politics core generic - ddi 2014

8/16/2019 Politics Core Generic - DDI 2014

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Strategy NotesDisads:

Regulations Bad DA – Afs that impose regulations or limitations on the economyrisk overregulation that will hurt economic growth at a crucial moment in therecovery. Economic decline = ad

!pending Bad DA – Afs that re"uire #! spending$investment y the %ed governmentrisk increase in de&cit spending at a moment when we are getting our &scal housein order. De&cit spending trades of with the private investment necessary to keepgrowth moving. De&cit spending now risk economic decline that's ad

(rowth ad %rontline – Afs that claim increase in growth could e impact turned. )ou need some impact cards in some modules ut asically complete to impactturn.

*ots o% internal link and link work +oth ways, to assist in %rontline writing versusadvantages.


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Shells


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Regulations Bad DA 1nc ShellUniqueness – economic recovery fragile – continued job grothnecessary for sustained recoveryReuters! "uly 1# $%1& +-#! economic recovery not yet complete says /edchairman0 http:$$www.scmp.com$usiness$economy$article$1222345$us6economic6recovery6not6yet6complete6says6%ed6chairman accessed tm 4$17$15,

The United States' economic recovery remains incomplete, with a still-ailing job market and stagnant wages

justifying loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen told a

Senate committee yesterday. Yellen said that early signs of a pickup in inflation were not enough for the Fed to

accelerate its plans for raising interest rates, a move currently expected in the middle of next year. That could

change, with interest rates rising sooner and faster, if data showed labour markets improving more quickly

than expected, she said. But as it stood, "although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet

complete", Yellen said in semi-annual testimony before the Senate banking committee, repeating her focus on

lagging labour force participation and weak wage growth as key to any conclusions about the economy's

health. "Too many Americans remain unemployed," she said.

'in( – regulations and )rotections for the environment divertresources from groth and im)ose economic costs that limiteconomy – climate )rovesDercon! $%1&

+!te%an 8olicy Research 9orking 8aper7;7 -une ?5 ?315

http:$$www.wds.worldank.org$servlet$9D!@ontent!erver$9D!8$


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groth . oriented o))ortunities and im)ose further costs on theireconomies and current economic groth o))ortunities*

/m)act – lac( of groth causes economic decline and great)oer ar

0reen Schrage! $%%2 . @enter %or !trategic and Iowever the 0reat De)ression taught us that a donard global economics)iral can even have jarring im)acts on great )oers* /t is no merecoincidence that the last great global economic donturn as folloed bythe most destructive ar in human history* /n the 123%s! economicdes)eration hel)ed fuel autocratic regimes and )rotectionism in a

donard economic.security death s)iral that engulfed the orld incon4ict* his spiral was aided y the preoccupation o% the #nited !tates and other leading nations witheconomic troules at home and insuJcient attention to working with other powers to maintain staility aroad. odayKs challenges are diferent yet 1;;Ks *ondon Economic @on%erence which %ailed to stop the dri%t towarddeeper depression and world war should e a cautionary tale %or leaders heading to neCt monthKs *ondon (roup o%?3 +(6?3, meeting. here is no "uestion the #! must urgently act to address anking issues and to restart itseconomy. But the lessons o% the past suggest that we will also have to keep an eye on those %ragile threads in theinternational system that could egin to unravel i% the &nancial crisis is not reversed early in the Barack Lamaadministration and realiMe that economics and security are intertwined in most o% the critical challenges we %ace. Adisillusioned rising power /our areas in Asia merit particular attention although so %ar the current &nancial crisishas not changed AsiaKs %undamental strategic picture. @hina is not replacing the #! as regional hegemon since theleadership in Beiing is too nervous aout the political implications o% the &nancial crisis at home to actually play aleading role in solving it internationally. 8redictions that the #! will e rought to its knees ecause @hina is theleading holder o% #! det o%ten miss key points. @hinaKs currency controls and %ull employment$eCport6orientedgrowth strategy give Beiing %ew choices other than uying #! reasury ills or harming its own economy. Ratherthan creating new rules or institutions in international &nance or reorienting the @hinese economy to generategreater long6term consumer demand at home @hinese leaders are desperately clinging to the status "uo +thoughBeiing deserves credit %or short6term eforts to stimulate economic growth,. he greater danger with @hina is notan eclipsing o% #! leadership ut instead the kind o% shi%t in strategic orientation that happened to >apan a%ter the(reat Depression. >apan was argualy not a revisionist power e%ore 1;? and sought instead to converge with the

gloal economy through open trade and adoption o% the gold standard. 5he orldide de)ressionand )rotectionism of the 123%s devastated the nely e6)osed "a)aneseeconomy and contributed directly to militaristic and autar(ic )olicies inAsia as the >apanese people reacted against what counted %or gloaliMation at the time. @hina today is similarlyconverging with the gloal economy and many eCperts elieve @hina needs at least N annual growth to sustainsocial staility. Realistic growth predictions %or ?33 are closer to 2N. Oeteran @hina hands were watching closelywhen millions o% migrant workers returned to work a%ter the *unar Pew )ear holiday last month to &nd %actoriesclosed and os gone. here were pockets o% protests ut nationwide unrest seems unlikely this year and @hinese

leaders are working around the clock to ensure that it does not happen neCt year either. Iowever the economicslowdown has only ust egun and noody is certain how it will impact the social contract in @hina etween theruling communist party and the 1.; illion @hinese who have come to see 8resident Iu >intaoKs call %or QharmonioussocietyQ as ineCtricaly linked to his promise o% Qpeace%ul developmentQ. apanese eCample is any precedent

a sustained economic slodon has the )otential to o)en a dangerous)ath from economic nationalism to strategic revisionism in ,hina too*


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S)ending Bad DA 1nc shellUniqueness – current agreement on budget means no neauthori7ationsSahadi 1& +!ahadi >eanne. QDe&cit @ontinues to Drop !harply.Q @PPGoney. @ale Pews Petwork 35 /e.?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315. http:$$money.cnn.com$?315$3?$35$news$economy$udget6outlook6de&cits6co$S. >eanne!ahadi is a writer and reporter %or @PP that writes aout the economy and money. /red,.

he age o% trillion6dollar de&cits is well over. /or now.T hanks to a recoveringeconomy spending restraint and higher taC receipts the @ongressional Budget LJce nowproects the de&cit %or ?315 will e U215 illion or ;N o% the siMe o% the #.!. economy.T As ashare o% gross domestic product that represents a nearly ?4N drop %rom last yearand marks the smallest de&cit since ?334. T


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>conomic decline causes con4ict! resource com)etition!terrorism and ar?em)! 1%! VDirector o% Regional !trategic 8rograms at he PiCon @enter servedin the 9hite Iouse under Ronald Reagan special assistant to the president %ornational security afairs and senior director %or Pear East and !outh Asian afairs on

the Pational !ecurity @ouncil !taf /ormer Director Giddle East Arms @ontrol8roect at the @arnegie Endowment %or


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0roth Bad 1nc +rontline1. US groth not occurring no – multi)le headinds0ordon! De)artment of >conomics Northester! $%1$ +Roert -

IEAD9


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[ the accumulation of ealth through non.)roductive means* hink aout it thiswayF the 8nanciali7ation of the global economy! and the e6)losion ofgovernment on a global scale are really all about harnessing com)le6ity forthe bene8t of )rivileged classes*


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you should arm yourselves heavily! you ill need arms i% you want to continue to take%ar more than your %air share.

&* 5urn .groth causes environmental colla)se

>conomic groth is the )rinci)al driver of environmental

decline*!peth ?31; +>ames (ustave !peth -(rowth /etish: /ive Reasons 9hy 8rioritiMing(rowth is Bad 8olicy0 IuJngton 8ost !eptemer ?3 th ?31;http:$$www.huJngtonpost.com$ames6gustave6speth$growth6%etish6&ve6reason531177.html 4$14$15 *<

>conomic activity and its groth are the )rinci)al drivers of massiveenvironmental decline* . R. GcPeill writes that the Qgrowth %etishQ solidi&ed its hold onimaginations and institutions in the twentieth century: Q@ommunism aspired to ecome the universal creed o% thetwentieth century ut a more YeCile and seductive religion succeeded where communism %ailed: the "uest %oreconomic growth. @apitalists nationalists 66 indeed almost everyone communists included 66 worshiped at thissame altar ecause economic growth disguised a multitude o% sins. ... !ocial moral and ecological ills weresustained in the interest o% economic growthF indeed adherents to the %aith proposed that only more growth could

resolve such ills. Economic growth ecame the indispensale ideology o% the state nearly everywhere. Q 5hegroth %etish hile on balance quite useful in a orld ith em)ty land!shoals of undisturbed 8sh! vast forests! and a robust o7one shield! hel)edcreate a more croded and stressed one* Despite the disappearance o% ecological ufersand mounting real costs ideological lock6in reigned in oth capitalist and communist circles. ... he overarchingpriority o% economic growth was easily the most important idea o% the twentieth century.Q he relationship etween

economic gains and environmental losses is a close one as GcPeill notes. 5he economy consumesnatural resources


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surging global trade ensure that travel and commerce will remain key %actors inthe spread o% in%ectious diseases

Diseases lead to e6tinctionFox 97

@. 9illiam. *ieutenant @L*LPE*. 7$?5$4. http:$$se1.isn.ch$serviceengine$/ile@ontentserviceI


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Iealth LrganiMation calculates that each year aout 1.7 million children die %rom diseases caused y unsa%edrinking water and lack o% water %or sanitation and hygiene.54 9ater supply issues will ecome increasinglyprevalent in the #nited !tates. /reshwater withdrawals per capita %rom sur%ace and ground waters in the #nited!tates are twice that o% the LE@D +Lrganisation %or Economic @o6operation and Development, as a whole. heEnvironmental 8rotection Agency estimates that if current American ater use remains constant at ahundred gallons )er )erson )er day! thirtysi6 states ill face ater shortages by $%13. As a resulthumanityKs Q&rst needQ will soon e privatiMed.


