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Chapter 1: Outline Need for Psychological Science
Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence show that we cannot rely onintuition and common sense. Critical thinking must also be employed in order to perceive facts from nonsense.Hind sight Bias
The thought that once a person find out the outcome, that the person knew theoutcome all along and could have predicted it.
Proves that we need psychological research
Common sense describes what has happened more easily than predict what willhappenOverconfidence
Thinking is limited
Even when you are 100% sure about something, self prediction may change up to15% of the time.
When prediction becomes wrong, individuals attempt the I was close excuse
Often leads to the overestimation of our potential.
Skepticism and humility must be added to come back to realityScientific Attitude
Sometimes refutes skeptics
Being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible
Skeptical testing could separate the real facts
Requires skepticism and humility
Need to reject our own ideas
Copernicus and Newton, are examples of people who used the scientific attitude
Critical Thinking examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluatesevidence and assesss conclusion without blindly accepting arguments andconclusions.
Scientific Method
Scientific Theory explains through principles that organizes and predicts behaviors or events.
By organizing isolated facts, theory simplifies things.
Connection of observed dots, we may discover a pattern
Hypothesis is testable prediction, often started by a theory
Research allows one to test or reject the theory
Operational Definition is a statement of the procedures used to define researchvariables.