polk progress in real estate

Polk Progress in Real EstateFree Enterprise Symposia Series

AGENDA Introduction

Economic Panel Polk Real Estate Panel Polk Industrial Panel

Economic Development Panel Lending Panel Keynote Presentation

THANK

YOU

TO

SPONSORS

AGENDA Introduction



ECONOMIC

PANEL

Introduction Kevin Jones- MidFlorida Credit Union View from the Federal Reserve Dr. Carl Hudson- Atlanta Federal Reserve Polk County Data Dr. Carl Brown- Florida Southern College Questions & Answers

KEVIN JONESD. KEVIN JONES has been President and Chief Executive Officer of MIDFLORIDA Credit Union since 1992. MIDFLORIDA began in 1954 as Polk County Teachers Credit Union with only 10 charter members, but ended the first year with 272 members and about $7,000 on deposit. In 1957, the credit union expanded its charter to serve the employees and volunteers of the Highlands County School Board and in 1963 the professional office of MIDFLORIDA opened. In 2002, MIDFLORIDA expanded its community charter to include Okeechobee, Sumter and Hardee counties. MIDFLORIDA has grown to include 36 branches, 603 employees and more than $1 billion in assets and currently services over 178,000 members in the central Florida area. He began his banking career at American Fletcher National Bank where he served as assistant branch manager, accounting manager and accounting and administrative officer. He then worked at Cummins Employees Federal Credit Union as vice president of finance. Mr. Jones is a member of the board of directors of the Jacksonville Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Appointed: January 2010; Term Expires: December 31, 2015.) He is a member of the board of Polk Education Foundation. He is also a past director of the Lakeland Chamber of Commerce, the Florida Credit Union League Service Group, the Drug Prevention Resource Center, the Downtown Lakeland Partnership, the Lakeland Downtown Development Authority, and the Junior Achievement of Polk County. He received a bachelors degree in accounting from Indiana University, an MBA from Florida Southern College and is a certified public accountant of the State of Indiana.

D R. CARL

HUDSON

Carl has been the Director of Center for Real Estate Analytics (the Center) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta since February 2011. As a joint initiative of the Reserve Bank's Supervision and Regulation, Research, and Community and Economic Development Departments, the Center informs decision making by identifying and analyzing systemic implications real estate has on the economy, financial institutions and consumers. Carl served five years as Director of Policy and Supervisory Studies in the Reserve Bank's Supervision and Regulation Division. In that role, the primary duties included bank and policy research in support of the Division's central bank and examination functions. In addition to comments on legislative, accounting and other policy issues, the team conducted real market analysis and produced macro prudential analysis. Prior to joining Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Carl was an Associate Professor of Finance at Auburn University for 14 years. Carl's research has been published in such leading publications as the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Journal of Accounting and Economics, the Journal of International Money and Finance, and Financial Management. While at Auburn, he taught courses in business finance, financial management of financial institutions, and derivative securities. Carl received earned a Ph.D. in finance from Arizona State University. He received a master's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a bachelor's degree in accounting from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

D R. CARL

BROWN

Carl C. Brown, PhD. is the William F. Chatlos Professor of Business and Economics at Florida Southern College. He holds a master's in economics from the University of South Florida and a Ph.D. in economics from Oklahoma State University with specializations in international trade and finance, public finance, and industrial organization. Brown has published the Polk Progress Economic Report quarterly since 1983. Brown has taught at the graduate level for twenty-seven years. Dr. Brown has served as an expert witness in legal proceedings concerning estimates of economic loss due to death and injury, and as a witness before such bodies as the Florida Public Utilities Commission. He has also served as an economic consultant to such private entities as the Lakeland Mall and other local business enterprises.

ECONOMIC

PANEL


A View from the Fed

Florida Southern College Polk Real Estate & Economic Update Thursday, November 01, 2012 Polk Museum of Art, 800 East Palmetto Street, Lakeland, Fla.

The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

11

AgendaHousing and CRE are often cited as a key to the economys recovery and remain important exposures for banks. Review the issues surrounding real estate recovery and give participants a framework to discuss conditions and emerging trends in their geographies. o Review the case for optimism o Explore how the four As of mortgage credit (Affordability, Access, Availability, and Appeal) are affecting the recovery o Discuss some FRBA survey results

12

A case for optimism Appear to have stabilization in Housing starts, Home sales, Home prices, and Residential investments contribution to GDP. Home price indices may continue to experience sluggish, uneven growth despite high levels of affordability and stability in housing starts and sales.

13

A case for optimism

14

In light of moderating GDP growth and an elevated unemployment rate, another round of Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs), or more commonly QE3, was initiated at the September FOMC meeting.

The program adds $40 billion per month in agency MBS to the Federal Reserves balance sheet. The Committee will continue its operation twist program through the end of the year. The Committee extended its forward guidance on the 0 to percent fed funds rate until mid-2015.

15

Despite optimism, 3 of the 4 As of mortgage finance suggest problems in the transmission of monetary policy Affordability: How expensive are houses? This is a major part of the focus of the case for optimism. Accessibility: To what extent can people who want to buy qualify to borrow? Availability: Several factors may very well serve to hamper/dampen the availability of credit going forward.

Appeal: Has there been a fundamental shift in homeownership preferences?

16

Recent FRBA Survey Results Approximately 6/10 Southeast homebuilders and 4/10 brokers contacted reported that sales increased on a year-over-year basis in August.

Southeast brokers and homebuilders expect that year-over-year home sales growth will remain positive over the next several months. Southeast brokers and home builders reported that buyer traffic remained ahead of the year earlier level in August. More than half of Southeast home builders and brokers indicated that home prices were ahead of the year earlier level in August.