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Uniqueness


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Uniqueness – state of the economy


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US economic recovery . fragileRecovery no – but incom)leteReuters! "uly 1# $%1& +-#! economic recovery not yet complete says /edchairman0 http:$$www.scmp.com$usiness$economy$article$1222345$us6economic6

recovery6not6yet6complete6says6%ed6chairman accessed tm 4$17$15,The United States' economic recovery remains incomplete, with a still-ailing job market and stagnant wages

justifying loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen told a

Senate committee yesterday. Yellen said that early signs of a pickup in inflation were not enough for the Fed to

accelerate its plans for raising interest rates, a move currently expected in the middle of next year. That could

change, with interest rates rising sooner and faster, if data showed labour markets improving more quickly

than expected, she said. But as it stood, "although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet

complete", Yellen said in semi-annual testimony before the Senate banking committee, repeating her focus on

lagging labour force participation and weak wage growth as key to any conclusions about the economy's

health. "Too many Americans remain unemployed," she said.

http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14


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US economy im)roving – general

>conomy high. lo unem)loyment! average ages!)artici)ation rate! stable credit rating

?ruger $%1&Daniel Hruger6 8hd %rom *oyal #niversity o% @hicago6 studies patterns o% economics and

mortality6 -reasuries in facing Biggest 9eekly Drop !ince Garch A%ter >os06 Bloomerg >une 7 ?3156 http:$$www.loomerg.com$news$?315637637$treasuries6advance6as6u6s6employment6growth6slows6in6may.html

reasuries posted the iggest weekly drop in three months as employment gains in Gay pushed#.!. payrolls past their pre6recession peak and the oless rate held at an almost siC6year low. he #.!.'sAA credit rating was aJrmed y !tandard ] 8oor's which cited the resiliency and diversity o% theeconomy almost three years a%ter downgrading the nation %or the &rst time. )ields on government securities in the euro6area%ell to record lows a day a%ter the European @entral Bank cut interest rates sparking a gloal warming crises rush %oronds. /ederal Reserve @hair >anet )ellen said Gay 4 laor6market conditions -are still %ar %romsatis%actory.0 -he overall economy %rom a o perspective is &nally trending in agood way0 >ason Rogan managing director o% #.!. government trading at (uggenheim !ecurities a Pew )ork6asedrokerage %or institutional investors. -/rom the /ed's perspective you're starting to see very good o growth.0Benchmark 136year yields rose less than one asis point to ?.2 percent as o% 2 p.m. in Pew )ork a%ter earlier dropping &ve asispoints ased on Bloomerg Bond rader prices. he price o% the ?.2 percent security due in Gay ?3?5 dropped 1$;? or ;1 cents perU1333 %ace value to 4$;?. )ields on the securities climed 11 asis points this week the most since the &ve days ended Garch4 and rose as high as ?.75 percent yesterday the most since Gay 1;. wo6year note yields added two asis points to 3.53 percentthe highest level since Gay 1; gained three asis points this week %or a second &ve6day gain. @redit Rating Pew )ork6ased !]8

said today in a statement that there is a less than one6in6three proaility that the #.!.'s creditranking will change in the neCt two years. he outlook on the rating is stale. !ince theAugust ?311 downgrade %rom AAA record udget de&cits have shrunk economic growthaccelerated the dollar rallied stocks climed to all6time highs and reasuries strengthened theirhold as the world's pre%erred haven %rom turmoil. !till !]8 said a polariMed policy6making environment andhigh general government det and udget de&cits constrain the ratings. -A%ter the rating o% the #.!. came under pressure ecause o% the det ceiling and government shut down we actually saw a etter cost o% %unding %orthe government0 David @oard head o% &Ced6income trading in Pew )ork at 9illiams @apital (roup a rokerage %or institutionalinvestors. -9e're still the sa%e haven everyody seeks when there's uncertainty in the world. < don't think that's changed.0

Z@ontinued (rowth' wo6year notes dropped as employers added ?14333 os last month according to the*aor Department a%ter a revised ??333 increase in April. hat compared with the median %orecast in a Bloomerg survey %or a?12333 employment increase. Estimates ranged %rom increases o% 113333 to ;23333. he unemployment rate was unchanged at

7.; percent. Gay marked the %ourth6straight month payrolls have increased at least?33333 the &rst time that's happened since !eptemer 1 to >anuary ?333. -9e've seen continued growthwithin the laor market0 !ean !imko who oversees U illion at !E<


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/rench uly ?312 meeting. he /ed said a%termeeting on April ;3 that it will keep the enchmark interest rate at almost Mero %or a -considerale time0 a%ter its ond6uying

program ends. uly ?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315. http:$$news.yahoo.com$us6economy6growing6across6nation6%ed6eige6ook6?31;445?.htmlS. Agence /rance68resse is an international news agency head"uartered in 8aris. anet )ellen on uesdayGarket9atch T !even o% the 1? regions surveyed recorded only QmodestQ growthwhile &ve notched QmoderateQ growth the /ed said in its latest Beige Book report ased oneconomic conditions in the siC6week stretch e%ore >uly 4.T he report is the second BeigeBook in a row to &nd growth across the country and is the latest evidence the #! economy ispicking up steam a%ter unusually cold weather depressed activity in the &rst"uarter. T Auto sales which have een on the upswing %or more than a year continued to stand out asparticularly risk support %or the economy.T QOehicle sales eCpanded in most districts and auto

contacts were optimistic aout auto sales in the months aheadQ the report said .T Butthe reportKs assessment o% consumer spending a key li%elood o% the #! economy was more sudued aout theroader retail per%ormance.T Pon6auto retailers garnered Qgenerally modest growthQ with wet weather restrainingactivity in @hicago ut Pew )ork seeing a rise Qdue to pent6up demand as the negative efects %rom earlier adverseweather aated.QT 6 ightened laor marked 6T he laor market tightened eCceptionally in some pockets o% theeconomy.T !everal districts reported Qsome diJcultyQ &nding staf %or skilled positions the report said citing ashortage o% truck drivers in Atlanta @leveland Hansas @ity and Richmond.T !killed construction workers were alsoin short supply in some parts o% the country while the energy oom kept laor markets tight in the @leveland andDallas regions.T But the pace o% growth %or the laor market at large was more tortoise than hare.T 9age pressures

Qremained modestQ across most sectors aside %rom a %ew skilled6laor categories the report said.T he overalllaor market Qcontinued to improveQ with all districts Qreporting slight to moderateemployment growthQ the report said.T he report gave a miCed appraisal o% the #! housing market.@onditions QvariedQ across the country with some regions sufering %rom weak demand.T Boston Pew )ork

@hicago and !t. *ouis all reported that residential sales activity so%tened the reportsaid. T During testimony e%ore a !enate panel uesday /ed @hair >anet )ellen pointed to a stalling housing marketwith disappointing sales.T he report comes on the heels o% a string o% #! laor datashowing greater os growth and other data that reveals an improving –economyut one that is y no means entering overdrive.T A @ommerce Department report released uesday showed retail and %ood services sales rose ust 3.? percent in >une.T Q9e see a modest economywhich is modestly getting etterQ >8Gorgan @hase chie% eCecutive >amie Dimon tolda con%erence call this week.T Economic growth has een strong enough %or the /ed


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to scale ack its stimulus measures even as it continues to keep enchmark interestrates near Mero. T

,onsumer con8dence high – im)roving s)ending )rovesuti(ani CM1IM1& +Gutikani *ucia. Q9RA8#8 ;6#.!. Retail !ales Ganu%acturingData 8oint at /irming Economy.Q Reuters. homson Reuters 12 >uly ?315. 9e. 1

>uly ?315. http:$$www.reuters.com$article$?315$34$12$usa6economy6id#!*?P38_3H3?3153412%eedype=R!!]%eedPame=everything]virtualBrand@hannel=1127;S. *uciaGutikani is a ournalist and writer %or Reuters.com /red,.

9A!Iuly 12 +Reuters, 6 A gauge of U*S* consumer s)ending rose solidly in "une in the latest indication that the economy ended the second quarteron a stronger footing*T 5hat momentum a))eared to have carried into thethird quarter! with another report on uesday showing %actory activity in Pew )ork state eCpanded sharply in >uly.T Qhis is not a %ragile economyQ said @hris Rupkey chie% &nancial economist at Bank o% okyo6Gitsuishi #/> in

Pew )ork. Q5he consumer continues to )lay their )art in moving the economy

forard*OT ,ore sales! hich stri) out automobiles! gasoline! buildingmaterials and food services! increased %*# )ercent last month a%ter rising anupwardly revised 3.? percent in Gay the @ommerce Department said.T @ore sales which correspond most closelywith the consumer spending component o% gross domestic product were previously reported as eing Yat in Gay.

