population lecture notes

14
ii. Olher Couses ol on Ageing Populolion *###..s*#* , hygiene crnd voccines, decrih roles hd7-Jolen crnd life expecicrncy ond increosed life exoeclrrrrc:v .mn,ovc.r \--'-# improved considerobly. As o resu 1 of ihe foliing deolh role ond lhe coniinuecl decline in world iertility the wor d's popuiolion is ogeing. (Refer lo Annex I for Ageing Chort) iii. lmpocl ond implicqlions ot on ogeing populolion SOCiOI QOnSeqUenCe. White some clcrughters ond sons rnoy be unwitiing io took ofier iheir porents in old oge, somalnoy find themselves unobte io smOllef fomilieS, mOfe .wome!-.leeded in workforce ond geogrophicol frogmenioii5F?s children-leove home to seorch for work hove mode it oll the more difficull for fomilies to look ofter the elderly. The responsibi ry rhus to s squorely on the shoulclers of the governmenl. ECOnOmiC COnSeqUenCe. ro worsen moilers, os the cilizenry of o colrniry oges, lhe number of young people in the workforce will decline shorply, ihereby Shfinking ihe eCOnOmy. tn foct, ii is the feor of this ihot propes mony governmenls io find woys oncl meons lo preveni such o siluolion from orising. Poliiico-Economic Consequence. wilh o shrinking workJorce ond more oged people, lhe number ol people econoinicolly clependenf will swell. This shiii wil pui on unprecedenled sifOin On gOvefnment fesoUfCeS such os sociot servtces, reliremeni progrcrm5 ond heollhcore systems. The non'profil Pew Reseorch Cenler cliscoverecl some slorlJing stolislics in o siudy il releosecl o lillle over o yeor ogo: Slightly r.ore thon I of every B boby boomers - lhose AloCigg!9 roughly oges 40 to 60 ore simu ioneously roising o child oncl providing some lorm of finoncio ossislcrnce lo o poreni. Demogrophers coll them the 'Sondwich Generotion.,, Ai lhe some lime, projeclions from the U.S. Census BLrreou indicote thot by 2030, the number of Arnericons 65 orolderwill cloLrble, io 7l million, oboul 20 percenl otlhe populotion. Bul ihe number of doctors speciolizing in geriol c core, okeody for loo low is dwindling, nol growing. MedicoJ professionols ond policy mokers collthot the "2030 problem." (l3 Februory 2047, MSllBc.com ond NBC News./ The lotest Jgpg4 Heolth Ministry reporl highlighied ihot there were 5l,0OO more deolhs lhon biths in 2008. The counlry's birlh role remoins omong lhe lo\rest in the developed world. Wilh o popuJolion of 127.7 rnillion, Jopqn foces serious ilconomic consequences cls ils populoiion folls. Low birlh rotes lhreolen lo squeeze lhe economy by shrinking the iobour force which could weigh on iis GDP, leoving fewer workers io support o growing number of pensioners 1l Januory 2009, Ihe Slrcifs nmes)

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Page 1: Population Lecture Notes

ii. Olher Couses ol on Ageing Populolion

*###..s*#*, hygiene crnd voccines, decrih roles hd7-Jolen crnd life expecicrncyond increosed life exoeclrrrrc:v .mn,ovc.r

\--'-#

improved considerobly. As o resu 1 of ihe foliing deolh role ond lhe coniinuecl decline inworld iertility the wor d's popuiolion is ogeing. (Refer lo Annex I for Ageing Chort)

iii. lmpocl ond implicqlions ot on ogeing populolion

SOCiOI QOnSeqUenCe. White some clcrughters ond sons rnoy be unwitiing io took ofieriheir porents in old oge, somalnoy find themselves unobte io smOllef fomilieS, mOfe.wome!-.leeded in workforce ond geogrophicol frogmenioii5F?schildren-leove home to seorch for work hove mode it oll the moredifficull for fomilies to look ofter the elderly. The responsibi ry rhus to s

squorely on the shoulclers of the governmenl.

ECOnOmiC COnSeqUenCe. ro worsen moilers, os the cilizenry of o colrniry oges, lhenumber of young people in the workforce will decline shorply,ihereby Shfinking ihe eCOnOmy. tn foct, ii is the feor of this ihot propes monygovernmenls io find woys oncl meons lo preveni such o siluolion from orising.

Poliiico-Economic Consequence. wilh o shrinking workJorce ond more ogedpeople, lhe number ol people econoinicolly clependenf will swell. This shiii wil pui onunprecedenled sifOin On gOvefnment fesoUfCeS such os sociot servtces,reliremeni progrcrm5 ond heollhcore systems.

