4.3 Population Data RepresentationPopulation Change Over Time: The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Changes in birth rate and death rate over time General description of the stages of population change as they progress through time from a largely rural, agricultural and illiterate society to an urban, industrial and literate one. Move from high BR and DR to low BR and DR

Stage 1Very broad base and very small and narrow top High Birth Rates Lack of information on birth control Ignorance/lack of education on family planning Influence of customs, traditions or religious beliefs High Infant Mortality Farm hands needed Children to look after parents when in old age High Death Rates: Lack of proper healthcare, medical supplies and medical services Famine and diseases (eg. thyphoid and cholera) Poor, unreliable and infected water supplies (causing ^) Ignorance or lack of education Natural Disasters Wars and Conflict

Stage 2: Early ExpandingEg. Peru, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Egypt

Shape: Pyramidal Shape. Broad base Large Young Population/ High Birth Rates Narrow, Higher Top Small Elderly population, High Death RateProportion: Large proportion of young, high young dependency ratio. Balanced Sex RatioMainly agricultural countries with a slow rate of industralisation

TrendsReasons

Rapid Population Growth High Birth Rate

Birth Control?: No practice of family planning or birth control (in the past not available yet)

Status of Women: Low, place is at home, little education, little career opportunitiesThus, child-bearing years are long as women marry early and child-bearing is priority.

Children are required as farm hands in fields

Teachings of Christianity: Discourage abortions and contraception, Children seen as asset (labour)Society promotes big families: Increase in population = Increase in supply + variety of labour provided

Death rates falling rapidly Improvements in social conditions (medical, hygiene, sanitation, nutrition)

With industralisation, Better sanitation: Clean water supplies and sewerage facilities, Improvements in personal hygiene

Improvements in medical care to prolong life:Availability of improved vaccines and drugs,more hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions

Infant/ Child Mortality Decreases

Food production increases in quantity and quality

Improved transport: facilitate movement of medical staff + medicine and food to where they are needed

Crude Death Rate fall before Birth Rate Higher Life Expectancy as Economic Development Industrial revolution in 19th century UK Rural-urban migration Sanitation improvement (particularly in terms of clean water supply and efficient sewerage systems) Better nutrition Medical Advancements

Why does crude birth rate take longer to adjust? Tradition/Culture and Religion: Social norms governing fertility take time to change

High economic value for children/old age security

Case Study: Afghanistan

2000-2005 Growth rate 3.88% per annum

Birth rates high, 43% under 15

Life Expectancy low, 3% 65 or over

Infant mortality rates highest in the world: 16%

TFR: 6.69

Urban population growth rates are even higher than the national average, 6.9%, the result of high natural increase plus in-migration

Status of Women very lowWhen the Taliban took over in 1996, educational and career opportunities for girls and women ended. Girls schools were closed and professional women were no longer allowed to work

In 2000, 88.9% of the female population aged 14 had no schooling at all

Low female education, Few job opportunities, Girls stay at home and cannot work outside

Women had no access to medical care, as male doctors were not allowed to treat them.

Stage 3: Late ExpandingEg. China, Cuba

Population Pyramid: Columnar Shaped. Narrower base compared to earlier stages, but much broader and higher top. Large elderly population, small young populationIndustralising countries.

TrendsReasons

Birth Rate falls rapidly

Birth Control?: Family planning widely practiced.Birth control measures abortion, sterilization, contraceptionGovernment gives incentives to keep the birth rate low.

Status of Women: More educated and liberated, role not only for bearing children.Increasing numbers of women unwilling to give up careers to start family early child-bearing years shorter.

Increased mechanization and industralisation reduces dependency on children as sources of labour

Improvement in medical care and hygiene greatly reduce death of children through diseases, no need to produce so many children to ensure some will survive to adulthood.

Change in mindset: desire for material things and higher standards of living, easier to achieve and maintain when family is small. Cost of living also goes up

Case Study: Bangladesh (early stage 3)

Low Death Rate of 8.3

Relatively high Birth Rate of 28.9, presently dropping

TFR: 3.2

Reduction in growth rate 2 youngest cohorts, 0-4 and 5-9, are narrower than those above.