Economists had eCpected them to rise 3.2 percent in >une.T 5he re)ort added to signs of theeconomyKs strengthening fundamentals! hich could buoy o)timism therecovery is on a self.sustaining )ath! a%ter output contracted sharply in the &rst "uarter.T /ederal Reserve @hair >anet )ellen told lawmakers the economy continued to improve ut noted that the recoverywas not yet complete ecause o% still6high unemployment.T )ellen however cautioned the #.!. central ank couldraise interest rates sooner and more rapidly than currently envisioned i% the laor market continued to improve%aster than anticipated y policymakers.T *aor market conditions are &rming with the unemployment rate %allingto a near siC year6low o% 7.1 percent in >une and o growth eCceeding ?33333 %or a &%th straight month. T 8rices %or#.!. reasury det %ell on the economic data and )ellenKs interest rate comments while the dollar gained against aasket o% currencies. #.!. stocks traded lower.T >uneKs gains and GayKs upward revision to core retail sales

suggested a pickup in consumer spending in the second "uarter a%ter growing at its slowest pace in more than %ouryears in the &rst "uarter ecause o% weak healthcare consumption. T /orecasting &rm Gacroeconomic Advisersraised its second6"uarter (D8 growth %orecast y three6tenths o% a percentage point to a ;.3 percent annual pace.(oldman !achs upped its estimate %or the "uarter y two6tenths to a ;.5 percent rate. T #8BEA L#*LLH T Asurprise drop in receipts %or automoiles however held overall retail sales to a 3.? percent increase in >une a%teradvancing 3.2 percent the prior month.T Q@onsumers will likely gain more con&dence to spend as the o marketimproves and summer travel season hits %ull swingQ said Randy Iopper credit cards vice president at Pavy /ederal@redit #nion in Oienna Oirginia.T Q9e are optimistic that the second hal% o% the year will deliver stronger sales

growth.QT +rom em)loyment to manufacturing groing ! the economy a))earsto be 8ring on nearly all cylinders! ith even housing regaining its footingafter slum)ing in late $%13 folloing a run.u) in mortgage rates* 0rothestimates for the second quarter to) a 3*% )ercent annual rate*T /n anotherre)ort! the Ne Por( +ed said its >m)ire State general business conditions

inde6 jum)ed to $I*#% this month! the highest since A)ril $%1%! from12*$L in "une*

US >conomy 0roing – )rices and reca)itali7ationAltman 1& +Roger Altman >uly 14 ?315 -!urprise: he Economy isn't As Bad As

)ou hink0 http:$$time.com$;3331$surprise6the6economy6isnt6as6ad6as6you6think$ Access 4$1 A9,

http://time.com/3000991/surprise-the-economy-isnt-as-bad-as-you-think/http://time.com/3000991/surprise-the-economy-isnt-as-bad-as-you-think/


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Jur outloo( shines com)ared ith that of the rest of the industriali7edorld! as >uro)e and "a)an are stagnant* 5he $%%L economic crisis and0reat Recession forced ides)read restructuring throughout the U*S*economy–not unli(e a com)any gritting its teeth through a lifesavingban(ru)tcy* anufacturing costs are don* 5he ban(ing system has been

reca)itali7ed* 5he e6cess and abuse that de8ned the housing mar(et aregone* And it-s all being turbocharged by an energy boom nobody sacoming* /t-s not just economic trends that are loo(ing u)9 crime rates!teen )regnancy and carbon emissions are donF )ublic.educationoutcomes are im)roving dramaticallyF in4ation in health care costs is at ahalf.century lo* 5hat )oints to something / did not foresee last year9 thatthe social health of America seems to be mending* Americans may still feeldiscontented! but inter is 8nally over*


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US economy im)roving – manufacturinganufacturing sector is groing – multi)le arrants0reiner CM2M1& +(reiner Bill. QA *ook At Ganu%acturing Activity uly ?315. 9e. 1 >uly

?315. http:$$www.%ores.com$sites$illgreiner$?315$34$3$a6look6at6manu%acturing6activity6in6the6united6states6huJn6and6puJn$S. Bill (reiner is the chie% investmentoJcer o% Gariner 9ealth Advisors and the %ormer chie% investment oJcer o% !coutapan the #nited !tates sports very low interest rates in relation to other less6developedcountries.T *aor6to6capital investment decision – 8erhaps the iggest development %avoring #.!. manu%acturers

versus their %oreign competitors is the outright structure o% the %actory Yoor. Po longer a haven %or wrench6turnersand unskilled laor the modern %actory Yoor is stafed with industrial roots computers and instrument precisiontools. /ewer workers are needed in today's modern %actory than in the past. hose who are working at the %actoryo%ten need skills laorers o% the past didn't re"uire – and skills many %oreign %actory workers don't possess. hese

changes have reduced the headcount needed in many manu%acturing operations. Automation andtechnological advancement has een put to work in the modern %actory Yoorsigni&cantly reducing the low cost6o%6laor advantage o% many less6developedmanu%acturing economies. T ransportation – (enerally it costs less to ship goods withinthe #nited !tates than ring them across the 8aci&c Lcean via ship. @onse"uentlymany domestic manu%acturers have a uilt6in advantage on transportation costs ascompared to their %oreign competition.


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US economy im)roving – job groth'abor mobility im)roving job numbers – energy sector )roves0illes)ie! "une $I $%1& +8atrick (illespie -Energy oom %uels economicgrowth in Gidwest states0


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US economy im)roving – in4ation in chec(/n4ation is coming no! but measures are in )lace to sto) it*Robb "un 2[Garket9atch V(reg -Boston /ed president lays out cautious eCitplan Relative calm in markets now may not last0 >une ?315 accessed >uly 1

?315 http:$$www.marketwatch.com$story$oston6%ed6president6lays6out6cautious6eCit6plan6?31563763link=G9pulseWRG

Eric Rosengren the )resident of the Boston +ed! said that the benignmar(et reaction to the gradual ta)ering of the central ban(-s bond.buying)rogram this year o:ered lessons to )olicyma(ers ne idea for a cautiouse6it might be for the +ed to sloly sto) reinvesting in its mortgage)ortfolio instead of the current e6it strategy that calls for sto))ingreinvestment all at once! he said. 5he +ed could announce it ould reinvestall but a given )ercentage of securities on the balance sheet as they reachmaturity and increase that )ercentage at every meeting assumingconditions allow he said. he /ed has een trimming the siMe o% the monthly ond

purchases y U13 illion at every meeting this year. 5hey are e6)ected tocontinue this ta)ering at their )olicy meeting ne6t ee( . Rosengren'sremarks made in 0uatemala are the &nal /ed speech e%ore that meeting A%terswooning last year when the /ed started hinting at a tapering mar(ets haveta(en the actual ta)ering in stride. he yield on 1%.year 5reasurys 1%QP>AR%*C3 have recently bounced o: an 11.month lo. his might not lastRosengren said. @e should all ac(noledge the )ossibility that this relativecalm may be challenged in the future! he said. 5he eventual e6it fromvery lo interest rates around much of the globe ill also beun)recedented and will thus hold challenges %or communication andunderstanding0 he said. +inancial mar(ets are )laying close attention to the

+ed-s e6it strategy )lans. 5he ta)ering is e6)ected to end in the fourthquarter. and /ed oJcials have said they don't eCpect the &rst rate hike until neCtsummer. /n his s)eech Rosengren said he won't support a rate hike until theeconomy is -within one year0 o% reaching the central ank's twin goals o% %ullemployment and ?N annual inYation. Rosengren who is not a voting memer o% the+ed committee this year! said an unem)loyment rate of I*$I is hisde8nition of full em)loyment* 5he +ed-s latest )rojections for the economyreleased in arch see a I*$ unem)loyment rate in $%1#*


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US economy im)roving – ,onsumer con8dence USeconomy im)roving – consumer s)ending

5he US economy is groing – consumer con8dence is all timehigh

uti(ani #M$&M1& +Gutikani *ucia. Q@onsumer @on&dence Iousing DataBolster #.!. (rowth Lutlook.Q Reuters. homson Reuters ?5 >une ?315. 9e. 1 >uly?315. http:$$www.reuters.com$article$?315$37$?5$us6usa6economy6id#!HBP3E1HX?31537?5S. *ucia Gutikani is a ournalist and writer at Reuters.com/red,.

+Reuters, 6 #.!. consumer con&dence umped to its highest level in nearly 761$? yearsin >une and sales o% new homes surged in Gay the latest signs that the economyhas regained momentum.T (rowth is accelerating a%ter crumling in the &rst"uarter ut uesdayKs roust reports likely eCaggerate the strength. Pevertheless they added to data onemployment %actory and services sector activity in suggesting a sharp growth reound.T Qhis is convincing

evidence that the economy continues to eCpandQ said @hris Rupkey chie% &nancialeconomist at Bank o% okyo6Gitsuishi #/> in Pew )ork. Qanuary ?33%rom ?.? in Gay as households grew more optimistic aout the laor market.T hereading however was at odds with another survey pulished last week which showed consumer sentiment tickingdown in early >une. !till economists said it was in line with other data showing an improvement in o marketconditions.T anuary 1?. Iowever new homes sales data are notoriously volatile ecause they are drawn %rom a

small sample and last monthKs ump likely overstates the pace o% improvement.T Pew home salesincreased in all %our regions. hey hit a siC6year high in the Gidwest and were thehighest since >une ?33 in the !outh.

