political outlook 2016 elections. | 2 public trust in government remains near record lows sources:...

Political Outlook

2016 Elections

| 2

PUBLIC TRUST IN GOVERNMENT REMAINS NEAR RECORD LOWS

Sources: Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN Polls. From 1976-2010 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average. For party analysis, selected datasets obtained from searches of the iPOLL Databank provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. – February 2014

| 3

AMERICA’S CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS AT HISTORIC LOW

Current Year Historical Avg* DifferenceThe Military 72 68 +4

Small Business 67 63 +4The Criminal Justice System 23 24 -1

The Medical System 37 38 -1Organized Labor 24 26 -2

Big Business 21 24 -3The Police 52 57 -5

Newspapers 24 32 -8Television News 21 30 -9

Public Schools 31 40 -9The Presidency 33 43 -10

The U.S. Supreme Court 32 44 -12Banks 28 40 -12

The Church or Organized Religion 42 55 -13Congress 8 24 -16

Source: Gallup; data based on June 2-7, 2015 poll * Historical averages are based on the times that Gallup asked the question about institutions, which for most dates back to 1973 or 1993.

| 4

MAJORITY BELIEVE WEALTHY & POLITICALLY CONNECTED HAVE BENEFITED FROM GOV’T POLICIES SINCE THE RECESSION

Large banks & financial institutions

Large Corporations

Wealthy people

Poor people

Small businesses

Middle class people

45

38

36

10

7

5

26

29

30

22

21

21

23

28

29

65

68

72

5

4

5

3

4

2

Great deal Fair amount Not too much Don't know

% saying government economic policies since the recession have helped each…

Source: Pew Research Center

| 5

FOR OVER A DECADE A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS HAVE SAID THE COUNTRY IS OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey 10/15

1/12/2

009

4/26/2

009

7/27/2

009

10/25/2

009

1/14/2

010

3/14/2

010

6/21/2

010

8/30/2

010

10/18/2

010

11/15/2

010

1/17/2

011

4/4/2

011

5/7/2

011

7/17/2

011

10/10/2

011

12/11/2

011

3/3/2

012

5/20/2

012

7/22/2

012

9/18/2

012

10/10/2

012

1/10/2

013

4/10/2

013

7/10/2

013

10/9/2

013

12/10/2

013

3/10/2

014

6/10/2

014

9/10/2

014

11/10/2

014

1/10/2

015

4/26-30/2

015

7/26/2

015

10/18/2

015

Right Track Wrong Track

"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?"