More than two-thirds of Southeast homebuilders and residential brokers indicated that home inventories continued to decline on a year-overyear basis.Source: September 2012 FRBA business contact poll

17

The WrapIn summary There is a strong case for optimism from low levels Issues of Affordability, Access, Availability, and Appeal are affecting the recovery FRBA survey results indicate optimism from builders and brokers, but concerns from lenders.

18

ECONOMIC

PANEL


DR. CARL C. BROWNProfessor of Economics Florida Southern CollegeThe Economy of Polk County, Florida November 1, 2012

US Gross Domestic Product (Price Adjusted)15000

14500

14000

13500

Series1

13000

12500

12000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012

Polk Progress Index225

220

215

210

205 Series1 200

195

190

185


Taxable Sales (Dollars Seasonally Adjusted)1800000

1750000

1700000

1650000

1600000

Series1

1550000

1500000

1450000

1400000 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012

Hotel/Motel Sales (Dollars Seasonally Adjusted)60000

50000

40000

30000

Series1

20000

10000


Residential Electric Accounts (Seasonally Adjusted)104000

103000

102000

101000

100000

Series1

99000

98000

97000


Total Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)270000 265000 260000 255000 250000 245000 240000 235000 230000 225000 220000 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 Series1

Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)16

14

12

10

8

Series1

6

4

2


Industrial Kilowatt Hours (Seasonally Adjusted)180000

175000

170000

165000

160000 Series1 155000

150000

145000

140000


Dollar Value of Building Permits500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 Series1

Number of Single Family Building Permits (Seasonally Adjusted)1200

1000

800

600

Series1

400

200


Home Sales (Seasonally Adjusted)1600

1400

1200

1000

800

Series1

600

400

200



210

205

200

195 Series1 190

185

180

175



220

215

210

205 Series1 200

195

190

185


US Gross Domestic Product (Price Adjusted)15000

14500

14000

13500

Series1

13000

12500


To read the full text of the Polk Progress quarterly report, please visit

flsouthern.edu/polkprogress

Thank you

AGENDA Introduction



GARY

RALSTON

Gary M. Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, SRS, CPM, CRE, SCLS is a recognized subject matter expert on retail and commercial properties. His consulting assignments include handling Florida REO properties for one of the Nations largest special servicers of small commercial loans. He also serves as a principal of a retail build-to-suit development company. From the early 1990s to mid-2004 Gary was the president and a member of the board of directors of Commercial Net Lease Realty, Inc. (NYSE:NNN), the industry leader in single-tenant corporate net-leased real estate. During that time he guided the company's growth from less than $15 million in real estate assets to nearly $1.5 billion. Gary holds the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM), Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR), Specialist in Real Estate Securities (SRS), Certified Property Manager (CPM), Counselor of Real Estate (CRE) and Senior Certified Leasing Specialist (SCLS) designations. He is also a Florida licensed real estate broker, mortgage broker and certified building contractor. Gary is a senior instructor for the CCIM Institute, and past president of the Florida CCIM Chapter. He is a full member of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and a former Vice Chairman of the Small Scale Development Council. Gary is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and an instructor for the ICSC University of Shopping Centers at Wharton, the ICSC Executive Learning series and RECon Academy. Gary holds a Masters in Real Estate and Construction Management from the University of Denver, serves on the Burns Counselor Board of the Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at the University of Denver, and in 2007 was named an adjunct faculty member.

Gary also serves on the Executive Advisory Board of the Center for Retailing Education and Research at the University of Florida. Gary was inducted as a Hoyt Fellow in 2001. He is recognized as the second most accredited real estate professional in the nation.

POLK

REAL

ESTATE

PANEL

Introduction Gary Ralston- Coldwell Banker Commercial Residential Market Overview Dr. Brad OConner- Florida Realtors Commercial Market Overview Gary Ralston- Coldwell Banker Commercial Discussion Panelists William Rayburn- Publix Ron Clark- Broadway Joel Adams- Highland Homes

D R. B R A D O C O N N E RDr. Brad OConnor is the Research Economist at Florida Realtors, the states largest trade organization with over 100,000 members. As part of Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis Department, Dr. OConnor oversees the production of the organizations widelycited monthly residential housing market statistics, as well as the departments numerous other statistical research projects. Dr. OConnor received his BS in economics from the Ohio State University, and earned his MS and PhD from Florida State University, where his academic research chiefly involved the effects of land use regulations on housing markets. Prior to joining Florida Realtors, Dr. OConnor worked as a statistical consultant for the Walt Disney Company. He currently resides in Windermere, Florida with his wife and four-year-old daughter.

POLK

REAL

ESTATE

PANEL


Brad OConnor, PhD [email protected]

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasing

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasingMonthly sales have been trending upward since early 2011

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasingMonthly sales have been trending upward since early 2011 The number of new listings has been falling

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasingMonthly sales have been trending upward since early 2011 The number of new listings has been falling Inventories are down sharply

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasingMonthly sales have been trending upward since early 2011 The number of new listings has been falling Inventories are down sharply The supply of lender-mediated properties has stabilized

Prices have stopped declining, and in many areas are now steadily increasingMonthly sales have been trending upward since early 2011 The number of new listings has been falling Inventories are down sharply The supply of lender-mediated properties has stabilized Multiple offers and market tightness in some areas

Employment is up Renewed population growth Lenders have climbed up the learning curve (Some) household wealth has been restored Prices have fallen to a point where investors are back in the market Have cash Rents are high

Floridas residential real estate market is experiencing a mini-recoveryStatistics for the housing market in the I-4 Corridor mirror those for the state overall Recovery will work its way outward from Orange County and Hillsborough County into the surrounding counties, including Polk County