,onsumer s)ending increasing – (ey to overall economyitchell and orath! #M$#M1& +>osh and Eric -#.!. @onsumer !pendingRises on Iigher ones Business Pews >une ?7 ?315http:$$www.nasda".com$article$us6consumer6spending6rises6on6higher6inYation6?31537?7633;;iCMM;4slBtHdh,

The report offered the latest clues the recovery got back on track in the spring after a big contraction in

economic output during the first quarter. Stronger job gains in recent months appear to be lifting household

incomes, boosting overall economic growth.

But the weakness in consumer spending, if sustained, could restrain economic growth in the coming months.Consumer spending is the biggest piece of economic output in the U.S.

Broader trends portray an economy struggling to build momentum five years after the recession. Personal

spending was up just 3.7% in May from the prior year, and personal income was up 3.5%. During the 1990s and

mid-2000s, spending and income growth typically exceeded 5% a year.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-consumer-spending-rises-on-higher-inflation-20140626-00383#ixzz37slBtKdhhttp://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-consumer-spending-rises-on-higher-inflation-20140626-00383#ixzz37slBtKdhhttp://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-consumer-spending-rises-on-higher-inflation-20140626-00383#ixzz37slBtKdhhttp://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-consumer-spending-rises-on-higher-inflation-20140626-00383#ixzz37slBtKdh


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,onsumer s)ending reboundingReuters! "uly 1# $%1& +-#! economic recovery not yet complete says /edchairman0 http:$$www.scmp.com$usiness$economy$article$1222345$us6economic6recovery6not6yet6complete6says6%ed6chairman accessed tm 4$17$15,

A gauge of consumer s)ending rose last month! in the latest sign theeconomy ended the second quarter 8rmer. he Department o% @ommerce saidcore sales which eCclude cars petrol uilding materials and %ood servicesincreased 3.7 per cent last month a%ter rising a revised 3.? per cent in Gay.

http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1555074/us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman%20accessed%20tm%207/16/14


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US economy im)roving – terrestrial energy5errestrial energy groing – hel)ing overall economic recovery0illes)ie! "une $I $%1& +8atrick (illespie -Energy oom %uels economicgrowth in Gidwest states0


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+ecurities in /harlotte, #./. &ssuming that prices stay relatively stable, ' think we can e!pectcontinued growth.*


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0lobal >conomy U. im)roving;rojections sho US and develo)ing orld im)roved economy5he Star Nes CM1L +he !tar Pews. Q!chroders !ees 9orld Economy@ontinuing to Recover.Q hestaronline.com. P.p. 1 >uly ?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315.

httpN;AN?/N?/www.thestar.com.myN?/BusinessN?/Business6PewsN?/?315N?/34N?/1N?/!chroders6sees6world6economy6continuing6to6recoverN?/S. he !tar Pews is a news company ased in 9ashington that reports on dailyevents. here are a numer o% ranches throughout the #!. /red,.

H#A*A *#G8#R: !chroders %orecasts the world economy to continue to recover with thegrowth in the developed countries spreading to the emerging markets as tradepicks up.T


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the gloal recovery0 it said. T Although in the near6term there is limited room %or re6rating given themarket has priced in a enign environment.


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US economy not im)roving


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US economy not im)roving – laundry listUS economy still lo. housing and long term unem)loyment

?ohl 1&

David Hohl is a pro%essor in &nance usiness management and anking at Oirginia ech6-Economic indicators and con%using signals0 @orn and !oyean Digest Road 9arrior6 Gay ?4?315 http:$$cornandsoyeandigest.com$log$economic6indicators6and6con%using6signals

he #.!. economy is showing miCed signals. he lead economic indeC +*E


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US economy not im)roving – unem)loyment high "obs numbers inaccurate – higher rate than re)orted meanseconomy not so great

Brody 1&

Rachel Brody work with the #! and Pew Report6 -Oiews )ou @an #se: +Gostly, (ood Pews on >os06 #! Pews6 >uly ; ?315 http:$$www.usnews.com$opinion$articles$?315$34$3;$mostly6good6news6on6une6os6and6unemployment6numers

Gany cheered hursday's early os report which handily eat out economists' eCpectations. he#.!. added ?333 os in >une aout 4;333 more os than were originallypredicted and the unemployment rate %ell to 7.1 percent its lowest rate since ?33. _uartM's Gatt8hillips welcomed the news. -Actual progressb 9e're 513333 os into a real laor marketeCpansion0 he tweeted. Pot only is overall unemployment down ut long6termunemployment is dropping as well he noted. +he 9all !treet >ournal reports itKs down 1.? million people %rom?31;., 9age growth however isn't looking too hot.


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US economy not im)roving – de8cit s)ending highBudget de8cit high – (ey to international )erce)tion of thedollarunter CM13 +Iunter (reg. QBudget De&cit ECploding Lut o% @ontrol 6>ohn

9illiams.QGreg Hunters USAWatchdog. P.p. 1; >uly ?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315.http:$$usawatchdog.com$udget6de&cit6eCploding6out6o%6control6ohn6williams$S. (reg Iunter is a writer %or usawatchdogs.com /red,.

Economist >ohn 9illiams says don't e %ooled y the new highs on the Dow.@illiams contends! 5he economy is still in serious trouble* 5he ban(ingsystem is still in serious trouble* 5he budget de8cit is e6)loding out ofcontrol.0 9illiams thinks the ongoing anking crisis in @yprus has gloalimplications. 9illiams says -)ou have a precedence set in @yprus that they canseiMe the %unds. hey will not guarantee all deposits.


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US economy not im)roving – consumer s)endinglo

'o consumer s)ending – ages not (e)t u) ith increasedcost

Shah 13 +!hah Peil. Q!tagnant 9ages Are @rimping Economic (rowth.Q he 9all!treet >ournal. Dow >ones ] @ompany ?2 Aug. ?31;. 9e. 1 >uly ?315.http:$$online.ws.com$news$articles$!B133315?51?44;?;3735243???4?24;34?3S. Peil !hah covers the #.!. economy and demographics %rom he 9all!treet >ournalKs Pew )ork oJce. /red,.

Americans are spending enough to keep the economy rolling ut donKt eCpect themto splurge unless their paychecks start to grow. T /our years into the economicrecovery #.!. workersK pay still isnKt even keeping up with inYation. he averagehourly pay %or a nongovernment non6supervisory worker adusted %or price increases declined to U.44last month %rom U.2 at the end o% the recession in >une ?33 *aor Department data show .T !tagnant

wages erode the spending power o% consumers. hat means it is harder %or them tomake purchases ranging %rom re%rigerators to restaurant meals that account %or most o% thenationKs economic growth.T Economists lame three %actors:T Economic growth remainssluggish advancing at a seasonally adusted annual pace o% less than ?N %or three straight "uarters[elow theprerecession average o% ;.2N. hat efectively has put a lid on inYation which has een near or elow the ?N levelthe /ederal Reserve considers healthy %or the economy. 9ith demand %or laor low prices not rising %ast and 11.2million unemployed searching %or work employers arenKt under pressure to raise wages to retain or attractworkers.T Enlarge


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US economy not im)roving – )roductivity shrin(ing

;roductivity (ey to global economy – jobs don-t matter if not)roductive

0iles 1&

@hris (iles has een the economics editor o% the /inancial imes since ?335. Ie studiesnational economic trends.08roductivity crisis haunts gloal economy06 /inancial imes(loal Economy >anuary 15 ?315 http:$$www.%t.com$cms$s$3$c3ea?a?64d1611e;6a24633155%eadc3.htmlaCMM;4pM4ugBu

Iigh "uality gloal ournalism re"uires investment. A productivity crisis is stalking the gloal economywith most countries %ailing last year to improve their overall eJciency %or the &rst time indecades.


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where VinnovativeW &rms do not see huge risks in taking on these people.0 Emerging economies saw rates o%growth o% productivity %all %rom eCtraordinarily rapid rates even though the rate o%growth at ;.; per cent was still much higher than in advanced economies. /or @hina the@on%erence Board said that while -the statistical in%ormation %or the latest years is sketchy theindications are that sustained investment growth in @hina has not een

accompanied y the eJciency gains +measured y total %actor productivity growth, similar to those o% the

previous decade0. Gr van Ark said he eCpected productivity growth to pick up in ?315 as demandconditions improved leading to %aster growth o% outputs than inputs ut the relatively weak productivitygrowth outlook to persist


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>nvironmental investment noJbama is )ushing for clean tech noelt7er 1&66/ellow in (loal Economy and Development Brookings ohns Iopkins !chool %or Advanced


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>nvironmental regulations no>nvironmental regulations e6ist no – clean ater act

art and ,avanagh! $%1$+Environmental !tandards (ive the #nited !tates an Edge Lver @hina: Chinese Citizens Still FacingHealth Threats We Addressed Decades Ago, Gelanie Iart and >efrey @avanagh April ?3 ?31? GelanieIart is a Director %or @hinese Energy and @limate 8olicy at American 8rogress. !he %ocuses on @hina'sscience and technology development policies %or energy innovation as well as its domestic energyeJciency program environmental regulatory regime and domestic and international responses togloal climate change.

