Policy Landscape.

Spring 2014

‘What’s happening in the 14-19 world?’

The (education) world as it appears now• Increasing policy excitement as 2015 looms• Economy strengthening but Dept budgets facing further cuts• Established reform template with education part of a 3-pronged

Government priority axis• ‘Stagnant’ performance of parts of education system cited in series of

recent national/international Reports• 80% of 2010 Coalition education agenda now complete, 2014 emerging as

important year for completing building blocks including:– Transformation of Early Years learning– Implementation of revised National Curriculum – Development of new qualification structures– Completion of Wolf agenda– Adaption of new accountability arrangements– Operation of new school system

• Key issues include:– Performance levels in English and maths– Closing the attainment gap– Skill levels/employability of young people– Nature of the school system– Qualified profession– Stamina levels

The world as the politicians are planning itConservatives Labour Lib-Dem

Schools •More demanding qual system, emphasis on measurable outputs•3 routes @16-19 leading to Tech Bacc• New accountability benchmarks • Professional standards and PRP for teachers•Devolved management of school system

•Standards-based approach to qual reform• Fully qualified, licensed profession •L3 Tech Bacc with employer accredited work exp•Parent-led Academy system, stronger local accountability

•‘World Class’ 14-19 system with equality between routes, improved careers system, pre apprenticeships, Eng/ma/ICT to L2

FE/Adult Skills •Gradual adoption of employer-led apprenticeships•Development of Traineeship route•Responsive qual system•Skills training handed over to employers•Local market determinism •New intervention procedures •Review of 16-25 system

•3 part rebuild of voc system: apprenticeships; 14-19 employability; voc learning•Support for L3 apprenticeship model, employer owned•Licensed ITEs focusing on int/technician/core skills•New employer-led partnerships•Review of regional skills

•Extension of pupil premium•Support for Heywood Review•UCAS system for apprenticeships, maintenance loans, improved careers system as part of strengthened 16-24 offer

HE •Retaining current fee regime + differentials•Focus on STEM and WP•Gradual opening up of market

•Revising fee approach•Potential interest in high-level voc route and Poly system•Market regulation

•Full scale fee review BUT after 2015•Single HE regulator•Visa changes

The world as it often feels like• A confusing satnav of different instructions• Landmark Papers under Labour

– The 2004 Tomlinson Report, (Created original Labour architecture for 14-19 reform)– The 2006 Leitch Report, (Spawned the current demand-led skills agenda)– The 2009 Schools White Paper, (Listed Labour plans on accountability and licence to teach)– The 2009 Apprenticeship Strategy, (Laid basis of apprenticeship strategy)

• Landmark Papers under the Coalition – The March 2010 Sykes inquiry (Identified principles for more rigorous qual system)– The July 2010 Academies Act (Laid foundations of new school system)– The Nov 2010 Schools White Paper (Set out the Gove battle plan for reform)– The Dec 2010 Skills Investment Strategy (Reset skills priorities within new austerity climate)– The March 2011 Wolf Report (Set the direction for 14-19 VQ reform)– The April 2011 Growth Plan (Identified key sectors and growth priorities)– The July 2011 HE White Paper (Laid out the new fee-based market model for HE) – The Nov 2011 Education Act (Legislated for Gove reforms on quangos, regulation)– The July 2012 Education Committee Report (Identified parameters for reform of exam system)– The Nov 2012 Richard Report (Set context for latest round of apprenticeship reform)– The Jan 2013 Ed Committee Report (Reset KS4 reform around new GCSEs)– The April 2013 Rigour and Responsiveness Paper (Refocused BIS strategy on FE performance)– The July 2013 Spending Round (Set the funding strategy for post election year)– The Oct 2013 Response on secondary school accountability (Confirmed new mechanisms) – The Dec 2013 Autumn Statement (Confirmed protection of school funding but not 16-19)– The Dec 2013 Listings for Performance Tables (Re-defined the qual offer for 2016 tables)

The world as others see it

• “My own view is that teachers are doing a wonderful job and everything I can do in order to reinforce their valuable work, I will”

• “What really matters is what really happens in the classroom and the quality of teaching is crucial. The difference between the best and worst here is big so it should be a rich area for educational policy to address.”