POLK

REAL

ESTATE

PANEL


Benchmark DemographicsPopulation, 2011 estimate Population, percent change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011Persons under 5 years, percent, 2011 Persons under 18 years, percent, 2011 Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2011 Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 20062010 High school graduates, percent of persons age 25+, 2006-2010 Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2006-2010 Living in same house 1 year & over, 2006-2010 Housing units, 2010 Homeownership rate, 2006-2010 Households, 2006-2010 Persons per household, 2006-2010 Median household income 2006-2010 Building permits, 2011 EMPLOYMENT (July 2012) Labor Force Employment Unemployment % Non-Farmhttp://quickfacts.census.gov www/bls.gov

Lakeland Winter Haven 98,589 34,291 1.2% 1.2% 6.2% 21.0% 20.7% 6.5% 22.3% 22.3%

Polk County 609,492 1.2% 6.3% 23.2% 18.3%

Florida 19,057,542 1.4% 5.6% 21.0% 17.6%

USA 311,591,917 0.9% 6.5% 23.7% 13.3%

13.9% 85.8% 22.8% 77.7% 48,218 57.1% 40,529 2.28 $40,988

15.9% 83.6% 18.7% 78.1% 17,037 58.8% 14,025 2.33 $37,502

18.2% 81.9% 18.0% 81.7% 281,214 72.1% 223,689 2.58 $43,946 1,156 Polk County 275,900 246,900 10.6% 192,400

26.6% 85.3% 25.9% 83.1% 8,989,580 69.7% 7,152,844 2.53 $47,661 42,360 Florida 9,271,200 8,452,900 8.8% 7,325,100

20.1% 85.0% 27.9% 84.2% 131,704,730 66.6% 114,235,996 2.59 $51,914 624,061 USA 155,013,000 142,220,000 8.3% 133,245,000

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Office Recap ( > 10,000 SF)

Less Than

# 4

SF

Greater Than > 100,000 SF > 50,000 SF > 20,000 SF > 10,000 SF

593,377 934,073 1,547,611 1,543,169 4,618,230

100,000 > 50,000 > 20,000 > Total

14 52 114 184

Source: Polk Property Appraiser www.polkpa.org

2008 Coldwell Banker Real Estate Corporation.

All Rights Reserved.

SAUNDERS RALSTON DANTZLER

Office

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vac % 13.9 15.7 19.4 21.3 19.6 19.5

Asking Rent $16.42 $16.50 $16.06 $16.06 $15.99 $16.03

% Change n/a 0.5 -2.7 0.0 -0.4 0.3

www.reis.com 2008 Coldwell Banker Real Estate Corporation. All Rights Reserved. SAUNDERS RALSTON DANTZLER

Office

Office EMP 65,394 64,621 61,821 60,770 58,739 58,682

Demand * 16,348,500 16,155,250 15,455,250 15,192,500 14,684,750 14,670,500

* Demand parameter 250 SF/EMP


Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Retail Recap

Less Than

# 39

SF

Greater Than > 100,000 SF

6,421,508 2,637,3842,902,172 2,578,058 2,897,199 2,260,249 1,072,189 20,768,759

> 100,000 SF> 50,000 SF > 20,000 SF > 10,000 SF > 5,000 SF > 2,500 SF Total

3987 188 419 635 660 2,067

> 50,000 SF> 20,000 SF > 10,000 SF > 5,000 SF > 2,500 SF





Neighborhood Community Retail

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vac % 12.0 11.8 12.9 14.0 14.4

Asking Local Rent $14.71 $14.15 $13.81 $13.79 $13.87

% Change n/a -3.8 -2.4 -0.1 0.2


Age Before 1970 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2009 after 2009 All

Rent $13.00 $13.34 $13.05 $14.53 $14.63 $13.87




Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Industrial Recap ( > 20,000 SF)

Less Than

# 6

SF

Greater Than > 500,000 SF

500,000 >250,000 > 100,000 > 50,000 > Total

29135 266 876 1,312

3,305,318 10,359,133 20,005,702 18,215,377 27,959,291 79,844,821

> 250,000 SF> 100,000 SF > 50,000 SF > 20,000 SF





Polk County SFR Lot Analysis

7/2011 to 6/2012 CO's Auburndale Bartow Davenport 26 15 220 Lots 1,028 134 1,635

Years of Supply 39.5 8.9 7.4

Haines CityLake Wales North Lakeland Poinciana South Lakeland Winter Haven

815 104 85 331 50 854

1,0291,054 1,421 578 1,007 3,103 10,989

128.670.3 13.7 6.8 3.0 62.1 12.9

David Hitchock @ Saunders Real Estate 2008 Coldwell Banker Real Estate Corporation. All Rights Reserved. SAUNDERS RALSTON DANTZLER

POLK

REAL ESTATE

EXPERTS

William Woody Rayburn has been a Publix associate since January of 1993. He began his Publix career as a financial analyst in Publixs Treasury department supporting Publixs Real Estate group with financial and business analysis. In 2001, Woody joined the Publix Real Estate team as Publixs first Asset Manager. In 2003, Woody was promoted to Director of Asset Management which is his current position. As Director of Asset Management, Woody directs a team of over 25 associates as they manage and lease Publixs real estate portfolio which now encompasses over 200 locations. In addition, Woodys team is responsible for acquisitions of Publix-anchored shopping centers and development of all Publix-owned retail locations. Woodys team also handles dispositions of excess property and closed Publix stores. Prior to joining Publix, Woody was a Manager of Audit Services with Deloitte and Touche in Tampa. Woody is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame with a BBA in Accountancy. Ronald Clark is the CEO of Broadway Real Estate. Broadway owns or manages predominately Class A office space in Lakeland and Winter Haven. The portfolio consists of approximately 350,000 sq ft. In addition, Ronald is the CEO of StoreRight Self Storage. StoreRight located, purchases and manages distressed Class A self storage facilities. The portfolio consists of approximately 250,000 sq ft. He is also the chairman of Clark, Campbell & Lancaster, a law firm consisting of 28 employees. Joel Adams, Executive Vice President of Highland Holdings, Inc., has been involved in the homebuilding and development industry for over 20 years. Prior to forming Highland Holdings in 1996, Mr. Adams worked for Sun State Development Corp. for several years where he implemented various construction best practices, operational efficiency procedures, and integrated IT systems. Mr. Adams holds a degree in finance and economics from Florida Southern College and earned his State of Florida certified general contractor license in 1996. Mr. Adams is the current qualifier for Highland Homes. Mr. Adams is also the Vice President of Berkshire Investors Group, Inc., and is responsible for the companys investment activities and portfolio of over 350 commercial and residential lease properties. Mr. Adams is active in local civic affairs and served as President of the Polk County Builders Association in 2005. In addition he has served several terms as supervisor for numerous community development districts as well as three terms on the City of Lakelands Airport board.