One of the most densely populated countries in the world, vast majority of its inhabitants being rural dwellers. Limited land from which to feed itself, and even that is reducing as river flooding and raising sea levels wash away the edges of the chars (offshore islands), displacing thousands of people to places where they cannot find land to feed themselves city slums of Dhaka

Case Study: Brazil (Late stage 3)

Younger age groups shrinking, growth rate is slowing down.

Only 27.8% is younger than 15 years

Finished family size is 2.3

This appears to show that the influence of religion fades as economic development takes place. Brazil is a Roman Catholic country, which traditionally encourages a higher birth rate

Elderly are much more significant group than in Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

Highly urbanized. By 2015, 88.2% of Brazilians will be town/city dwellers. This reflects the growing economic opportunities found in urban areas as the country develops.

Stage 4: Low FluctuatingEg. America

Columnar Shaped or Beehive Shaped

TrendsReasons

Low Birth Rates Birth Control?: Effective government family planning programmesInexpensive and widely available methods of contraception

Well-educated society, more working women

Status of Women: More educated and liberated, role not only for bearing children.Increasing numbers of women unwilling to give up careers to start family early, later marriages child-bearing years shorter.

Low infant mortality rate children expected to live longer

Change in mindset: desire for material things and higher standards of living, easier to achieve and maintain when family is small. Cost of living also goes up

Urban parents have smaller families due to lack of space

Low Death Rates Advanced medical and health services lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy.

Improved diet/nutrition

Modern and widely available basic services such as water, electricity and sanitation

Case Study: USA

Growth is quite high, due partly to natural increase, but mainly because of immigration 600,000 new citizens annually.

Immigrants tend to have higher birth rate than the DC in which they settle. (Therefore highly unlikely that the USA will enter Stage 5 demographically)

Growth rate 0.9-1.0%

20.8% below 15 years, declining very gradually.

12.3% are 65 years or older

Important trend once a country enters stage 4:85+ age group particularly large, 8 million people, 2.7% of the total nation by 2025.

Population pyramid shows quite straight sides Long Life Expectancy

TFR: 2.0Caucasian and Black birth rates have fallen slightly, Hispanic families remain larger. Many of todays immigrants are illegal Mexicans from just over the border. Catholic and maintain the tradition of having larger families. Migrated from a Stage 3 LDC

80.8% are urban

Stage 5: Eg. Eastern Europe, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Greece and Austria

Shape: Beehive Shaped. Narrow base: Low Birth Rates, slow population growth Proportion: Large proportion of working population/economically active group, 15-59 It is indicative of considerable economic development, affluence and a high standard of living. Most DCs.

Population pyramid: Narrowest base and a much larger middle and top and higher top. Natural decrease caused by very low birth rates and slightly raised death rates

Emphasis on lifestyle Women achieving high-powered positions at work Ageing population

TFR 1.3

Birth Rate 8.7, Death Rate 10.6

Despite Germany having a significant Turkish minority, with a tradition of larger families, this group has now been settled in Germany so long that their demographic behaviour has harmonized with that of the native population

(Hispanics in USA vs Turkish in Germany, and Brazilians)

Population under 15 is 14.4% 65+: 18.8% High Life Expectancy, 100+ age cohort will get more significant.

Limitations of the DTM

1. Does not take into account MIGRATION a major component in population change

2. External Factors: Intervention from other nations affecting population structures and character of economic development a. eg. Introduction of contraception (birth control pills, tubal ligation, vasectomy etc.) at earlier stages due to technology and availability in the modern world i. Imported technology, therefore faster medical advancementii. Modern contraception widely available in LDCs at Stage 3, but not DCs at Stage 3

b. Lower mortality rate because of NGOs promoting/providing healthcare, not indicative of internal progress)c. Thus, Stage 2 is shorter in LDC than DC (faster, steeper decline in death rates)3. Recent technological advances (from DCs) influenced mortality rates and to some extent, fertility rates

Although most countries followed the classical or UK model of demographic transition, some countries do not: France: Birth Rate fell at the same time as Death rate, no intermediate period of high natural increase Japan and Mexico: Birth Rate increased in stage 2 due to improved health of women in the reproductive age group.