64%

25%

| 6

INDEPENDENTS ARE AT AN ALL TIME HIGH

Source: PEW Research

40%

32%

23%

Roos

evel

t

Trum

an

Eise

nhow

er

Kenn

edy

John

son

Nix

on

Ford

Cart

er

Reag

an

Bush

Clin

ton

Bush

Oba

ma

19391943

19461949

19521955

19581961

19641967

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

Republican Democrat Independent

| 7

VOTERS REMAINED DIVIDED ON OBAMA SINCE THE SUMMER OF 2009

46% The percentage of overall approval

Jan-09Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

1/10-14/2010

Mar-10

5/20-23/2010

8/5-9/2010

Sep-10

10/28-30/2010

Dec-10

Feb-11

May-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

9/12-16/2012

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

10/25-28/2013Jan-14

Apr-14

Aug-14

10/8-12/2014

Nov-14Jan-15

Jun-15

9/20-24/201520

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Disapprove

46%

49%

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey 10/15-18/2015

| 8

REPUBLICAN FAVORABILITY HAS BEEN UNDER WATER FOR OVER A DECADE

29%

45%

Source: WSJ/NBC News Survey, Sept. 2015

Septem

ber -15

April - 1

5

December

- 14

June -14

January

- 14

October

- 13

June - 13

January

- 13

October

- 12

April - 1

2

October

- 11

5/5-7/1

1

1/13-17/1

1

11/11-15/1

0

1/23-25/1

0

12/11-14/0

9

9/17-20/0

9

6/12-15/0

9

2/26 - 3

/1/0

9

10/17-20/0

8 RV

9/19-22/0

8 RV

8/15-18/0

8 RV

6/6-9/0

8 RV

3/7-10/0

8 RV

11/1-5/0

7 RV

7/27-30/0

7

1/17-20/0

7

10/28-30/0

6 RV

9/30 - 1

0/2/0

6 RV

7/21-24/0

6

4/21-24/0

6

1/26-29/0

6

10/8-10/0

5

7/8-11/0

5

2/10-14/0

5

Positive Negative

| 9

DEMOCRATS HAVE NET POSITIVE IMAGE & BEST GOP BY 12-POINTS

September -1

5

April - 1

5

December -

14

June -14

January - 1

4

October -

13

June - 13

January - 1

3

October -

12

April - 1

2

October -

11

5/5-7/11

1/13-17/11

11/11-15/10

1/23-25/10

12/11-14/09

9/17-20/09

6/12-15/09

2/26 - 3/1/09

10/17-20/08 RV

9/19-22/08 RV

8/15-18/08 RV

6/6-9/08 RV

3/7-10/08 RV

11/1-5/07 RV

7/27-30/07

1/17-20/07

10/28-30/06 RV

9/30 - 10/2/06 RV

7/21-24/06

4/21-24/06

1/26-29/06

10/8-10/05

7/8-11/05

2/10-14/05

Positive Negative

41%

35%

Source: WSJ/NBC News Survey, Sept. 2015

805 15TH ST., NW, #300 | WASHINGTON, DC 20005DDCPUBLICAFFAIRS.COM | 202.830.2038

INSIDE THE 2016 PRIMARIES

| 11

TRUMP LEADS THE FIELD NATIONALLY

Source: WSJ/NBC News Poll 10/22

Trump

Carson

RubioCru

z Bush

Fiorin

a

Huckab

eePau

l

Kasich

Christie

0

5

10

15

20

25

3027

22

9.6

7 6.65.6

3 2.8 2.2 1.8

26.5

12

6.5 7

9.5

5.8 6

23 3

11/2/2015 8/2/2015

| 12

Trump

Carson

Fiorina

Rubio

Bush

3822

87

6

Nevada

Carson

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Bush

29.2 (+21.2)

20.6 (+5.6)

10.2 (+5.7)

9.6 (+4.1)

6.2 (-3.3)

Iowa

TrumpCarson

RubioCruzBush

33 (+11)20 (+8)

8.3 (+3)7 (+4)

6.3 (-8.7)

South Carolina

Trump

Carson

Rubio

Bush

Kasich

29 (+11)

14 (+8.5)

10 (+4.5)

8.5 (-5.5)

8.3 (+4)

New Hampshire

AND IN THE EARLY STATES

Source: RCP Polling Average/ NV=CNN/ORC 10/3-10/2015

Early state tracker – GOP Primary

(+/-) From Aug. 2, 2015

| 13

Clinton

Sanders

O'Malley

54.4

34.4

3.4

53.5

25.5

3.3

Iowa

8/2/2015Today

Clinton

Sanders

O'Malley

52.5

15.5

1.3

64.3

6.3

2.3

South Carolina

Clinton

Sanders

O'Malley

52.5

26

0

Nevada

HER POLL NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN EARLY STATES

Early State Tracker – Democratic Primary

Sanders

Clinton

O'Malley

39.2

36.8

1.7

30.5

45.5

2.5

New Hampshire

Source: RCP Polling Average/ NV=CNN/ORC 10/3-10/2015

| 14

HILLARY AND JEB LEAD WITH ENDORSEMENTS

Source: FiveThirtyEight

DDC | 15

2016 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar

FEBRUARY (133 BOUND DELEGATES)The Four Early States —

Iowa Caucuses (30 delegates): February 1, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally, rounded to the nearest whole number.

