population growth and economic development in india
TRANSCRIPT
POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA
Prepared By Sharatkumar Handa
UAS Dharwad
Seminar on
Flow of presentation
۩ Introduction
۩ World population scenario
۩ Size & growth of population in India
۩ Causes of rapid population growth
۩ Population growth and economic development
۩ Remedies for population explosion
۩ Population policy in India
۩ Conclusion
Introduction Overpopulation is a growing problem
throughout the world.
World’s population has reached 7 billion.
There will, of course, be significant increases in the demand for food, water, and energy in developing countries.
Rapid population growth impedes development.
India and many third world countries are now passing through the phase of population explosion.
It is being argued that this situation has arisen because development in these countries has failed to maintain pace with population growth.
Rapid growth of population causes poverty and proves to be a barrier to development.
Contd..
Concepts & Definitions Population:The population of an area is the total number of all individuals alive in a
particular point in time. Thomas Frejka, (1973)
Population explosion: The Theory of Demographic Transition, asserts that the population explosion
implying a sudden spurt in the rate of population growth is a transitory phenomena that occurs in the second stage of demographic transition due to rapid fall in mortality rate without a corresponding fall in the birth rate.
Birth Rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a population each year. Mortality rate is the total number of deaths per 1000 individuals per year.
Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime.
The Theory of Demographic Transition
Acc. to The Theory of Demographic Transition, every country passes through 3 stages of demographic transition.
Stages of demographic transition:
1st stage: Both birth rate and death rates are high. Hence the population remains more or less stable.
2nd stage: Rapid growth of population because, despite substantial reduction in the mortality rate there is no corresponding decline in the birth rate.
3rd stage: The birth rate declines significantly and thus the rate of population growth remains low.
Malthusian views
Population tends to increase at a geometric rate
Food can only increase arithmetically
Population expands to eat up any surplus
Choose moral checks or positive checks
World population
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2011
World Population Growth
First Billion: 1804
Second Billion: 1927 (123 yrs)
Third Billion: 1960 (33 yrs)
Fourth Billion: 1974 (14 yrs)
Fifth Billion: 1987 (13 yrs)
Sixth Billion: 1999 (11 yrs)
Seventh Billion: 2011 (12 yrs)
Sources:World population milestones (USCB)
World Population Growth Rate (Decadal growth- 2001 to 2011)
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011
S.No. Country Population (In millions) Decadal change (in %)
1 China 1,341.0 5.43
2 India 1,210.2 17.64
3 U.S.A 308.7 7.26
4 Indonesia 237.6 15.05
5 Brazil 190.7 9.39
6 Pakistan 184.8 24.78
7 Bangladesh 164.4 16.76
8 Nigeria 158.3 26.84
9 Russian Fed. 140.4 -4.29
10 Japan 128.1 1.1
Other Countries 2844.7 15.43
World 6908.7 12.93
Population growth rate of selected countries
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011
Country wise share in world population
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011
Population growth in India
• India is the 2nd most populous country in the world, with over 1.21 billion people
(2011 census)
• India already containing 17.5% of the world's population and projected to be the
world's most populous country by 2025, surpassing China.
• Population growth rate is 1.5%, ranking 90th in the world. (Qatar ranks 1st with a rate 4.93%)
• India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65%
below the age of 35.
• It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years,
compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan.
Contd..
Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in the country with almost 200 million people, which is more than the population of Brazil.
The combined population of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra (2nd most populous State), at 312 million, is substantially greater than the population of USA.
