Artwork by El Lissitzky. Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, 1919

Presented by Selim Erbagci, Smriti Sharma, and Tom Nicholson

October 31, 2012

Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis

Interest Group Theory

Concentrated interests advantaged over diffused interests; organized interests advantaged over unorganized interests

Mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse interests; anticipate possible post-adoption mobilization of diffused interests

Institutional rational choice

Institutions shape the circumstancesof choice facing individuals pursuing their own interests

Understand the institutions that make and implement policies; look for changes in institutions to change policy outcomes

Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis

Path (state) dependence

Accumulated policies create externalities that affect the viability of policy alternatives in the future

Recognize that quick fixes or failed proposals may limit future options; anticipate the creation of policy constituencies

Advocacy coalition framework

Relatively stable networks of actors sharing core and policy beliefs oppose each other to make major change difficult in policy subsystems

Produce evidence to change policy beliefs; take advantage of external shocks to coalitions; seek negotiation to end hurting stalemates

Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis

Social construction framework

Both political power and the social construction of targeted groups as deserving or undeserving affect the distribution of benefits and burdens

Frame policies to take advantage of favorable social constructions; look for ways to change social constructions

Multiple streams framework

Political, policy, and problem streams join at critical times to create opportunities, or policy windows, for major policy change

Prepare for policy windows by having well-analyzed alternatives on hand; look for ways to help open policy windows

Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis

Punctuatedequilibrium

Limitations in information processing hinder proportionate responses so that policy tends to be stable except during major catch-ups

Anticipate stability occasionally punctuated by major policy changes

Reuters video link : here

Photo: Maurice Michael/Flickr

Photo by Reuters

3Background: Cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation

• Life expectancy 62 years for men, 74 for women

• Deaths per year due to smoking-related causes: 440,000

• 44 million citizens addicted, 40% Russians smoke regularly

• “Every year equivalent of a large city disappears” – Dmitry Medvedev

• 97th place out of 145 in WHO/World Bank index compiled by Bloomberg and Kommersant (August 2012), largely due to alcohol and cigarettes.

• Birth rate not at pace with death rate

Photo by Reuters Source: President Medvedev's address

3Background: Proposals from President Medvede:v in response to cigarette smoking in Russia:

• Ban on smoking in public places

• Regulate tobacco advertising

• New taxes on price of cigarettes1. Excise duty of 40% by 2013 & 20142. Hike tax by 10% every year after 2015

Photo by Reuters

Russian demographic context:Precipitous decline and recent rebound

Source: Federal Governmental Statistics Service, Forbes Analysis , 7/06/2012

Cigarette Industry in the Russian FederationMarket Size - $22 billion

ImperialTobacco17%

BAT20%

PhillipMorris26%

JapanTobacco37%

Political Feasibility Cigarette Ban and Tax Package

Actors Beliefs Motivations Resources

1.Russian cigarette companies Sobranie (Russian) Against Profit, market access

Media access, threat of layoffs

2. Foreign Cigarette companies

Japan Tobacco International, Phillip Morris, British American Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco Against Profit, market access Media access, embassies

3. Executive branch Putin, Medvedev ForHealth indicators, life expectancy

Powerful executive, obedient parliament

4. LegislatureUnited Russia, deputy Gerasimenko For

Health indicators, political considerations

Political cover from executive branch

5. Retail business owners cafes, restaurants, assns Against Profit, employmentthreat of layoffs, media access

6. Consumer rights groups

Consumers Union of Russia, official consumer watchdog Leaning For

Health indicators and consumer rights media access

7. Health authorities Minister of Health For Health indicators demographic evidence

8. Advertisers and clientsPCP (Russian AdvertisingCouncil) Against

Profit stream, representing members

lobbying power and media access

9. Finance ministry ForTax base, life expectancy, public health spending Cabinet level power

Potential vectors for engagement on issue of cigarette ban and increased taxation

• Executive Branch

• Legislature (Duma and Federal Assembly)

• Regional/Federalist approach

• Media campaign

• Pressure from business community

Choosing a sphere of engagement: the Russian smoking ban

Photo by Reuters

Photo:AP