New Hampshire Primary (23 delegates, 20 bound): February 9, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide to candidates earning at least 10% of the vote.

South Carolina Primary (50 delegates): February 20, 2016 — Delegates awarded as “winner take all” statewide and by congressional district.

Nevada Caucuses (30 delegates): February 23, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally

MARCH (1,415 BOUND DELEGATES) Super-Duper Tuesday: March 1, 2016 (Delegates/Bound Delegates) (565 Bound Delegates)

Alabama Primary (50 total delegates/47 bound) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Alaska Caucuses (28/25) — Proportional with 13% threshold

Arkansas Primary (40/37) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Georgia Primary (76) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Massachusetts Primary (42/39) — Proportional with 5% threshold

Minnesota Caucuses (38/35) — Proportional with 10% threshold

North Dakota Caucuses (28/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound. Caucuses can be flexibly scheduled

Oklahoma Primary (43/40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Tennessee Primary (58/55) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Texas Primary (155/152) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Vermont Primary (16/13) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Virginia Primary (49/46) — Proportional

Wyoming Caucuses (29/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound

March 5, 2016 (145 Bound Delegates)

Kansas Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 10% threshold

Kentucky Caucuses (45/42) — Proportional with 5% threshold

Louisiana Primary (46/43) — Proportional with 20% threshold statewide, no threshold for congressional district delegates

Maine Caucuses (23/20) — Proportional with 10% threshold


Puerto Rico Primary (23) — Proportional with 20% threshold


Hawaii Caucuses (19/16) — Proportional

Idaho Primary (32) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Michigan Primary (59/56) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Mississippi Primary (39/36) — Proportional with 15% threshold


District of Columbia Convention (19) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Guam Convention (9/0) — Delegates elected at convention and unbound


Florida Primary (99) — Winner take all

Illinois Primary (69) — Statewide delegates are winner take all, congressional district delegates elected directly on ballot and bound as they declare

Missouri Primary (52/49) – Winner take all above 50%, otherwise winter take all by congressional district

North Carolina Primary (72/69) – Proportional

Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9) – Winner take all

Ohio Primary (66) – Winner take all


U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention

Arizona Primary (58) — Winner take all

Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Source: Time

DDC | 16

2016 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar

APRIL (309 BOUND DELEGATES)April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare

April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)

Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district

Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all

Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all

Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound

Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold

MAY (199 BOUND DELEGATES)May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all

West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference

May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional

May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold

JUNE (303 bound delegates)June 7, 2016 (294 bound)

California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all

New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all

New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold

South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

GOP CONVENTIONJuly 18, 2016 — Cleveland, Ohio

NOT HOLDING A PREFERENCE VOTE

(112 bound delegates)American Samoa – 9

Colorado* – 37

Guam – 9

North Dakota* – 28

Wyoming* – 29

Source: Time

| 17

2016 PRIMARY DEBATE SCHEDULEG

OP

DEM

Aug. 2015 Sept. 2015 Oct. 2015 Nov. 2015 Dec. 2015 Jan. 2016 Feb. 2016 Mar. 2016

8/6/2015Fox News

Cleveland, OH

9/16/2015CNN Salem Radio

Simi Valley, CA

10/28/2015CNBC

Boulder, CO

11/10/2015Fox Business

Milwaukee, WI

12/15/2015CNN

Las Vegas, NV

Jan. 2016Fox News

IA

2/6/2016ABC

Manchester, NH

2/13/2016CBS

Greenville, SC

2/26/2016NBC/Telemundo

TX

3/10/2016CNN

FL

Mar. 2016Fox News

TBD

10/13/2015CNN

Las Vegas, NV

11/14/2015CBS

Des Moines, IA

12/19/2015ABC/WMURManchester,

NH

1/17/2015NBC

Charleston, SC

2/11/2016PBSWI

3/9/2016UnivisionMiami, FL

Source: Hamilton Place Strategies


THE RACE TO 270

| 19

ONLY A HANDFUL OF STATES HAVE DETERMINED THE OUTCOME OF THE LAST 4 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

GA (OPEN)