The non'profil Pew Reseorch Cenler cliscoverecl some slorlJing stolislics in o siudy il releoseclo lillle over o yeor ogo: Slightly r.ore thon I of every B boby boomers - lhose AloCigg!9roughly oges 40 to 60 ore simu ioneously roising o child oncl providing some lorm offinoncio ossislcrnce lo o poreni. Demogrophers coll them the 'Sondwich Generotion.,, Ai lhesome lime, projeclions from the U.S. Census BLrreou indicote thot by 2030, the number ofArnericons 65 orolderwill cloLrble, io 7l million, oboul 20 percenl otlhe populotion. Bul ihenumber of doctors speciolizing in geriol c core, okeody for loo low is dwindling, nolgrowing. MedicoJ professionols ond policy mokers collthot the "2030 problem." (l3 Februory2047, MSllBc.com ond NBC News./

The lotest Jgpg4 Heolth Ministry reporl highlighied ihot there were 5l,0OO more deolhs lhonbiths in 2008. The counlry's birlh role remoins omong lhe lo\rest in the developed world. Wilho popuJolion of 127.7 rnillion, Jopqn foces serious ilconomic consequences cls ils populoiionfolls. Low birlh rotes lhreolen lo squeeze lhe economy by shrinking the iobour force whichcould weigh on iis GDP, leoving fewer workers io support o growing number of pensioners 1lJanuory 2009, Ihe Slrcifs nmes)

Page 2: Population Lecture Notes

iv. Governmenl Meosures lo lockle on Ageing Populqtion

some governments hove OppeOled tO pOtfiOtiSm io boosi their counfries'birihrote.

vorious Pro-notolisl policles hove olso been proctised by differeni governments. For

one, severo governmenls hove been known io offel monetory incentives in o bidto up lhe numbers.

The Sinoopore governmenl hos iniroduced finonciol incenlives in the form of cosh gifts forihe birih of o child os well os o <Jollor-for-doLlor molching progromme, where lhe governmenlwill moich lhe contribulions mode by porents lo iheir child's Children Developmeni Accounl(cDA).

Bul ore such cosh benefih generolly effeclive? Nol very, occorcling to vorious slLrdies lholiound lhol direcl cosh benefils ore posilively reloted lo feriility brrl ihe effect oppeors io besmoll. For inslonce, French fomily benefils ore esiimoled io increose fertilily by 0.2 childrenper womon on overoge. The lorgeiing of fomily ollowonces wilh lhree or more children olsohcrs o cleor eflecl on ihe progression lo ihird birlhs ond ihe timing of ihe births in Fronce, buithe effeci is smoll. (Vienno Yeorbook af Populot'ion Reseorch 2008)

Closely reloledprocreoiion.

to this is the USe Of 1oX febotes 10 moke il more oliroclive for

Mr. Goh Chok Tong, then First Depuiy Prime Minisfer, onnounced in Morch 1987 the slogon'hirve lhree, or more (children) if you con offord it' os !!ggpg!C's new populolion policy. Thepolicy, which moy be describecl os 'seleciively pro-nololisl', represented o fundcrmenlolchonge in direclion from lhe blonkel "slop ot two" policy which hod been in efiecl for oboullwo decodes untilthe mid l9B0s.

in Sinoopore, the omounl ol relief o molher receives depencls on ihe order of her children,with the firsi child enobling her child relief of 5 per ceni of her eorned income. Thispercenioge goes up io 25 per cenl for her fourlh chiLd. This relief wos introduced from Yeor ofAssessmenl 2005 10 reword fomilies with children holding Singopore cilizenship ondencouroge monied women io remojn in lhe workforce ofter giving birih. A molher con olsocloim lwice lhe lolol foreign domeslic worker levy poid in lhe previous yeor, on one ioreignmoid. This reliel oims to encouroge morried women 10 remoin in the workforce ofier hovingchilclren ond io encouroge procreolion.

timitotion

While monelory incentives ond lox reboies moy be oliroclive io lower ond middle incomecouples operoling on ljghi budgets, lhese mighi nol be ollroclive io high income, coreeFminded couples who do noi wont bobies.

Page 3: Population Lecture Notes

Another proncrtcitisi rneosure invo ves Creoling O fomily-ffiendly soCieiy io mokeil eosier for lodoy's duolbreodwinner couples io hove more bobies wilhoLii iheir feeling lheneed io socrifice iheir ccrreers. Woys lo do so include the ocloplion of o live doy work week,ihe giving of generous pcrid eove 10 oilencl lo fomily mcliiers, longer mctlerniiy ond polernilyleove, o5 well os more creches oi workploces.

ln Fronce, ihe number of creches crvolloble hos been increosing since 1983. Uolike in norihernEuropecrn counlries, lhis iype of core k ovoiloble immedioiely ofler lhe end of ihe molernityleove i.e. from when lhe boby is two or lhree monihs old, ond lhe hours covered oreextensive: on weekdoys from 7:00 to 8:00 to 18:00 t9:00. This proclice helps ihe mother 10reconcile work ond fcrmillol responsibililies. ln 1994, the cl locolion porenlole d,educolion(APEJ wcrs designed 1o ollow one of lhe porenls {in proclice, molhersl io devoie lhemselvesenlirely 10 bringing up lhe newborn child untiliis third birihdoy. For o periocj of three yeors ormore, porenls who siop working lo roise lheir youngest child receive o fixed omounl ofmoney. Porenls who clecide to work porl,lime receive o porlioJ qllocolion.

