political monitor trends€¦ · political monitor trends july 2009 contacts: [email protected]...

Political Monitor Trends

July 2009

Contacts:[email protected]@ipsos.com020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

35%

27%

19%

19%

40%

24%

18%

18%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: All giving a voting intention = 78% (798); All certain to vote = 52% (524); data collected among 1,012 British adults 18+, 17th-19th July 2009

All giving a voting intention (78%)

All certain to vote (50%)

Con

LD

Lab

Other Con

LD

Lab

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = +8 Conservative lead = +16

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03M

ar-03M

ay-03Jul-03S

ep-03N

ov-03Jan-04M

ar-04M

ay-04Jul-04S

ep-04N

ov-04Jan-05M

ar-05M

ay-05Jul-05S

ep-05N

ov-05Jan-06M

ar-06M

ay-06Jul-06S

ep-06N

ov-06Jan-07M

ar-07M

ay-07Jul-07S

ep-07N

ov-07Jan-08M

ar-08M

ay-08Jul-08S

ep-08N

ov-08Jan-09M

ar-09M

ay-09Jul-09

Voting Intentions Jan 03 – Jul 09 (all certain to vote)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

40%

18%


Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)


24%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09Feb-09M

ar-09A

pr-09M

ay-09Jun-09Jul-09

Conservative vote share including margins of error

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention

2005 General Election Cameron elected

(Dec 05)Brown as PM

(Jun 07)

40%


0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09Feb-09M

ar-09A

pr-09M

ay-09Jun-09Jul-09

Labour vote share including margins of error




24%




0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09Feb-09M

ar-09A

pr-09M

ay-09Jun-09Jul-09




Liberal Democrat vote share including margins of error

Clegg elected (Dec 07)

18%




Leads and error margins

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

Jan2003

Jul2003

Jan2004

Jul2004

Jan2005

Jul2005

Jan2006

Jul2006

Jan2007

Jul2007

Jan2008

Jul2008

Jan2009

Jul2009

Con

serv

ativ

e le

adLa

bour

lead General Election ’05

(Labour majority of 66 seats)Est. Labour lead required for a Labour overallmajority

Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overallmajority



Satisfaction

28

37

68

75

44

46

26

19

% Dissatisfied % Satisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Net satisfaction

+16

-56

+9

Gordon Brown -42


Net change from June

2009

+6

+6

+1

-3

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 17th-19th July 2009

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

EXPENSES SCANDAL

BLACK WEDNESDAYGE 1992

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

nNet satisfaction with Prime Ministers: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown

MAJOR /

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

THATCHER /

NEW PM

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

GEN. ELEC SPECULATION

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

1st BANK ‘BAILOUT’

BLAIR

BROWN

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Net

sat

isfie

d

BROWN

MAJOR

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979– 2009)

Number of months from becoming PM

THATCHER

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

BLACK WEDNESDAY

GE 1992 →

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

nNet satisfaction with Governments: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown

Number of months from new PM

MAJOR / BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?

THATCHER / BLAIR

NEW PM →

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

EXPENSES SCANDAL

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Net

sat

isfie

d

HAGUE (1997-2001)

DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

HOWARD (2003-2005)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2009)

Number of months from becoming leader

CAMERON (2005-?)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR (1994-1997)

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Jan-06Feb MarAprMay Jun JulSept Oct NovDec

Jan-07AprMay JunJulyAugSept OctDec

Jan-08Feb MarAprMayJune

JulyAugSept Oct NovDec

Jan-09Feb MarAprMay Jun Jul

The Government and Prime Minister

Government Blair/Brown

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfied (+/-)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

BLAIR BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country / ... is doing his job as Prime Minister?

Gordon Brown (satisfaction)

26%

68%

6%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul-0

7A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

7O

ct-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8A

ug-0

8S

ep-0

8O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?

SatisfiedDon’t know

July 2009

DissatisfiedNet = -42

July 2007 – July 2009


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 17th-19th July 2009

Gordon Brown (satisfaction among Labour supporters)

59%37%

4%

Base: 218 Labour supporters 18+, 17th-19th July 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul-0

7A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

7O

ct-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8A

ug-0

8S

ep-0

8O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?


July 2009

Dis-satisfied

Net = +22

July 2007 – July 2009


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction)

46%

37%

17%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?


Dissatisfied

Net = +9

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 17th-19th July 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

06Fe

bM

arA

prM

ayJu

neJu

lyA

ugSe

ptO

ctN

ovJa

n-07 Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Dec

Jan-

08Fe

bM

arA

prM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

09Fe

bM

arA

prM

ayJu

neJu

ly

January 2006 – July 2009July 2009

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

06 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ctN

ovD

ecJa

n-07 Ap

rM

ayJu

nJu

lA

ugS

ept

Oct

Dec

Jan-

08 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

09 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

79%

8%13%


Dissatisfied

Net = +66

Base: 287 Conservative supporters 18+, 17th-19th July 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

January 2006 – July 2009

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?

July 2009

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

44%

28%

28%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?


July 2009

Dissatisfied Net = +16

January 2008 – July 2009


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1,012 British adults, 17th-19th June 2009

Don’t know

Economic Optimism

Economic Optimism Index

34%

24%

40%

1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4

Jul-0

4O

ct-0

4

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5

Feb-

06M

ay-0

6

Sep

-06

Dec

-06

May

-07

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08S

ep-0

8

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

ImproveDon’t know

July 2009

Get worse

January 2004 – June 2009

Improve 34%

Get worse 40%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Stay the same

Stay the same 24%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,012 British adults, 17th-19th July 2009

EOI = -6%

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

'97

Jun

'97

Nov

'97

Apr

'98

Sep

'98

Jan

'99

Jun

'99

Nov

'99

Apr

'00

Sep

'00

Feb

'01

Jul '

01

Dec

'01

May

'02

Oct

'02

Mar

'03

Aug

'03

Jan

'04

Jun

'04

Oct

'04

Mar

'05

Aug

'05

Jan

'06

Jun

'06

Nov

'06

Apr

'07

Sep

'07

Feb

'08

Jul '

08

Dec

'08

May

'09

Index (get better minus get worse)

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-4-6

-56



-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Economic Optimism since 1979

FalklandsApr-Jun ‘82

GE Jun ‘83GE Jun

‘87

Poll tax riotsMar ‘90

Gulf WarJan-Feb ‘91

GE April ‘92

Black WedSept ‘92

GE May ‘97

GE May ‘01

Fuel crisisSept ‘00

Iraq WarMar ‘03

Sept 11, ‘01

Russia crisisAug-Sept ‘98

GE May ‘05

London bombs Jul ‘05

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month


political monitor trends€¦ · political monitor trends july 2009 contacts: [email protected]...

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