WA12

OR 7

CA55

MN10 WI

10

IL20

PA20

NY29

VT3

ME4

MA – 11CT – 7RI – 4NJ – 14DE – 3MD – 10DC – 3NH - 4

HI 4

AK3

AZ11

UT6

ID4

MT3

WY3

ND3

SD3

KS6

NE5

OK7

TX38

MO10

AR6

LA8

IN11

KY8

TN11

MS6

AL9

GA16

SC9

NC15

WV5

NV6

CO9

NM5

OH18

VA13

FL29

IA6

MI16

Same vote past 4 of 4 (40)Same vote past 3 of 4 (5)Swing states past 2 of 2 (5)Nebraska (CD 2) Obama in ‘08

| 20

A MAJORITY OF 2012 CAMPAIGN DOLLARS TARGETED TO 3 STATES

$896 million Spent on 2012 General Election Presidential Ads(National Broadcast and Cable)

Top Spending States Amount

1. Florida $173 million

2. Virginia $151 million

3. Ohio $150 million

4. North Carolina $97 million

5. Colorado $73 million

6. Iowa $57 million

7. Nevada $55 million

$474 million

Source: Kantar Media/CMAG, Nov. 14, 2012

| 21

THE WHITE SHARE OF ELECTORATE HAS DROPPED 16 POINTS SINCE 1992

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

8883 81

77 74 72

White Black Hispanic Asian

Source: Presidential Exit Polls, 1992-2012

| 22

2012 ROMNEY VOTERS WERE 88% WHITE

Obama

Romney

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

24%

2%

14%

6%

4%

2%

2%

2%

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

88% White

56% White

Source: Slate.com | Nov. 7, 2012

| 23

LESS THAN 1 IN 4 HISPANICS GIVES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY POSITIVE RATINGS

7/08 5/10 5/12 10/12 12/14 7/15 9/15

49 44

40

52

42

43

4333

21

2222

2425

24

Negative Positive

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 2015

| 24

HISPANICS SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS +29

7/08 5/10 5/12 10/12 12/14 7/15 9/15

50

54

51

63

45

51

48

30

2119

17

23

2219

Positive Negative

Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 2015

| 25

PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS LIKELY TO BE YOUNGER IN ADDITION TO BEING MORE RACIALLY DIVERSE

2008 2010 2012 2014

Male 47% 48% 47% 49%

Female 53% 52% 53% 51%

White 74% 77% 72% 75%

African American 13% 11% 13% 12%

Hispanic 8% 8% 10% 8%

Asian 2% 2% 3% 3%

18-29 18% 12% 19% 13%

30-44 29% 24% 27% 22%

45-64 38% 43% 38% 43%

65 and Older 15% 21% 16% 22%

Democrat 40% 35% 38% 35%

Republican 33% 35% 32% 36%

Independent 29% 29% 29% 28%

Source: CNN Exit polls)

Demo favored GOP Candidate

Demo favored DEM Candidate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/whos-buying-ads/

| 26

VOTER TURNOUT

Source: Past Data - U.S. Elections Center (Based on Voting Age Population) 2014 – Washington Post, 11/10/14 (Based on Voting Eligible Population)

Non-Presidential YearsPresidential Years

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

39%

48%

35%

50%

36%

55%

37%

57%

38%

55%?