Neqolive Consequences

Sorne concerns orose regording lhe negolive effeci this hocl on coreer polh, since such ohicrius mighl hinder one's prospecls of scoling ihe corporole lodder. At the some tirne, sucho move moy olso couse emp oyers lo prociise discriminolory policies ogoinsl women ingenerol, given lhol lhey cre poleniiol molhers. So, sjnce 2006, porenis of ol eosl ihreechildren hove been oble io choose between o one-yeor leove with o higher benefii ond othree-yeor leove with lower benefii. (Vienno yeorbook of Populotian Reseorch 2008)

lr-plov-r. r llqnce _o.- o--n ^1, or'oqed oimpt-'ne| lh-it o^nton.7-f r-rdrTpoai^,eilher clireclly or vio o works counci. For insionce, the 'fornily lox crecjil' wos iniroducecl onI Jonuory 2004 wiih the oim of encouroging componies io irnplemenl child core provisions.This iox creclli represenls 25% of lhe clmounls spenl, up to o moxirnum o{ 9500,000 per yeoroncl employer, for ihe creotion of doy core cenlres for empoyees' children under lhree,iroining employees on poreniol leove, supplemeniory poymenls for poternity, moterniiy,porenioi or chilcl sick leove ond poymeni of employees' exceplionol chilcl core expensesdue lo unforeseeoble work commilmenls oulsicle normolwork hours.

However, in 2005, o yeor ofter the iniroduction of the ,fomily iox credil', only l% of ollesloblishmenls ihol hod not yei oifered doy cqre ploces were plonning 10 do so in lhefulure. (Vienno Yeorbook of Popu/dfion Reseorch 2008J

For sinoopore. encouroging workers to stoy employed beyond lhefetifement Age al 62 is seen os port of the so ution in c1 country where one in fivepeople willbe ogecl 65 ond obove by 2030. Thol iigure compores wiih just one in l2losl yeor.However, sociologisls hove highiighied the cholJenge of needing 1o chonge ihe minclsei lhoiviews oicler people os simply o burden-

Page 4: Population Lecture Notes

Uniied Notions projections indicote thoi over lhe nexl 50 yeors, lhe popLrlolions of virluolly ollcouniries of Europe os well os Jopon will foce populoiion decline ond populolion ogeing.Focusing on these iwo siriking ond crilicol populolion irends, ihe repod considersreplocemenl migroiion for eight low fertiliiy couniries (Fronce, Germony, lloly, Jopon,Republic of Koreo, Russion Federolion, United Kingdom crnd United Stoies) ond lwo regionslEurope ond lhe Europeon Union). Replocemeni migroiion refers io ihe inlernoiionolmigrotion thol o couniry would need lo olfsel populotion decline ond populolion ogeingresullinq from low ferlility ond mortolily rotes.

The Viobility of migfotion os o soluiion lo cleclining ond ogeing populolion is beingconsidereci in mony developed counlries.

v. USA ond lmmigrolion

lhe U.S. popu olion reoched ihe historic milestone o1300 million on Tuesdoy morning. This 300lrrillion milestone comes iusi 39 yeors ofler lhe 200 million mork wos reoched on Nov.20, 1967.

Th-- U.s. populolion hii 100 million 139 yeors ofler lhe country wos ofiiciolly estoblished, look52 yeors io reoch lhe 200 million mileslone in 1967, ond only 39 yeors to hii 300 million onluescloy- Accorcling io ihe 2006 nolionol populotion estimoles, the Uniied Sloles regislers onebirlh every seven seconds ond one deolh every l3 seconds, while nel internolionol migroiionis expecled 10 ocld one person every 3l seconds. The resull is on increose in ihe lololpopuloiion of one person every I I seconds.lhe LJ-S. odds oboul2.B rnillion people o yeor, oto growlh role of less thon I percent. Aboul 40 percenl of the growih comes iromimmigrolion, which spurs conlinued growlh ond clivers;ty. The rest comes from birihs

oulnumberins deoihs. lmmigrotion, especiolly from Lolin Americo ondAsio, drives much of the populoiion growth ond promises toreshope the United Stotes os o more diverse notion ond onewhere the overoge oge will increose more slowly lhon in mostother industriolized noiions. According lo lhe census Bureou, l4 percenl of thecurrent U.S. populolion is Hisponic, compored lo four percenl in 1968, ond il is projected thol25 percenl of the populolion will be Hisponlc in 2050. The lmmigroiion ond NcllurolizolionServices Acl of 1965 obolished nolionol origin quolos iixed jn the 1920s ond opened lhenoiion's shores lo new immigronts.lodoy, the Uniled Sloles occepis more legolimmigronh os

permonent residenis lhon lhe resl of lhe wodd combinecl. / l7 Octaber 2406, Xinhuo)

lhe Silggpgrq governmeni hos, over lhe yeors, welcomed quolilied young people lo ensureenoLrgh workers for higher-tech employers, like nurses, 1.T- iechnicions ond lob ossistonls.These people ofiive wiih iheir own knowledge of foreign morkels ond mony of lhem infusenew ideos inlo ihe locol work or service scenes. Anoiher cruciol reoson lor loking in such obig group --over o long lerm - is lo reiuvenole ond increose on ogeing, declining populoiionond reploce ihe lhousonds of Singoporeons working or emigroling obroocl.