Population & its growth in India: 1901-2011
Census year
population Decadal growth Avg. annual exp. growth
rate (%)
Progressive growth rate
over 1901 (%)absolute percent
1901 23,83,96,327 - - -1911 25,20,93,390 1,36,97,063 5.75 0.56 5.751921 25,13,21,213 -7,72,177 (0.31) -0.03 5.421931 27,89,77,238 2,76,56,025 11.00 1.04 17.021941 31,86,60,580 3,96,83342 14.22 1.33 33.671951 36,10,88,090 4,24,27,510 13.31 1.25 51.471961 43,92,34,771 7,81,46,681 21.64 1.96 84.251971 54,81,59,652 10,89,24,881 24.80 2.20 129.94
1981 68,33,29,097 13,51,69,445 24.66 2.22 186.64
1991 84,64,21,039 16,30,91,942 23.87 2.16 255.05
2001 1,02,87,37,436 18,23,16,397 21.54 1.97 331.52
2011 1,21,01,93,422 18,14,55,986 17.64 1.64 407.64Sources: Population Reference Bureau, Transition in world population, http:// www.prb.org/Publications/Population Bulletins/2004/ sinWorldPopulationPDF249KB. aspx, pp 4
Percentage decadal population growth rate in India: 1951-1961 to 2001-2011
1951-91 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-20110
5
10
15
20
25
30
21.6424.8 24.66
23.8721.54
17.64
Rural & urban population in India
Source: Census, GOI
Population share of state & UT, India 2011
Sources: Census, GOI,2011
Population of Indian States Compared to a Few Countries in the World (in million)
State Population
Vs
Country Population
Uttar Pradesh 200 Brazil 194
Maharashtra 112 Japan 128
Bihar 104 Mexico 107West Bengal 91 Philippines 92
Andhra Pradesh 85 Germany 82
Madhya Pradesh
73 Turkey 75
Tamil Nadu 72 Iran 73Rajasthan 69 Thailand 68Karnataka 61 UK 62
Gujarat 60 Italy 60
Sources: Census GOI/World Bank
Density of Population
‘Density of Population’ is defined as the number of persons per square kilometer.
With a population density of 382/km2, India ranks 31st among the most densely populated countries in the world. (Singapore ranks 1st -7301/km2)
Even though India accounts for only 2.4% of surface area of the earth, it contributes 17.5% to the world population, which is extremely large. Where as USA, accounting for 7.2% of the earth’s surface area, contributes only 4.5% to the world population.
Top Ten Most Densely Populated States of India
S.No. States Population Density (per square km)
1 Bihar 1,1022 West Bengal 1,0293 Kerala 8594 Uttar Pradesh 6895 Haryana 5736 Tamil Nadu 5557 Punjab 5508 Jharkhand 4429 Assam 397
10 Goa 394
Arunachal Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands have the lowest population densities among the Indian states and union territories respectively.
Source: Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov
Population Density of India in a chronological order
Year Density of population per sq km 1901 77 1911 82 1921 81 1931 90 1941 103 1951 117 1961 142 1971 177 1981 216 1991 274 2001 324 2011 382
Source: Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov
Sex wise composition of population in India
Sex ratio: No. of females per thousand males.
All time lowest sex ratio was 927 in 1991.
The sex ratio of India has shown improvement during last two decades.
Sex ratio, as per the recent census is 940 which is largely comparable to the best performance (941 in 1961) in last fifty years.
Sources: Census of India, GOI,1901 to 2011.
Census in India
• A population Census is the process of collecting, compiling, analyzing and disseminating demographic, social, cultural and economic data relating to all persons in the country, at a particular time in ten years interval.
• It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular population.
• The 1871 India Census was the first comprehensive census of India, then a component of the British Empire.
Causes of rapid population Growth
1. High birth rate
2. Relatively lower death rate and
3. MigrationNet Migration is the difference between emigration & immigration Emigration is when a person moves out of the country.Immigration is when a person moves into a country.
Interaction
In India the population has rapidly increased mainly due to decline in the death rate, while the birth rate remained high.
Population growth = (Birth rate+ Immigration) - (Mortality +
Emigration)
Reasons for High Birth Rate
1. Predominance of agricultureIn agrarian society children never been
considered as economic burden.
2. Slow urbanization process & predominance of villages
3. PovertyPeople are not poor because they have large
families. Quite the contrary, they have large families because they are poor. -(Mahmood Mandani)
A. Economic factors B. Social factors
A. Economic factors
1. Near universality of marriagePresently in India by the age of 50, only 5 out of
1000 Indian women remain unmarried.
2. Lower age at the time of marriage
3. Religious & social superstitions Belief that it is a must to have a son, because
according to religion certain rites can be performed only by him & none else.
4. Joint family systemThe joint family system induces the young couple
to have children, though they may not be in a position to support them.
B. Social factors
5. Lack of education
6. Unawareness about family planning services
7. Social and religious beliefs - especially in relation to contraception and abortion
8. Infant Mortality Rate
Contd..
