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1 Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts Thornton Group

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Page 1: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

Portfolio construction:

Duncan WiechDirector

Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd

20 October 2010

Key concepts

Thornton Group

Page 2: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

2

This information has been prepared by Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Limited (ABN 88 101 789 226) 60 Greenhill Road, Wayville, South Australia 5034.

This presentation contains general information only. This presentation was produced for informative purposes only without assuming a duty of care. It does not constitute financial advice and should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or professional advice.

This presentation does not take into account your particular objectives, needs or full financial situation. Before making a decision relating to this presentation you should assess whether the advice is appropriate to your objectives, needs or financial situation. You may wish to make this assessment yourself or seek the help of an adviser. No responsibility is taken for anyone acting on the information provided and anyone doing so, does so at their own risk.

No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. Should you wish to obtain personal advice regarding anything in this presentation please contact Anthony Prior on 8561 2400.

The information in this presentation is based on our interpretation of relevant laws as at the date of this presentation and is subject to change.

DisclaimerThornton Group

Page 3: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

RULE: oneUnderstand what you’re trying to achieve - not all portfolios are the same

1one

Thornton Group

Page 4: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

RULE: twoKnow your investment timeframe

2two

now

1 yr2 yrs

3 yrs 5 yrs10 yrs

Thornton Group

Page 5: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

RULE: threeUnderstand the trade-off betweenrisk and reward

3three

low

risk / r

eturn

high

Thornton Group

Page 6: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

6%

%chasing returns

Portfolio construction

%%

%%

%%

%%

%%

%%

%%

%

%

Historical Sector Returns as at 30 June of each year

Chasing returns

%

SOURCE: Lonsec, 30-06-10, "Annual Investment Returns to 30 June 2010"

%

Thornton Group

Page 7: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

7”“Portfolio construction

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

Warren Buffett

Thornton Group

Page 8: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Chasing returns

Risk Profiles Historical characteristics for the 10 year period to 30 June 2010

SOURCE: Lonsec 08-2010, “Risk Profiles: Historical Characteristics”

2010

Growth assets 60%Property : 12%International shares

: 14%Australian shares : 34%

Growth assets 80%Property : 12%International shares

: 20%Australian shares : 48%

Growth assets 100%Property : 10%International shares

: 30%Australian shares : 60%

Thornton Group

Page 9: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Growth stockwhat is it?

”“Stock of a company which is growing earnings and/or revenue faster than its industry or overall market.

Such companies usually pay little or no dividends, preferring to use the income to finance further expansion.

www.investorwords.com

Thornton Group

Page 10: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Propertywhat we look for

Diversified exposure achieved via: Managed funds, direct, indirect, listed, unlisted,

syndicated sectors

Factors considered: • debt structure• structure of cash flow / rental income• quality of tenant & level of tenancy• capital expenditure on the building• green & water ratings• regularity of valuations & timing of rent reviews• physical location of assets

Thornton Group

Page 11: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

International shareswhat we look forDiversified exposure achieved via: Managed funds

Factors considered: • preferred economies (mature or emerging)• managers with consistent performance in selected country• management of currency risk (hedged vs. unhedged)• absolute return funds - no index hugging!

Thornton Group

Page 12: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Australian shareswhat we look for

Australianshareswhat we look for

7Know when

to RUN

1Strength of domestic &

global economies

2Appealing

sectors

3Strength of companies

• barriers to entry• comparative

advantages

4Health of Balance Sheet

5

Reliability of cash flow & profit

6

Sector weightings

variable risks &

opportunities

Monetary policy

Media sentiment

Environmental factors

Legislative changes

Global influences

(trade policies / war)

Thornton Group

Page 13: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

what makes our market

Thornton Group

Page 14: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Example portfoliowhat we look for

example portfoliowhat we look for

Core stocks “long”

Spreads via listed managed funds & indices

“Un-lo

ved”

Trade stocks “short”

Takeover targets

Break-ups

Prospective

Thornton Group

Page 15: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Core stocksPopular picks

Core stocks “long”

Ausbil Aviva Fortis K2 Tyndall

Financials ANZ CBA ANZ ASX ANZ

CBA NAB CBA MQG CBA

MQG WBC NAB NAB

NAB WBC WBC Resources,

materialsBHP BHP BHP BHP BHP

RIO NCM RIO ORI

RIO RIOTransport,

Telecom, MediaAIO TLS - AIA NWS

NWS QAN TLS

Energy OSH STO -

Retail WES WOW WOW RFG -

JBHHealth, Biotech

- CSL CSL - -

PRY

Real estate - - - WDC LLC

Other (ins, cap goods) - QBE QBE CSR -

Thornton Group

Page 16: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

Growth stockswhat we look for

CBA BHP CSL

Thornton Group

Page 17: Portfolio construction: Duncan Wiech Director Thornton Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 20 October 2010 Key concepts

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Portfolio construction

RULE: fourIf it seems too good to be true...it usually is!

4four

Thornton Group

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Portfolio construction

Questions ???

??? ??

Thornton Group