such o siluolion is noi likely lo be susloinoble in lhe longer term, soid severino, now o visitingsenior reseorch fellow with lhe lnslltuie of Souiheasi Asion Studies. He highlighled ihe sociollrnpoci lhot would orise crs cr resuli, ciling its threol lo sociol cohesion, given lhoi lhe enlry offoreigners in cerloin seciors moy be viewed os on undesiroble form of compelilion forjobs bythe locols ond in certoin socielies, the presence of toreign workers coul<i be disrupiive lo lherociol, religious or ethnic bolonce in ihol society. {9 September 20o7, The slroils limes)

Page 5: Population Lecture Notes

Mony Americon hospitols ore toking it upon themselves torepolriole seriously in.iured or ill immigronls becouse they connotfind nursing homes willing to occept them withoul insuronce.Medicoid does nol cover longjerm core for illegol immigronfs, or for newly orrived legolimmigronis, creoling o quondory for hospiiols, which ore obligoled by federol regulolion tooronge posl hospilol core for polienh who need il. Americon immigroiion ouihoriiies ployno role in lhese privole repoiriotions, cclnied oul by ombulonce, olr ombulonce onclcommerciol plone.

A few hospiiols ond consuloies offered slotislics Jhol provide snopshols of ihe phenomenon:some 96 irnmigronls o yeor repolriolecl by 5t. Joseph's Hospilol in phoenir; 6 io B polienls oyeor flown lo lheir homelonds from Broword Generol Mediccrl Cenler in Forl Louderdole, Flo.;lO relurned io Honcjuros from Chicogo horpilols since eorly 2OO7; some B/ medicol cosesinvolving Mexicon immigronis - ond 265 involving people injured crossing lhe border -hondlecl by the Mexicon consulole in Son Diego losl yeor, most bul nol oll of which ended inrepoiriolion.

Some odvocotes for immigronls see these repotriotions os o kindof internolionol poiienl dumping, with ombulonces loking potientsin the wrong direction, owoy from first-world hospilols 1o less-OdeqUOie COfe, if ony. Hospitol odminislrotors view these coses os cosity, burdensomepolient tronsfers ihol force lhem io shoulder responsibilily for the dysfunciionol immigrolionond heolih'core syslems. ln mony coses, they soy, ihe only ollernotive lo repojriolions is

keeping potients indefinilely in oclrie core hospilols, which in lurn puis o slrclln on lheirsvsiem. /3 Auoust Ihe New York IimesJ

Page 6: Population Lecture Notes

cD. A Chser fooLat Overyopufatian

i. Overpopulolion. is when lhe long term copociiy of on oreo to susloin ils cunenl humon occuponls is

being degroded by over-ulilisotion of resources.

ii. Globql Demogrophic Trends qnd Dishibution (source: United Notions Populolion Fund)). By 1900: 1.65 billion. By 1950: 3.02 billion. By 1999:6 billion. By 2050: I billion or more (projected)

World PoFulatlon Growth, AElual and Prorected, lS50-?050

UNITED NATIC,NS PRO JEcIIoNSlHioh lMedi!ln I-o@

. NOTE: Whether on oreo is overpopuloted or nolpopulofion densily.

. Developing counldes in Africo ond South Asioresources ond hove poor economic prospeclsgrowlhs ore likely to be overpopuloied.

1950 1080 1900 ?o1l

is nol jusi o motter of ossessing its high

ihol ore fosf depleling their nolurolbul ore experiencing high populoiion

It0

!I7

E

E'

5.

5'

t4

1000 ?000

Molthusiqn Populolion Theory (1 798)

Page 7: Population Lecture Notes

iii. Where populolion is increosing ond why (tn devetopino counlies)

lnceniives for hoving lorger fomilies due to ogrorion noture or monyoreos such os Africo. Lolin Americo ond oorts ot Asio. ln siluolions where ihere ore noeconomic opporlunilies beyond subsislence, lobolrr thus becomes crn imporionl economicossel for ihe forriy.

Technology imporled from indusiriolised countrles not onty improveclliving concliiions, bul coused declth roles io plunge dromolicolly. Think improvemenb towoier suppies, sonilotion, lronsporiolion neJvr'orks ond ogricullurol yielcls os wel osinexpensive imporls of voccines, ontibiolics, insecticicles ond high-yield seeds.