About Publix Largest employee-owned supermarket company in the U.S. 155,000 associates Over $8 Billion in Net Worth Over $5 Billion in cash Over 1,060 Stores Operates in five states (NC Coming 2014)

Publixs Real Estate Portfolio Almost 200 stores and shopping centers under control (approx 20% of open stores) Over 9,000,000 retail sq ft Owns all core facilities (office, warehouse, manufacturing and distribution) All properties owned debt-free 2011/2012 Publix will have acquired over $300 million of Publix-anchored shopping centers

Publix in Polk County 22 Retail locations (9 owned) Pays over $3,500,000 annually in real estate taxes Major United Way benefactor Recently re-opened Lake Gibson w/ new larger prototype and a completely remodeled shopping center Expanded GM warehouse

Whats in Store Steady to accelerating store growth Continuing focus on remodels and replacement of older, obsolete formats Started work on a 1,000,000 sq ft refrigerated facility in Orlando Thoughtful, strategic real estate acquisition program Expansion in North Carolina Continuous improvement in operations and offerings to maintain Publixs leadership role in the industry

AGENDA Introduction



POLK

INDUSTRIAL

PANEL

Introduction Greg Ruthven- The Ruthvens Industrial Market Overview Greg Ruthven- The Ruthvens Discussion Panelists Kevin Margeson- ComCar Wesley Beck- Aspyre Properties Scott Thomas- Saddle Creek

GREG RUTHVENGreg Ruthven is President of The Ruthvens, and has over 25 years of experience in commercial and industrial real estate. Greg is a Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM), President of the Florida Chapter in 2006, and is a registered Florida broker. Greg oversees leasing, development and finance. He is past Chairman of the Lakeland Planning and Zoning Board, past President of the Lakeland Rotary Club, past Chairman of United Way Fund and serves several boards in the community.

POLK

INDUSTRIAL

PANEL

Introduction Greg Ruthven- The Ruthvens Industrial Market Overview Greg Ruthven- The Ruthvens Discussion Panelists Kevin Margeson- ComCar Wesley Beck- Aspyre Properties Scott Thomas- Saddle Creek

LAKELAND INDUSTRIAL MARKETNovember 1, 2012

LAKELAND INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE MARKET

Total Space: 26,893,740 square feet Overall Vacant Space: 1,149,605 SF Overall Vacancy Rate: 4.1% Average Asking Rate: $4.43

2Q 2012

VACANCY RATELakeland has the lowest vacancy rate in the US at

4.1% The national average is 8.7% This is based on the 78 markets Cushman & Wakefield tracks

across the US

2Q 2012

2008 NET ABSORPTIONFlorida Market Jacksonville Lakeland Palm Beach County Pinellas County Fort Myers/Naples Orlando Absorption SF 3,566,153 170,278 (390,295) (729,758) (787,100) (1,083,333)

Broward CountyMiami Tampa Florida Total

(1,333,162)(3,808,260) (1,772,598) (6,168,075)

2009 NET ABSORPTIONFlorida Market Lakeland Tampa Absorption SF 50,752 (435,368)

JacksonvillePinellas County Palm Beach County Orlando Broward County Miami Florida Total

(528,742)(1,174,720) (1,614,137) (1,776,007) (3,336,504) (3,997,977) (12,752,703)

2010 NET ABSORPTIONFlorida Market Miami Palm Beach County Broward County Lakeland Tampa Jacksonville Orlando Pinellas County Florida Total Absorption SF 2,700,700 734,821 723,882 515,088 144,510 35,970 (430,092) (327,103) 4,097,776

2011 NET ABSORPTIONFlorida Market MiamiOrlando Tampa Jacksonville Pinellas County Palm Beach County Lakeland Broward Florida Total

Absorption SF 2,292,7041,485,385 1.289,997 1,181,106 558,533 426,597 306,070 (285,343) 7,255,049

2012 YTD NET ABSORPTIONFlorida Market Broward CountyOrlando Miami Palm Beach County Lakeland Pinellas County Tampa Jacksonville Florida Total 2Q 2012: This does not include Publixs 562,000 sf

Absorption SF 779,110633,394 510,664 397,665 361,375 268,057 218,883 (101,596) 3,067,552

2012 YTD VACANCY RATEFlorida Market LakelandPinellas County Tampa Miami Palm Beach County Broward County Jacksonville Orlando Florida Total

Absorption 4.1%6.1% 7.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.6% 11.1% 12.4% 8.7%

2Q 2012: This does not include Publixs 562,000 sf

OVERALL RENTAL VS VACANCY RATES$6.00 $5.00 psf/yr $4.00 $3.00 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% $1.00 $0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 12

$2.00

1.0%0.0%

OVERALL NET RENTAL RATE

OVERALL VACANCY RATE

Lakeland Market

FLORIDA VACANCY RATE COMPARISONMarket Lakeland Pinellas County Tampa Miami Palm Beach County Broward Jacksonville Orlando Florida Total 2Q 2012

