population: population shrinkage, rural depopulation...
TRANSCRIPT
Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation, Aging Society
Introduction to Japanese Society Week 2Philip Seaton
www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14
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0,000
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2018
Population of Japan
Now dropping about 200,000 people a year.
Population of Japan, 1872-2018
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Population Pyramid
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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan
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Changes in the Population Pyramid
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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan
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Proportion of Elderly Population
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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan
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• Increased costs of pensions, care, medical treatment.
• Economic opportunities created by a genki, “leisure” class.
• Read the article by: Muramatsu & Akiyama, "Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future".
Implications of an Aging Society
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Natural Population Change
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Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan
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• Encourage fertility.
• Prevent mortality.
• Immigration of the young; migration of the old.
• Don’t worry, be happy!
• Seek out the “depopulation dividend”.
Japan’s Options
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• Peter Matanle, "Towards an Asia-Pacific 'Depopulation Dividend' in the 21st Century”.
• National vs Regional vs Metropolitan depopulation.
• Japan’s urban hubs as population magnets.
• Why are we obsessed with growth, including population growth? Why aren’t we celebrating shrinkage?
The Depopulation Dividend
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• The end of demographic growth = the end of economic growth? But who needs growth?
• GDP as a silly measure of well-being or happiness in society.
• Let’s hear a talk by Kate Raworth, a visionary economic thinker.
• Video: “A Healthy Economy Should Be Designed To Thrive, not Grow” (16 mins).
Doughnut Economics
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The Doughnut
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Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century
Economist, p. 11.
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The Yubari Story
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0,000
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
Hokkaido Sapporo
4.4% 6.3%10.4%
25.1%37.8%
Hokkaido Peak: in 1997 at 5.7 million.
Now shrinking.
Sapporo’s relentless rise (over 1.955 million in 2019).
Hokkaido & Sapporo Populations
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Yubari
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A coal mining town in the mountains …
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… famous for melons …
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2007 Hollywood remake
Locations are still a tourist site in Yubari
The Yellow Handkerchief of Happiness
… and film …
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Population of Yubari
Developing coal town
War: coal a key resource
Postwar boom
1959: From coal to oil
What to do?
… and population collapse.
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Population of Yubari
Developing coal town
War: coal a key resource
Postwar boom
1959: From coal to oil
1980s: “from mines to tourism”
… and population collapse.
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Tourism Strategy
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Tourism Strategy
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Financial Folly
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2009: While crowds flock to the new Hanabatake Bokujo raw
caramel factory ...
... the area around the Coal Mining Museum is almost
deserted.
The Limits of Tourism
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2018
Population of Yubari
Developing coal town
War: coal a key resource
Postwar boom
1959: From coal to oil
1980s: “from mines to tourism”
2006: financial collapse
Financial Collapse
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• Underlying causes:1. Depopulation, aging population: increased demand
for services on a reduced tax base.2. Mismanagement: reckless spending on tourism,
financial irregularities, pork-barrel politics.3. Decentralization policy: Koizumi reforms (Trinity
Reforms 2003) shifts responsibility for local taxation onto local authorities.
Financial Collapse
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• A young, energetic mayor.
• A “compact city plan”.
• Shutting down wasteful sites.
• Attracting new business.
• Relocating the population to nearer the city centre.
• But, debt will continue for years … with a population of 50% over 65 years old (since May 2017).
Suzuki Naomichi (DoB 1981)Since April 2019 Japan’s
youngest prefectural governor!
Yubari Strikes Back!
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• Multicultural Japan – minorities, urban vs rural, prefectural characteristics.
• Suggested Reading: Handbook Chapter 2; Sugimoto Chapters 1, 3, 7; Hendry Chapter 4; Kingston Chapters 16, 19.
Next time
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