• “English schools are not yet among the best in the world” • “The UK performs around the average in maths and reading and above

average in sciences compared with other participating countries” • “Too many young people are failed by a system which is primarily focussed

on getting them through exams rather than nurturing and developing the whole person”

• Schools are losing their sense of humour under piles of data and spread sheets as head teachers are force to wrestle with an octopus of government initiatives and reforms “

• “The secret is to be useless at school and then get lucky”

The world as it really is now

• Limited funds

• Extensive qualification reform

• Growing levels of scrutiny and accountability

• Data fuelled system development

• Uneasy balance between knowledge and skills

• Coping with new forms of learning

• Trying to meet ever more diverse learner/society needs

Five key challenges

1. Creation of a world-class qualification system

2. Development of more intelligent accountability system

3. Funding provision up to 2015/16 and beyond

4. Revolving system reform

5. Increasing policy attention in the build up to 2015

1. Creation of a world-class qualification system. The Approach

• Re-build of a simplified and more ‘credible’ qualification system• Based on a mix of international best practice and/or political conviction• Focus on essential knowledge requirements and key outputs• Strict adoption of more traditional assessment methods • Freed up NC but more prescriptive qualification content, endorsed by

external stakeholders • More balanced diet, Progress 8 rather than 5 A*-C• Reduction in testing regime but continuation of national exams at 16 and

18• Learning only complete when defined levels of core quals achieved• Delivered by a more autonomous system

1. Qualification reform

• Revised National Curriculum. 2½ years in the making, 1 yr to prepare for; (phonics, SPAG, times table, kings and queens, rivers and mountains)

– (From Sept 2014, Eng, maths, science for Yrs 2, 6 and KS4 from Sept 2015)

• GCSE. Not EBaccs but ‘new’ GCSEs, (coursework, resits, modules, tiering, early entry out; end assessment, sharper grading, benchmarked specs in)

– (English and maths Sept 2015, remainder 2016)

• A Levels. Series of consultations complete, (linear, challenging, HE endorsed,) de-coupling of AS remaining contentious

– (14 new A levels start Sept 2015, maths/FM Sept 2016)

• VQs. Revised to meet post Wolf requirements (size, assessment, grading, content, recognition)

– (From now on)

• Apprenticeships. New post Richard vision emerging around employer ownership, direct funding, minimum durations but questions about young apprenticeships, standard setting and English/maths requirements

– (Implementation plan announced, Trailblazers lined up, employer-based funding model emerging)

• Traineeships. Latest model for 16-24 yr olds, bridging programme but no signature qualification

– (Started August 2013)

1. Qualification reform: GCSEs. Key Points • Content

– More challenging requirements

• Nov resits– Restricted to Eng Lang and maths, others may be considered

• Tiering– Strict subject by subject basis, improved overlap for maths

• Assessment – Restrictions on course work, resits, early entry

– Requirement for AO strategies

• Grading– New scale under development

– Continuing interest in providing fuller picture of performance

• Regulation– Strengthened accreditation process, international referencing

• What to look out for– Closure of consultation on PoS for KS4 Eng/maths (Feb 2014)

– Proposals for new grading scale and standards regulation (Feb 2014)

– Development of principles for non EBacc subjects (Spring 2014)

– Continuing debate about nature of exams at age 16 (2014)

– Impact of new accountability arrangements (2014/15)

1. Qual reform: AS/A levels. Key Points • Five principles behind current reforms

– Confirmation of purpose

– Removal of January assessment opportunity

– Decoupling of AS

– Adoption of linear assessment

– Provision of HE advisory and monitoring role

• HE engagement– Smith Review, ALCAB scrutiny, Russell Group facilitating subjects