Market Inventory 26,893,740 51,350,460 79,096,036 160,875,806 41,730,055 92,960,596 100,721,813 105,641,982 363,704,031

Overall Vacancy Rate 4.1% 6.1% 7.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.6% 11.0% 11.8% 8.7%

FLORIDA CITIESOverall Vacancy Rates14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

FL Avg. 8.7%

Lakelands vacancy rate is 4.1%

Lakeland is 4.6 percentage points below the Florida average

NORTH AMERICA VACANCY RATE TOP 10 RANKINGSMarket Lakeland, FL SWFL (Naples, FL) Overall Vacancy Rate 4.1% 4.2%

Vancouver, BC Calgary, ABGreater Los Angeles Orange County, CA St. Pete/Clearwater Toronto, ON Philadelphia, PA San Francisco Peninsula, CA 2Q 2012

4.2% 4.3%4.6% 5.6% 6.1% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6%

NATIONAL VACANCY RATE COMPARISONMarket Lakeland, FL Knoxville, TN Houston, TX Atlanta, GA Nashville, TN Richmond, VA Raleigh/Durham, NC Savannah, GA San Antonio, TX Austin, TX Memphis, TN Market Inventory 26,824,673 72,397,856 353,750,019 516,011,066 188,536,962 106,584,380 100,783,185 45,640,224 38,261,298 44,484,711 173,600,690 Overall Vacancy Rates 4.1% 6.7% 7.6% 9.8% 10.2% 10.5% 10.9% 12.4% 12.7% 13.1% 14.2%

Charlotte, NC 2Q 2012

202,404,957 14,290,172

16.9% 19.2%

Birmingham, AL

COMPETITIVE MARKETSOverall Vacancy Rates25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%National Avg. 8.7%

FLORIDA LEASE RATE COMPARISONMarket Lakeland Pinellas County Tampa Jacksonville Orlando Miami Broward Palm Beach County Market Inventory 26,893,740 51,350,460 79,096,036 100,721,813 105,641,982 160,875,806 92,960,596 41,730,055 NNN Weighted Avg. Rental Rates $4.43 $6.12 $5.38 $3.80 $5.35 $5.24 $6.57 $6.98

Florida Total 2Q 2012

363,704,031

$5.31

NATIONAL LEASE RATE COMPARISON Market Inventory MarketMemphis, TNNashville, TN Atlanta, GA Savannah, GA Knoxville, TN Birmingham, AL Richmond, VA Lakeland, FL Raleigh/Durham, NC Houston, TX San Antonio, TX

Avg. Rental Rates

173,600,690188,536,962 516,011,066 45,640,224 72,397,856 14,290,172 106,584,380 26,824,673 100,783,185 353,750,019 38,261,298

$2.56$3.66 $3.75 $3.76 $3.81 $4.28 $4.28 $4.43 $4.50 $4.70 $5.06

Charlotte, NCAustin, TX 2Q 2012

202,404,95744,484,711

$6.57$6.96

LEDC 10 YEAR ACTIVITY SNAPSHOT1,800,0001,600,000

1,400,0001,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Square Feet Avg sf absorbed

The LEDC has tracked Development Activity since 1989. Since 2002, an average of 1,056,708 sf has been absorbed annually

POLK

INDUSTRIAL

EXPERTS

Kevin Margeson is President of Commercial Warehousing, Inc., a third party logistics provider focused on temp-control and dry warehousing, transportation, and value-added packaging. Commercial is an affiliate of Comcar Industries, Inc. one of the largest privately held transportation and logistics providers in the U.S.

Wesley Beck is President of BecKryger Capital Partners LLLP, a private equity firm focused on investments in a variety of industries and industrial development. Mr. Beck was formerly a founding partner in Florida Flavors Inc., a specialty manufacturer of flavors and fragrances.

Scott Thomas is the Vice President of Real Estate at Saddle Creek. Saddle Creek is a leading 3rd party logistics provider with over 14 million SF of warehouse space in 28 locations across the nation.

AGENDA Introduction



ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

PANEL

How Are We Going To Grow Introduction Dr. Chuck Duval- Florida Southern College Economic Development Overview Steve Struggs- Lakeland Economic Development Council

Lakeland Economic Initiatives Jim Studiale- City of Lakeland Update on Central Florida Development Council Todd Dantzler- Polk County Commissioner Questions & Answers

CHUCK

DUVAL

Chuck DuVal is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Florida Southern College Barney Barnett School of Business and Free Enterprise. Originally from Virginia, Dr. DuVal earned his undergraduate degree at Christopher Newport University in 1979 and his M.B.A. from the College of William and Mary in 2009. He completed his Ph.D. in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance at Old Dominion University in 2012. Dr. DuVal has taught a range of courses to include Corporate Finance, Introduction to Financial Management, Personal Finance, Investments, Principles of Real Estate and Introduction to Office Productivity. His research interests include Real Estate, behavioral finance and asset pricing. His most recent academic work is being published in Journal of Real Estate Education and Practice. After his undergraduate work, Dr. DuVal spent seven years as a stock broker specializing in tax advantaged investments and mainframe computer sales to financial institutions before starting his own Real Estate business. For over 27 years he has owned Real Estate residential and commercial brokerage firms and other companies involved with syndicating real estate investment, development, construction, property management and related services.

STEVE

STRUGGS

Steve is serving in his 25th year with the Lakeland Economic Development Council. He received his B.S Degree from Troy State University in Troy, Alabama and his Masters Degree in Economic Development at the University of Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Steve is a member of Trinity Presbyterian Church and is married to Tammy and they have three children.