Reasons for decline in the mortality rate
a. Elimination of famines
b. Control of epidemics & decline in the incidence of Malaria & Tuberculosis
Cholera and small fox were the two major causes of epidemics before independence. Now cholera is completely eradicated and small fox is very much under control.
c. Supply of pure drinking water
d. Sanitation & hygiene
Contd..
e. Nutrition levels
f. Living standard
g. Education, health care & expanded medical facilities
h. Social factors such as conflicts and levels of violent crimes
Birth rate & Death rate in India
Year Birth rate(births/1,000 population)
Death rate (deaths/1,000 population)
1941-51 39.9 27.4
1951-61 41.7 22.8
1961-71 41.1 19
1971-81 37.2 15
1981-91 29.5 9.8
1991-01 25.8 8.5
2001-11 22.5 7.7
Source: Calculated from the Census of India data and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India
Birth rate & Death rate in India
1941-51 1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-110
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Birth rate (births/1,000 population) Death rate (deaths/1,000 population)
years
rate
of g
row
th
Why there are so many children in poor countries ??
Because children are “investment goods” rather than “consumption goods”
The “expected return of the investment” is given by child labour and financial support for parents in old age
International Migration from low to middle & high
income countries Employment based migration
Intra-national Rural to Urban Semi-Urban to Urban
Why migrate? Lure of big city Job opportunities (pull factor) Lack of rural opportunities (push factor)
Migration: geographical distribution
International migration, 2010 (Top 10)
Highest percentage of international migrants
Largest number of international migrants, (millions)
Qatar 87% USA 42.8
UAE 70% Russia 12.3
Kuwait 69% Germany 10.8
Jordan 465 Saudi Arabia 7.3
Palestine 44% Canada 7.2
Singapore 41% France 6.7
Israel 40% UK 6.5
Hong Kong 39% Spain 6.4
Saudi Arabia 38% India 5.4
Oman 38% Ukraine 5.3
Source: Population Growth & Its impacts, PAD 6838/ 7865 Lecture 3
Population pyramid of developing & developed countries
Youth Bulge Population pyramid depicts the current distribution of people across age groups.
A large number of youth constitute India’s population; about 36 percent of the population is under age 15.
This young age structure creates a powerful momentum for future population growth.
Many females will soon enter their reproductive years and have children within the next decade. Even if fertility declines rapidly, it will take 50 years for the population to stabilize.
India’s Youth Bulge
Projections arrived using Spectrum with inputs from Census 2001, and NFHS
Population growth & Economic development in india
India’s population is large and growing.
The rapidly growing population affect India’s impressive economic growth and commitment to improving the living standards of its citizens.
The economic growth primarily due to a huge increase in the size of the middle class consumer population, a large workforce comprising skilled workers, good education standards and considerable foreign investments.
Indian economy Today, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
The economy of India is the 10th largest in the world by nominal GDP and the 3rd largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) With 4,793 billion USD.
According to the IMF, India is the 19th-largest exporter and 10th-largest importer in the world.
The economy is growing around 5.0% growth rate.
India’s low-cost, skilled labour force has been an important driver in its economic growth.
Growth of population, GDP and food grain production, India: 1950-51 to 2010-11.
YEAR POPULATION (millions)
GDP at facto cost(at constant price in Rs. Crore)
Output of foodgrains(million tons)
1950-51 361 2,24,786 50.8
1960-61 439 3,29,825 82.0
1970-71 548 4,74,131 108.4
1980-81 683 6,41,921 129.6
1990-91 846 10,83,572 176.4
2000-01 1,028.7 18,64,300 196.8
2010-11 1,210.2 44,93,743 218.2
Sources: GDP & output of foodgrains from Economic Survey,2010-11. GDP (quick estimates) & foodgrain production (4th advance estimate) correspond to 2009-10.
Population growth, GDP and food gain production in India
Source: analysis based on census 1950-51 to 2001-2011
Labour force and economy
“India’s large population is an important asset, and the key to the economic future of our nation". - Jawaharlal Nehru
A. J. Coale and E. M. Hoover (1958)
Indicated that the rate of economic growth in a developing country is primarily determined by two factors:
1. The growth in labour force; and
2. The amount of capital available per labourer.
Coale and Hoover model
• Today, 36% of India’s one billion populations are below the age of 15 years.
• This means that by 2020, 325 million people in India will reach the working age. India will have the largest working population in the world.
• This expected rise in India’s working population comes at a time when the developed world is faced with large, ageing populations.
Population and labour forces
•US will be short of 17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million.
•Against this, India will have a surplus of 47 million working age people.
•India equipped with the advantage of a large, vibrant work-force, will grow at more than 5% a year until 2050.
year unemployment rate (%)2002 8.82003 9.52004 9.22005 8.92006 7.82007 7.22008 6.82009 10.72010 10.82011 9.8
With limited progress in human development, India’s large population can become a liability rather than an advantage.