OVFR THE lost fifiy yeors, lhere hos been o noloble reduclion in otd oge morfoliiy. Longeviiyof h rrons hos risen subsloniiolly otl over ihe world. lhe sttuolion in !!!!!g is slrikjng; theov(rroge lilespon of on lndion hos risen from less ihon 50 yeors lo over 62 yeors wilhin lhe losllhre' generoJjons. Foclors such os lncreosed immunity 10 pothogens, betler nuirition, betierpri, jreollh ond sonitoiion, ond the discovery oncl use of efteclive drugs oncl voccines orerc , ,, ,,ib e for lhis increose in lifespon. The siiuolion in Wesiern Europe, US ond Jopon is evenrrrorl slriking, where people live up io lheir seveniies, crnd ore louching lhe Bo-yeor mork.(Mt i!' ') 29, 2001, fhe Hindu)

Lovu StOtUS Of Women. Women oTe often deniect educcriionoloppo lunities ond hove few ollernolives lo lheir childbeoring roles.

oncJ employmeni

ln 4!r!:g, hoving mony children nor "rffiI r.,! iJ none, o greol curse. lnvoriobly, o wife's wodh moy be judged by her fedilify. tf she fois

ic l;t:or children, she moy be reploced or scorned_ To men, numerous offspring ore ljvings! _,ols of virility. Wives ond offspring represenl weolih in lhe form of monpower. Childreno ! cpresenl o sociol secufity syslem on o continenl Jhol suffers from o hjgh infont moriolityroie The more children ore born, the greoler lhe chonce thol some will survive to supporlporenls in lheir olcl oge. / I I Aug 1985, New Yarkfimes)

Page 8: Population Lecture Notes

iv. couses otoverpopu oiion

Over Populolion {Nole thot mony ol lhese fociors inlerocl lo creoiein o counlry)

High / increosing birlh roie d!e to ignoronce of controception.

CUltUfOl fOCtOfS sucf' os o clesire for big iomilies, on obligoiion lo beof mole heirs onclan obhorrence of birth conlrol often brin€J oboLli resistonce lo conlroception.

A[igq! birlh rotes ore high becouse in mosl cullures, mony children symbo]ize presiige ondensure old oge securily. ln oncienl Hebrew cullure, ihe beoring of mony chilclren wosviewed os eviclence of clivine opprovol oncl blessing. (Jouroal of lbe Americon Scieniific

LoW morlolily roie ond longer liiespcrn due 1o mediCOl odvonces.

Politicol / Governonce foctorpo icies io control the populoiion growlh ofclnd resources lo susloin the popu otion.

or inefieclive populoiionof odequoie infroskuclure

such os the lock olo couniry or lhe lock

More ond more peope ore seeking sofe hoven in the Dodoob Refugee Comp inneighboring fclyq os worfore in Somolio roges on. The ihree setllements hove lhe disiinclionof being one of ihe worlds lorgesl refugee cornps ond now house more lhon lwice thenurriber of people thon lhey were buill lo occommodole. Lond is scorce. Supplies ore beingsireiched to the limil ond slress Levels of residenls ond oid workers olike ore running high.

Across lhe border, Somoli<r hos been embroiled in civil wor for neorly lwo decodes. Al leoslholt of Mogodishu s residenls hove fled the copilol ond other poris of Somolio in lhe posiseverol monihs moinLy becouse oi closhes belween Elhiopion lroops ond lslornisi insurgenis.l4 December 20A8, Voice af Ameico)

Page 9: Population Lecture Notes

ECOnOmic fOCtOf where cleveloping economies clo noi generole oclequoie revenuefor economic growth.

ReligiOus fOClOf where cfiificiot mecrns of birih conirol ore opposecl.

While in time. permission wos given io couples lo prociice ihe rhythm meihod forconlrocepiion, ihe Romon Church condemnecl "ortificiol conlrocepiives in moinjoininq iholcoilus is ultimoiely juslifioble only for begetlinq chjtdren. /Journol of ihe Americon Scienlific

ln 1970, ihe Philippine governrneni iounched the philippineond ol-r l1e Nolionol I orn ly P o.rriro Progrom.

The Colholic bishops, however, opposed on efforl lo redLJce lhe nurnber of chlldren counieclos depenclenls for lox purposes, secured lhe removol of ihe populoiion plonning clouse froinlhe drofl of-ihe Constilulion, ond ollemplecl to end governmenl populolion progroms.

Populoiion Progrom (FOPCOM)

v. lmpocl / lmplicolions ol Oyerpopulolion

Lock of occess to iood woLrtd couse mOlnutfition ond storvoiionlock ol bosic hecrllhcore services ond iniormoiion, mony would foll preyeven deoth.

. Coupled wiih ihe

ro diseoses or

lhe world's foslesl growing populotion is in Africo. Neorty three fifihs of ihe 4.8 bi ion peoplein cleveloping counlries ock bosic sonilolion, olmosi o lhircl hove no crccess lo cleon woier,o quoder lock odequole housing, ond o fjfth lock occess lo modern heolth services.(Notianol Geographic)

As lhe populoiion increoses ihere is o needsupport lhe populolion, especiolly to providePopulation /nsiiluie poinis oui ihol lhe wo6tclrinkinq woter.

io increose the obiiiy of lhe environmenl iocleon drinkincJ wofer. Lowrence Smlth of the

effect of overpopulolion is the lock of cleon

lnodequote supply of housing resuits in overcrowding, ond this in turn hos onegoiive effeci on lhe hygiene evels oi lhe communiiy. Also, o lock of proper soniiolionleods lo lhe conlom'noiion oi woier supplies, lhereby conlribuling to lhe spreod of cliseoses.