JIM

STUDIALE

Jim grew up in Ft. Lauderdale where his family operates a large restaurant business. He has a bachelors degree in business administration and after working for one year in the tax field in Boston, he earned a masters degree in city planning at Florida state university. After graduate school Jim worked as a planning consultant for numerous central Florida cities and counties. In 1978 he came to work for the city as senior planner. He authored the 1980 Lakeland Comprehensive Plan and subsequently was very involved in efforts involving annexation, downtown redevelopment, and historic preservation. After 5 years Jim left to serve as development manager for a real estate development firm, where he developed numerous shopping center and office projects in central Florida, including the 101 main street and old city hall restoration projects in downtown Lakeland.

In 1986 Jim rejoined the city as the assistant director of the community development department and oversaw the production of Lakeland's 1990 plan. Since then he has provided leadership in a wide range of growth and development issues. In 2000 he became director of the 60 person department. Beyond his management role he is well respected for his continued commitment to Lakeland's neighborhoods and for planning efforts which ensure the long-term health and development of Lakeland.

TODD

DANTZLER

Todd Dantzler, CCIM, is managing partner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Ralston Dantzler Realty. He is a well-known authority on commercial properties and land use in the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro and surrounding areas. Todd specializes in commercial properties, investment properties, and commercial leasing. Also a principle with Choice-Dantzler Properties, Inc., a residential real estate brokerage in Winter Haven, Todd has been active in East Polk County real estate for over 28 years. He is a second generation real estate leader -- his father having served as chairman of the Florida Real Estate Commission (FREC). Todd was recognized as the 2012 Florida Realtor of the Year in August of 2012. In 2000, he was elected president of the Florida Realtors -- the youngest president in the history of Florida Realtors. He is a current member of the board of directors, past treasurer, and past chairman of the Legislative Committee and Affordable Housing Task Force of the Florida Realtors. He is a past president of the East Polk County Association of Realtors. In 2010, Todd was elected to the Polk County Board of County Commissioners. As a sitting County Commissioner, he also serves on the Finance Committee, the Central Florida Regional Planning Council, the Community Relations Advisory Council, the Heartland Vision Committee, the Polk Transit Authority, the Polk Transportation Planning Organization and the Central Florida Metropolitan Planning Organization Alliance. He has also served on the Winter Haven Area Transit Policy Board and the Haines City Economic Development Committee. In addition, Todd is a past member and former secretary of the Winter Haven Hospital Board of Trustees. The Winter Haven Hospital, a major medical center serving East Polk and Highlands counties, is the largest private employer in East Polk County. Todd received a bachelor of science degree in Business Administration with a major in Marketing from the University of Florida and is a member of the Florida Blue Key at UF.

ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

PANEL



LAKELAND UPDATENovember 1, 2012

PUBLIX SUPER MARKETS, 562,000 SF

PUBLIX SUPER MARKETS

ROOMS TO GO, 300,000 SF

OREILLY AUTO PARTS, 388,000 SF

OREILLY AUTO PARTS

GENESIS LOGISTICS, 60,000 SF

SHALE INLAND,151,000 SF

MISSION FOODS, 168,400 SF

MISSION FOODS

COLO 5, 105,000 SF

MATHESON TRI - GAS

MATHESON TRI - GAS

XPEDX, 200,000 SF

STERIPACK, 40,000 SF

STERIPACK, 40,000 SF

SYKES ENTERPRISES, 96,000 SF

SYKES ENTERPRISES

CENTRAL FL DEVELOPMENT 152,000 SF SPEC

ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

PANEL



Lakelands Economic StrengthsNovember 1, 2012

Jim Studiale, AICPCommunity Development Department

Planning Team

Lakelands Central Location to Florida 8.5 Million people live within 100 miles of Lakeland, FL

Tallahassee 270 Miles Tampa 35 Miles

Jacksonville 195 Miles

Orlando 55 Miles

*

No other city in the Southeastern U.S. has this claimnot Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Miami, etc.

LAKELAND Miami 235 Miles

csx

csx

csx

1. New York-Northern NJ-Southwest CT 2. Tokyo 3. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County

10. Osaka-Kobe 11. Mexico City 12. Houston 13. Philadelphia

14. Dallas-Ft. Worth15. Central Florida Super Region 16. Atlanta 17. Buenos Aires 18. Hong Kong 19. Miami-Fort Lauderdale

20. Detroit0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Dollars (in Billions)

Employment Centers - Job GrowthLakeland Square Mall Watson Clinic Lakeland Regional Medical Center

WellDyne

Publix Industrial

Publix Corporate

Interstate Business Park Lockheed Martin

Lakeland City Center Polk State College

Airport Geico Lakeside Village

Growth & Economic Downtown & Central City Redevelopment DevelopmentDiverse Housing & Density Near Other Use Housing/Jobs/Parks) Urban Amenities & Local Groceries Near Housing Its About Offering Choices for Healthy Living in a Greener City

Mid-Town CRA Success

Walkability and Place MakingThe Big Picture Remains: Growing Lakeland As A Healthy & Attractive Community Citizens Choosing Activity through Mobility & Recreation Choices Moving Getting Out of Our Cars and Outside Our Houses

Beyond This To Place Making

A Common Vision To Make Lakeland Great

Economic Expansion Downtown Residential & Economic Growth Into a Regional HUB

Redevelopment success in Mid-Town/Medical District Design, Density, Walkability, Place Making in a Community that is Well Connected

ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

PANEL



POLK ECONOMIC UPDATE CFDC re-organization and focus

Current Headlines LEGOLAND Florida CSX Florida Polytechnic Streamsong more about that later

How Tomorrow Moves

New Rail Terminal Facility Winter Haven

State of the Art Technology Electric Cranes Focused Downward Lighting Improved truck flow to reduce idling time LEED Certified Buildings

CSX Vision Integrated Logistics Center (ILC)