Unemployment rate: This entry contains the percent of the labor force that is without jobs.
Population and unemployment trends in India
Source:www.wikipedia.com
povertyDespite of booming economy and a $ 9billion jobs program, India ranks poorly in poverty indicators.
Sources: Indian Government, World Bank (poorest nations)
Countries with the largest percentage of people living on $ 1.25 or less /day (2011)
Capital formation
Adversely affected the capital formation.
More resources are used for meeting the fast increasing population needs & this leaves less resources for increasing productive capacity of the economy.
• Today, high population densities have led to overloaded infrastructure in urban areas.
• 27% of India’s urban population today lives without sanitation; 24% lives without access to tap water.
• The population of India’s major cities is expected to increase by an average of 25% by 2020.
Over-strained infrastructure
India’s population will be 72% urbanized by 2030. It is estimated that India will require construction of 3.6 million housing units in urban areas every year, to address additional population requirements.
Contd..
The annual growth in India’s population alone is estimated to require the opening of 66,000 new primary schools and 3,000 new health centers every year.
Effects on agriculture land
The total area of the country is fixed & where agriculture is predominant.
Population increases at a faster rate, larger and larger area of land is needed for dwelling units, roads, factories, etc.
An estimated half of India’s 329 million hectares of soil is degraded. India will lose all its productive land to desertification within 200 years, if the present annual loss of land continues.
Small size of land holdings results in wastage of land & capital and productivity is adversely affected.
Effect on water and grass lands
The water table in India is falling by an average of 6 feet every year. It is predicted that India will cross into water scarcity by 2025.
The population impact on India’s resources has been severe.
According to the World Bank, resource degradation costs the Indian economy 4.5% of GDP annually.
Common property such as grasslands has declined by 25%, through encroachments and over-cultivation.
Effects on forests
Forests contribute in a big way to economic growth of the country.
Fast increase in population in India resulted in deforestation for ever increasing demand of agricultural land, fuel, wood dwellings, etc.
Effects on mineral resources
Mineral resources are limited.
Faster growth of population & its size in India resulted in greater exploitation of these resources.
This will obviously affects adversely the future economic growth in developing countries.
Food Security
• To provide for the food requirements of the additional population, India will have to consistently increase food production by 3% every year.
The number of people who require a food subsidy would double in 50 years; andGreater pressure would be placed on the government to provide food subsidies.
How to reduce rapid population growth?
1. Expansion of industrial sector:Industrial workers are aware of difficulties in getting the employment & are interested in restricting the size of their family.
2. Creation of employment opportunities in urban areas: The housing problem and the cost of upbringing of children in urban areas are the two factors which usually deter people from having big families
4. Increase education, employment and wages for womenEducation often changes the attitude of a person towards family, marriage and the number of children he/she should have.
3. Equitable distribution of income and removal of povertyPoor people have virtually no interest in limiting the size of the family.
6. Provide better old-age social securityTo reduce the dependency on the children
7. Raising the minimum age of marriage India should try to draw some lesson from the experiences of China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka where fertility decline has occurred largely through an increase in age at marriage.
5. Increase the minimum-age child labor
8. Improve child health to reduce infant mortality
9. Implementation of family-planning programs
10. Monetary subsidies to small families
Population Policy in India
• It is difficult to decide as what is optimum size of population for India under the existing conditions.
• There has been complete reliance on family planning in order to reduce population explosion.
• The national family planning program was launched in 1951, and was the world's first
governmental population stabilization program.
• Low female literacy levels and the lack of widespread availability of birth-control methods is hampering the use of contraception in India.
• Family planning accepted & practiced effectively in some of the states in India.
• Education and awareness needed about Family Planning.
Population and Development: China &
India Two of the world’s fastest growing economies.
China and India, also happen to be the world’s two most populous nations.
In India, it is common to hear the view that, Everything is growing faster in China than India, except
population.
India, which had well under 2/3rd of China’s population half a century ago, is projected to surpass China’s population by 200 million people by 2050.
CONCLUSION☼ India is still attaining its high rates of economic growth despite
the rise in population.
☼ Yet, there are rising problem in India concerning poverty, unemployment, significant increases in the demand for food, water and energy.
☼ So, it became necessary to control population growth.
☼ Education, awareness and improvement in women’s & children’s health will brings down fertility rates and population growth.