• Maths– Development of 16+ Core Maths qualification, new advanced maths qual and

participation beyond 16, emergence of Specialist maths schools

• What to look out for– Closure of consultation on latest regulatory requirements (Jan 2014)

– Accreditation of first ‘new’ A/AS levels (Autumn 2014)

– Position of Labour Party on AS issue and any re-emergence of Bacc model

– Nature of future HE engagement and impact of removing SNC

– Debate about the implications of facilitating subjects

– Growing challenge of alternative work-based routes

1. Qualification reform: VQs. Key Points • New accreditation criteria

– 3 routes, 9 criteria, 3 initially, rest by 2015

• Tech Level Quals– Based on occupational competency

– Intended to parallel A level route

• Tech Bacc

– Conservative version: approved Tech Level, L3 maths, EPQ

– Labour version: industry recognised L3 qual, Eng/maths qual, work experience

• BTECs– Extensive programme of re-development to fit new criteria

• Work experience– Key part of 16-19 PoS, Evaluation and Guidance published (Oct 2013)

• New ‘youth vocational training schemes’– 100,000 training opportunities over next 2 yrs, employer supported

• What to look out for– Updated list of accredited quals for 2016 tables (April 2014)

– Development of further destination and outcome data (Spring 2014)

– Labour’s Skills Taskforce Report on 14-19 provision (Spring 2014)

– Introduction and any further developments of the Tech Bacc (2014)

– Outcomes from Cabinet Office and Adonis Reviews (Spring 2014)

1. Qual reform: Apprenticeships. Key Points • 16-18 uptake

– Government adopt as norm for ‘other’ 50%

– But continuing concerns about low take-up

• English/maths– New expectations from 2014, gradual shift to GCSE

– Concerns about lack of alternative quals and nature of provision

• Funding– Treasury commitment under current cycle but increasing shift to direct funding

through employers

– 16-18 funding largely left out of current developments

• Structures– Single standard per occupation determined by employers

– Simpler frameworks, 12 month duration, min 20% off the job training

– End loaded assessment with grading

– Trailblazers testing out new post-Richard vision

• What to look out for– Technical consultation on new funding system (Jan/Feb 2014)

– Draft standards from first Trailblazers (Feb 2014)

– National Apprenticeship Week (March 2014)

– Development of new assessment strategy (April 2014)

– Increase in policy activity around young apprenticeships (2014)

1. Qual reform: 6 tests likely to shape policy debates on qual reform during the year

1.Is this the right model for designing a world-class qualification system? (Blob v professional consensus)

2.Is the balance right between knowledge, skills and personal development? (Think 2070!)

3.Is this the best assessment system we can manage? (high or low tech industry?)

4.Do we still need exams at age 16? (14 v 16 v 18)

5.Do we understand the impact of new learning technology (threat or liberation)

6.What should we learn from abroad (and does it apply?)

2. Developing a more intelligent accountability system. The Approach

• Part of wider public sector reform agenda of greater responsiveness, transparency and digitalisation

• Significant cleansing of the system• Shift away from narrow performance band to whole cohort achievement• Continued commitment to VA • Emphasis on progression potential rather than points score• Development of ingredients for a self-improving system• Retention of external inspection, focused on T/L• Increased use of institutional performance management• Application of performance-related pay• Increased role for data in all its forms

2. Performance and Accountability

• Series of consultations– Primary school performance (July 2013)

– Secondary school performance measures (Feb 2013)

– 16-19 performance measures (Sept 2013)

• Changes to performance table criteria– 14-16 (Autumn 2011)

– 16-19 (Summer 2013)