930 Ac ILCMaximum Build-Out Office 500,000 sf Light Industrial 2.2 million sf Warehouse Distribution 5.2 million sf Total 7.9 million sf Phase 1 Projected Development 1st 5 Yrs Office 30,000 sf Light Industrial 50,000 sf Warehouse Distribution 500,000 sf Total 580,000 sf City to Include Site in Foreign Trade Zone

Winter Haven Development Schedule Access Road from SR 60 to Rail Terminal Facility is open to

construction traffic Construction for Intermodal Rail Terminal Facility (318 acres) is underway w/ Completion Targeted for April 2014 Phase 2 Construction of Auto Terminal 2016 2018 Timeframe Rezoning of 930 acres for ILC is complete Held local job fair November 2011 with strong attendance Local firms involved supplying pipe and building construction Groundbreaking ceremony scheduled for November 8, 2012 RFP for Development Concepts of Integrated Logistics Center Q4 2012

Terminal Access Road Looking North from SR 60 (Oct 2012)

Old Bartow Lake Wales Rd

Intermodal Rail Facility SiteLooking NW towards Water Treatment Plant

Trailer Parking Yard Tracks & Cranes

How Tomorrow Moves

2012 LEGOLAND

Numbers are good!

Over 1,000 New Jobs

Water Park- Opened May 2012

Power of LEGO Brand

Visitors from across the nation and around the world!

LEOGLAND Hotel (coming soon)

We are glad your here!

Florida Polytechnic University

Surrounding Infrastructure Support

Polk Parkway- Fourlanes and Pace Road interchange (completed) East-west Road (University Blvd) (completed ) Loop Road (Research Way) (completed ) Extension of surrounding utilities to support the property (DRI) and campus


World class design

Construction underway


Innovative Science & Technology Building

Completion: Spring 2014

ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

PANEL



AGENDA Introduction



LENDING PANELWhere Do We Get the Money to Grow? Introduction & Lending Market Overview Jim Farrell- Florida Southern College

Discussion Panelists Randy Hollen- Bank of Central Florida Dale Dreyer- CenterState Kevin Jones- MidFlorida Credit Union Owen LaFave- TD Bank Ben Pressentin- BB&T Greg Littleton Citizens Bank

JIM

FARRELL

Dr. Farrell is an Assistant Professor of Finance and Economics at Florida Southern College and holds a doctorate in Economics from Florida State University as well as the CFA designation. Prior to joining Florida Southern College he was a senior quantitative analyst with the Florida State Board of Administration as well as a stint in the brokerage industry for Merrill Lynch and TD Waterhouse. His research interests include pension and labor studies as well as industrial organization. Dr. Farrell was recently published in the Research in Business and Economics Journal and the Journal of Business and Finance Research and currently has a paper under review with the Journal of Public Economics.

THE LENDING MARKET OVERVIEWDr. Jim Farrell, CFA Florida Southern College

Bank DepositsDeposit Growth (2005 - 2012), indexed to 2005130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Lakeland-Winterhaven MSA 2011 2012

We have seen deposits grow between 2005 and 2012 both statewide and locally, however there has been a slight pullback locally since 2010.

Reserves with the FedBanking Reserves (2005 - 2012), in billions1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Reserves Excess Reserves

Following the market crash and the change in Fed policy towards deposits, we have a spike in reserves held with the Fed over and above the required amounts.

US Commercial Bank AssetsUS Lending Trends (2005 - 2012)70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Loans and Leases as a Share of Assets Real Estate Loans as a Share of Assets Commercial Loans as a Share of Assets

Cash as a Share of Assets

Commercial Banks reduced lending and increased cash reserves following 2008 This trend affected both real estate and commercial lending

Where do we get the money to grow?

Given the shift the last 3 years in the banking industry as a whole, with reductions in lending as a share of assets: Have

the lending standards changed? How does the local market compare the national market? What should businesses and individuals expect going forward?

LENDING PANELWhere Do We Get the Money to Grow? Introduction & Lending Market Overview Jim Farrell- Florida Southern College

Discussion Panelists Randy Hollen- Bank of Central Florida Dale Dreyer- CenterState Kevin Jones- MidFlorida Credit Union Owen LaFave- TD Bank Ben Pressentin- BB&T Greg Littleton- Citizens

L EN D I N G P A N E L I S T SRandy Hollen Executive Vice President of the Bank of Central. Mr. Hollen has worked with SunTrust Bank and two community banks in commercial lending roles, including all forms of commercial transactions such as real estate, equipment and tax exempt transactions.. He also was president of The Lakeland Rotary Club from 2000 to 2001 and was board president of the American Cancer Society in 2006. He is currently chairman of Leadership Lakeland Class XVIII. Dale Dreyer is the Senior Vice President and Central Polk Community for CenterState Bank. Previously he worked for SunTrust Bank and had responsibility for the Polk banks largest loan portfolio. He is a member of Lakeland Regional Medical Center Foundation Board of Trustees and Polk Theatre Board of Trustees. He attended Auburn University. Kevin Jones has been President and Chief Executive Officer of MIDFLORIDA Credit Union since 1992. He has previously been introduced. Owen LaFave is the Vice President of Regional Commercial Real Estate Banking responsible for west central Florida at TD Bank, Americas Most Convenient Bank. Mr. LaFave handles banking for investors and developers with non-owner occupied investment properties including; apartments, retail, industrial, and office amongst other property types. Mr. LaFave is affiliated with National Association of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP), Real Estate Investment Council (REIC), and the Risk Management Association (RMA). Ben Pressentin is the Senior Vice President of BB&T as the Area Executive overseeing both Polk and Osceola Counties. His career began with Union Planters Bank in Memphis Tennessee and then transitioned to BB&T as a commercial lender in South Florida focusing on the middle market Commercial and Industrial segment. He has been serving the Florida Market for the past 10 years. Greg Littleton is president and chief executive officer of Citizens Bank & Trust.. He has been at Citizens Bank & Trust since 1997 and has been president since 2001. He currently serves as Chairman for CFDC, an Executive Committee Member and immediate past Chair for Polk Vision, District Board of Trustees and past Chair for Polk State College, Board of Director and Treasurer for Polk Museum of Art, Board of Director & Treasurer for Winter Haven Chamber, and a Board member of United Way of Central Florida.

