnout, what about the reasons for the 33.13% of negative votes? Explicit opponents to the accession listed among their strongest arguments the fear of los-ing sovereignty and national iden-tity, only 20 years after it was bit-terly fought for in the war for inde-pendence from Yugoslavia. Besides this, there is the layman’s interpre-tation of the alleged consequences of the harmonization process with various Union’s regulations. Namely, the rumor is that the tra-ditional agricultural products such as home-made alcoholic drinks, dairy and meat products will be banned out of market. And we must agree this sounds much more important to an average Croatian in a country of agriculture and tourism, than the flashing numbers

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of planned EU structural invest-ments, stricter financial arrange-ments, labor mobility or opportuni-ties for studying abroad for future generations. Last but not least im-portant, threats were heard that the entire Croatian part of Adriatic coast would be sold to foreigners.All this was pointed out to, among elsewhere, in the capital’s main square a day before the referen-dum, when about 1000 anti-EU protesters gathered to warn the public of the consequences of the “yes” vote.As a result, 29% of all registered voters in Croatia made this crucial decision on behalf of the whole country. This was the foundation for the representatives of the anti-EU camp to claim legal invalidity of the referendum. But the coun-try’s regulations were changed in June 2010 to allow the simple ma-jority have the say without asking for the minimum turnout require-ment for the poll to be valid.

Be it as it may, the final outcome is what counts and all the important actors here seem happy about it. In a joint statement, presidents of the European Commission and the Council said the referendum out-come was “good news for Croatia, good news for the region, and good news for Europe”. Even the “Iron lady of the EU”, Angela Merkel, said it will be pleasure and joy when Croatia joins the gang. It’s clear, though, for everyone that the remaining part of the road is not all smooth and easy. Croatia was com-mended for its efforts in fighting corruption and conducting legal reforms, but also warned they need to continue with the hard work. Nevertheless, the bridge has been set and it bears great importancenot only for Croatia but also for all

its neighbours in Southeast Europe. The candidate countries are already looking up to Croatia’s good exam-ples and fastening their pace on the EU road. Serbia’s just been granted the candidate status as a reward for advances in reforms and in address-ing the Kosovo issue, Montenegro should start accession talks in June 2012. None of the others too will surely be able to ignore the effects, as regional cooperation is being set as a requirement for progress of all. On the other hand, the EU is in this way also ensuring its advantage with relation to alternatives – Tur-key and Muslim world for Bosnia and Bosniaks in other countries, “brotherly” Russia for Serbia.

So in these days filled with hand-shakes accompanied by welcoming speeches taking place at the EU’s capital - in spite of hard times, apa-thy and skepticism, let us conclude the story on the event in focus hop-ing it will soon show to have been one of the decisive steps on that much mentioned and dreamed “path towards a wider Europe of peace, democracy, stability and prosperity”.

Marija Lekic(Master student 2008)

All the CIRCaP alumni are warmly invited to collaborate to the following issues of Polichange. We want to make of this news-letter your voice. The voice of dozens CIRCaP Alumni scattered all along Europe and beyond.

You can reach us by e-mail and send us ideas, comments and criticisms. But we would also ask you to give us a more concrete contribution: we are looking for materials and short articles de-

scribing your ongoing projects, your current work and the experi-ences you are doing in the academic life as well as in other sectors.

Also, we want to create an up-to-date address book to keep all of you in touch, and a detailed data-set concerning the job placement experiences and the publications of the CIRCaP alumni. Your help will be decisive. Please, complete our on

-line survey at http://circapalumni.org/.

We are looking forward to hearing from you soon.

The editorial board of POLICHANGE

POLICHANGE

The NEWSLETTER of the Friends of CIRCaP

EditorsStefano BraghiroliCatherine Moury

Desktop PublishingHydra Designers

Friends of CIRCaP

President:

Nicolò Conti

Members of the steering committee:

Stefano Braghiroli

Maurizio Cotta

Elisabetta De Giorgi

Federico Russo

Aline Sierp

Tel.: +39 05770235311

Give your contribution to Polichange!

Recent Publications from the Faculty2012

Verzichelli, L. (ed.), The Europe of Elites. A Study into the Europeanness of Europe’s Political and Economic Elites, Oxford, OUP (with H. Best and G. Lengyel)

Bellucci, P. (ed.), The Europeanization of National Polities? Citizenship and Support in a Post-Enlargement Union, Oxford, OUP (with D. Sanders, G. Tóka, and M. Torcal)

Bellucci, P. & Conti, N. (Ed.), Gli Italiani e l’Europa. Opinione pubblica, élite politiche e media, Roma, Carocci.

2011

Bellucci, P. (ed.) (2011) Votare in Italia: 1968-2008. Dall’appartenenza alla scelta, Bologna, Il Mulino (with P. Segatti).

Conti, N. Cotta, M., (with P. Tavares De Almeida) (Eds.) (2011), Perspectives of National Elites on European Citizenship, London, Routledge

Memoli, V. (2011), Sostenere la democrazia. Soddisfazione e disaffezione in Europa, Roma, Aracne

Serricchio, F. (2011), Perchè gli Italiani diventano euroscettici, Pisa, PLUS-Pisa University Press

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and your photos for our archives

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