36%

| 27

AMERICANS ARE INCREASINGLY CASTING THEIR BALLOTS PRIOR TO ELECTION DAY

• 33 states + DC allow early voting• Every state west of the Mississippi allows some

form of early voting• 28 states + DC now allow no excuse absentee

ballot voting• 3 states – Oregon, Washington and Colorado –

only allow voting by mail (no in-person voting on Election Day)

• In 2012, 32% of voters cast their ballot before Election Day

| 28

2016 GENERAL ELECTION SCHEDULE

July 2016 August September 2016 October 2016

1st Presidential DebateSeptember 26, 2016

Wright State UniversityDayton, Ohio

Vice Presidential DebateOctober 4, 2016

Longwood UniversityFarmville, Virginia

GOP ConventionJuly 18-21, 2016

Quicken Loans ArenaCleveland, Ohio

Democratic ConventionJuly 25-28, 2016

Wells Fargo CenterPennsylvania Convention Center

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

2nd Presidential DebateOctober 9, 2016

Washington UniversitySt. Louis, Missouri

3rd Presidential DebateOctober 19, 2016

University of Nevada Las VegasLas Vegas, Nevada


2016 CONGRESSSIONAL OVERVIEW

| 30

2016 Senate Races: 24 Republicans & 10 Democrats are UP

GA (OPEN)

GOP INCUMBENT/ OBAMA WON IN 2008 & 2012 (7)

Solid/Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss-up Lean GOP Solid/Likely GOP

Open Seat (3D, 1R)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

CO

ND

SC

KS

OK

IA

MO

AR

LA

ALGA

SC

FL

HI

NCKY

IL

WI

INOH

PA

NYVTCTMDNH

Source: Cook Political 11/2/2015

| 31

THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTCOME WILL LIKELY DETERMINE CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE

State 2014 Minority Eligible Voter

Obama/Romney 2012 Election

Presidential Aid Spending ($896m)

2016 Senate Races

Colorado 24.3% 51/46 $73 million Bennet (D)

Florida 34.4% 50/49 $173 million OPEN (R)

Illinois 30.3% Kirk (R)

Iowa 8.7% 52/46 $57 million Grassley (R)

Nevada 36.7% 52/46 $55 million OPEN (D)

New Hampshire 5.3% 52/46 $34 million Ayotte (R)

North Carolina 31.2% 48/50 $97 million Burr (R)

Ohio 16.5% 51/48 $150 million Portman (R)

Pennsylvania 17.5% 52/47 Toomey (R)

Virginia 30.9% 51/47 $151 million

Wisconsin 12.7% 53/46 $39 million Johnson (R)

Source: 2012 Exit Polls; Kantar Media/CMAG, Nov. 14 2012/ Washington Post (Ads)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/whos-buying-ads/


STATE OVERVIEW

| 33

2015-16 Gubernatorial Races:6 Republicans & 9 Democrats

GA (OPEN)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

CO

ND

SC

KS

OK

MO

AR

LA

ALGA

SC

FL

HI

NCKY

IL

WI

IN

OH

PA

NY

MT

MS

WV

ELECTION TO BE HELD IN 2015 (3)

Solid/Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss-up Lean GOP Solid/Likely GOP

Open Seat (6D, 2R)

NHVTDE

| 34

GUBERNATORIAL RATINGS

* Indicates 2015 Election

Solid/Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Solid/Likely R

DE - Open D MT - Bullock KY - Open D* IN - Pence

OR - Brown VT – Open D LA - Open R* MS - Bryant*

WA - Inslee MO - Open D ND – Open R

NC - McCrory UT - Herbert

NH - Open D*

WV - Open D

| 35

CURRENT LEGISLATIVE COMPOSITION

Source: NCSL (as of 11/10/2014)

GA (OPEN)

DEM CONTROL (11)GOP CONTROL (30)SPLIT CONTROL (8)NONPARTISAN (1)

Dem to GOP in ‘14: NV, WVSplit to GOP in ‘14: NHDem to Split in ‘14: CO, ME, MN, NM, NY, WA

GA (OPEN)

DEM CONTROL (11)GOP CONTROL (30)SPLIT CONTROL (8)NONPARTISAN (1)


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political outlook 2016 elections. | 2 public trust in government remains near record lows sources:...

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