Environmental pollution is a negative byproduct of some production processes,

particularly those processes that use older, less efficient technology. In a market

economy, companies always have a natural pro&t incentive to make money[the more they

make the more eCecutives and employees get to keep and spend on themselves[ut they

do not always have a natural incentive to protect the environment by switching from

outdated, dirty technologies to cleaner, more sustainable versions. hat is ecause

environmental costs are orn y the local community and the local community has no say

over company production decisions. Lne way we can ensure companies take environmental

costs into account is to put a price on caron. Another is to use government regulations.

Thus far, the United States has not succeeded in rolling out a nationwide carbon

pricing system, but we do have a nationwide environmental regulatory system. o e

efective that type o% system needs three critical components. /irst we need standards

that stipulate the amounts and types of pollutants we are willing to accept in our air,

water, soil, food, and consumer products such as children's toys.


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http:$$thehill.com$usiness6a6loying$usiness6a6loying$?1?2??6k6street6eyes6spending6ills6to6stop6oamaiCMM;4"O/P133 accessed 4$1$15 WRG

Repulican lama(ers have included language to bloc( funding for a host of ne rules in a))ro)riations bills! and many of the )rovisions could survivein an overarching omnibus bill funding the government later this year*

'egislation )assed by the ouse A))ro)riations ,ommittee ould ni6 or)ost)one controversial regulations on everything from school nutritionstandards to the disclosure of cor)orate )olitical giving to carbonemissions from )oer )lants. he agriculture appropriations ill even aims toan horsemeat y prohiiting %ederal dollars %rom eing used to inspect %acilitiesthat slaughter the animals. @ith the Senate having failed to )ass anya))ro)riations bills! a sto)ga) funding e:ort T (non as a continuingresolution T a))ears li(ely to fund the government until after theelection* -;utting ne items in a ,R Vcontinuing resolutionW is something thatis diEcult to achieve! said one former aide to both the ouse and SenateA))ro)riations )anels* /f there is a really strong argument for including

something in a ,R! they ill! but itKs a hard hill to climb* A))ro)riators li(eclean bills.0 A%ter the stopgap ill the real action on a 8nal budget deal illbegin* @ith the hel) of high.)oered ? Street lobbyists! industry grou)sill be )ushing ,ongress to address their )et issue in a s)endingagreement. ;rovisions that ere already included in the a))ro)riationsbills could be revived at that stage [ ut only if both )arties agree tothem* Democrats are unli(ely to acce)t many of the )rovisions from theouse a))ro)riations bills! including the ones that aim to sto) the>nvironmental ;rotection Agency-s limits on carbon emissions [ rules thatare the centerpiece o% 8resident Lama's second6term agenda. Re)ublicans arealso 8ghting an >;A rule they say unduly e6)ands the >;A-s authority over

streams and other smaller bodies of ater* /armers and ranchers have saidthe rule could e devastating to their usinesses. -his is a way to limit the E8A'sde&nition o% what constitute the 9aters o% the #nited !tates0 said Don 8arrishdirector o% regulations at the American /arm Bureau /ederation who said he hasloied oth Repulicans and Democrats on the issue. -9e see this as a huge issueand something that will have signi&cant implications on %armers and ranchers0 hesaid.

US abandons stricter air )ollution rules – limiting regulationsBroder +>ohn G. Broder reporter on energy and environment issues %or the9ashington ureau o% he Pew )ork imes, Z11

V-Lama Administration Aandons !tricter Air6_uality Rules0 P) Environment13$?$11 http:$$www.nytimes.com$?311$3$3;$science$earth$3;air.htmlpagewanted=all]r=3 accessed: 4$1$15W

8resident Lama aandoned a contentious new air pollution rule on /riday uoyingusiness interests that had loied heavily against it angering environmentalists

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/212522-k-street-eyes-spending-bills-to-stop-obama#ixzz37qVFN100,%20accessed%207/18/14%20]RMThttp://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/212522-k-street-eyes-spending-bills-to-stop-obama#ixzz37qVFN100,%20accessed%207/18/14%20]RMThttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/science/earth/03air.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/science/earth/03air.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/212522-k-street-eyes-spending-bills-to-stop-obama#ixzz37qVFN100,%20accessed%207/18/14%20]RMThttp://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/212522-k-street-eyes-spending-bills-to-stop-obama#ixzz37qVFN100,%20accessed%207/18/14%20]RMThttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/science/earth/03air.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/science/earth/03air.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


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who called the move a etrayal and unnerving his own top environmentalregulators. he president reected a proposed rule %rom the Environmental8rotection Agency that would have signi&cantly reduced emissions o% smog6causingchemicals saying that it would impose too severe a urden on industry and localgovernments at a time o% economic distress.T Business groups and Repulicans in

@ongress had complained that meeting the new standard which governs emissionso% so6called ground6level oMone would cost illions o% dollars and hundreds o%thousands o% os.


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No Ne s)ending>ven if there are )ro)osals! )olitical gridloc( ma(es nes)ending im)ossible0rahammar 1&[!enior associate editor at he Atlantic where he oversees the

8olitics @hannel. Ie previously reported %or Pewsweek he 9all !treet >ournal and he Pational.VDAO


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US /m)roving – De8cit is under controlde8cit )rojected declinein $%1& and $%1ISahadi 1& +!ahadi >eanne. QDe&cit @ontinues to Drop !harply.Q @PPGoney. @ale Pews Petwork 35 /e.?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315. http:$$money.cnn.com$?315$3?$35$news$economy$udget6outlook6de&cits6co$S. >eanne!ahadi is a writer and reporter %or @PP that writes aout the economy and money. /red,.

he age o% trillion6dollar de&cits is well over. /or now.T hanks to a recoveringeconomy spending restraint and higher taC receipts the @ongressional Budget LJce nowproects the de&cit %or ?315 will e U215 illion or ;N o% the siMe o% the #.!. economy.T As ashare o% gross domestic product that represents a nearly ?4N drop %rom last yearand marks the smallest de&cit since ?334. T uly ?315. 9e. 1 >uly ?315.http:$$www.usnews.com$news$usiness$articles$?315$34$11$white6house6?3156de&cit6to6drop6to62;S. Andrew aylor is a reporter %or the associated press. /red,.

9A!Iohn Boehner o% Lhio have %ailed though Lama was success%ul in muscling through ataC hike on wealthier earners in early ?31;. ight spending on annual agencyudgets is also responsile %or lower de&cits.T he nonpartisan @ongressional Budget LJceproects an even lower de&cit o% U5? illion %or the udget year ending !ept. ;3.T he 9hite Iouse has alsolowered its economic growth %orecast %or the current year to ?.7 percent reYecting the uneCpected ?. percent dropin gross domestic product in the &rst "uarter o% this year.


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Ne s)ending in SMincreased de8cits long termNon. unique ne s)ending coming on entitlements – illsquee7e rest of the budget in the S;ianin! "uly 1# $%1& +Eric he /iscal imes

http:$$www.the&scaltimes.com$Articles$?315$34$17$@BL69arns6#nchecked6Entitlement6!pending6#nsustainale accessed tm 4$1,

There’s more bad news for President Obama: The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office warned

Tuesday in its annual budget outlook that unchecked spending on Medicare, Social Security and other

entitlement programs is “unsustainable” and will eventually drive the federally held debt to historic levels –

and threaten the economy.

While the administration last week celebrated an improving economy and steadily declining budget deficit, the new

CBO report says the long-term debt could reach the equivalent of 100 percent of the overall economy within 25

years. Publicly held debt, by contrast, currently equals about 74 percent of the Gross Domestic Product.

At the same time, most other government programs and services – so-called discretionary spending that is

essential to the smooth operation of government – would be severely squeezed.

After several more years of declining deficits and overall debt, budget deficits will begin to rise again. “Debt

would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy, a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely,”

says the CBO’s 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

ore s)ending no – and future demands bust de8cits;ianin! "uly 1# $%1& +Eric he /iscal imeshttp:$$www.the&scaltimes.com$Articles$?315$34$17$@BL69arns6#nchecked6

Entitlement6!pending6#nsustainale accessed tm 4$1,

/n addition! federal revenues ould gro substantially under current laas a )ercentage of the overall economy – at a faster rate than any time inmemory* "evenues would e9ual 62.: percent of ;$P by 4572, compared to an average of 63.: percent over the past four decades, the report stated.