AGENDA Introduction



TOM

SUNNARBORG

Tom Sunnarborg, is Vice President - Land Development and Management at The Mosaic Company in Lithia, Florida where he is responsible for leading the strategic planning of Mosaics 253,000acre plus landholdings, management of Mosaics land assets, and development of the Streamsong Resort project. Tom is a professional real estate developer with 25 years of experience in both corporate and entrepreneurial environments across a wide variety of resort, hospitality, recreation, commercial and community developments. Prior to Mosaic, Tom was Vice President of Development for Starwood Hotels & Resorts in Orlando where he was responsible for leading the entitlements process for new owned development projects worldwide. Prior to Starwood, Tom was Vice President of Development for Intrawest Placemaking in Orlando where he was responsible for leading the acquisition and development of Intrawests warm-weather resort portfolio in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean. Prior to Intrawest, Tom was Director of Development at Celebration Associates in Pinehurst, NC where he was responsible for community and commercial development projects in NC, SC and VA. Prior to Celebration Associates, Tom was Project Director at Walt Disney Imagineering in Orlando. Tom received a BBA from the University of Minnesota-Duluth in 1982 and an MBA from the University of Florida in 1988. Tom is the current Chairman of the Celebration Community Development District and the 2008 winner of the Celebration Foundations Todd Mansfield Leadership Award. Tom is a member of the University of Florida Bergstrom Center Real Estate Advisory Board and a member of the Urban Land Institute.

www.streamsongresort.com

171

The Mosaic Company Mosaic is the worlds largest combined producer of phosphate and potash crop nutrients Formed in 2004 as a new public company through the merger of Cargill Crop Nutrition and IMC Global, Inc. Our mission is to help the world grow the food it needs- The worlds population continues to grow (from 7 billion today to 9 billion in 2050) - The worlds farmland is expected to increase by only 1% over the same period - Crop nutrients increase crop yields per available acre

8,000 employees in 10 countries worldwide (3,300 in FL) 7th largest landowner in Florida- 250,000 acres under direct ownership - 80,000 acres of additional mining rights

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Mosaic Company Landholdings

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Brewster Special Area Plan

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Streamsong Rationale Showcase the environmental beauty and commercial viability of formerly mined phosphate land Offer an authentic Florida experience, with amenities meeting planners and affluent travelers expect in a first-class resort Provide a uniquely-special alternative to coastal high-rise and theme park resorts Underscore Mosaics long-term commitment to our neighboring central Florida communities

Boost the regional rural economyEmploy hundreds during construction 200+ permanent full time jobs Increase local tax base and tourist revenue Multiplier effect on local businesses Encourage smart growth strategies

A model for economic and environmental sustainability

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Streamsong Location

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Streamsong Resort Program Summary Golf:- Streamsong Red - Streamsong Blue - Golf Clubhouse (Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw) (Tom Doak)

Guest Rooms: 228 rooms- 216 luxury guest rooms in main lodge - 12 special guest rooms in golf clubhouse

Conference: 18,000 sf- 13,500 sf in main lodge (incl 7,600 sf ballroom) - 4,500 sf in golf clubhouse

Other AmenitiesFull-service spa 3 Restaurants 2 Bars Outdoor pool Shooting sports Fishing program

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Streamsong Resort Core

Lodge

Streamsong Drive

Walker Road

Golf Maintenance

Clubhouse

25-Apr-2012

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Streamsong Infrastructure Progress23-Oct-2012 (PCL Construction Services)

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Streamsong Blue #128-Oct-2012 (Larry Lambrecht)

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Streamsong Red #129-Oct-2012 (Larry Lambrecht)

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Streamsong Golf Clubhouse23-Oct-2012 (PCL Construction Services)

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Streamsong Golf Clubhouse25-Oct-2012 (Al Hurley)

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Streamsong Golf Clubhouse24-Oct-2012 (Al Hurley)

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Streamsong Golf ClubhouseRestaurant Fifty-Nine

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Streamsong Lodge Site23-Oct-2012 (PCL Construction Services)

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Streamsong Lodge Progress25-Oct-2012 (Al Hurley)

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Streamsong Lodge

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Streamsong LodgeLobby

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Streamsong LodgeSottoTerra

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Streamsong LodgeThe High Ground

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Streamsong LodgeMain Ballroom

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Streamsong LodgeFragmentary Blue

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Streamsong LodgeMock-Up Room

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Streamsong Core Project Team Owner / Developer: Streamsong Red Architects: Streamsong Blue Architects: Architect: Civil Engineer: General Contractor: Resort Operator: Golf Operator: The Mosaic Company Stillwater Preserve Development, LLC Coore & Crenshaw (Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw) Renaissance Golf Design (Tom Doak) Alfonso Architects Kimley-Horn Associates PCL Construction Services Interstate Hotels and Resorts KemperSports

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Streamsong Resort Milestones December 2012 November 2013 Golf and Clubhouse projected opening Lodge projected opening

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www.streamsongresort.com

Tom Sunnarborg The Mosaic Company Vice President - Land Development and Management 13830 Circa Crossing Drive; Lithia, FL 33547 813-500-6516 [email protected] www.mosaicco.com205

LUNCH & TOUR Lunch Boxes Available Tour Smithsonian Exhibit

Polk Progress in Real EstateFree Enterprise Symposia Series

polk progress in real estate

Documents

carl brown carl

carl hudson carl

polk progress economic

economic consultant

business finance

public finance

university of south

polk museum of art