• Changes to inspection criteria

• Changes to the profession

• Emergence of other sources of performance information– DfE Data Warehouse

– Ofsted School Data Dashboard

– Guardian/Open Public Services Network database

– Pearson Results Plus, Durham CEM and others

2. Accountability. Secondary schools

•Consultation spring 2013, Government response Oct 2013, reporting 2016•Latest Update Jan 2014•Number of current mechanisms to remain incl: performance tables; floor targets; inspection framework; school website details•Three forms of user information: snapshot; performance tables; data portal•Four key indicators:

– Progress 8– Attainment 8– English and maths performance– EBacc performance– (Possible fifth to come on destinations)

•What to look out for– Updated modelling on Progress 8 (Feb 2014)– Implications of new GCSE grading scale (Spring 2014)– Position on low attaining pupils– Updates on implementation timescale– Alignment with primary and post-16 systems– Opposition positioning

PiXL Main Meeting 16.1.14 18

Calculating Progress 8Grade Points Weighted points

Geography A* 8 8÷10 = 0.8

English Literature A 7 7÷5 = 1.4

BTEC Business Distinction 7 7÷10 = 0.7

Science B 6 6÷10 = 0.6

Maths B 6 6÷5 = 1.2

English Language B 6 6÷10 = 0.6

RS B 6 6÷10 = 0.6

Art C

BTEC Sport Pass

Additional Science D 4 4÷10 = 0.4

Weighted attainment

6.3 = B+

2. Calculating Progress 8

• Assume the student was predicted 48 points based on average KS2 performance

• 48 points = 8 x B grades• Estimated weighting attainment = 6 (48 divided by 8)• Actual weighted attainment = 6.3• VA for this student is +0.3• Aggregate all positive and negative VA to get overall score• School VA below – 0.5 may lead to intervention

2. Accountability. 16-19• Consultation autumn 2013, mix of sharper measures, clearer information, targeted incentives• Defined measures at L2 and L3 with minimum standards for providers and intervention

process for defaulters• Proposals for L2 a mix of core + as follows:

– Numbers taking ‘substantial VQs– Completion and attainment levels– Average levels of attainment– Destination measures– Plus % taking L2 Eng/maths, closing the gap, attainment at lower levels, completion rates for

traineeships

• Similar mix at L3 of core+ as follows:– Progress measure– Completion and attainment measures– Destination measures– Plus closing the gap and numbers achieving Tech Bacc, core maths, facilitating subjects

• What to look out for– Government positional statement following consultation (Spring 2014)– Further development of destination data (2014)– Impact on L2 provision (2014/15)

3. Funding. Current Position

• Squeeze on public sector until 2017/18• Huge pressure on LA budgets• Protection for school budgets• Gradual shifting of funding burden to users • Downward pressure on programme costs• External commissioning of services where possible• Strictly targeted capital budgets• Streamlining support schemes around the Pupil Premium• NAO concerns about budget management and rise of Free School costs• Downsizing at the DfE, nail biting at BIS

1. Funding. Position following latest announcements• Schools

– Real terms protection for school funding and pupil premium

– Capital funding for new schools, school builds and new school places, school kitchens

– Continued efficiencies for early years and 16-19

– Commitment to extension of free school meals

– Reduction in DfE admin budget and central education support

– Commitment to (eventual) new national funding formula

• FE/Skills– Continued cuts to Dept budget: 6% set in SR, potential 1% added in latest Statement

– £260m savings to come from streamlining the qual system around core activity

– £270m for capital investment

– £240m for EOPs, £350m for RGF, £1.6bn for key sector development, £40m for 2 yrs for higher apps, £10m through JcP for 16/17 yr olds, removal of NICs for 18-21 yr olds

– Movement towards a single local growth deals by April 2015

– £2bn pa for Single Local Growth Fund including £500m skills funding

• HE/science– Lifting of numbers cap

– Sale of loan book to fund lifting of cap

– Transfer from NSP to support disadvantaged postgrads

– Extra £50m pa from 2015/16 for STEM students

– Targeted funding for a range of science and hi-tech projects, creation (in 2014) of Science and Innovation Strategy