>ven so! the re)ort said! s)ending ould soon begin to out)ace revenuesby increasing amounts relative to 0D; and in turn generate higher budgetde8cits*

+ederal debt held by the )ublic is )rojected to gro faster than the

economy starting a fe years from no! and because debt is alreadyunusually high relative to 0D;! further increases could be es)eciallyharmful! the report stated.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainablehttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/16/CBO-Warns-Unchecked-Entitlement-Spending-Unsustainable


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0roth Uniqueness – unstainable


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No groth noNo groth no – recent re)ort sho shar) declineIouse 7$?2$15 +>onathan -#.!. Economy !hrinks y Gost in /ive )ears0 9!>http:$$online.ws.com$articles$u6s6gdp6contracted6at6?66pace6in6&rst6"uarter6153;7733,

0ross domestic )roduct! the broadest measure of goods and services)roduced across the economy! fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of$*2 in the 8rst quarter, the /ommerce $epartment said in its third reading of the data)ednesday. 5hat as a shar) donard revision from the )revious estimatethat out)ut fell at an annual rate of 1* /t also re)resented the fastestrate of decline since the recession! and as the largest dro) recordedsince the end of @orld @ar // that asnKt )art of a recession* o be sure, manysigns since 0arch, including reports of growth in consumer spending, business investment andhiring, indicate the first 9uarter doesnconomics Northester! $%1$ +Roert -

2@hatever the future of innovation! the U*S* economy still faces si6daunting headinds that ill limit future )otential groth and hold itbelo the )ace hich innovation ould otherise ma(e )ossible. Recallthat /igure 1 the graph with the lue and red step6like representation o% growth rates o% real per6capita (D8 over long intervals included a %orecast. he &naldownward step assumed that growth in real (D8 per capita would slow %rom theactual 1. percent rate recorded during 146?334 to a lower 1.5 percent rate.11

his slowdown in growth already takes into account the &rst two headwinds. hedemogra)hic dividend is no in reverse motion* he original dividendwas another one6time6only event the movement o% %emales into the laor %orceetween 172 and 13 which raised hours per capita and allowed real per6

capita real (D8 to grow %aster than output per hour* But no the baby.boomers are retiring! no longer included in the tally of total hours ofor( but still included in the )o)ulation* 5hus hours )er ca)ita are nodeclining! and any tendency for life e6)ectancy to gro relative to theaverage retirement age ill further augment this headind* Byde8nition! henever hours )er ca)ita decline! then out)ut )er ca)itamust gro more sloly than )roductivity* 5he second headind alreadyta(en into account in the $%%C.$C forecast is the )lateau in educationalattainment in the #.!. reached more than ?3 years ago as highlighted in the

http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-2-9-pace-in-first-quarter-1403699600http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-2-9-pace-in-first-quarter-1403699600http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315%20accessed%20tm%207-16http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-2-9-pace-in-first-quarter-1403699600http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-2-9-pace-in-first-quarter-1403699600http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315%20accessed%20tm%207-16


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path6reaking work o% @laudia (olden and *awrence HatM +?33,. he #.!. issteadily slipping down the international league tales in the percentage o% itspopulation o% a given age which has completed higher education. his cominesseveral prolems. Lne is the cost disease in higher education that is the rapidincrease in the price o% college tuition relative to the prices o% other goods. hiscost inYation in turn leads to mounting student det which is increasingly

distorting career choices and deterring low6income people %rom going to collegeat all. Pot everyody gets a scholarship.

Rising inequality curtails economic groth0ordon! De)artment of >conomics Northester! $%1$ +Roert -

5he most im)ortant quantitatively in holding don the groth of ourfuture income is rising inequality* 5he groth in median real income has

been substantially sloer than all of these groth rates of average )er.ca)ita income discussed thus far. he Berkeley we site o% Emmanuel !aeMprovides the startling &gures. /rom 1; to ?33 the average growth in real household income was 1.; percent per year. But %or the ottom N growth wasonly 3.42 a gap o% 3.22 percent per year. 5he to) one )ercent of the incomedistribution ca)tured fully I$ of the income gains during that 1I.year)eriod* /f hat e care about hen e tal( about consumer ellbeing is the bottom 22 )ercent! then e must deduct %*II )ercent fromthe average groth rates of real 0D; )er ca)ita )resented here andelsehere*

Recession decreased consum)tion – & reasons;etev! ;isaferri! and >(sten 11 +


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increase in uncertainty! a decline in consumer con8dence hich may havereduced s)ending through accumulation of )recautionary savings +or reductiono% det, as ell as deferment of s)ending! most notably on durables* 5hird!changes in relative )rices! es)ecially gasoline! may have reverberated onboth the consum)tion of gasoline as ell as of its com)lementary goods

li(e cars and trans)ortation services* /inally the credit crunch that folloedthe 8nancial crisis may have )revented some households from )urchasinggoods that are ty)ically acquired through borroing! such as cars or other ig6ticket items.


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,olla)se economy inevitable Mmindset shift)ossible

0roth is unsustainable. transitioning no is (eyAssadourian 1$ GLO< P( L9AR D ! # !A< PAB *E 8 RL! 8ER


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1. he Earth is &nite in siMe.

?. 8opulation and economic growth must cease.


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of the )lanet with respect to climate change nitrogen loadings and iodiversity loss and threatens to do so withsiC other maor gloal environmental issues?. his eCcessive urden on Earth can e traced to the massive increasein the materials %ossil %uels and iomass used y the worldKs economies. GankindKs KthroughputK [ the sheer weighto% materials including %uel that %eed the worldKs economies [ has increased 33N in the twentieth century; witha correspondingly large increase in wastes returned to the environment.


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0roth uniqueness . sustainable!ee section on #! economy improving


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US ?ey to 0lobal RecoveryUS ?ey to 0lobal >conomic Recovery+an VCM1%M1& +9ang /anF @hina Daily 9e EditorF ?315634613F Ginister: #! KkeyKto gloal recoveryF @hina DailyFhttp:$$wecache.googleusercontent.com$search

"=cache:http:$$www.ecns.cn$usiness$?315$34613$1?;;?2.shtmlF 4$1$15F >X,

A global economic recovery rests mainly on the United StatesK shoulders+inance inister 'ou "iei said on 9ednesday. QA global recovery requires jointe:orts from many countries! but the (ey lies ith the USQ *ou told reporters on the&rst day o% the annual @hina6#! !trategic and Economic Dialogue in Beiing. Q@hina is eCperiencing a transition %roma high6growth model to a medium6high6growth model. 9e are now %ocusing more on the Knew normK o% structural

re%orm. QSo the scenario is unli(ely to recur in hich ,hina contributes to half of the orldKs groth in the a%termath o% the ?33 &nancial crisis.Q he @hinese government hasrepeatedly said it would not roll out an intensive stimulus program a%ter the nationKs gross domestic product growthin the &rst "uarter dipped to 4.5 percent an 16month low. une ? ?315F Garchionne !ays #.!. Hey o (loal(rowthF Around the PetF Gedia 8ostFhttp:$$www.mediapost.com$pulications$article$??435$marchionne6says6us6key6to6gloal6growth.htmlF 4$1$15F >X,

REPL J Sergio archionne said a

good )erformance by its U*S* o)erations ill be crucial for the success ofthe com)anyKs recently announced business )lan* he automaker launched a reakneckgloal growth efort last month uilt around its >eep Al%a Romeo and Gaserati rands. he usiness plan aims to

oost sales y 73 percent and increase net pro&t &ve6%old y ?31. Q5he e6ecution of the


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ecome the world seventh6largest carmaker. he group is preparing to move its main listing %rom Gilan to Pew )orky the end o% this year. Garchionne said @hryslerKs &nancial strength and commercial clout overseas would help /iatoost sales o% Al%a Romeo which under the plan will uild eight new models y the end o% ?31 thanks toinvestments worth 2 illion euros +U7. illion,. QLn /riday < saw the prototype %or one o% the new models engineersare developing in secret and < can say we are on the right trackQ he said adding that the model would proaly eunveiled in the third "uarter o% neCt year. Garchionne con&rmed that all Al%a Romeo cars would e produced atR and 0RUB>N %3 +RLBER G@EER APD 9


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'in( debate – Y hurts theeconomyMe6)ensive

Note about lin( cards – some cards assume regulation harmsthe ability of the economy to function* Some lin( cards areabout the e6)ense of the )rogram or com)liance ith theregulation is e6)ensive* Some tal( about both – thus! e didnot se)arate the various lin( cards you ould use for the DAs –but! for e6am)le! if you are reading the s)ending DA! readingregulation lin( ev on-t hel) you*

Pou can use these lin( cards to lin( turn advantages as ellhen teams claim they solve economic groth


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Shift to reneable energy hurt economic grothReneable energy overly e6)ensive and detrimental to theeconomy – even if they in their )lan is cost e:ectiveintegration into the grid creates )ublic e6)ense

Bryce 1$ nergy ;olicy the >nvironment Re)ort Z 5> /0 ,JS5 J+R>N>@AB'> >'>,5R/,/5P ANDA5>S*O >nergy ;olicy the >nvironment Re)ort Z 5> /0 ,JS5 J+R>N>@AB'> >'>,5R/,/5P ANDA5>S* N*)*! 1% +eb* $%1$* @eb* 1C "uly $%1&* [htt)9MM*manhattan.institute*orgMhtmlMe)erQ1%*htm\* Robert Bryce is a senior fello ith the ,enter for >nergy ;olicy andthe >nvironment at the anhattan /nstitute* e has been riting about energy for to decades! andhis articles have a))eared in numerous )ublications ranging from 5he @all Street "ournal to 5heNation and the Atlantic onthly to the @ashington ;ost* +redM"ohnM>ric=*