Various differences in the way LDCs have undergone population change compared to DCs:

1. Birth rate in stages 1 and 2 were generally higher. Least developing countries such as Mali, Zambia and Niger have Birth Rate of 45/1000 or higher

2. Death Rate fell much more sharply due to rapid introduction of Western medicine. However, Aids has caused the death rate to rise significantly in Sub-Saharan countries such as Kenya, and Botswana.

3. Large population base of LDCs such as China and India, and thus high growth in stage 2 and early part of stage 3 would be much greater

4. Steeper fall in fertility for countries in stage 3 due to the relatively widespread availability and reliability of modern contraception and government policies.

For example, Chinas population decreased as a result of a combination of government policies and enforcement and also modern contraception: (forced) sterilization, other non-permanent contraceptives. Governmental intervention complemented a natural decrease in birth rates as the result of economic growth/modernization.

UK+northern europe stage 3 decline as a result of natural contraception (in 1800s, no modern contraception). No governmental policies involved.

Population Pyramid

Graphic representation of the age and sex structure of a countrys populationShow the structure of the population of a whole country or of an individual settlement at a point in time.Shapes representing different stages of economic development of the country. (See above)

Annotating a Population Pyramid

1. Wide base suggests high Birth Rate2. A narrow base Birth Rate has fallen3. Straight or near vertical sides Death Rate low4. Sides that narrow inwards from the bottom High Death Rate5. Largo number of males around 20-30 year group High rates of migration6. A small group of young people indicates high rates of outmigration

Steps in reading a population pyramid

1. Comment on the general shape of the pyramid

2. Divide the pyramid into 3 age groups and analyse the population structure accordinglya. The Young: 0-14b. The Adults (Working Age): 15-59c. Aged: 65+

3. Comment on the dependency ratio and possible consequences

4. Comment on the sex ratio

Accurate interpretation of population pyramid Examine social, economic, population policies, history etc.High Dependency RatioPossible Consequences of a youthful population (High Birth Rate)

PositiveNegative

Provides a large and cheap future workforcePuts strain on education and health services

Provides a growing market for manufactured productsPuts strain on food supplies

Puts strain on available accommodation

Lack of available jobs in the future

Possible Consequences of an ageing population (Low Death Rate): Issues of an ageing population

The Third Age:related to the concept of disability-free life expectancy. It refers to a youth-like carefree period where the old are still healthy enough to engage in all of the normal activities of daily life but are able to be free of regular economic activity.

The Fourth Age:will be increasingly consumed by coping with the health effects of old age- with increasing susceptibility to incidences of chronic disease, associated disabilities and death.

Positive Consequences Healthy and active retires able to contribute towards community activities. Life skills and experience of older people can be used to help meet the needs of other age groups. eg. provide care to grandchildren Healthier old population could actively contribute to the economy for longer, Experienced aged workers able to provide mentorship for sustained economic productivity Wealthy retirees with more leisure time contribute to the service economy through demand of various services (education pursuits: life-long learning/ travel) Open up new commercial and retail opportunities for businesses. Healthcare Innovations: Medical advances will be made as the need and demand to reduce, prevent and cure the ailments associated with ageing increases. Benefits society make all people healthier, provide jobs in these areas, and reduce the costs of long-term care for the elderly.

Negative Consequences Challenge for countries with high dependency ratio to maintain viable communities despite population loss. Number of workers decrease, burden is spread among fewer people raise tax ): The need to engage the elderly population productively The need for social and health services will increase greatly; expansion in the demand for products and services for the elderly, resort to spending less on other services eg. childcare. Increase in the relative and absolute size of old-age groups will result in greater burden for the working-age (economically active) population; especially true for sandwich generation who have to support both children and aged parents Potentially unprogressive economy falls behind other economies in economic competitiveness, technical efficiency and economic welfare less attractive to investors due to perception of aged society. Shortage of young people for workforce and defense. European working population predicted to decrease by 16% by 2050

Population Pyramid and DTM

DTM shows only the natural increase or decrease resulting from the balance between deaths and births

Population Pyramid shows the effects of migration, the age and sex of the migrants and the effects of war and major epidemics

The DTM charts the change in a countrys population over time through 4 separate stages

It attempts to correlate a countrys current socio-economic DEVELOPMENT to its demographic stage.

Population pyramids depict the sex and age structure of any population at a particular point in time

Geographers analyse this snapshot and make deductions about the countrys past and present DEVELOPMENT.