– Witty Review of university-business relationships

4. System change

• Schools system

• FE system

• Skills system

• HE system

4. System change. Schools• Current position

– Emergence of ‘Gove’ agenda (2008-on)

– Academies Act and White Paper create launch pads (2010)

– Development of Free School model leads reform of provider system (2011)

– Start of reform of accountability system (2011-2018)

– Start of reform of voc system (2011- 2015)

– Qual reform reset and in full swing (2013-2018)

– Reform of teacher pay, pensions, conditions (2012/13)

– Education Committee Reports on exam system, careers, school partnerships (2012/13)

– Implementation of RPA (2013-15)

– Reform of DfE and creation of RC system to oversee schools (2013 on)

• Key issues– Management of school system; role of LA; performance management; pace of change;

credibility of qual reforms; closing the gap; school improvement; student voice; autonomy v centralism; displacement of services; distancing of the profession

• What to look out for– Government publish business guidelines for school governors (Jan 2014)

– DfE respond to Committee Report on School Partnerships (Jan 2014)

– Minister announces new Education Technology Action Group (Jan 2014)

– Blunkett Review and development of Labour policy on the school system (2013-14)

– Government launch ‘champion league’ heads scheme (Spring 2014)

– Education Committee Inquires into ‘white, working class kids,’ new school landscape (2014)

– Regional schools commissioners and boards to be in place (July 2014)

– New SEN legislation comes in force (Sept 2014)

In summary

• Despite hiccups, Government pushing ahead with education reform agenda, speed rush to ensure new qual system in place for 2015/16

• Funding protected 5-16 but emphasis still on efficiencies; for-profit argument potential elephant in room

• Introduction of new accountability mechanisms, focus on progress measures, outcomes, VFM, closing the gap; data dominated

• Curriculum requirements refined to more ambitious core expectations, any flexibilities to be used to bring increased levels of performance

• Existing exam system retained but reduction in qual volume, emphasis on formal assessment mechanisms and removal of resit culture

• Voc provision aligned to learner and market needs, emphasis on credibility and value but continuing concern about employability

• Increasing institutional responsibility for the supply, training and performance of profession

• Drive to fill the space, especially at regional level, created by more autonomous school system

• International grass continuing to be seen as greener• Milk and honey coming

Building up to 2015 • New momentum emerges at 2013 Annual Party Conference season • All Parties on ‘war’ footing, undertaking series of Policy Reviews and

Commissions• Party fortunes linked heavily into management of the economy; welfare

and immigration other big issues• Secret dating for Coalition partners emerging• Current key phrases: ‘squashed bottom,’ ‘squeezed middle,’ ‘hard working

people of Britain,’ ‘little black book of policies,’ ‘Waitrose woman’• Education currently only the 4th E (behind the Economy, Europe, Energy) • Timeline

– Spending Review (June 2013)

– Autumn Financial Statement (Dec 2013)

– 2014 Budget (March 2014)

– European Parliament elections (May 2014)

– London Borough and some Metropolitan and Unitary Authority local elections (May 2014)

– Final policy drafts (Summer 2014)

– Final Conference round (Autumn 2014)

– Manifestos (March/April 2015)

Building up to 2015

Top 12 education policy issues currently

•School system (models/management/performance)

•Primary education (capacity/performance/accountability)

•Qualification reform (volume/core content/assessment)

•English and maths (T/L/alternatives/support)

•Closing the Gap (challenging/social context/interventions)

•Youth unemployment (employability/transition/market)

•Apprenticeships (funding/quality/standards)

•FE (rigour/responsiveness/skills training)

•HE (future funding/lifting of cap/regulation)

•Technology (infrastructure/learning tool/MOOCs and VOOCs)

•Funding (cuts/efficiencies/fee loans)

•Profession (qualified/licensed/performance management)