Gotivated y a desire to reduce caron emissions and in the asence o% %ederal action to do so ? states +and theDistrict o% @olumia and 8uerto Rico, have re"uired utility companies to deliver speci&ed minimum amounts o%electricity %rom QrenewaleQ sources including wind and solar power. @ali%ornia recently adopted the most stringento% these so6called renewale port%olio standards +R8!, re"uiring ;; percent o% its electricity to e renewale y?3?3.T 8roponents o% the R8! plans say that the mandated restrictions will reduce harm%ul emissions and spur ogrowth y stimulating investment in green technologies.T But this patchwork o% state rules[which now afects theelectricity ills o% aout two6thirds o% the #.!. population as well as countless usinesses and industrial users[has

sprung up in recent years without the ene&t o% the states %ully calculating their costs.T here is growingevidence that the costs may e too high[that the price tag %or purchasingrenewale energy and %or uilding new transmission lines to deliver it may notonly outweigh any environmental ene&ts ut may also e detrimental to theeconomy costing os rather than adding them. T he mandates amount to a Qack6end way to put a price on caronQ says one %ormer %ederal regulator. 8ut anotherway the higher cost o% electricity is essentially a de %acto caron6reduction taC onethat is putting a strain on a struggling economy and is %alling most heavily in the waythat regressive taCes do on the least well6of among residential users. T o e sure the mandates arenKt the onlyreason that electricity costs are rising[increased regulation o% coal6&red power plants is also a maor %actor[and itis diJcult to isolate the cost o% the renewale mandates without rigorous cost6ene&t analysis y the states.T hatsaid our analysis o% availale data has revealed a pattern o% starkly higher rates in most states with R8! mandates

compared with those without mandates. he gap is particularly striking in coal6dependent states[seven suchstates with R8! mandates saw their rates soar y an average o% 25.? percent etween ?331 and ?313 more thantwice the average increase eCperienced y seven other coal6dependent states without mandates.T Lur studyhighlights another pattern as well o% a disconnect etween the optimistic estimates y government policymakers o% the impact that the mandates will have on rates and the harsh reality o% the soaring rates that typically result. oe @omo acting director o% the Division o%Ratepayer Advocates an independent consumer advocacy arm o% the @ali%ornia 8ulic #tility @ommission. Q


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Algae Biofuels e6)ensive

Algae biofuel tech is e6)ensive – e are nohere near havinggood enough tech for it to remain com)etitive

?anellos 2 +Gichael writes aout energy transportation %ood and data %or /ores ?$;$?33 (reen echGedia -Algae Biodiesel:


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but by eating sugars that ere gron in the sun* OAlgae is by far the bestorganism on the )lanet for converting 86ed carbon into oil!O he said. QButeconomically! others are more eEcient at ta(ing sunlight and carbondio6ide and turning it into oil*O

Studies )rove algae biofuels suc( – unreliability andmaintenance drives u) costsRichardson et al 13 +>ames 9. Richardson and Gyriah D. >ohnson: Agricultural ] /ood 8olicy @enterFDepartment o% Agricultural EconomicsF eCas A]G #niversity XueMhi hang 8eter emke and _iang Iu:*aoratory %or Algae Research and BiotechnologyF @ollege o% echnology and Y costs for the JR; system are 3% greater than the ;BR

due largely to greater maintenance and labor costs associated ith alarger farm* Biomass )roduction is I2 more variable for the JR; than the;BR due to a greater )robability of crashes and the over investment in)roduction ca)acity to ensure observing the assumed average annual oil)roduction of I%!%%% 5* he increased relative risk %or iomass production coupled with higherrelative risk in lipid content %or LR8s leads to greater asolute and relative risk %or total annual lipid production. heresults show that relative risk associated with producing 23333 G o% lipid per year is 7N greater %or LR8s.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211926413001215http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211926413001215http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211926413001215


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/ron +ertili7ation e6)ensive – costs and long termmaintenance

/ron fertili7ation isn-t the best o)tion – other tech is chea)erand e ould have to (ee) dum)ing foreverUniversity of Sydney 1$

+1?$1?$1? -


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enrichment study an area o% 1I (m$ as seeded ith iron! resulting in a carbonsequestration of about 2%% tonnes of carbon* 5his is a very small)ro)ortion of the carbon released due to human activities +7.2 C 13 tonnes$year,such that it is diEcult to see ho iron fertili7ation could scale u) to be ane:ective carbon sequestration method. Lther practical prolems using continuous iron%ertiliMation as a caron se"uestration technology include the %act that the macronutrients nitrate phosphorous and

silica would ecome depleted and would there%ore prevent the ongoing growth o% phytoplankton. stimates shoed that itould require an im)ossibly large area to be fertili7ed each yeararth-s surface]= to have any signi8cantim)act as a carbon sequestration technology* Oeri%ying the "uantity o% caron se"uestered%rom iron %ertiliMation is also likely to e diJcult +i% not impossile, ecause o% the large spatial and temporal scales

involved. /t is also li(ely that commercial.scale iron fertili7ation ould be

)rohibitively e6)ensive because of the cost of the large.scale monitoring)rograms hich ould be needed in order to trace and verify the amountof carbon sequestered! as ell as to monitor for any negative im)actssuch as nitrous o6ide formation! de.o6ygenation or ecological changes*


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energy investments conomic bubbles have been a reoccurring economic cycle in the orldthroughout the history of ca)italism. Recent economic ules that the world has eCperiencedinclude dot6com$telecom real estate stocks and iotech ules. hey date ack to the 13's when the &rstrailroad tracks were laid down in the #nited !tates. he goal was to connect the #nited !tates through economicintegration and development which created a oom in the development o% canals turnpikes railroads and

telephone lines. any of these )rojects ere funded by the government! andno green technology )rojects are funded by them as ell* (loallygovernments are beginning to )romote green technologies through loansand subsidies* 5he ra)id groth the orld has seen in green technology

could be the start of the ne6t big economic bubble* An eCample o% a -green6tech0company that has seen high growth and popularity in the past year is the electric car maker esla. he company isusing popularity and interest in its electric cars to create a micro ule in its stock. ,urrently the carcom)any is trading at about X1C% )er share! hile it has only re)orted)ositive earnings in one quarter throughout its tenure as a )ubliccom)any* o could a com)any be trading at such a high stoc( )rice! butre)ort negative earnings consistentlyG Because investors s)eculate andbelieve there is )otential for high groth in the future*


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,limate mitigation strategies hurts the economy –laundry list

,limate mitigation )olicies hurt economic groth – carbonca)ture )roves

Wictor 11


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will harm American manu%acturing0 Garch 5http:$$www.heritage.org$research$reports$?315$3;$epas6climate6regulations6will6harm6american6manu%acturing last accessed 7.5.15 R(,merica(s manufacturing base will be particularly harmed by the EP(s climate regulations. 0anufacturing accounts for over 775,555 of the %obs lost .>?@ his occurs for a number of reasons.

s more coal generation is taken offline, the marketplace m us t find a way to make up forthat lost supply. he Aeritage Energy 0odel builds in the most cost-effective means of replacing the lostcoal through a combination of consumers decreasing energy use as an ad%ustment to higher prices andincreased power generation from other sources.

anufacturing is an energy.intensive industry! and the im)act of thehigher energy )rices on manufacturing averages to more than CC% jobslosses )er congressional district* oever! not all regions are a:ected thesame! as districts in @isconsin! Jhio! /ndiana! ichigan! and /llinois arees)ecially hit hard*

'n fact, 62 out of the top 45 worse off congressional districts from the dministration(s war

on coal are located in the 0idwest region. 'n those districts, the manufacturing industry, onaverage, will slash more than 6,55 %obs by 4547. he table at the end of the paper shows the estimatesof the decrease of manufacturing employment per congressional district by 4547.

urthermore, manufacturing growth will be harmed as a result of the fuel switching that willoccur to make up for lost coal generation. #atural gas will be diverted away frommanufacturing and to power generation. s a result, the Aeritage Energy model pro%ects that naturalgas prices will increase 48 percent by 4575.

#atural gas and li9uids produced with natural gas provide a feedstock for fertiliCers, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, waste treatment, food processing, fuel for industrial boilers, transportation fuel, and muchmore. he chemical-manufacturing base alone is building 6?8 new operations topping over D655 billion in

response to current and pro%ected low natural gas prices from the shale gas boom.>:@ s the .+. is

e!periencing a renaissance in manufacturing and energy- intensive industries, thedministration(s war on coal could adversely affect merica(s competitive advantage.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturinghttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturinghttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturinghttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturing#_ftn4http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturing#_ftn4http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturing#_ftn5http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturinghttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturinghttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturing#_ftn4http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/03/epas-climate-regulations-will-harm-american-manufacturing#_ftn5


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>nvironment regulations hurt groth – climateregulations )rove

,limate change )olicies hurt the economyThigher energy)rices ould lead to unem)loyment! loer consum)tion

'oris /ellow in Energy and Environment at the Ieritage /oundation $%1&+Picolas he Ieritage /oundation -@limate change: A @ure worse than thedisease0 Gay 1? http:$$www.heritage.org$research$commentary$?315$2$climate6change6a6 cure6worse6than6the6disease last accessed 7.1.15 R(,

@hatKs most troubling is! even if climate change ere occurring at anunsustainable rate! the administrationKs )olicy )rescri)tions ill not 86anything but ill further harm the economy*

5he )ro)osed limits for carbon dio6ide emissions essentially ould)rohibit the construction of ne coal.8red )oer )lants and forcee6isting ones into early retirement! driving u) the cost of energy on

American families and businesses* igher energy )rices shrin()roduction in consum)tion! resulting in less income for families! more

)eo)le in the unem)loyment line and less economic groth* nd even if wewere to stop emitting greenhouse gas emissions entirely, we would not moderate the Earthnvironmental regulations hurt groth – and the environmentAdler $%%L +>onathono 8ro%essor o% *aw and Director @enter %or Business *aw and Regulation at @ase9estern #niversity -Bridge to Powhere0 http:$$www.thenewatlantis.com$pulications$green6ridge6to6nowhere$$Gkoo,