The supply of freshwoier is finite, bul demond is sooring os populoiion grows ond use percopito rjses. By 2025, when world poputolion is projecied to be B bi jon, 48 countriesconioining 3 bilhon people will foce shorloges. lpopu/oiion ond the Envianment: Ihe GlabatChollenge, 2000 Johns Hopkins University repotf)

Page 10: Population Lecture Notes

High illitefocy moy orise due lo lhe incrbility of supply io meel ihe demond foreducolion, os well os lhe siluolion where porenls moy nol see lhe need for or ore nol oble loprovide on educolion for their children. This ln iurn pfevenls the loltef ffomgoining occess to better economic opportunities, thereby trc,ppins ihe

fomily in o vicious poverly cycle- Ihe lock of on eclucolion rnoy olso resull in ignOfOnCeof lhe repercussions of populotion- ond environmentreloledproblems. et in. .ountry level, fewer educoled workers wil offecl the economicgrowth of the country.

Due lo o ropidLy growing populolion, o greoier percenloge of the resources ore used up insotisfying lhe bosic needs of lhe mosses rolher thon io generole economic growlh. To

worsen mollers, on Lrneducoled popLr oce would invoriobly meon cln oilendont heovyrelionce on lobour inlensive primory oncl monufoctuing indusiries - which ore, unforlunolely,

uncble io generote much revenue.

Environmentol degrodotion moy ensue given the exploiloiion of nolurol resources

ond pollulion brouqhl obout by vorious economic oclivilies.

An oslonishing 98 perceni of llqdqgglggl's lond mommols, 92 percenl of ils reptiles, 68

percenl of ils ponh ond 4l percent of iis breeding bird species exisl nowhere else on Eorih

The lLriure of lhese remorkoble plonls ond onimols is, however, for flom seclrre. Mossivedeforeslolion hos loken ploce since the 1970s. only o frogmenl ol lhe islond's originol foreslcover remoins ond over 3OO species of ih plonls ond onimols ore lhreolened wiih exlinclionThe plight of lhe humon populolion is olso grim- Wilh on overoge per copilo income ofUS$216 o yeor ond o foreign clebi ihdt neorly equols ils gross noiionol producl, the islond is

ronkecl omongsl lhe pooresl nolions in the world. To the Mologosy people, collle hclve greolculturol, spiriiLrol ond economic significonce. As borgoining chips for exchonges includingbrides ond personol properiy, collie ore o form of weojih, pricle ond finonciol securily. Thecoltle cullure is especiolly slrong in cenlrol ond soulhem Modogoscor. Unfortunotely, loomony colile on too litlle lond hove disoslrous effecls on nolurol hobiiol Heovy grozing os

well os slosh-ond-burn ogriculture couse severe erosion even where humon populolions orecomporotively sporse. The soils of weslern Modogoscor hove been degroded 10 lhe poinlwhere ihe nolive dry forests ond ihickels seem unoble lo regenero'te. (World Wide Fund farNoiurel

nobility of

firmly inlhe people lopoverty ond

sustoin lhemselves oncl their

in the poverty cycle.fomiries entrenches them

Page 11: Population Lecture Notes

Gendef ineqUity. Women moke up iwoJhirds of ihe wortd,s poorest peopte crnd oreiwice os likely os men 10 be illiterote. They receive less eciucolion ond less food ond hoveiewer legcrl righls, especiolly ihose in the cleveloping wor d. fc/ob ot Fund t'ar Wamen)

A phenomenon nolicecl poriicLrlcf y in Soulh Asio is seleciive educoiion ond heoih core,wilh shorply lower eniiiemenis lor wornen ond girk reloiive io men ond boys. Suchdifferenlio s jn enliilemenis ore reinforcecl lhrouqh qenclered norms oad volues lhoipeTmeole ocross ihe economic speclrLrm. While they tend io be ower in inlensiiy for beter,off households, they do noi cornpleiely disoppeor. {sen, ciio. paveiy os o GenderedExperience: Ihe porc y i m pli c o li ans)

Sociol ond Politicol Disorder con occuT os people struggle io poy for everyctoygoods.

oud Canflicf in Africo: Exploining o Camplex Re/oiionship.J

Some oncrlysls ore ol lhe view lhoi the podiciponts in mony ol Africo,s violeni demonslrotionsond v.,ors in receni yeors, hove been moved by ihe poor economic condiiions uncler whichihcy live. Some, for jnsionce, orgue thol whea guerillos join o rebel group, they moy obloinfood ond cloihing os well os opporfuniiies for recogniiion ond odvoncemeni ihol orenorro y unovoiloble lo lhem in on urbon slum or o forming communiiy. This seems io be\\,: ol is oying orii in West Africo, where lhe numerous rebel movemenis hclve becorneso!.r(j, of opporlunily for unemployed young men. lDrclmon, Rosheed. May 2003. paverly

vi. Meosures

To slOw dOwn pOpUlOtiOn growlh, which in lurn frees up votuobte iinonciotresources nee<Jed io boosl infrosiruclure ond services lo creclle belter living siondclrds foriheir people, some governmenls hove iried to moke bifth control servicesond focililies occessible ond offordoble.

