Portfolio Committee on Environmental Affairs

Deidré Penfold

Executive Director

22 September 2015

INTRODUCTION

• The UNFCCC’s 21st Conference of the Parties, to be held from 30

November – 11 December 2015, is expected to result in national

commitments, through each country’s INDC, towards greenhouse gas

emission mitigation

• It is important that a global initiative to mitigate anthropogenic GHG

emissions be instituted to reduce the risk of significant adverse

environmental impacts being experienced as a result of climate

change, and that South Africa also commits to mitigation action

• Sustainable Development Goal number 13 is captured by the need to

take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

• CAIA recognises South Africa’s position as a leader of the Group of 77

countries and China, and of the African Group

Challenges to the Chemical Industry…1

• The mitigation goals that are currently drafted in the SA INDC are aligned with:

› the pledge that was made to reduce emissions from the “Business As

Usual” emissions growth trajectory by 34% by 2020 and by 42% by 2025

› the shape of the peak-plateau-decline (PPD) trajectory that is reflected by

the emissions volumes provided in the NCCRWP

Challenges to the Chemical Industry…2

• However, the goals committed to by Government, and thus by South Africa, must be:

› agreed upon (nationally determined),

› achievable (must not put South Africa’s development at risk), and

› based on reliable information (emissions, economic growth and electricity)

Challenges to the Chemical Industry…3

• The intention that South Africa’s emissions will peak, then remain stable, and

then decline (the shape of the PPD) is not disputed

• However, the emissions volumes that are prescribed for each turning point,

and the years at which the turning points occur, are believed to require

revision. Additional emissions space must be reflected in South Africa’s

commitment over the short- and medium-term as emissions are likely to peak

later than anticipated.

• Such additional emissions space can be claimed through additional flexibility

being provided for in the SA INDC.

Challenges to the Chemical Industry…4

• Information used to construct the PPD trajectory is now outdated

› The LTMS Study - emissions from electricity sector require revision

› Slowed economic growth over a number of years does not warrant the

same trajectory being used

› Decreased electricity production and supply due to challenges faced by

Eskom, and the compounded effect on emissions from other economic

activities

› Continued reliance on coal for the generation of electricity will result in

emissions peaking later than anticipated. Additional flexibility is required in

the INDC

Challenges to the Chemical Industry…5

• CAIA believes that there is scope for the PPD trajectory to be revised so that

commitment to achievable targets can be realised. Flexibility should therefore

be built into the INDC now so that the outcome of such revisions can still meet

SA’s commitments.

Summary

• The Mitigation Potential Analysis Study requires updating in order to determine what, and how

much, mitigation is still available to the South African economy without impacting economic

development

• The DEA/DST draft Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technology Implementation Plan Study mostly

reflects energy efficiency technology and energy itself as areas where mitigation can be achieved.

• The NCCRWP identifies energy generation and use (efficiency, demand management, intensity) as

being key to contribute to reduced emissions

• Many direct process emissions mitigation initiatives have already been undertaken

• Thus sufficient flexibility should be retained in the SA INDC for mitigation potential to be

reassessed and for the carbon space to be available when emissions are likely to peak

• CAIA acknowledges the DEA’s intention to investigate how further flexibility can be incorporated into

the SA INDC

Thank you