5he 8rst item on his agenda is the re)lacement of modern ca)italism ith some unde8ned non.socialist alternative. -he planet cannot sustain capitalism as we know it0 he warns calling %or a %undamental

trans%ormation. But he does not understand the system he ants to reform! let alone hat he ouldsubstitute in its )lace. According to S)eth! most environmental deterioration isa result of systemic failures of ca)italism* his is an odd claim as the leastca)italist nations of the orld also have the orst environmental records*5he ecological costs of economic statism are far orse than those ofeconomic liberty* 5he environmental record of the various Soviet regimesam)ly bears this out9 5he @est-s ecological nightmares ere the Sovietbloc-s environmental realities* 5his is not due to any anomaly o% the !ovietsystem. Nations ith greater commitment to ca)italist institutionse6)erience greater environmental )erformance* 9hile !peth occasionally acknowledgespockets o% environmental progress he hardly stops to consider the reasons why some environmental resources

have een conserved more efectively than others. +isheries are certainly decliningthroughout much of the orld Tsome CI )ercent of 8sheries are fully or over.e6)loitedTbut not everyhere* /t is orth as(ing hy* 5ro)ical forests in less.develo)ed nations are declining even as most tem)erate forests inindustriali7ed nations are rebounding* Recogni7ing these di:erent trendsand identifying the (ey variables is essential to diagnosing the real causesof environmental deterioration and )rescribing a treatment that ill or(* !peth acknowledges that much of the orld is undergoing demateriali7ation!

http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/5/climate-change-a-http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/5/climate-change-a-http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/green-bridge-to-nowherehttp://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/green-bridge-to-nowherehttp://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/green-bridge-to-nowherehttp://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/5/climate-change-a-http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/5/climate-change-a-http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/green-bridge-to-nowherehttp://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/green-bridge-to-nowhere


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such that economic groth far out)aces increases in resource demand utseems not to appreciate how the ca)italist system he decries creates the incentives thatdrive this trend* @ere it not for mar(et.driven advances in technologicalca)ability and ecological eEciency! humanity-s foot)rint on the >arthould be far greater* 9hile modern civili7ation has developed the means to efect massive

ecological trans%ormations it has also found ays to )roduce ealth hile leavingmore of the natural orld intact* ar(et com)etition generatessubstantial incentives to do more ith lessTthus in mar(et economies esee long and continuing im)rovements in )roductive eEciency* 5his canbe seen everyhere from the re)lacement of co))er ith 8ber o)tics +made%rom silica the chie% component in sand= and the light.eighting of )ac(aging to thee6)losion of agricultural )roductivity and im)rovements in energy eEciency* 'ess material is used and dis)osed of! reducing overallenvironmental im)acts from )roductive activity* 5he (ey to suchim)rovements is the same set of institutional arrangements that S)eth so decries9 )ro)ertyrights and voluntary e6change )rotected by the rule of laTthat is! ca)italism* As research y9heaton @ollege economist !eth Porton and many others has shown societies in hich )ro)ertyrights and economic freedoms are )rotected e6)erience su)erior economicand environmental )erformance than those societies subject to greatergovernment control. conomic +reedom,

published annually by he Aeritage oundation and The Wall Street Journal . 'n

$%1$! the U*S* score dro))edagain! ith the U*S* falling to 1%th )lace* 5his reduction in economicfreedom has been accom)anied by a stagnant economy! )ersistently highunem)loyment! and lethargic economic groth* ;romoting economicfreedom in the United States is essential to groing the economy andcreating jobs for Americans* Aowever, promoting economic freedom abroad is also important for revitaliCing the .+.economy. merica is a global economic power. Encouraging the free flow of goods, services, people, and ideas around the world contributes tomerican prosperity. mericans need ambitious policies that promote economic freedom worldwide, policies that create economic dynamism,and the continual innovation that leads to better products, new markets, and greater investment.

http://www.heritage.org/about/staff/e/the-heritage-foundation-economic-freedom-task-forcehttp://www.heritage.org/issues/economic-freedomhttp://www.heritage.org/about/staff/e/the-heritage-foundation-economic-freedom-task-forcehttp://www.heritage.org/issues/economic-freedom


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>nvironmental regulations (ills jobs>nvironmental regulations (ills jobsNA 1$ +Pational Association o% Ganu%acturers. QGanu%acturers: E8A Regulations 9ill !everely IarmEconomic (rowth.Q Ganu%acturers E8A Regulations 9ill !everely Iarm Economic (rowth. P.p. ? Pov. ?31?. 9e.14 >uly ?315. http:$$www.nam.org$@ommunications$Articles$?31?$11$Ganu%acturers6E8A6Regulations69ill6!everely6

Iarm6Economic6(rowth.aspCS. he Pational Association o% Ganu%acturers +PAG, is an advocacy grouphead"uartered in 9ashington D.@. #nited !tates with 13 additional oJces across the country.


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Jcean 7oning . hurt economy/m)lementation of ocean 7oning )olicy guts investment inocean develo)mentastings 1$ – representative in the Iouse o% Representatives o% @ongress chairman o% the Iouse Patural Resources @ommittee hePatural Resources @ommittee has urisdiction over most %ederal land use and water policies including national %orests national parks and monumentswilderness areas national scenic areas une 1 ?31? accessed 4$1$15W >9


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Regulations hurt economy – small businessSmall business regulatory burden – hurts economyDanner! $%13 + Dan -!top overregulating usinesses: Lpposing view0 #!Atoday >uly ?5 ?31;http:$$www.usatoday.com$story$opinion$?31;$34$?5$national6

%ederation6o%6independent6usiness6regulations6editorials6deates$?22154$,One of the top concerns we hear from our 350,000 small-business members is how discouraged they are by

the tidal wave of new rules and regulations imposed on them by the federal regulatory machine. Persistent

small-business pessimism and lagging job creation is, without a doubt, related to their sense of regulatory

suffocation. A new McKinsey Global Institute study finds that the U.S. might be losing its economic edge and

falling behind its competitors due, in part, to our regulatory climate. According to McKinsey, U.S. business

executives say that "permitting, regulation and taxes are increasingly impediments to investing in the United

States." Of the more than 3,500 federal regulations rushing through the federal pipeline, 202 are considered

to have a major economic impact and 739 directly target small businesses. These edicts not only arrive in

great numbers, they also hit virtually every aspect of small firms — taxes, health care, labor, environment, safety

and much more.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/americas/us_game_changershttp://www.mckinsey.com/insights/americas/us_game_changershttp://www.mckinsey.com/insights/americas/us_game_changers


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Regulations hurt economy – job loss>;A regulations out.of.control hurting the economy –s)eci8cally (ills jobselnak +!teve elnak %ormer @EL o% Gartin Garietta Gaterials


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>nvironmental regulations (ills )roductivity

>nvironmental regulations hurt )roductivity and costsmanufacturing )lants

(reenstone et al' +Gichael (reenstone 8ro%essor o% Environmental Economics in theDepartment o% Economics at the Gassachusetts ohn A. *ist

he Iomer >. *ivingston 8ro%essor in Economics and the @hairman o% theDepartment o% Economics at the #niversity o% @hicago 8ro%essor o% Economics at#niversity o% @hicago, Z1?

V-he Efects o% Environmental Regulation on the @ompetitiveness o% #.!.Ganu%acturing0 G


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investment decisions encouraging investment in -cleaner0 production technologies.Iowever their re. sults suggest that such investment tends to divert from)roductive investment! reducing )roductivity* 5his is consistent ith thestandard )aradigm*


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;olicies addressing climate change hurt economicgroth .

,limate )olicies limit economic groth – anddis)ro)ortionately harm develo)ing countries groth

Dercon! $%1&

+!te%an 8olicy Research 9orking 8aper7;7 -une ?5 ?315http:$$www.wds.worldank.org$servlet$9D!@ontent!erver$9D!8$


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'in( turn debate – Y hel)s theeconomy


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Jcean )rotection and regulation hel)s theeconomy

Jcean )rotection (ey to sustainable develo)mentWisbec(! et al* $%1& F0artin, =+ecuring blue wealthG the need for a special sustainabledevelopment goal for the ocean and coasts.= Marine Policy ?8 F456?HG 68?-626. +ciencdirectaccessed tm 3-6H

Services )rovided by the ocean are of direct economic relevance for

sectors like &sheries a"uaculture ofshore oil and gas mining shipping

tourism and – potentially in the %uture – deep seaed mining %or mineral

resources. >stimates for the value )rovided by the ocean.based economy

range from 1 to I )ercent of 0D; for develo)ed countries ^2W. ven though

the coastal economy does not necessarily rely on ocean services as

in)uts! a healthy ocean is a )rerequisite for a stable coastal economy

hich )rovides ta6 revenues and indirect economic and social bene8ts

by! for e6am)le! community identity VW.

Jvere6)loitation of the environment as a result of groth inthe develo)ed orld destroys develo)ing countries-economies! no is (ey to transition toards a blue economicfocus

S/DS 1& V#P

and sustainable use of biodiversity has in enabling the establishment of aBlue >conomy! broader sustainable develo)ment and )overty eradication +see &g elow,. 5his is )articularly true in develo)ing countries hereeconomies are more directly related to environmental e6)loitation*E"uivalent &gures to that aove could e developed %or the other issuesunderlining the overall interconnectivity and the need for an integratedand holistic a))roach* 5o this end the ecosystem a))roach must under)inall as)ects of the Blue >conomy incor)orating interrelationshi)s! (noc(.on

politics core generic - ddi 2014

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