According lo o September 2008 repori cJone by John Hopkins Bloomberg Schoo of publicHeolih, viilogers in the Motlob clistricl of Bonolodesh receivecl door-lo cloor ouireclch fomilyplonning oncj molernol-child heollh services Iton 1977 ia 1996. The siudy found subslonlioldecreoses in feriilily ond chiid mortcllily in the vilclges, os well os posilive effeck on women'shecrllh, eornings ond household osseJs, use of preveniive heollh services, oncl heoiih onclschoo ing of children.

Page 12: Population Lecture Notes

ln 1997 ihe zombid Minislry of Heollh developed o policy fron ework lhol outlinecl slroiegiesfor improving occess lo ond quolily of fomily pJonning serylces. These skolegies incllcleclremoving unnecessory medicol policy ond proclice boIiers lo conlroceptive use,developing service-clellvery guidelines bosed on lhe WHO Meclicol Eligibilily C ierio, oncloppoinling o chompion ol the Cenlrol Boord of Heollh 1o slrengihen logistics. With lhe heipof ihese new supporlive policies, use of modern conlroceplion omong morried women ofreproduclive oge in Zombio rose irom 9% in 199210 23% in 2442.

Also, edUco t;on lo enob e individuoh lo be owore ofpopulolion reloled issues to clecision mcrking oi personol,hos olso been hoiled os o woy lo curb populolion growth.

To oclclress low levels of controceplive !.rse in Molowi in ihe eorly 1990s, o group ol fomiyplcrnning chompions odvocoted posiing o lomily plonning coordinotor in eoch clislrict. Thepolicy choiige hos coniribuled io lhe neorly universcrl crvoilobility of coniroceplion in Molowi.lseplember 20AB report by Jahn Hopkins B/oomberg School of Public Heolfh)

According lo Preliminory dolo from o new nolionol survey in o new reporl - Fomily P onningin E]lgrclq: llow o Toboo Toplc Become Priorily Number One pLJblished by lniroHeolihlnlernolionol (which hos co loboroled wilh the Rwondcrn governmeni ond locol NGos sincelhe lcrie 1980s lo improve fonrily plonning servicet, ihere wos o dromotic rise in use ofmodern conlroception omong morried women In Rwondo, Africo s rnosl densely popu otedcounlry, from l0% in 2005 to 27% in 2A0A. Dolo collecled olso showed o decreose inRwonclo's ierliliiy role lo on overoge of 5-5 chilclren per womon, down from 6.1.

Pope Goye, lntroHeolih's Presidenl ond CEO, ottribLJies this lo "sirong governmenlleodership, beiter occess lo o ronge of conlrocepiive meihods ond heollh workers who orewell lroined".

lhe Rwondo Minhler of Heollh hos been o consislenlly slrong odvocole, even doingcondom demonslrolions on ielevision ond publicly reprimonding religious leoclers for lheirfoilure 1o supporl fomily plonning. ln ocldliion, in 2007, lhe governmenl inclLJdecl o line ilem ofUs$200,000 in the budget for conlroceplives, wilh the crLlocotion being lncreosed lo cr

some governmenls resoried lo punitive TneOSUreS \uch c,s finonciol peno lies, whlle

others re ied 'nore

on incenlives.

ond unclerslond ihe relevonce olnoiionol ond inlernolionol levels

According lo the 51ote of Worlcl Populoiion 2008 report by llnitecl Nolions Populcrlion Fund(UNFPA), one excrmple is ihe ropid increose in conlroceplive use omong couples in thelslomic Republic of lron ond lhe ensuing decline in ferliliiy rcries- n 1989. ihe notionol fomilyplcrnning progromme goined the suppori of high ronking reigious leoders who promoledsmoller fomilies in their weekly serrnons os o sociol responsibility.

Page 13: Population Lecture Notes

In ihe eoriy l?2,0s, the lndion governmeni inlrocluced finonciol inceniives for occeplors offcrmily plonning os well os ior sloff. Money, locrns, subsidies, blonkeis, irxlusion in food lor workprogrommes, were some of the incentives offerecl lo occeplors of fomlly p onrring. Flecjlihstoft, iogether wiih o moiivqtoi, wcrs olso reworded wiih rnoney, prizes, prornollons ondqoocl postinqs.

Some lndion sfoies, however, broughl in the lwo child limit 15 yeors ogo in on ollempl ioconlrol populolion growlh in ihe country. The chilcl-reslriclion low bqrled people wiih moreihon iwo children from running for poliiicol office or serving os poliiicions.

The lndion populolion inceniives crncl disincenlives hove, for olmosl 40 yeors from ihe eorlyl9l,Os 1o 2000, creoled hovoc- Slofl spenl much more lime on fom;y p onl]ing ociiviiies lhonon heollh becouse oi ihe incenlives. RecorCs were folsified, o broncl new fornj ol corruplioncome inlo being, ond women were coerced by stoff, husbcrn.ls or relolives inio undergolngsierilis.rllons ln Llnscrle condilions. Jhe scheme wos oflensive ln ilself os li look odvonioge ofthe econorric ond socioi vulnerobiliiy of the poor wjlhoui doing onylhing io improv,^ iheir lolln ife. lhe iwo child limil wos criticised for resuliing in disoslrous sociol consequences, wiihcoup es ob_orting lhird pregncrncies, giving children up fo. ocloplion, or loiling lo regisler ochil.l's birth

Yel olhers lurne.J to COefClVe meOSUfeS, inciucling k]lced oboriions ond slcJilisolior)5,in o bicl lo coniro popLr oliof qrowih

According 1() o 88C oriicle doied 20 Sepi 1998, 250,000 women hove r.rnclergone forcedsierilisolion in lelq in ihe losl lhree yeors. ln the eody 1990s, the then Presiclenl AbedoFujlmoris government conclLJcled o policy of forced sieriisotion omong women ln poor oreosof the country, mony of whom hcrve been sleriiised wiihoui their knowledge oT consenl.Some olhers only crgreecl io sleilhotion ofler lhreoh were mode ogoinsl lhem ond iheirfomilies. During thot period, Peru s Minisiry of Heollh olso issued o series of steriliscllion quoloslo clociors working in poor oreos of ihe counlry.

Accorcling 1o o lime orticle doied 30 Apri 2007, Chinese governmeni hod insisled thot it hodbcrnnecl coercive birlh-conlrol proclices in the countryside commonly emp oyed bybureoucrols eoger io compy with Beijing's populolion conkol gools. Siil, lhese cosesconiinue io surfoce. Activisls soy this is o troubling remincler of lhe schizophrenic opprooch ofthe cenlrol governmenl lowords ils own one-child policy: On the one honcl. lhe cluthoriliesore loosening up, wel owore thol the scheme, which restrich couples lo one child ondimposes iines ond olher sonclions on violoiors, hcrs lorgely oullived ils usefulness. On ihe olherhcrnd, Beijing conllnues io moke enforcemeni ol lhe policy one of lhe lwo moin yordslicks bywhich lhe periormonce of ocol bureoucrcrls ond hence lheir prospecis for oclvoncemenl

ore judged. li is this pressLrre from obove lo comply wilh popu olion quoios lhoi promphloco officiols lo oclopi meosures such os forced obortion {somelimes heorlrendingy lole inlerm). forced sierilisoiion ond ihe like, soys Nicolos Becquelin ol New York-bosed HumonRighls in Chino.

Chinese officiols soy ihe curreni feriiliiy role is beiween L7 ond LI birlhs per womon, wellbelow the 2.1 births needed to keep the populolion oi o sioble level. Overseos experlsdispuie this figure; ihey soy the ferlilily role is even lower ond stonds ol L5. Mony Chineseoncl iore'gn crcodemics belleve this policy is o rnisioke ond will resull in o aumber of seriousdemogrophic problems in lhe fulure, such os on increosing proporlion of older people, osmoller workforce oncl o disproporlionole number of boys lo girls. /20 Sepiember 2007, BBC

Page 14: Population Lecture Notes

E. cPopufation Qontrof

i. Delinilion

Vorious governmenls hove employed differeni meosures in o bid to ochieve on oplimumpopulolion. Populotion conlrol is ony melhodology used to limit populolion increose ondincludes proclices such os educoiion, conlroceplion, obslinence, oborlion, emigrolion,decreosing immigroiion, increosing deolh rote, infonlicide ond finonciol disincenlives ordisincenlives.

ii. Vorious Perspeclives ot Populolion conlrol

Thomos Molihus.

Poul R. Ehrlich, o US biologist ond environrnenfolisl, published lhe Populolian Eomb in 1968,

odvocoling siringenl populolion conlrol policies. According to him, 'b concer is onuncontrolled mulliplicoiion of cells; the popL/Jolion exp/osion is on uncantrolled multiplicolionaf people. Trealing only ihe symploms of concer moy moke lhe victim more comfarfoble otfist, bt)f eventuolly he dies - ofien horribly. A similot fate owoils o world wilh o popula onexplosian if only lhe symploms ore treoted. We muslshifl our effods frcm lrcatment of thesympioms lo lhe cutiing oul ot' lhe concer.Ihe operafian will demond mony opporenl btutolond heod/ess decisions- Ihe poin moy be inlense. Bul lhe diseose is so For odvonced ihotonly with rodicol sorgery does lhe polienf hove o chonce lo survive".

Religious pefspeclive. fne Rornon colholic church hos opposed populolion conlrolpolicies. Pope Benedict XVI hos sloled thoi "the exierminotion of milJions of unborn children,in lhe nome of the fighl crgoinsi povedy, ocluolly conslilules lhe deslruciion of lhe poorest ofoll hurnon beinqs"-

Ethicol perspeclive, uony hove opposed populoiion control, ciling thot il is ogoinslthe ows of nofure, is o threot to individrlol freedom given lhot it louches humoniiy's bosicond privole oclivities ond thoi it violotes the sonctity of life.